 Poster: A snowHead
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @telford_mike, it's certainly decided per the Tignes website. Mind you, sis in law was saying (probs per friends who work there ) that CdMB wasn't going to have to mandate masks! |
Interesting. Here in CH the lift companies gleefully announced that there would be no such requirement. The Federal Council quickly told them that this decision wasn’t within their gift, and that they should wait until the grown-ups had decided 
https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/seilbahnen-preschen-vor-wird-die-schweiz-ohne-3g-auf-pisten-zur-wintersportinsel
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| snowdave wrote: |
| andy from embsay wrote: |
| FWIW james doesn’t think we’ll get anywhere near 100k cases a day. |
If PCR only finds half the cases (which has certainly been likely on a number of occasions historically) we could already be at 100k.
Or does he mean that we won’t get to 100k PCR +ve results per day? |
Daily reported cases (which is what Javid was talking about) - which can be PCR or LF (they cancel off a positive LF is confirmed by PCR to avoid double counting). James’ models all use gov daily figues as a base then extrapolate using a large range of variables - he’s been consistently better than any of the “official” models (possibly because he has no lag when he makes changes) and is now often quoted by mainstream media.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Timmycb5 wrote: |
Agreed. James Ward is very good. Not a fan on Lillico though.
Bristol Oliver was also very good, but he appears to have deleted his account unfortunately  |
I don’t share Lillico’s politics but it’s hard to argue with his logic currently (and like James he’s been right more than he’s been wrong).
I was inexplicably blocked by Oliver a while ago (having had no interaction with him at all - not an unusual occurence, apparently) but I understand he’s gone full CosplaySage these days so no great loss.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| under a new name wrote: |
@greengriff, the first paper seems a little counter intuitive and at first quick read looks to suffer from the same fault that the Israeli MoH analysis a few weeks ago did, by not stratifying by age and falling into Simpson's paradox?
The Qatar paper was referenced and discussed on the Vaccines thread just after it was released but I've forgotten what was suggested about it!! |
Unfortunately I've read so much other stuff since then I can't recall the details of either, and don't have the urge to re-read - it always seem like I've got 50 things to do  . I agree (as hinted at above) it's pretty much impossible to unpick all the variables (and I don't envy anyone whose job it is to try), but simple reason applies: if the overwhelming majority are vaccinated and case levels are as high as before vaccination then vaccination does not stop transmission.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@greengriff, although it does appear to be broadly accepted that vaccination is beneficial against transmission ...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@andy from embsay, to be honest, I probably haven’t given Lillico and far chance (because I think he is an idiot) so have glossed over anything he says.
That’s weird about Oliver. I always found his stuff reasonable. I know he had a load of pile ons, which may explain the random blocking. And probably also explains why he has ditched his account altogether
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @greengriff, although it does appear to be broadly accepted that vaccination is beneficial against transmission ... |
That latest paper undermines that belief. Also 2 other relevant factors (also mentioned by others): 1. Clinical trials - and the claims based on them - were carried out with the Alpha variant, whereas Delta is now prevalent. 2. The waning of vaccine effectiveness after 6 months.
In fact, that second factor probably explains the large difference in caseload between us and other countries - if you asked me to be bold enough make a prediction, it would be that when the majority of theses other countries' vaccinated population reaches 6 months from their second dose then their cases will rise too.
Last edited by After all it is free  on Thu 21-10-21 11:40; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@under a new name, that paper is the one he previously quoted which I explained above does not even look at whether vaccines stop people transmitting disease. It shows that on a country (not person) basis vaccination is not a single factor explaining disease levels.
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@greengriff, thanks.
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You know it makes sense.
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| j b wrote: |
| @under a new name, that paper is the one he previously quoted which I explained above does not even look at whether vaccines stop people transmitting disease. It shows that on a country (not person) basis vaccination is not a single factor explaining disease levels. |
That's your interpretation. I don't agree. If vaccination rates aren't related to case rates then the vax doesn't stop transmission. There is also this, but I haven't finished reading it yet, so I can't comment on its conclusions:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v2
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@j b, oops, yes, ta, I'd skimmed past that yesterday (a day of distractions).
