 Poster: A snowHead
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Yep. I think there's something there. Looks warm-ish again though, so wet-ish snow low down if it pans out, but certainly looks to be something there. Bit far out for the other models to pick up on it yet though, so don't get too excited just yet...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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My main worry about that is that GFS had the breakdown earlier than that a couple of days ago. It's consistently pushing the breakdown beyond the 180hr mark (which is where the resolution changes so reliability takes a stepwise drop at that point). Once it starts brining it below 180hrs (roughly a week), then sit up and take notice. That said, I agree that it's always worth noting when it's saying it (esp. as ECMWF is saying similar - but then it was with a Boxing Day breakdown which it's now pushed way to the north).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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bumpity bump (down to page three when I found the little blighter...)
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carled, what do you see in your crystal ball? Still look like a change from around 10 Jan? It's great right now, but let's not get carried away, the temperatures are rising and this dump isn't going to stick around forever.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Nono... never as early as 10th Jan. Mid Jan - 15th/16th was what I had in mind. A spell of warm wetness ahead again for a week or so, methinks... Still hopeful of that change happening, just need things to keep developing to stop the dreaded zonality kicking back in again instead. So far, looking hopeful still and I can't wish for more than that.
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Carled-what does your crystal ball see happening around the middle of jan,anything interesting for la plagne? by the way carled,ive found your forecasts very accurate(slightly annoying because of the poor snow,but turned out to very true)and helpful,cheers.
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carled, oooh 15/16 Jan would do very nicely thank you 
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Hmmm. Well I'm sitting here scratching my head a bit really. Virtually every run of the GFS system is coming up with a different scenario. All seem to agree on a wintry (but possibly damagingly windy) blast for the UK sometime early next week and the general trend for the european continent is towards colder temps and a bit more precipitation. Trouble is that things are balanced on a knife edge... but it's a three-way knife edge that could see it suddenly get VERY cold and wintry, flip back to exactly what we had before through Nov/Dec or continue the gradual shift towards cold but not super-cold temps.
In the short term over the next week or so, I expect temps in the alps to rise again with freezing levels creeping back up to the 2000m mark in France and 1400-1500 in Austria/Germany but it's not as horrid a temperature rise as looked possible a week or so back, so that at least is good news. It looks as though it's going to carry on being windy though and it could be a bit of an unwanted warm wind (the f-word whose name we don't utter) that strips a fair bit of snow from where we'd really rather have it left.
It's too unpredicatable to call at the moment, but the promising signs for change mid Jan are still there. It's down to what happens over the next few days as to whether those promising signs get shoved away again or come to fruition. After the weekend, all may be clearer, in the meantime, it does still look promising for around the end of the week after next.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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still sounds promising,fingers crossed
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| carled wrote: |
Hmmm. Well I'm sitting here scratching my head a bit really. Virtually every run of the GFS system is coming up with a different scenario. All seem to agree on a wintry (but possibly damagingly windy) blast for the UK sometime early next week and the general trend for the european continent is towards colder temps and a bit more precipitation. Trouble is that things are balanced on a knife edge... but it's a three-way knife edge that could see it suddenly get VERY cold and wintry, flip back to exactly what we had before through Nov/Dec or continue the gradual shift towards cold but not super-cold temps.
In the short term over the next week or so, I expect temps in the alps to rise again with freezing levels creeping back up to the 2000m mark in France and 1400-1500 in Austria/Germany but it's not as horrid a temperature rise as looked possible a week or so back, so that at least is good news. It looks as though it's going to carry on being windy though and it could be a bit of an unwanted warm wind (the f-word whose name we don't utter) that strips a fair bit of snow from where we'd really rather have it left.
It's too unpredicatable to call at the moment, but the promising signs for change mid Jan are still there. It's down to what happens over the next few days as to whether those promising signs get shoved away again or come to fruition. After the weekend, all may be clearer, in the meantime, it does still look promising for around the end of the week after next. |
Looks like a high over north Africa will start to move north dragging up some hot air if the ever changing GFS is to be believed. Also the large precipitation which has been showing consistently for days around the 11th has been dialled right back.
what do you think Carled?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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whats the latest? good news i hope
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Yes and no... yes, it looks like it'll get a bit cooler again from around the 16th/17th, but it still isn't the complete pattern change hoped for. Minor changes have pinned the low & high pressures in place that are causing our ongoing mild woe and it isn't showing a definite sign of moving just yet. The hoped for pattern changes are hinted at, but it keeps moving backwards as the GFS system isn't good at dealing with weather conditions in a strong jet setup like we have at the moment. It keeps (like the rest of us) hoping that it can't carry on as it is and that the high and low pressures will creep around to where the conditions are more like "the norm" for Europe, but then the jetstream gets in the way again and stops it developing, meaning that we stay locked in this interminable position for longer and longer.
Gut feeling at the moment? Better for the cold lovers, but not as quickly as hoped for. I think that by mid-Jan we'll still have a much more favourable set-up, but it'll take a while to pull into place. It looks like it will be cooler for that week onwards as far as the forecasts stretch out at present, but it is as likely to get warm again as it is to stay cold. It all depends on whether the jet stream relents enough to allow the polar vortex to move from its current locked-in position over Greenland thus kicking off the necessary shifts of high and low pressure that bring the cooler arctic air down over Europe.
