 Poster: A snowHead
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Lets say that by half way through Feb we still haven't got the settled cold that is needed to sustain resorts what will be the outcome? Will resorts simply shut down? How can the higher resorts cope with the number of extra skiers?
This concern about lack of cold weather was started in later October and I have even ditched my winter coat as its simply too warm to wear in London today.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I expect the biggest economic impact to be that hundreds of millions of people (and their businesses) throughout Western Europe will be consuming less fuel than usual.
Somebody did mention here a couple of weeks ago that a high resort was trying to deter bussed in visitors from lower resorts.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Economic impact?
i) Resorts shut all or part of their domains - already happening in the Massif Central, Vosges, Jura, Southern Alpes and Pyrenees
ii) Snow canons have to be run more, have a smaller window of opportunity (night) and the snow melts faster. Water gets used up and less is available for domestic and agricultural use (we already have a drop in pressure)
iii) Resorts spend more money on running expensive man made snow making
iv) Season workers get laid off which means they sign onto the unemployment register
v) Resorts ask for government help which is promised and never arrives
vi) some smaller resorts with already unsound finances go bust, others have enough fat from the previous 5 years of good conditions
vii) some resorts wind up operations in the future as their lifts come up for replacement
viii) some tourists decide they'll never go on another winter holiday
ix) ???
x) more $$$ for the CdA as people desert small resorts
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| laundryman wrote: |
Somebody did mention here a couple of weeks ago that a high resort was trying to deter bussed in visitors from lower resorts. |
Avoriaz has a 25k lift pass limit over Christmas
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Resorts have had it good (to good) for many many year. They have had it all one-way ripping off customers in Hotels, Restaurants etc.
I hope this will be a wake-up call.
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On another slant I'm wondering what will happen to foreign investors who have bought places in the Alps. It's never been assured or guaranteed that the winters will be cold and snowy for the full season but I think many people do kind of expect this to be the case. If the resorts begin to 'wind up' operations as davidof, suggests I wonder what that means for the property owners? I can see that in the last few years the emphasis from the tourism office/associations has begun to swing towards summer time a little bit more and other outdoor events such as mountain biking, paragliding, walking etc. so maybe this is the way things will go? Food for thought though.
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I must say that the mountains are beautiful and under-uesd in the summer. When I tried to advertise my apartments in Val Thorens, though, a number of years back, I received very few enquiries, so gave up on the idea. And that was when summer ski-ing was still available there on 2 glaciers. A pity really.
I must also say that I can remenber poor winters previously, but that was mainly due to a lack of precipitaion, and not due to high temps. At least what snow there was lasted with the low temps. This year, though, these mild days in January are the real killers - I just had a look at the Morzine and Montalbert webcams, and they make for very depressing viewing, looking look more like April or May than Jan.
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| MrDan wrote: |
| If the resorts begin to 'wind up' operations as davidof, suggests I wonder what that means for the property owners? I can see that in the last few years the emphasis from the tourism office/associations has begun to swing towards summer time a little bit more and other outdoor events such as mountain biking, paragliding, walking etc. so maybe this is the way things will go? Food for thought though. |
Haven't most British investors bought in the big resorts with access to higher altitude skiing? In the short to medium term their properties may actually go up in value.
Christmas wasn't too bad for most ski resorts - 65 - 80% occupancy which is pretty good any year. As long as it snows enough before February the resorts and businesses should manage okay. It is season workers who have been badly hit in France.
The big ski resorts may draw the conclusion that they need even more snowmaking and access to high altitude areas which will bring them into conflict with a wide range of groups from ecologists to farmers.
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another thought - great year for ski makers as we all have to renew the kit we wrecked on rocky slopes and a good year for hospitals, piste rescue etc with all the accidents on rock hard and icy man made snow
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stephen buck, I agree with you totally about the summer and go there as much as possible because it is so nice and quiet. As with you though, not as much interest from others for renting during the summer. davidof, good point about the potential conflict with the ecologists for sure. I'm assuming the intensive use of water for snow making will make a bad situation worse. I'm not all doom and gloom though, it is still early days this season and not exactly a precident of being the worst year ever. We're due an iceage aren't we? You just never know 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Robbof
Problem is the ground is to warm for snow to settle/bond to greatly increases avalanche risk on & off piste. Piste also do not last very long on warm ground they break up.
In the Arlberg thelast 3 weeks you coulod clearly hear all the stream running below/beside the pistes.
There has been no cold period this season for the ground the freeze, normally this takes place in October, November.
It is VERY unlikely this will happen now.
