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The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Meteo Tarentaise warning of the potential for significant flooding in the valley and perhaps more than 200cm of (wet, heavy) snow above 3000m in the next two or three days, with the snow line fluctuating between 1600 and 2500m. That's not good for anybody.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@rob@rar, I think someone up there is definitely conniving to make this a desperate start to the season for many.

Like we've said to friends who can't make it out, they're really better waiting.

I'm driving to/from Lyon on Wednesday and although there's a lot of precipitation forecast FL's mean at least I should be able to travel via the Lautaret otherwise it's a long detour.

Up the hill looks like the start of the 10cm dribble, I'm going up to meet friends for lunch who I've loaned various goggles to with low light lenses, looks like ideal testing conditions for them Laughing
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Weathercam, not at all miserable here in La Plagne (so far).
Indeed have had some wonderful days. Like yesterday, after santa's overnight snow, the between-piste off- piste was glorious.
Started dull today, but now been snowing hard since lunchtime. Cars arriving with chains on.
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Nice amount of snow falling here in Auris(1600m) for most of the afternoon
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I was in Verbier in the early seventies. No snow in resort when we arrived, first week in Feb. It then snowed for 4 days solid........
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Is it really going to rain everywhere in the non-French alps this week and next?!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Meanwhile in the Sierras in California, they are having trouble keeping the roads plowed.

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Meteo Alpes are saying: snow on Tuesday; rain on Wednesday then +16C on southern slopes at 1000m (+11C at 2000m)!

https://www.skipass.com/news/meteo-montagne-pluie-mousson-27decembre.html

Le Service Interministériel de Défense et de Protection Civile are warning of avalanches and mudslides causing severe disruption to the road network in the Savoie region on Wednesday.
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Impressive. The weather models had this pattern change to heavy snow (turning to rain) accurately predicted 10 days in advance. Bob and Denfinella were remarking on it as long ago as a week last Saturday. It’s probably an evolution that the models can handle more easily than others. It’s the slightly extreme nature of the change that is noteworthy.
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A forecast sponsored by Gore-Tex!
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Bob and Denfinella? They said go high and not get wet. I eat day 10 forecasts for breakfast. The real skill is seeing snow where others don't, and if you ain't first your last wink

Nice to see others making good weather posts though.

Austria to get hammered next week. ECM looks best for the 5th (northern alps), other models are further east.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
With hindsight, for the northern Alps it should've been "go high and still get wet" Laughing
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Out at 9am. Back at 10. Heavy, slow, raining. Coffee and croissants much better.
denfinella quite correct.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Breakfast menu options today aren't ideal, as there isn't guite enough agreement at day 10 for a solid forecast.

1. NOAA still has high pressure sitting over France on average from 3-10th (doesn't discount a quick low rolling in)

2. EC46 has NW flow and better position of high pressure further south 3-10th, but too close for comfort
20211228094218-13d03e4490255b4a78baacee77090bebff2bc27b

3. GEFS, weak northerly flow but cold....ensembles show the average 850 temp dropping from +10 on NYE to -2C in northern parts by 4th Jan
gens-31-5-204

4. GEM has lows stretching down to Spain again
gens-21-5-204

5. ECM better compromise
EDM101-192

It would be foolish to make a prediction with such scant model agreement, but it will snow to the valley floor somewhere for sure this time.


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Tue 28-12-21 10:22; edited 1 time in total
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We are at Praz de Lys (1400m), didn't bother and saw the guy in the next motorhome return at 1015.
Four inches of slush in the carpark overnight, I'm watching the snowplough pushing water.
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Rain/snow line currently around 1900m in Verbier. Hopefully some decent snow above 2500m…
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@KenX, and I did first lifts and skied untracked, though previous tracks were just about showing through so it was not uber smooth and a reasonable effort had to be made but not a bad 90 or so mins, then temps rose and it became decidedly heavier.

Just been walking dogs one minute big flakes, next light rain. Temps now reading +4.7 at 1,400m.

One model gives another 15cm of snow for today and about 15 overnight rather than rain, which would make sense as I have to go over the Lautaret tomorrow about 08:00 Laughing

#oldfartscanstillski



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Snowing in Ischgl ...
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A mate asked me earlier if I wanted to ski in Kühtai on Thursday. I said I'd wait to see where the snow line would fall – he seemed surprised at my suggestion of rain, so maybe it's not coming through on all forecasts, but this evening's avalanche report suggests 2400m (Kühtai is about 2000-2500m lift served).

Avi commission also reckon 40-60cm snowfall at (high) altitude, so it's going to be level 4 from tomorrow afternoon. My instincts say Thursday will be a dangerous foray into leg-breaking snow, but am I being over cautious? Is Friday or the weekend likely to fare better?
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An exceptionally mild four days coming up. The freezing level in the alps is forecast to be above 3000m for three days.

Perhaps the warm air will dry the snow out a bit !
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and back to normal hopefully next week.....

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Scarlet wrote:
A mate asked me earlier if I wanted to ski in Kühtai on Thursday. I said I'd wait to see where the snow line would fall – he seemed surprised at my suggestion of rain, so maybe it's not coming through on all forecasts, but this evening's avalanche report suggests 2400m (Kühtai is about 2000-2500m lift served).

Avi commission also reckon 40-60cm snowfall at (high) altitude, so it's going to be level 4 from tomorrow afternoon. My instincts say Thursday will be a dangerous foray into leg-breaking snow, but am I being over cautious? Is Friday or the weekend likely to fare better?