The best we can hope for with the current set-up is cooler conditions from around the 16th/17th. It could still all change in the next few days and make that cool outlook go mild again, and it could still shift to allow a plunge into serious cold. And it could carry on as is with cool/warm cycles... *sigh* who'd be a forecaster under these conditions...
Apart from a brief cool incursion, it'll be pretty mild for a good week or so now. A few sprinkles of snow high up, but rain lower down here and there. Fortunately not much though to destroy lying snow lower down, which is a small blessing at least. Nothing majorly cold in the foreseeable future still, but we'll try again in a few days.
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Thanks Carled, extremely helpful and clear report, you're really good at giving us enough of the meteorological background to understand your conclusion without baffling us with bullsh*t. So, we'll wait and see and look forward to your next summary.
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You know it makes sense.
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cheers carled,excellant report,its the only one i can understand on here,im off on the 27th and have everything crossed for some cold snowy weather
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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hi weather experts,
Can anyone tell me how I get the nice GFS graph for a specific location, namely Engelberg: Latitude : 46N Longitude : 8E , or from Wiki Coordinates 46°49′N 8°24′E
cheers,
Greg
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Poster: A snowHead
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brian
brian
Guest
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nice one thanks alot 
I hope some of that precipitation out around the 15th onwards turns up...
cheers,
greg
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| Quote: |
I hope some of that precipitation out around the 15th onwards turns up...
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but not unless the freezing level drops, thanks.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| pam w wrote: |
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I hope some of that precipitation out around the 15th onwards turns up...
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but not unless the freezing level drops, thanks. |
Well if the GFS is to be believed it should start to drop from the 14th onwards (cross everything.... and hope the chart reads the same on the 11th and 12th)
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everything is crossed,even my dogs legs are crossed,or does he just need a wee?
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remember that warm temperature blip we spotted before Xmas, seems to be something horribly similiar 19th Jan onwards, I really hope some later runs push it away 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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looks like sunday is going to see the drop in temps,really hope it stays that way,only 2.5 weeks to go till i hit la plagne.
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Pools of standing water at 2000m today. Snow lovely in places though - soft and forgiving, like spring snow, making a swishing sploshing sound.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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carled,is anything positive happening?how concerned should i be for my hols on the 27th to la plagne?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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kitenski,
Freezing levels on Angel mountain remain a bit high but there is enough precipitation. What we need is a drop over the next week.
We also need the high to move away from the centre of Europe or whatever is stopping all this sh*te weather passing over me, from hitting the alpes
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I'm keeping quiet for a day or two in the hope it changes for the better. It is looking a bit woeful just at present and I'm sticking my fingers in my ears and going, "lalalalalalala" until it goes away... 
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You know it makes sense.
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well that bad spike I saw has gone on the latest run, just shows how quickly it changes........
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Head (briefly) above the parapet... OK. Well, since I last wrote, the charts have continued to be all over the place. The change I started wittering about earlier in the month is still in the offing... just gone back slightly, unfortunately.
However, the good news is that it hasn't gone back into the realms of the dreaded "fantasy island" and is, in fact, just outside of what I'd consider to be a reliable timeframe. The pesky strong jetstream (as Skanky pointed out elsewhere, generally has warmer air south of it and colder air to the north) has thus far been too far North and allowed the warm temps to come up from the equator. A few changes off the east coast of the US have put forward perturbations that should - hopefully - shift the jetstream slightly further south, also allowing some low pressure to shove over Eastwards and bring some colder Arctic air down (forgive me dumbing it down so much Skanky, Brian and anyone else with real weather knowledge!).
So.. although it's not going to get absolutely brass monkeys, it IS going to get cold. Cold enough for snow cannons AND it looks like the meeting of the warm and cold air is also going to spit out what could be a decent amount of snowfall all oer the alpine region.
I'm promising nothing, but as Skanky says elsewhere, I'm quietly confident that the good times could be about to roll and from about the 20th/21st - and IF things continue to develop as they are - we will see colder temps and snow down to village level in all alpine areas.
There, I've stuck my neck out... here's hoping I don't lose my head... 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Thank you carled, news that I like to hear - even if it changes! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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carled, i have everything possible crossed!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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carled, I have faith!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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excellant,i feel alot more relaxed now,might be able to get some sleep 2nite hope all goes to plan,bring on the cold
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| Quote: |
| forgive me dumbing it down so much Skanky, Brian a |
Not dumbing down at all. A forecast/guess/prediction/whatever is pointless is its audience doesn't understand it - and I'm probably a bit guilty on that score.
I think it might get a bit warm around 19/20th but that should be a precursor to the cooler air (as said, nothing especially cold yet) moving in after that. Still not set in stone, but we're only a day later on from previous.
There's some agreement about the set-up for the 16th which bodes well, and even the 17th is not looking too bad in broad terms. (NB that's comparing the 00z runs).
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bump...
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bump again, or maybe not so bumpy before too long I had to hide behind the sofa to read this thread but Dr Who is still OK....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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carled, bump because you can reinforce Thursday's comment ? or ..............
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