 Poster: A snowHead
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So if I read this correctly, it basically says that temps are all over the place in the coming weeks, with little agreement of any precipitation, but around the 9th looking the most hopeful??
This is for Geneva, right?
Am I correct?
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brian
brian
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kitenski, it says it should get cooler in the next few days and there may be a flake or 2 on Wednesday, ignore the rest 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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ah ok, so is the medium/long term stuff never correct then???
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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kitenski - what little (I think) I understand is that the more correlated Kontrol and Ensemble are then the more probable the outturn forecast. So through to around 3 Dec currently looks probable on the above (27 Nov 00Z) chart.
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well there is a spike on the GFS around the same time as well Helen, so fingers crossed for the Alps generally
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brian
brian
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kitenski, if it's 4 days or less, you'd be disappointed (but not astonished) if it doesn't come off. If it's 4-7 days it's worth watching (especially if there is ensemble agreement and even better other model agreement). If it's >7 days then it's for interest only, imo.
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brian
brian
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Incidentally, it's worth knowing that metcheck, snow-forecast and the US Sembach forecasts are all GFS based (the first 2 are automatically regurgitated from GFS output), so a bit pointless using them as backup.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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cheers Brian,
What other websites should be corralate the GFS against??
Regards,
Greg
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brian
brian
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kitenski, the 2 other main models are the ECMWF (European joint venture) and the UKMO (our Met office).
ECM available on its own site (www.ecmwf.int), wetterzentrale and here (no precipitation output unfortunately but allows correlation of areas of Low and High pressure, etc).
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=0
Easiest way to see UKMO is via the Fax charts (although they are modified by Met Office forecasters to take the other models into account, I believe the primary input is their own model). They're on wetterzentrale as well but this is quite a good page for viewing them:
http://www.mwis.org.uk/synoptic.php
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You know it makes sense.
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Thanks to this fascinating thread I now find myself checking every web weather site I can get access to. It's addictive! I've been very enlightened as to how cr*p medium/long term weather forecasts are - I assume that the unique geography of the Alps contribute to this but just watching the situation develop for Tignes (where I am off on Thursday) shows how up and down the forecast is. Yesterday we were looking at a few flakes tomorrow with heavy snow over the weekend. Now the forecast shows heavier snow tomorrow with nothing much over the weekend. I can now see the folly of paying extra to access the 6 day forecasts on snow-forecast.com - pay extra for useless information!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Easiest way to see UKMO is via the Fax charts (although they are modified by Met Office forecasters to take the other models into account, I believe the primary input is their own model). They're on wetterzentrale as well but this is quite a good page for viewing them: |
Yes, although you can get quite a bit of raw model output into the FAX charts at times. It's worth noting that the forecasters will take into account more models than just the "big 3". The French Arpege model (apparently), the Candian GEM model and the US Navy (I think) NOGAPS are worth looking at - especially when the other models are not in general agreement (I've not used the French model though). The Basel-based model is also worth checking out for localised back-up though it stresses that it's experimental.
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