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Free 16 day forecasts for the non GFS-literate

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ski;sess=

Apologies if this has posted before. I just hope it comes true for the Southern Alps snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nice, thanks Smile
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
If we all close our eyes and BELIEVE!!!! snowHead
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Doesn't seem to list Verbier. Have they moved it out of Switzerland again?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
JimiHendrix, I like your forecast the best - it gives Andorra a bucketful - just shows how different organisations see things going. Hopefully the high pressure will move 200 miles east over the weekend and give us the snow predicted on this site.
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(Torrential) snow

Is that good? Toofy Grin
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I thought that metcheck was optomistic, but netweather is giving prolonged snow for Livigno for the next 2 weeks.
Heading there on the 10th Feb, can't wait

http://metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/snow.asp
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Oooooh....snow for Morzine at last, most of next week and well into our holiday! Yippee!!! Thank you JimiHendrix you've made my day.....now I just have to keep my fingers crossed that it's all going to come true!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
I like that site. Showing some big dumps and much colder temps coming for the SkiWelt Very Happy
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This site seems to be showing much better snow levels for everywhere! snowHead

Lets just hope that this is the definitive forecasting site... LONG LIVE NETWEATHER!!!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Thanks for the link JimiHendrix, here's hoping their forecasts come through. Another snowdance then... snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
sorry mate but that site couldn't get it more wrong if it tried for serre chevalier.

it says its raining all day.

i look out the window and i see.

blue skies and sunshine!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
It does sound a bit optimistic but im not complaining if it turns out to be true. Funny how different sites give different predictions. I must have checked over a dozen so far in the hope of some consistency, i should just leave it to the gods and get some work done, im becoming obsessed now.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Well, it's pretty much the best site for UK weather IMO.

They don't seem to have done any specific adaption for ski forecasts (e.g. "torrential" snow, snow precipitation in "mm of rain", no idea of what altitude the forecast is for) but then again it's 16 days, for free, without plugging in co-ordinates and calculating the area under graph lines.

Maybe by next season they'll have adapted in to something very cool.....which they'll probably charge for!

I'm with you on leaving it to the gods punts. I remember school ski trips 20 years ago where no-one had a clue about the conditions until the coach rolled up in the resort. But once you get to checking, it's hard to stop!
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 brian
brian
Guest
The underlying data is once again, the GFS, same as snow-forecast, metcheck, TWO, etc. etc. but it looks like they've added some kind of multiplier to the precip amounts, unless they've just put the decimal point in the wrong place ...

Anyway, they seem just a tad overestimated, over 300cm in Zermatt on Tuesday, I think not !
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Good find. Let's hope it's right!! wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Doesnt this site predict the depth of snow rather than rainfall ?


So if it shows 30 mm - thats the expected snow depth ?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
brian, Smokin Joe, I think I've finally worked out the source of confusion.

Yes, depths are in mm not cm, and it is the expected snow depth, not rainfall to convert yourself.

The problem is that when after 5 days or so you just get 2 readings per 24 hours, these are still 3 hour snapshots. So they're not summed to 12 hours as you might expect. This explains why "60mm" in a day counts as heavy snow.

I've dropped them an email to suggest this fairly obvious improvement
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JimiHendrix, well its more accurate for today and i so hope its right. would be seriously ace!

everything crossed!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Hi all, just thought I'd drop in and introduce myself, it's good to see people making use of the new ski/snowboard forecasts on netweather.

They're something we're really keen to develop further (and will always keep a free version of these whatever happens), so any feedback you have on what we can do to make them better, or resorts that need adding, please let me know.

At the moment the system is fairly basic, as you've seen - we were hoping to bring in height specific forecasts for each resort (ie village, mid and top of the mountain), but time beat us (it's a heck of a job collecting all the data), but by next year we'll certainly have that in there.

Like I say, I'm really keen to here from you to find out what you'd like to see in there and what we can do to improve them, so please feel free to email me, drop me a pm or post in here (if that's ok with the team on here).

Cheers

Paul
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Sorry, double post - managed to miss the posts above about the precip amounts - basically what we've done is multiply by 10 when the precip is shown as snow, as a general rule 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow, so we have used that initially. It's another thing we're looking to hone as we go forward.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Paul - Netweather, welcome to snowHeads snowHead

It's good to see a bit of optimism for snow Madeye-Smiley
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Paul - Netweather, welcome to snowHeads! snowHead

Can we have some more snow, please? Toofy Grin
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Paul - Netweather, You do realise that you will be the scapegoat if nothing comes Very Happy Toofy Grin
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Thanks for the welcome Very Happy

And yep Stevo - fingers crossed that doesn't happen though Laughing
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Paul - Netweather, hey welcome!

i so hope your right with your forecsts!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Paul - Netweather, welcome, its great to find a free 16 day forecast. Very Happy
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
welcome to snowheads Paul, it's great to see your site up and running. one question - how accurate do you think a 16 day forecast can be? how quickly does the accuracy decrease after three days Puzzled Puzzled This isn'd a dig at you - i@m genuinely interested.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Paul - Netweather, welcome to snowHead 's

Please keep it free !!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
well guys today it does look like it might be snowing on the cucamel, and netweather says un peu de neige!

but the best news is,


every weather site i use says snow for serre che starting tomorrow afternoon! GET IN!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Thanks again for the welcomes Smile

Brian T wrote:
welcome to snowheads Paul, it's great to see your site up and running. one question - how accurate do you think a 16 day forecast can be? how quickly does the accuracy decrease after three days Puzzled Puzzled This isn'd a dig at you - i@m genuinely interested.


