 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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On the other hand, if the weather this summer is anything to go by we could have bucket loads of snow all over the shop. Do you think they'll all shut it with the doom-mongering then?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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One swallow does not make a Summer.
The overwhelming longterm trend is that the world is steadily melting.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Get into mountain biking. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Lizzard, nope, there's always been Jeremiahs.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Where there is a will, there is a way....think of all the previously untapped mountain ranges which will no doubt become more accesible....there is more to life than the Alps.....
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Only got as far as the first paragraph before needing to stop - spelling mistakes in the Times, whatever next!
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johnnyboy, you see that one often - can't think why. (Unless they are indeed holding court in a tearoom, in which case that's fair enough.)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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brian
brian
Guest
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johnnyboy, Lizzard, Lyons is actually the correct (if somewhat archaic) spelling of the name in English. See also Rheims and Marseilles.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
One swallow does not make a Summer.
The overwhelming longterm trend is that the world is steadily melting. |
Since the last Ice Age.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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That would be clever..price us all out of the market...
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You know it makes sense.
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brian
brian
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laundryman, Lizzard wasn't, unless I've misunderstood the tearoom reference. You may be right about johnnyboy. We need a 3rd umpire.
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Poster: A snowHead
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brian, ah, I see...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
| It’s not such a bad thing. Those of us without means but who love the Alps will once again relish the lonely silence as we trudge up the mountain trails on foot |
That last sentence tells us everything we need to know about the article and the author. Yet another anti-ski industry motivated bit of propganda dressed up as a global warming story!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Winterhighland wrote: |
| Quote: |
| It’s not such a bad thing. Those of us without means but who love the Alps will once again relish the lonely silence as we trudge up the mountain trails on foot |
That last sentence tells us everything we need to know about the article and the author. Yet another anti-ski industry motivated bit of propganda dressed up as a global warming story! |
I gave up before the end so missed that little gem. Reminds me of someone I know around here...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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laundryman, brian, Erm, I was on about "accomodation"; I'm not a regular reader of the Times, but I was surprised to see such an obvious error. Only skimmed the article after that because it seemed as though there was nothing new in it anyway - low resorts will often suffer poor snow, and increasingly so in the future, but we'll throw in a bit of scaremongering to make a story.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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As I challenged someone else, let us see if in the next ten years we do not get better snow than this season. Then the arsehol*s might have got it right, if however the snow is better thant January 07 will they please just shut up!
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| Roy Hockley wrote: |
| As I challenged someone else, let us see if in the next ten years we do not get better snow than this season. Then the arsehol*s might have got it right, if however the snow is better thant January 07 will they please just shut up! |
Nope. One swallow doesn't make a summer! However, one bad winter does make the apocolypse.
Whitegold, Alpine Wintersports are already way too expensive for the masses in your mind - didn't you quote 2 months in a Landrover in the Alps at £10k or some other princely sum recently
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Guvnor wrote: |
| Where there is a will, there is a way....think of all the previously untapped mountain ranges which will no doubt become more accesible....there is more to life than the Alps..... |
but isn't that the Times chappies point... there will still be skiing but there will be less cheap skiing on your doorstep therefore it will be more elitist. Still I think a house price crash and a dose of negative equitity on over mortgaged Brits will do more to make ski holidays inaccessible than global warming , at least in the near term.
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davidof, that does indeed sound more like the sort of thing the industry needs to be worrying about this week.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Lizzard wrote: |
| davidof, that does indeed sound more like the sort of thing the industry needs to be worrying about this week. |
with oil a $78 today, floods, stock market jitters and Gordon Brown's less than steady hand on the tiller (remember this is the guy that promised to make "house price inflation a thing of the past" back in 1997) and the MPC meeting tomorrow it is the kind of thing that concerns me anyway.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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davidof, I'm struggling to get to grips with:
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laundryman,
Its the long awaited British reduction of calorific intake causing a fall in bra sizes.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| chris wrote: |
| www.propertysnake.co.uk/ is quite interesting. |
Yes it is, I'd heard of it but never looked at the website. Thanks for posting the link. NI doesn't look good does it?
