 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Chris Brookes, my bunions are aching which usually means that it will snow like thunder - but only in Wengen - hope this helps.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Feb 2007 could be a watershed for the snowsports industry
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the main forecaster on the French version of snowheads, skipass.com (who is generally pretty good) reckons that on average February will be dry and slightly warmer than average, but not dramatically so. But he has also stressed that this forecast is "balance of probabilities" and, like all long range forecasts, not to be relied upon. But it has been looking like that for a while. February 2007 could well be a watershed for this season's prospects for the snowsports industry and possibly (hopefully) another wake up call on global warming. But to write off the entire industry on the basis of the sort of crummy conditions which happen from time to time (even if they might happen more often in future) is a touch melodramatic.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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'If we can keep the cold its good news but a sense of realism has to come soon that we to address climate change.
Feb 2007 could be a watershed for the snowsports industry. '
So how does last year fit in to this theory with record snowfall???
One bad year does not make it a crisis!!!
I know the media like to make it so. There has been other bad years in the Alps the early 1980's for example. Last year America didn't do very well but the Alps did this year the reverse is true.
What is happening is just weather!! There will be good years and bad years that is just how the climate is.
Nigel
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Even the experts say that climate change is responsible for a 1 degree temperature rise....how could that explain the start of this season?.
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how could that explain the start of this season?.
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climate change can't "explain" anything in the short term. The fact that January has been very warm does not "prove" climate change, any more than last year's very cold January "disproves it". In the short term it is, indeed, just "weather". Over the next 20 or 30 years it is highly probable that more glaciers will melt, and that lower ski resorts will struggle. But within that long term scenario it is just as likely that the next three years are thumping seasons with plenty of snow. But extremely small long term temperature changes, for example in the ocean depths, can have vast effects on climate - for example the el nino phenomenon, where very slight changes in ocean temperatures can cause droughts and deaths and landslides. But to try to find an explanatory relationship between one warm January and "climate change" is a mistake.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Although the intermediate affects of climate change might actually be good news for skiing in Europe - although bad news for Europe in general.
If one begins to see the melting of the glaciers in Greenland, the Gulf Stream will slowly grind to a halt. This will send Europe into a deep freeze. Picture London England having the same temps as, say Canada at the southern tip of Hudson Bay.
That is where it lies from a latitude perspective. It has warmer temps largely due to the affects of the Gulf Stream bringing warmer water up into the northern Atlantic ocean.
I shudder to think of what happens to some of the worlds great cities when, at least in the intermediate term, they are plunged into a deep freeze.
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the Gulf Stream will slowly grind to a halt...
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I shudder to think of what happens to some of the worlds great cities when, at least in the intermediate term, they are plunged into a deep freeze.
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From what little I know I understand that that is just one possible scenario. It is more a case of "if" rather than "when" cities like Liverpool or London are plunged into a deep freeze. But I think it's also true to say that ocean current changes can happen rather quickly, in climatological terms - just look at el nino which develops over a few months.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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The last two years my biggest problem with snow has been that there was too much. Lifts were closed and I struggled to get to certain resorts (even with winter tyres and chains) because of too much snow. Resorts that have 50cm now had 500cm this time last year.
Certain parts of America are struggling just as bad as Europe and I know from speaking to people on Epicski over the last few years that Europe often has snow when America struggles. One bad season doesn't change the whole system.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| pam w wrote: |
| From what little I know I understand that that is just one possible scenario. It is more a case of "if" rather than "when" cities like Liverpool or London are plunged into a deep freeze. But I think it's also true to say that ocean current changes can happen rather quickly, in climatological terms - just look at el nino which develops over a few months. |
I agree. One of the things that makes me a sceptic(*) about "climate change" is that the body of instant "experts" who have jumped on the bandwagon doesn't know if Britain is going to get much warmer or much colder - just that it's going to get much worse.
(*) I use "sceptic" in the (proper) sense of questioning, rather than in the sense of disbelieving outright.
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Chris Brookes, The collective answer to your post, after compiling all of the above posts is...
No.
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You know it makes sense.
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| DB wrote: |
| One bad season doesn't change the whole system. |
Exactly. Its a bad start to the season. Next year will probably be OK again.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I hope next year is ok................i have already booked a late december trip to alpe d'huez!!!!! Any predictions welcome.
Here's mine, some snow, great time, book again!!!!!!!!!!
As for sceptics of GW..........have you not yet seen The day after tomorrow? thats the scariest documentary ever.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Quote: |
| From what little I know I understand that that is just one possible scenario. It is more a case of "if" rather than "when" cities like Liverpool or London are plunged into a deep freeze. But I think it's also true to say that ocean current changes can happen rather quickly, in climatological terms - just look at el nino which develops over a few months. |
Actually, the current thinking is that (a) there has been no slowdown and (b) the projected slowdown (probably beyond 2050) will be far more offset by warming and so the UK will experience a net warming rather than cooling. There is a chance of a rapid change, but this is currently considered low to unquantified. There is evidence to suggest that reductions in the various currents involved (see link below as to the naming) have caused climatic events and contributed towards the Little Ica Age that parts of the northern hemisphere experienced a couple of hundred years ago. The IPCC AR4 will also cover it in two weeks time. It is one of the areas where there are big gaps in the understanding, but where there is new research being carried out and recent findings that are very interesting (see http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/rapid/rapid.php). It's definitely an area to watch, even if for purely academic reasons.
Lots of info here under the Oceans section (most recent at the bottom). The El Nino one is a good summary, too and explains how it's different to the changes discussed here.
As for one season indicating climate change, that is the wrong approach. Climate (as opposed to climate drivers) consists of weather averages so it can only change if the averages change (due to a change in the drivers). No single event can demonstrate climate change, but climate change can be a driver to increase the probability of those events - but that still requires a long-term view. Occurrences of very low probability events (high sigma?) are worth noting, but again you need more than one to come any conclusions. If a season matches the predictions made about the changes expected from global warming, then you can notch one to the models that are being used to make the regional and seasonal predictions....also, it doesn't back the fact that the globe is warming, the global temperature trend is doing that, but it does back the models used to try and predict the outcome of that warming and then you need a shift in the averages to say that those models are right.
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brian
brian
Guest
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Well the model seems to have got January pretty wrong so far in terms of precipitation though temp looks spot on...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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brian, thanks for posting those. If I am interpreting them correctly then it would appear that the rest of the winter in the French and Swiss Alps are likely to be marginally colder and wetter then the 20yr average. Sounds OK if borne out
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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brian, just wondering if you have a link for that data, would be interesting to see how it pans out and what amendments they make as time goes on
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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BGA, I was going to ask the same thing, but then remembered that the images are from links. So just bookmark the image URLs. Of course, if there's any text associated you'll need to find the wrapping pages.
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brian
brian
Guest
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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frostynutz, Spoke a bit too soon eh? Seems to be reports of snow cropping up all over Europe today
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| kosciosco wrote: |
| frostynutz, Spoke a bit too soon eh? Seems to be reports of snow cropping up all over Europe today |
I haven't seen the figures, so could well be wrong, but I doubt today & tomorrow's amounts will be enough to push the total above the 20 year average.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| kosciosco wrote: |
| frostynutz, Spoke a bit too soon eh? Seems to be reports of snow cropping up all over Europe today |
Guess you're right - I'd forgotten it's only 23rd Jan!
I think I've been getting a bit carried away with the GFS runs for the next week or so which don't look very snowy (other than today or tomorrow of course...) Hope all the snowheads out there enjoy all that light and dry pow!
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FAQ
