 Poster: A snowHead
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|The Met office have published their experimental long range prediction for winter 2007/8 (December - March) based on a model of North Atlantic Oscillation.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/regional/nao/index.html
They expect a weakly negative NAO which should mean weaker westerlies and therefore the possibility of more northerlies and easterlies, which tend to be good news for the eastern highlands and to a lesser extent the north pennines. However it could also mean warm southerlies!
On average negative NAO means cooler weather in northern europe. At least they expect it to be cooler and drier than last winter but warmer overall than the 30 year average 1971 - 2000.
However in southern europe it may not be great news since a negative NAO tends to be associated with wamer and wetter winters. That could be good news for high resorts but less welcome for low or southerly stations.
However the METO warn that this method isn't accurate and last year their early prediction of an average winter was later changed to a warmer than average winter and that is certainly what we got.
Its probably too earlyto book a holiday on the strength of this information but in the UK at least the signs are more encouraging for at least some good skiing before next March. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I think it's also encouraging that after an long run of above average months, some absurdly so like April, that the CET (Central England Temperature Index) is currently 1.5c BELOW average for July. This summer might suck as far as summers go, but it's good to see that temperatures can be below average after a winter where the temperature flat-lined at absurdly above average levels.
I'd hazzard a Guess that the highest temperature in the North and Central Highlands this year remains those recorded at the end of April! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Winterhighland, I remember sunbathing in the garden in April and noticing that the trees had no leaves! Not been warm and sunny enough to do that since.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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^ Yup, it now seems absurdly cool but I'd hazard we'll see some hotter days in August - it can't go on like this can it!?!
Oh well, at least those highland snowpatches might survive through to winter 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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They just don't know what's going to happen.
I sat through a presentation in May about predicted gas prices through the summer, as well as gas flows from Norway to the continent etc. there was a section from weather experts for the summer ahead...remember this was May...and they were still predicting above average temperatures and below average rainfall for the summer months of June, July and August .
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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But in scotland june was 0.8C above average (the 61-90 average). Though I have noticed a remarkably large amount of winds with a northerly component here in aberdeen over this none summer - presumably if we'd had similar synoptics over the winter we'd be having great skiing conditions?
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| Quote: |
| Yet again people felt it was cool but the temperatures were actually still nearly a degree above the long-term averages |
WWF spouting off IMO, because such an overcast month actually has a high probablity of being above average in temperature stakes because it kills the diurnal range. The day time max temperatures haven't been above normal, indeed the max daytime temperature recorded in June i'd suspect is pretty poor for the North of Scotland.
The Long, Hot and Dry summer of 2006 was down to Global warming and this was what the models show, the Big Flood summer of 2007 is down to Global Waming and is consistent with the models. They can't be wrong can they when everything is down to global warming. Basically Get to  !
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For scotland from the metoffice June was 0.8C above the long term average, but the june average max temperature was over 1C below the longterm average and the sunshien was exceptionally below average for NE scotland. Still hoping for a good winter this year.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Winterhighland, climate change.. global warming is sooo last hot summer
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Just been talking to Barry Grommet at the Met Office. He's warned that the areas most affected by the NAO, for which the latest prediction has been made, are northern and eastern Europe. It still affects the UK and western Europe, but the impact is likely to be less pronounced.
La Nina is suddenly looking less likely now too...Just posted a short item about it at http://www.welove2ski.com/jsp/index.jsp?lnk=201&id=28
And thanks, Peter S, for the heads up!!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Thanks Sean.
Something more positive to think about during this miserable summer.
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