There may be big dumps (The biggest snowfalls are normally in March & April) but dont expect it to last long.
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Next year will be the interesting one. Anybody that's had a ruined ski/board holiday this year will be thinking very hard next year before taking out their credit card. Economically, I expect to see more hotel/chalet vacancies early/late season, and more expensive vacations mid-season.
I'll seriously be considering to pre-book/pay for my main vacation in a more "snow sure" resort mid-season, and then book annual leave and a ticket to GVA for that 1st week in Jan where bargains can be had much easier. Certainly seems a sensible plan. Even if insurance does pay out for lost/ruined holiday, it doesn't give me back 5 days' annual leave!
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You know it makes sense.
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In the Tarantaise at least, there is much more snow at this time than there was last year. However the PDS is having a bad year. It seems that altitude is the be all and end all this year. It also looks as the though the long range forecasts for a wet and mild winter issued back in the summer were correct.
In answer to the question they'll presumably just have to adapt as indeed the Scottish centres have had to.
Perhaps its time to start teaching our children how to sail rather than ski, sailing would seem to have a much more reliable future.
In the meantime we'll just get on and continue to consume their oil and gas just as fast as we can and grab as much skiing as we can, whilst we can. 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| andy wrote: |
Next year will be the interesting one. Anybody that's had a ruined ski/board holiday this year will be thinking very hard next year before taking out their credit card. Economically, I expect to see more hotel/chalet vacancies early/late season, and more expensive vacations mid-season.
I'll seriously be considering to pre-book/pay for my main vacation in a more "snow sure" resort mid-season, and then book annual leave and a ticket to GVA for that 1st week in Jan where bargains can be had much easier. Certainly seems a sensible plan. Even if insurance does pay out for lost/ruined holiday, it doesn't give me back 5 days' annual leave! |
Funny enough Mr C and I were just discussing that! I think for next year's Jan hols we'll book the week off work in good time but then leave it to last minute to see where the snow is & get a late deal.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| micksup wrote: |
Hmmm Peter, agreed!!! And only yesteday someone plainly doubted that it was possible to forecast a week ahead let alone as season  |
Its maybe easier to forecast a season ahead. So far both the Met office and French peasants are right and didn't the Met Office score a hit last season (cold winter?).
Meteo France are saying Jan 2007 will be a record breaker in terms of average temperature.
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davidof, is that for the whole of France?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| laundryman wrote: |
| davidof, is that for the whole of France? |
Yes overall for France.
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Seems like it could be extended to the whole of Europe actually. I wonder if there's anywhere that's been colder than average for the last few weeks.
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brian
brian
Guest
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brian, geographically (if not politically) part of N. America? </squirm></wriggle>
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
Resorts have had it good (to good) for many many year. They have had it all one-way ripping off customers in Hotels, Restaurants etc.
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I don't feel ripped off in the local resorts; given the acute seasonality of the business - just the ski season plus 6 weeks in the summer, I think prices are reasonable. Even within the season there are only a few busy weeks; last week, and Christmas, this area was busy but now it's extremely empty, and will stay like that till the vacances scolaire. I love having whole pistes and lifts to myself, but it can't be good for business and there should be ways to spread the visitors more evenly throughout the season. It seems crazy that a lift pass costs the same at New Year as it does mid-January; easyJet don't work that way. French resorts don't seem to have much concept of elasticity of demand - only in the most extreme circumstances are lift pass prices changed.
Resorts have been trying to provide more summer attractions for years, and there seem to be plenty of people holidaying in the Beaufortain in the summer. They're not British, though, and they all tend to come in late July/August - even French people with no kids seem absolutely wedded to August holidays (and travelling down the autoroutes on Saturdays). It's a mystery to me; June is so much nicer, snow on the tops and all the meadows full of flowers. Accommodation is cheap, but the bars and restaurants are practically all closed; the station is like a ghost town. If this summer is going to be very hot again I can thoroughly recommend a mountain holiday though; it would be a good way of helping to make sure that the resorts survive.
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| Quote: |
| didn't the Met Office score a hit last season |
They were pretty good with warmer, drier winter with colder spells towards the end. They've gone for warmer, wetter winter with colder spells later on this year. This is (IMHO) about as good as you can get with seasonal forecasts (at the moment).