I've just re-read the article and while it seems somewhat paradoxical, as you rightly point out it's a VERY simplistic analysis and e.g. ignores confounding factors. It also ignores any stratification - e.g. in UK 12-15 y.o.s have only recently been started on vaxx protocols. As with the IL MoH analysis, proper statistical analysis is likely to produce different results. I'm slightly surprised it even got published.
As a specific point, while I think OWiD is a truly marvellous resource, it's only as good as its primary data and e.g. France - I think - fully vaccinated doesn't reflect the French protocol that infection+1 dose= fully vaccinated.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@greengriff, that's a good paper from names that have appeared quite frequently of late  . I note,
"Conclusions
Vaccination reduces transmission of Delta, but by less than the Alpha variant. The impact of vaccination decreased over time. Factors other than PCR Ct values at diagnosis are important in understanding vaccine-associated transmission reductions. Booster vaccinations may help control transmission together with preventing infections."
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| under a new name wrote: |
@greengriff, that's a good paper from names that have appeared quite frequently of late . I note,
"Conclusions
Vaccination reduces transmission of Delta, but by less than the Alpha variant. The impact of vaccination decreased over time. Factors other than PCR Ct values at diagnosis are important in understanding vaccine-associated transmission reductions. Booster vaccinations may help control transmission together with preventing infections." |
I shall try and make time to digest it properly later, although with a house full of kids, a wife that's away,and a sh*t ton of work to do, it might get put on the back burner for now!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The data on Pfizer boosters is a game changer, surely? 95% reduction in symptomatic infection vs 2 jabs.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@andy from embsay, that’s my reading of it.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@greengriff, good luck! It is pretty easily digested and the analysis looks robust.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Thanks - good find!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Sweedish wrote: |
Clarified further on the Italian Gov site.
Green pass is obtained by vaccination, proof of covid antibodies or PCR or Antigen testing (at pharmacy or health facility)
https://www.dgc.gov.it/web/faq.html#infgen |
But crucially (for us with teenagers) - only one jab required for the Italian green pass.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Pejoli, which surely means you're also good for France?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@under a new name, apologies if I’ve missed your point, but a Uk teen with one jab would qualify for an Italian green pass (my son gets a somewhat surprising *blue* tick and “valid in Italy only” in the the green pass VerificaC19 app for his 1/2 QR code), but wouldn’t qualify for the PS without a recent test.
So if PS is not required on French lifts they’re all good, if it is, then they need tests through the holiday? In Italy they’d be fine without the tests.
Is my understanding …. And sorry if we’ve drifted off topic (how about the question of La Thuille > La Rosiere crossings to bring it back in scope )
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@greengriff, Israel had very high infection rates in the summer. Most Israelis had their second dose in January/February. On course with waning protection after 6 months. Right now, after a significant percentage of population (vaccinated all adults regardless of age preconditions) has received a third dose (and over 50% of the 12-18 cohort have received 2 doses since July) the infection rates are low and trending down.
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You know it makes sense.
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| sugardaddy wrote: |
| @greengriff, Israel had very high infection rates in the summer. Most Israelis had their second dose in January/February. On course with waning protection after 6 months. Right now, after a significant percentage of population (vaccinated all adults regardless of age preconditions) has received a third dose (and over 50% of the 12-18 cohort have received 2 doses since July) the infection rates are low and trending down. |
That's very interesting, thank you. Looks like we'll be having boosters forevermore then!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| greengriff wrote: |
| sugardaddy wrote: |
| @greengriff, Israel had very high infection rates in the summer. Most Israelis had their second dose in January/February. On course with waning protection after 6 months. Right now, after a significant percentage of population (vaccinated all adults regardless of age preconditions) has received a third dose (and over 50% of the 12-18 cohort have received 2 doses since July) the infection rates are low and trending down. |
That's very interesting, thank you. Looks like we'll be having boosters forevermore then! |
@andrewcroxford (another good Twitter account) suggests that each dose boosts immunity level and longevity. And drew a picture…
The Pfizer booster data is so good people are saying it should have been described as a 3 dose vax in the first place.
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FAQ
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