Suspect it will be heavy, crusty mank best avoided (and high avi risk). Stick to the pistes/park days ahead and maybe some low angle touring up high if it stabilises
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@BobinCH, the rain has been bouncing of the roof for hours. Tomorrow, I will probably sack it off in favour of Lidl.
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Nice dump coming 3/4/5th and back to cold snowHead
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Will be interesting to see what happens next Wednesday when the ground freezes hard at all levels.

Will the snow have dried out sufficiently to prevent the pistes becoming hard pack?

Over the next 3 days the freezing level doesn’t drop below 3000m in the western alps. Shocked
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Let's hope it does, pistes in Grandvaleria were hard to say the least this morning. One blue down from Pas had more people walking/bum sliding down it than skiing....
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Updated 5th chart, can see GFS was way too far east initially with the low and has now come in line with GEM/ECM.
UKMO has also been very steady with N/NW flow tuesday into wednesday. Only question is how quickly the snowline drops.....starting around 2200 in the west and heading below 1000.

gens-31-5-114

Updated EC46 for week 3-10th below is also better with the high pulling back out into the atlantic, like the early season La Nina imprint.

20211231105041-151fbe444313d75e09756cd6fcde14faec2e17eb

There are several favourable background signals this winter but the strat vortex has been persistently strong. So it seems the trop influences are still managing to override the strat even into early Januray. Above average strat winds haven't lead to +AO yet. Typically the strat will start to weaken mid Jan, so that will be one less negative factor in an already positive set up.

u-65-N-10hpa

And good agreement across the 3 main models 8-9th for a better looking northerly reload

EDM101-216
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Back to pow skiing on Wednesday (hurrah!) and more at the weekend
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You know it makes sense.
Such a quiet thread Sad Sad
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Chris Brookes, small matter of a pesky virus stopping people travelling!
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 Poster: A snowHead
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kitenski wrote:
@Chris Brookes, small matter of a pesky virus stopping people travelling!


Yep. On this side of the pond there's been so many flight cancelations that people are getting stuck in airports for days. We decided to do a driving ski trip out to Jackson Hole instead of flying somewhere.

Meanwhile, also on this side of the pond, there's a raging blizzard taking place outside my office window! Up to 70+ CM of snow forecast to fall in the Cascades and into the interior mountain West will get in on the action. There's a nice pattern that has developed off the Pacific with an Atmospheric River (AR) of cool moisture flowing with a very friendly jet stream that is perfectly aligned to steer that AR right over my home state of Oregon for the next 4 days.

I just hope you Euro Snowheads get some of the left overs! Because there appears to be plenty to go around!!! Very Happy
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@Toadman, Come on post some pictures Toofy Grin
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Enough of spring for now I say.
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russ_e wrote:
@Toadman, Come on post some pictures Toofy Grin


Most of the upper mountain lifts are closed due to the high winds. They will have to do some digging tomorrow morning.

Snow stake read 5" at 8am. I will let you do the math! wink



We're gonna need a taller snowstake!
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@Toadman, great stuff! Bet you will be WFS all week!!
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russ_e wrote:
@Toadman, great stuff! Bet you will be WFS all week!!


Well sometimes too much of a good thing is not so good. Several ski resorts unable to open. Plows can't keep up with the snow. Add to that most Western States are short on plow drivers. Several mountain passes closed in Oregon as they try and work to clear roads.

Just in the town of Bend, where I'm at, cars were getting stuck all over the place. A foot of snow at my Aunt and Uncle's place. Was quite fun trying to get through it as my front bumper was "plowing" the unplowed road!

For those that don't follow the North America Ski Resort thread, there was some sad news over New Year's Eve with a 28 year old skier who died in a tree well at Mt. Bachelor. I was up there that day and I can't help but think we might have crossed paths at some point. So ski patrol has made it mandatory to ski with a buddy on the few lifts that are spinning.

So the ski patrol is trying to deal with close to 40" of snow over the past 24 hours. Bonkers!

Meanwhile, out in Washington DC and Virginia they were stuck overnight due to the winter blizzard that hit there yesterday.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/cars-stuck-on-i-495-at-wilson-bridge-traffic-a-mess-amid-horrendous-driving-conditions/2925703/
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Five inches of snow at village level in St Francois Longchamps (Maurienne) this morning, still snowing lightly.
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Current Selva / Dolomites conditions?
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SLF outlook for Switzerland.

“Weather forecast through Wednesday, 05.01.2022

During the night, snow will begin to fall over a wide area. The snowfall level will drop to low altitudes. Around midday it will become increasingly dry from the west; snowfall will persist until the evening only in Engadine. Ticino will become sunny as the day progresses.

Fresh snow

From Tuesday evening until Wednesday evening above approximately 1600 m:
Northern flank of the Alps, northern and extreme west of Lower Valais: 20 to 30 cm, but locally as much as 40 cm from Chablais to Wildstrubel

Elsewhere: 10 to 20 cm over a wide area; up to 10 cm in southern Upper Valais and in Ticino

Temperature

Becoming significantly colder to reach between -11 °C in the north and -5 °C in the south at midday at 2000 m

Wind

During the night, mostly strong southwesterly
During the day on the main Alpine ridge and to the south, strong, otherwise mostly moderate, from the north”
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“ Over a wide area 20 to 30 cm of snow will fall on Wednesday. The wind will be strong. In some cases the various wind slabs have bonded poorly together.
The old snowpack will be subject to considerable local variations. In very isolated cases weak layers exist in the centre of the old snowpack in particular on shady slopes. This applies in particular above approximately 2400m.”
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