I'm sure the Times, or maybe Daily Mail would love the angle "House Price Crash ends traditional ski holiday" - watch this space. If there is a HPC expect one of the big T.O.s to go under.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Quote: |
if however the snow is better thant January 07 will they please just shut up!
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There are two propositions kicking about here:
a. we are in a period of very rapid climate change with warming attributable to an extent never seen before to human activity.
b. last winter's lack of snow in the Alps means that the ski industry is about to wither away.
It is fairly easy to refute the more doom mongering versions of the second proposition but there are now very few pundits worth listening to who would refute the first. Whitegold keeps getting leapt on because of his harping on the second proposition, which is indeed boring and annoying, but that doesn't mean he is wrong about the first one! A snowy winter will no more prove him wrong on that than another very snowless one would prove him right. Whatever happens to the snow next winter it will provide neither side of the argument with the evidence they need for a chorus of "I told you so"s. As for the last two very wet months in the UK, which have no precedent since reliable records began, they seem to be a more reliable indicator that something is up than the pretty run-of-the-mill poor snow season in 2006/7.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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pam w, although I seem to recall - re the UKs wet weather - a senior politico (Maybe even G Broon?) saying, "this weather is a once in 150 year event and the last time we saw it was 60 years ago".
You can have lies, damn lies and statistics, but getting the stats bit hopelessly wrong is just too pathetic for words... lies at least make more superficial sense...
Your comment "no precedent since reliable records began" is about right. It has been a long time since the recently discovered catastrophic flood that created the English channel and diverted the major river systems of Western Europe...undated but some thought maybe 200,000 years ago.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
this weather is a once in 150 year event and the last time we saw it was 60 years ago
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There's nothing inherently wrong with that statement. It's the way probability works. The fact that you might toss a coin and get three heads in a row doesn't mean that the probability of a head or a tail isn't 50/50. The fact that a kind of flood occurs twice in 60 years doesn't necessarily mean it's not a 150 year event. Though, of course, long term climate change does mean re-working the flood probabilities, once there is enough evidence to do so.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
this weather is a once in 150 year event and the last time we saw it was 60 years ago
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There's nothing inherently wrong with that statement. It's the way probability works. |
Exactly, for example:
| Montroc Avalanche wrote: |
It should be remembered that a 150 year event does not mean that an avalanche of that magnitude will occur only once every 150 years but that there is a 1/150 chance that such an event will occur in any year. For longer periods the following formula can be used:
Probability % = 1 – (1/T)L
Where T is the return period and L is the number of years. So for a thirty year period there is an 18% chance of seeing a 150 year avalanche.
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I wouldn't try and argue against climate change but there does now seem to be an expectation from some skiing and boarding holidaymakers that every week of every season will be gloriously snowy and if it isn't someting has gone wrong. Thats not how it works. In my 25 years + of skiing there have always been good and bad seasons and good and bad weeks.
I won't be rushing to prebook a trip to anywhere under 2000m for 25 years time but for the moment perhaps we should all chill out a bit (no pun intended) and enjoy any time we get in the mountains?
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Back to the point, let us see (over a relativley short time period 10 years) if we get 10 more years like the beginning of December 2007. If we do, I would believe the "accepted pundits" assertion that we are all banjaxed! Probability will possibly show that we will have years as good as December 2000-2006. No scientific evidence for this, just a belief.
At the end of the 10 year period we shall see. At least until then "half empty" brigade will have the decency to wait and observe and not give the more hopeful in society an endless supply of slurry! 10 years not listening to cr*p will be worth me eating humble pie in 2017.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I strongly believe that all children should be taught statistics and probability at school. That way they would be better placed when they grew up to assess what the media and politicians were telling them. For that matter, there might be a fighting chance that the media and the politicians themselves understood what they were saying.
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brian
brian
Guest
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achilles, that's the national lottery well and truly knackered !
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FAQ
) this season gone means everyone will be watching like a hawk this winter.