Hi Brian, you're right in what you're thinking - clearly a forecast at 16 days in advance is a lot less likely to be accurate than a forecast at 2 days in advance.

If you're looking for specifics - ie how heavy and what times and precip will be, then 3 days is a pretty good place to stop at, between 3 and 6 days I'd say it's very likely that the forecast will have a good handle on the general theme of the weather for each day, but expect changes in the finer details.

Beyond that, and particularly beyond 10 days it's more a case of looking for general trends in the forecasts and seeing how much the forecasts tend to chop and change on each update - sometimes a trend can be nailed down at a long range. As an example from the UK - the storm which affected the country last week was forecast by the GFS some 12 of so days in advance. The finer details changed of course, but the general theme was always there (ie it was going to be very windy for england and wales).

Sometimes of course there's a lot of uncertainty at the longer ranges, so if you're seeing the forecasts dramatically change between each update then it's best to hold judgement until some sort of trend develops Smile

HTH

Paul
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I was looking at the longer-range forecast for Courchevel, coz we're going there on 27th. There is another thing you have to be careful of as well as the mm/cm thing - that is it forecasts rain and warm temperatures w/b 29th, but also gives the freezing level at 1100m. This is confusing - if the freezing level is 1100m, or 1500m or lower than 1850, then you would expect the precipitation to be snow or at least sleet, and the air temperature to be lower than +5! At least I'm hoping this is the case - last thing we want is rain to wash away the nice dump forecast for this week Sad
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Paul - Netweather, thanks for posting on here
Smile
Quote:

Like I say, I'm really keen to here from you to find out what you'd like to see in there and what we can do to improve them, so please feel free to email me, drop me a pm or post in here (if that's ok with the team on here).

Pulling stuff out of this thread it would be really good to have:
- the forecasts beyond the next week either broken down to 3 hour segments or just summed up to 12 hours
- snow amounts perhaps in cm not mm
- Verbier added
- as per docsquid's post there seem to be a few anomalies with
Freezing Level+Temperature+Rain/Snow not being consistent, perhaps because the altitude of the resort you're using is wrong?
- It would be good to add what altitude the forecast is for.

For the future:
-top/middle/bottom as you say would be great
- I like a nice graph of snowfall, freezing level etc.

But the main point is that it's brilliant to have very accessible free 16 day forecasts. That's the main selling point against other sites so it's important to keep some sort of 16-day forecast free.
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Thanks JH - just going through your points one by one:

- the forecasts beyond the next week either broken down to 3 hour segments or just summed up to 12 hours

This is already done - the raw data changes after 180 hours to 12 hourly intervals, so what you see is a summary of that period.

- snow amounts perhaps in cm not mm

That's simple enough to do - will have a look at doing it.

- Verbier added

Done this evening - forecast will be online at about 11pm ish. (will show an error until that update)

- as per docsquid's post there seem to be a few anomalies with
Freezing Level+Temperature+Rain/Snow not being consistent, perhaps because the altitude of the resort you're using is wrong?

At the moment we use the raw height data from the GFS itself - so it's an averaged height of the grid box that the location is in. By next year we'll definitely have the whole height thing sorted - we do it with our UK forecasts already so it will be a case of getting the data for the ski resorts and plugging it into the system. Only time contraints stopped us doing it last year.

As for the anmoalies with the various parameters, I'm not sure it's all pulled direct from the GFS - including the snow forecast. Again in the UK we tailor the data a little, so we will be looking to do more than just present the raw stuff next year - which should tighten everything up a bit.

- It would be good to add what altitude the forecast is for.

Yes, we may be able to do this, will look into it.

For the future:
-top/middle/bottom as you say would be great

Defo on the list of to-do's

- I like a nice graph of snowfall, freezing level etc.

We looked at a few graphic options this time but again ran out of time, we should have something along these lines for next year.

But the main point is that it's brilliant to have very accessible free 16 day forecasts. That's the main selling point against other sites so it's important to keep some sort of 16-day forecast free.

Cheers - and you can be sure that we'll definitely continue to carry free versions of the 16 dayers Smile

Paul
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Paul - Netweather, Daft question, but how do I enter your site to see snow forecasts for France?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
Just goto this page, select france and then the resort you want the forecast for Smile

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ski;sess=
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Paul - Netweather, Thanks.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Paul - Netweather, im confused, if it says 60mm of precipitation, can i expect 60cm of snow or 6cm?
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I'd say 60mm = 6cm.
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johnnyh, yeah, thats what i think it is, i just got confused by the posts above Neh Neh
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