 Poster: A snowHead
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Forecasters are predicting gales with winds up to 80mph and possibly 100mph on the coasts. I know where I live in The Midlands they are expecting 60mph winds. With a flight booked for midday on Friday from Birmingham I am fearful of an afternoon spent in the airport before they decide to cancel the flight. Does anyone have any knowledge or experience of how likely it is flights will not operate in these conditions?
I hope the ferries are all running for any of you crossing the channel tomorrow.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I suspect it may depend on the impact of the weather on take off (might be different to landing), the risk appetite of the airline and the warning forecast perhaps 24 hours out.
BA cancelled our flight with 24 hours notice ex Belfast due out yesterday when there was a yellow warning for wind in place at the time. But other airlines still flew out to the mainland.
Tomorrow currently there is an Amber warning for wind, which is worse than yellow, over where you are.
Good luck!
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Thu 17-02-22 12:23; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just been upgraded to red warning for some areas: BBC article
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A severe weather warning has been upgraded to red - the highest level - for parts of south-west England and the south Wales on Friday, meaning there is a danger to life from flying debris.
The Met Office warned Storm Eunice could bring winds of up to 90mph, causing significant disruption.
Damage to homes, train cancellations and power cuts are also likely.
A lower amber warning for wind remains in place for the rest of Wales and most of England as far north as Manchester. |
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PS. Amber wind warning indicates expect “roads….likely to close, with delays and cancellations to bus, train, ferry services and flights.”
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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My neighbour is a pilot for Jet2 - at the minute they're not forecasting any flight cancellations. However as we approach the time things may change obviously. I remember back about 4 or 5 years ago the almost exact same thing happened (half term flights, bad winds) and I do believe a lot of people didn't end up travelling until the next day unfortunately.
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Due to fly out of Heathrow tomorrow to Munich, hopefully no cancellations.
Had my flight back cancelled in 2020 due to bad winds/rain but got everything crossed for tomorrow.
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I recall that. A teacher I know was on a school trip. They all slept on the bus at Dover until the following day. It was a long journey for them all.
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@Mike_H, The terminal area forecast for Brum valid till 12 tomorrow has just been issued. The majority of the gusty winds forecast are across the runway, which is worse. In showers there may be gusts of up to 55kts mid morning which would just about preclude anybody working on the apron safely. As ever those pesky isobars only have to move a bit for it to be OK or worse.
With the majority of the wind problems being down south where the majority of flights originate from the planners will have to look at diversion planning very carefully.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@chocksaway, Looks like I will be keeping everything crossed. I have no 'plan B' for this short weekend away.
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If the wind speeds forecast for Gatwick tomorrow come true, there'll be a lot of cancellations.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And Port of Dover, too. And the French side. Fair bit calmer for Saturday.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| pam w wrote: |
| If the wind speeds forecast for Gatwick tomorrow come true, there'll be a lot of cancellations. |
I'm glad I'm flying Saturday now. Although I'm worried that the place could be chaos with people from Friday trying to rebook/catch flights on Saturday.
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For anyone driving into Kent over the QE2 bridge, be aware that this is likely to close in high winds, so it may be worth considering coming anti-clockwise on the M25 or using the Blackwall Tunnel
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You know it makes sense.
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I remember doing a channel crossing in the big storm of 1900 (I think). The gents toilets were very "interesting". It was sloshing from side to side as the ferry rolled.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| musher wrote: |
| I remember doing a channel crossing in the big storm of 1900 (I think). The gents toilets were very "interesting". It was sloshing from side to side as the ferry rolled. |
Was that under sail?
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Poster: A snowHead
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@ster,
Passenger ferry to catch the train in Paris if I remember correctly.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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TAF Birmingham (forecast) decode for Friday. I'll post Sat. when available. Can't see much flying for a few hours.
TAF EGBB: Issued on the 17th at 11:03 UTC
valid from 12:00 UTC on the 17th until 12:00 UTC on the 18th
wind 270 degrees, 14 knots
visibility 10km or more
few clouds at 3500 feet
probability 30%
temporarily valid from 12:00 UTC on the 17th until 16:00 UTC on the 17th
visibility 6000 metres
showers, rain
broken cloud at 1400 feet
probability 30%
temporarily valid from 15:00 UTC on the 17th until 18:00 UTC on the 17th
wind 280 degrees, 16 gusting to 26 knots
becoming valid from 22:00 UTC on the 17th until 01:00 UTC on the 18th
wind 170 degrees, 08 knots
visibility 6000 metres
rain
broken cloud at 1000 feet
temporarily valid from 01:00 UTC on the 18th until 07:00 UTC on the 18th
visibility 3000 metres
heavy rain
broken cloud at 800 feet
probability 30%
temporarily valid from 01:00 UTC on the 18th until 07:00 UTC on the 18th
broken cloud at 400 feet
becoming valid from 02:00 UTC on the 18th until 05:00 UTC on the 18th
wind 150 degrees, 15 gusting to 25 knots
becoming valid from 06:00 UTC on the 18th until 09:00 UTC on the 18th
wind 210 degrees, 25 gusting to 40 knots
visibility 10km or more
no significant weather
probability 30%
temporarily valid from 09:00 UTC on the 18th until 10:00 UTC on the 18th
wind 220 degrees, 30 gusting to 55 knots
becoming valid from 10:00 UTC on the 18th until 12:00 UTC on the 18th
wind 290 degrees, 27 gusting to 45 knots
broken cloud at 1200 feet
temporarily valid from 10:00 UTC on the 18th until 12:00 UTC on the 18th
wind 300 degrees, 30 gusting to 55 knots
visibility 6000 metres
rain
showers, rain
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Thu 17-02-22 15:49; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@musher, steam train then?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@ster, probably would have been horse and cart in France back then.