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| Meteo France are saying Jan 2007 will be a record breaker in terms of average temperature. |
This is an interesting one davidof. The Meteo France prediction is the first regional one I've seen. The MetO & CRU have put a 60% probability that this year will be warmer *globally* than the CRU's previous highest of 1998 (the GISS (NASA) dataset had 2005 as the warmest year). 1998 was an El Nino year (as is 2007). You tend to get a spike in El Nino years as the Pacific releases a lot of stored heat, and the following year of few tend to be cooler (in terms of surface temperature) as it re-absorbs it all again (thus globally the heat has not been lost). So if 2007 does become the warmest, there *may* well be a noticeable drop in 2008. because of the year on year changes, the temp. anomaly graphs use a five year running average.
I'd be interested in a reference to the French prediction, as a regional variation will depend on the synoptics (obviously the synoptics are forced and thus a symptom as well as a cause). I've not yet read much on the regional predictions (especially on annual predictions).
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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skanky, yeah, but that's the Asian part of Turkey.
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laundryman, is that an edible bit?
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You know it makes sense.
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| skanky wrote: |
| The Meteo France prediction is the first regional one I've seen. |
I think Meteo France doesn't know that there is anywhere else rather than it being a French only forecast.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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[quote="pam w"]
| Quote: |
even French people with no kids seem absolutely wedded to August holidays (and travelling down the autoroutes on Saturdays). |
There is a certain amount of pressure to take holidays at certain times of the year, even for white collar workers. It also maybe has something to do with the school system which relies heavily on rote learning; as a huge generalization the people I've worked with are very good at applying their learning, very poor at thinking outside the box and this probably carrieds over into other aspects of life.
In the winter hotels are very wedded to a saturday to saturday turn around as this works well for them.
I must say that I find many of the French ski resorts are an eye-saw, a blot on the landscape, I'd sooner go for a holiday amongst the coal-pits of south-wales. If you want a summer walking holiday somewhere like Switzerland is less trashed and also has excellent public transport links.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Quote: |
| somewhere like Switzerland is less trashed and also has excellent public transport links |
And somewhere like the mountains above Bellinzona are also probably less busy.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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skanky, on the subject of "el nino", the spike in the UEA graph for 1998 is obvious, but I'm struggling to see a clear correlation of peaks with the other el nino years (at least, as listed here).
Any comment? (apologies if I've already asked you something similar at some point).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I can see a match (by eyeball rather than against the data) with the strong El Nino years (91/92 82/83). We are matching the latter year*. One thing to remember with this is that that is an anomaly graph over and above the average (as defined), and there are are other signals (eg aerosols etc) in the trend. The warming and thus the effect warming tends to be more clear later. Comparing with the GISS dataset gives a good match except for '91/92 but that was probably because of Pinatubo's eruption in '91.
* Interestingly, based on the CRU dataset, prior to 1950 the warmer year was the earlier one of the two, and there seems to have been a trend where the latter year caught up and overtook the latter year (pivotal about 1950). I've not seen any explanation for this.
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skanky, I can't see it myself, not to a decent level of confidence - and I was looking at the later year. Could be my eyeball that's askew though!
I think I've mentioned before that I wonder if increased aerosols masked greenhouse warming between 1940 and 1980, and may be doing so now to an extent (this time generated in South and East Asia rather than Europe and North America).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
| skanky, I can't see it myself, not to a decent level of confidence - and I was looking at the later year. Could be my eyeball that's askew though! |
You can get the data from both the CRU & the GISS and do a direct comparison.
As for the aerosols, it seems that there's something to that, see here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/index/#Aerosols (read all the sections for a fuller and more up to date picture).
But also there were other forcings prior to the 1940s (IIRC solar for example) that reduced (resulting in some cooling) before the CO2 signal became clear in the 80s. NB I may slightly out with the dates and the exact behaviour of the forcings, but it gives you an idea.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 10-01-07 11:13; edited 1 time in total
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Okay it didn't feel that warm today, although I was able to have lunch in the garden at midday. Meteo France, via the mainstream media, has said that currently the temperatures are +8C above the 30 year average and will continue for several months at this level without excluding some cold snaps. Basically what the french farmers weather model said that I reported on a couple of week's back.
So if you are going skiing, go to a resort with a lot of runs above 2000 meters.
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davidof, up montgenvre way it was baking, well i was but i was working hard at teh old boarding!
we had a great day, even if it was far to spring like.
some seasons are good others bad. it wont be the first time we've had a bad season and it wont be the last!
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| laundryman wrote: |
| Seems like it could be extended to the whole of Europe actually. I wonder if there's anywhere that's been colder than average for the last few weeks. |
Yes - Sydney, Australia - I'm just back from there and the locals were complaining how cold it was, only in the mid 20's (I thought it was great). Last year at the same time it was in the mid 40's.
They also had some snowfall in the south of Australia that came quite far North, which has never happened in summer before.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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