 brian
brian
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Well, nothing doing for a week or so at least, but out in FI a glimmer of hope appears !
Headline summary: colder snowy weather could sweep in from the NW in about 10 days time.
Weather babble (if anyone's interested): Last night's ECM has been backed up by the latest GFS in shifting the horrible mild HP sitting over Western Europe off out to to West towards the azores. The weather stays zonal but the track of low pressure is polar maritime (NW to SE) rather than the tropical air we've been subjected to recently and fronts get to the alps with a bit of beef about them rather than fizzling out on the Euro HP.
Still miles out so minimal confidence but at least it's a trend to watch for ....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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brian, sounds like it will get to you first - keep us posted! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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brian, good spot. ECMWF has had that for a couple of runs now (I noticed it yesterday but there was no agreement from GFS so I discounted it).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Dave Horsley's pictures of Arabba look v.nice, which is where we're going in 1 month!
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Oi! that's my straw leave it alone 
Cheers,
Greg (departing for Engelberg on the 19th.........)
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What a great thread title brian. Guaranteed to get everyone clicking and clutching....there'll be a lot of grass around by 19 January.
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brian
brian
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brian
brian
Guest
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It's rolling as we speak, the ensembles come out after the operational charts.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Yeah, I've been watching it roll out with a wistful smile and a glass of wine, not wanting to let it see I've spotted it, lest it gets shy and legs it again. Wait for the 00z to blow all hope out of the water again... 
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brian
brian
Guest
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So the 00z ECM seems to largely stick to its guns, 00z GFS is a bit of a mess but the Euro High does break down eventually (and ends with a full blown NE'ly over Scotland, I'll be digging my car out the drive if that comes off ).
So the models do seem to want to shift the high, is the straw I'm still clutching at !
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You know it makes sense.
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ECM has been pretty consistent for Thursday for a couple of days now. GFS 00z still playing around a bit but the ensembles now look a lot better off. Sniff the air,...can you smell that? There's a pattern change in the air. I hope it affects the Alps and not just northern Europe.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Damn! now it looks like there might be snow on the horizon, I'll have to start worrying about whether it will be easy to drive up to the resort, and then all the lifts will be closed because the ava risk will be through the roof
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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all these threads hitting a positive note need this:
ANTIJINX
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| skanky wrote: |
| ECM has been pretty consistent for Thursday for a couple of days now. |
Excellent, that's when I'm in Les Arcs next  More forecasts like this please...
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I LIKE this thread! 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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brian, when does it look like the high will break down ?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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brian
brian
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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skanky, me too
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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12z ECMWF straw's still there.
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im a bit slow...please explain it me. Am i right in reading the weather over the Alps 'could' be changing around the 19/20 Jan ??
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You know it makes sense.
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Chris Brookes,
Thanks, was thinking I was missing the plot here  are the models saying that last week in Jan is looking good??
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Chris Brookes, Scooter, there's a suggestion - it's still a way out - that things will get better. As to how good, it's too far for details. But 19th/20th onwards is the date that we're looking at. If the models start to move it back a day or so, then I'll worry about it. Basically the jet stream looks lie it will move further south. This should bring cooler air further south as (to simplify) you tend to get cooler air to its north and warmer air to its south. It means that when the low pressure systems move through, they will have more chance of pushing the high, pressure that's causing the problems over the Alps, away to the south.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I don't want to come on all northwestfaceish about this, but doesn't it look like the date is going back a bit ? The GFS this morning didn't look too pretty and even the other one looked like saturday rather than the friday as it had been.
Of course, I'm depressed because I'm going on the 20th, and I really need it all to change like NOW !
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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GFS has put it back slightly, but we'll need a few more runs to see if it's just guessing. ECMWF hasn't changed much - the charts are 24hrly so if you compare 12z with 00z you're comparing charts 12hrs apart, so the 18th 12z is actually midday on 18th and 18 00z is midnight on 17th. Thus it may look like it's gone back a day, when it's more or less the same. I am also keeping an eye on the ridge building behind the low pressure on the 21st. Looks like a "toppler" (one that looks like it "topples" over to the right and thus only brings one day of cold weather), but even a day or two of cold weather here and there will help the pistes stand up to any heat in between.
I'm *cautiously* optimistic about it at the moment.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| skanky wrote: |
I'm *cautiously* optimistic about it at the moment. |
for a complete change or a day or two change when it happens 
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Chris Brookes, once the high pressure gets moved it may return, or it may open up to allow more NWlies through. No idea which, but you need that initial whatever happens, and if it's just the former it at least brings some snowfalls - which keep things going a bit longer until we get a longer pattern change.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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skanky, very true, fingers X
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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please keep us updated
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brian
brian
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I'm also cautiously optimistic. If you look at the GFS ensembles for the last few runs, it's been a bit uncertain about the timing of the high budging, so that moving about is not a big concern yet. The trend of it happening is fairly encouraging. As skanky notes elsewhere, ECM has been consistent on this for several runs now.
I wouldn't normally have started a thread on something so far out, but there is good agreement between the 2 models and I thought we could use a positive vibe
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I love positive vibes...keep them coming 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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brian, yes please. We will understand, and forgive you, if it all goes haywire in the next few days...
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FAQ
but for the moment I'm still hopeful 