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Manchester Airport looks OK, doesn't' it?
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I am looking at changing flights and Manchester weather is currently looking 'better'. The storm hits later and less severe so considering booking the 6am flight while winds are more favourable.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@franga, For Friday between 0900 and 1600 Manchester looks very windy. The wind is forecast to be virtually across the runway at 30 to 35 kts with gust to 65 kts. You may be lucky between the showers, but it will be a lottery, especially if they need the aircraft there early Saturday.
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@chocksaway, Thank you. Much appreciated
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Also snow forecast for Manchester fri afternoon
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Oh Lord - sounds like mayhem. 
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@pam w, At least its not Saturday!
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You know it makes sense.
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| chocksaway wrote: |
| @franga, For Friday between 0900 and 1600 Manchester looks very windy. The wind is forecast to be virtually across the runway at 30 to 35 kts with gust to 65 kts. You may be lucky between the showers, but it will be a lottery, especially if they need the aircraft there early Saturday. |
Oh f***.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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For tomorrow it looks like very early out of Heathrow or Newcastle all day.
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Poster: A snowHead
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So we are on the 10:55AM eJ flight from MAN to GVA, BBC app tells me wind speed of circa 20 m/h at that time. We can switch to the 6AM flight for free … winds not as strong early doors. Decisions, decisions …
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Swap!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@franga, This is an extract from the TAF:
BECMG 1803/1806 13015G25KT PROB30 TEMPO 1803/1812 3000 +RA BKN005 BECMG 1807/1809 29022G35KT BECMG 1809/1811 29030G45KT TEMPO 1811/1815 29035G60KT TEMPO 1814/1818 7000 SHRA -SHRASN BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 1815/1818 3000 +SHRA SHRASN BKN005 BECMG 1816/1818 29022G35KT
Given the winds are virtually across the runway it's a goer until about 0900 if the airline are willing to divert on the way home.
In a nutshell it says SWAP!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| chocksaway wrote: |
@franga, This is an extract from the TAF:
BECMG 1803/1806 13015G25KT PROB30 TEMPO 1803/1812 3000 +RA BKN005 BECMG 1807/1809 29022G35KT BECMG 1809/1811 29030G45KT TEMPO 1811/1815 29035G60KT TEMPO 1814/1818 7000 SHRA -SHRASN BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 1815/1818 3000 +SHRA SHRASN BKN005 BECMG 1816/1818 29022G35KT
Given the winds are virtually across the runway it's a goer until about 0900 if the airline are willing to divert on the way home.
In a nutshell it says SWAP! |
Have just managed to swap us onto the 6AM flight - haven't told Mrs F yet as she's on a a work call. She hates early starts ... but when a man is faced with critical decisions ...
Thanks for all your advice and insight @chocksaway.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@franga, I just hope it works out for you, it will depend on how easyjet want to play it, ie the risk of the return flight getting in at around 11.
PS Feel free to blame me, that bloke on the interpipes!
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All Welsh schools closed? If you can get out of Wales thats an extra day skiing!
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At least Saturday isnt as bad as tomorrow but still forecast of 42-43 on winds for when we are due to take off.
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They are already cancelling loads of flights ex Belfast City for tomorrow. Mainly BA & Aer Lingus
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| knackered knees wrote: |
| For anyone driving into Kent over the QE2 bridge, be aware that this is likely to close in high winds, so it may be worth considering coming anti-clockwise on the M25 or using the Blackwall Tunnel |
BBC South East Today has just said that the bridge will be closed all day Friday. They'll use one of the tunnels, but likely to be a bottleneck.
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| 195062 wrote: |
| knackered knees wrote: |
| For anyone driving into Kent over the QE2 bridge, be aware that this is likely to close in high winds, so it may be worth considering coming anti-clockwise on the M25 or using the Blackwall Tunnel |
BBC South East Today has just said that the bridge will be closed all day Friday. They'll use one of the tunnels, but likely to be a bottleneck. |
thanks for this. we are due to go that way tomorrow so can now make alternative plans. never gave it a second thought as we figured the disruption woudl be to flights and ferries and not the tunnel !!
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