 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Read the poker article some time ago and found it thought provoking. Thank you.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just done the canadian AST 1, so obv no expert. One thing stood out for me - "Are you, or the person you're following, using an "expert halo"?" They really wanted to drive that home for us. Puncture the expert halo.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
Ski touring is considered to be far more dangerous on a day to day comparison. This is due to the exposure when climbing. So the chance of an off-piste skier getting caught is much lower.
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Is there any stats that back this up?
Big generalisations but IME I see far more risky behaviour from lift served offpiste skiers than ski tourers who tend to have a bit more idea about snow safety. Thinking of avalanches I've heard about, those on the uphill are far more infrequent than downhill - slopes steep enough to avalanche tend not to make great uptracks. Also you can greatly minimise uphill risk by sticking to trees, ridges etc. so your total time in avy terrain may be limited to downhill of which you are going to get way less time than someone doing lift served offpiste.
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So why are experienced skiers getting caught out so often?
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Obviously the more time you spend in a dangerous environment the higher your odds of being in an accident, however I'm not sure that excuses many of the situations we see where questionable decisions have been made (including by guides). Lots of potential factors going on. Complacency is one. More complex goals/objectives. In terms of guides I think there is external pressure on them from clients - nobody ever talks about their amazing day with a guide that only let them ski mellow trees due to high avy risk. In terms of pro skiers, some of them clearly have a high risk tolerance (nikolai schirmeris a great example).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The biggest risk in my experience is unwillingness to back off from a descent. This unwillingness increases with the level of effort required to get to the start point - that can be physical effort or monetary (i.e, it is a big deal to pay a guide for a day). This pressure builds on the expert leading the outing and often leads to the "expert halo". In retrospect, in my early years of skinning into off-piste routes it feels to me like this happened quite a lot and I took greater risks than I should have (or would now). Partially from having no expertise and not feeling I had any way to challenge the decision-making of the leader.
The best mitigation in my view is proper planning. The day before at least. Discuss the route in detail, including any options that might have to be decided on on the day. Agree precise criteria for both taking on a slope and backing off/walking back out. Remember what those criteria are, and stick to them. Always explicitly ask the least expert/experienced for their input and push them if they are being reticent. Finally, listen to your instincts. If it feels wrong then it probably is. I get fear going into routes (narrow/steep/technical) at the edge of my perceived ability, which I enjoy and seek out. But that is a different feeling from the instinctual "I don't want to do this" one.
It is hard to be disciplined in this way for sure, but we should all try to be. In normal times I leave kit in Switzerland and will fly out when conditions are good to ski a very specific slope/route with my guide, so there is a lot of effort made even before I make the effort to get to the drop-in point. I see that as being the greatest risk in the decision-making process so I focus on doing all I can to mitigate against it.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@boarder2020, stats do definitely exist and deaths are broken down by category each year in France, snow shoeing is also quite high.
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| Z wrote: |
| The biggest risk in my experience is unwillingness to back off from a descent. |
I gave up hang gliding precisely because because I didn't think I would survive my own unwillingness to do that.
| boarder2020 wrote: |
| ... In terms of guides I think there is external pressure on them from clients... |
I've witnessed this many times with rich inexperienced clients,
who I guess expect their money to be able to buy anything.
--
I think that the key characteristic of this risk is that it's low frequency/ high impact.
Hence risky behaviour almost always "pays off".
And then if you got away with it last time, you probably think you're smart, not lucky.
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@boarder2020, question, people riding lift served off piste may appear to be taking greater risks, but are they much more likely than tourers to be skiing on well skiied routes which may have compacted the weak layers and reduced the risk? Maybe taking less trodden paths explains why tourers more at risk of being caught?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| peanuthead wrote: |
| @boarder2020, question, people riding lift served off piste may appear to be taking greater risks, but are they much more likely than tourers to be skiing on well skiied routes which may have compacted the weak layers and reduced the risk? Maybe taking less trodden paths explains why tourers more at risk of being caught? |
In general :
1) on a regularly skied (resort) slope skiers will cut up weak layers before they can develop
2) ski patrol control / bomb resorts
3) a skier descending is much more able to escape avalanche than someone ascending on skins
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Mon 7-02-22 8:28; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@peanuthead, Some truth in resort skiers compacting snow. However, imo it works both ways - high risk day after new snow "people ski this all the time so it must be fine".
@Haggis_Trap, Im not necessarily sure it's true resort skiers cut up weak layers. But even if it is, there are still other risks for avalanche. Look at some of the impressive slides in North America resorts following bombing on faces that are skied all the time.
In regards to someone ascending I get your point it's harder. However, imo a lot of risk can be decreased on the uphill through good route selection and normal precautions - e.g. if you have to traverse through a slide path go one at a time (there is a notorious slide path at Connaught creek in Rodgers pass and it's unbelievable how many travel through it grouped or even stop under it).
@Weathercam, so no off piste skiers have been caught? For last year in USA it looks like ski snowboard avy incidents with a reported death comprised of around 2/3 tourers and 1/3 "side country" or Heli ski (only 1 Heli death). So definitely looks the case tourers are at greater risk. I'm too lazy to read the reports to see what percentage of touring deaths were uphill Vs downhill.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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lifts weren't running that year, so not surprising it was only tourers.
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| boarder2020 wrote: |
@Haggis_Trap, Im not necessarily sure it's true resort skiers cut up weak layers |
If a slope skied regularly then the facets (weak layer) are likely to get broken up before next snow fall. It's not a guarantee of safety, but it certainly reduces the risk and explains why touring is statistically more dangerous than resort skiing.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much  on Mon 7-02-22 9:48; edited 1 time in total
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@clarky999, yep - I was in Kicking Horse a few years ago, and you could get a free day pass in exchange for an hours boot packing in the morning.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| boarder2020 wrote: |
| Quote: |
Ski touring is considered to be far more dangerous on a day to day comparison. This is due to the exposure when climbing. So the chance of an off-piste skier getting caught is much lower.
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Is there any stats that back this up?
Big generalisations but IME I see far more risky behaviour from lift served offpiste skiers than ski tourers who tend to have a bit more idea about snow safety. Thinking of avalanches I've heard about, those on the uphill are far more infrequent than downhill - slopes steep enough to avalanche tend not to make great uptracks. Also you can greatly minimise uphill risk by sticking to trees, ridges etc. so your total time in avy terrain may be limited to downhill of which you are going to get way less time than someone doing lift served offpiste.
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Just to explore what you are saying a bit more as it is interesting.
The ANENA gave me the figure of 3:1 for climbing vs descending. That is climbing is 3 times more dangerous than descending based on severity of the incident (numbers caught/injuries). 35% of ski tour incidents are when climbing according to the French SERAC database.
There are approximately 150,000 French ski tourers doing on average 7 tours per season on average and around 10-15 deaths in a typical season. So that's around 1 million ski tour days with a fatality rate of 1:100,000 tours. For off piste is 55 million days skiing and 10% of those off piste for again, around 10-15 fatalities. The fatality rate is therefore around 1:500,000 off piste excursions. A lot then turns around what you consider off piste skiing (see Davos study below).
If you mix in snow shoeing then backcountry tours become less dangerous as snow shoers are generally in mid or low mountain terrain with less avalanche risk. The Swiss figures are 3x the number of snowshoers compared to ski tourers for 1 or 2 deaths per year.
Various reasons have been explored above for why resort off piste skiing is relatively less dangerous.
However
The SLF did some research based in Davos where they compared 3 popular off piste routes on the Parsenn and Jakobshorn with ski touring in the area. They counted 11,000 ski tours in the season for the areas concerned and 3,000 off piste descents on the routes they targetted. Taking the local accident figures they concluded that off piste skiers were 3 times more likely to be killed. The opposite of the ANENA's figures.
The principal reason was lack of knowledge of off piste skiers and that they were much more likely to ski at risk 3 or 4 (again you and others have discussed this above)
Of course they ignored all the other off piste skiing going on in the area and focused on 3 routes so they captured a certain picture which was trying to compare similar routes. So both conclusions can be right at the same time.
Note: a lot of the figures are estimates
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 7-02-22 15:57; edited 2 times in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| boarder2020 wrote: |
| Quote: |
Ski touring is considered to be far more dangerous on a day to day comparison. This is due to the exposure when climbing. So the chance of an off-piste skier getting caught is much lower.
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Is there any stats that back this up?
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Statistics is pretty hard to do in this, as there's so many variables that in my mind it's hard to consider all, and make usable statistics, not just the one that fits current agenda.
But in general, I would say that it's quite right claim. You spend way more time in dangerous zone while touring then while skiing. Skiing down is 5-10min depending how big/long is that face/run. Climbing same thing up can take several hours. During this several hours there's way more chances something might go wrong. First you are crossing way wider are on foot up while skiing down, so while you might have luck and miss hotzone which triggers avi skiing down, you have more chances to hit it when going wider. With spending all this time there, you meet way more people who already ski down that terrain and they can actually trigger avalanche so you are just unlucky bystander who got swiped by. And one last thing, you have much less chances to do something when in uphill mode then in skiing mode. While skiing you might be lucky enough and ski out, even if not, your skis are in ski mode, which means they might unclip, your poles are not attached to you, and you are properly clothed, with helmet on, gloves on, and ready to pull airbag. While in uphill mode, your skis are in climb mode, so no chance to unclip, with skins on and bindings in climb mode, there's no way you will ski out of anything, poles are on with straps, you are in light clothes, with helmet on backpack, and not really prepared to pull airbag. But the plus side on uphill mode is, you put way less pressure on snow, so even if you hit trigger point of avalanche, there's less chances it will really slide, then when you ski, as your force is smaller.
So in general, I would agree that touring is more dangerous then freeride. But that goes for same person. If you look comparison between ski tourers and pure freeriders (they really shouldn't be called like that, as 90% of them are "freeriders" out of opportunity as there was big snow dump in resort where they are skiing, and they headed out for offpiste without any knowledge and thinking, so they are not regular freeriders), you can see there's way more people who don't even think about danger between these youtube/instagram "freeriders", then between ski tourers, even though there's plenty of such people with no knowledge, no thinking and also no respect to snow and mountain forces, coming to ski touring in last few years since ski touring boom started.
[quote="philwig"]I gave up hang gliding precisely because because I didn't think I would survive my own unwillingness to do that./quote]
I said same for me and motorbikes. I know how I ski and how I ride mtb, so I know how I would ride motorbike. Only difference is, I'm all my life on skis and bike, and I'm used to 80-100kmh speed on either skis or bike. But with motorbike, that would be more like 200-300km/h which I'm certainly not used to and would never get used to, so I would be dead in 14 days. So no motorbike for me, no matter how good it would feel 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@davidof, those 55 million days skiing, is probably every single person/days skiing in resort. That includes also all people skiing strictly on-piste and is probably based on sold ski tickets. That's what I wrote before, that it's too many variables to have proper statistics out of this, as in this case, you would need to count only those who leave groomed trails etc. and that would be really hard job to do. Also second (SLF) research is or is not usable. No idea how those two trails compare etc. so this sort of statistics is in my mind pretty useless and can only be used to confirm certain agenda, as you can spin it really any way you want.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| snowdave wrote: |
| @clarky999, yep - I was in Kicking Horse a few years ago, and you could get a free day pass in exchange for an hours boot packing in the morning. |
Yep I have friends that have done this at kicking horse too. It doesn't mean those slopes never slide though, they get regular bombing throughout the season. My point is it's a dangerous assumption to make that skier compaction means a slope won't slide - not all avys are sized by PWL.
@primoz, I agree exposure for tourers is way higher if they are traveling up the same route they plan to ski down, and there are clearly cases where this is the only feasible option (e.g. bootpacking up a couloir). However, there are plenty of tours where uproute is virtually risk free - mellow slope, ridge, thick trees etc.
You are probably right about the statistics being useless. There are probably too many confounding variables, before you even consider a lot of slides are not reported. Even if all other things are equal it probably makes sense that tourers are more likely to die in a slide due to remoteness.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Thanks for the links. Interesting.
Speaking personally, I don't really like the poker analogy. I get the point about folding quickly when you have few chips left. But on the other hand (I'm a complete amateur at poker so excuse me for the simplification) poker is really about buying the right to play when there is a chance of a good pot (even if you are rather likely to lose) provided that the price to play isn't too high. Stake a little for the chance of a big payout (provided low probability x big pay out > stake). Travelling in avalanche terrain is the reverse - you are taking a small risk of a catastrophic loss. It's not about calculated risk/reward, it's about risk minimisation. Or should be.
I know you know all that so I'm critiquing the analogy not the guidance!
On the conundrum about experts making up a depressing share of avalanche fatalities. I suspect the main point is the one you cover which is really volume of risk exposure.
But isn't it also that experts use those skills to access terrain/conditions that amateurs with self awareness simply avoid? I have a reasonable grasp of my limitations so tend to be VERY cautious about terrain choice even on 3 days. If I want to ski something more exciting then I might well get a guide. Possible implication that guides get asked to use their skills when conditions are more risky?
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