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Is the 2021/2022 in doubt ?

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@Mr.Egg, 2 weeks 'firebreak' (because that's basically what you're talking about), didn't do much good for Wales last year. It is now pretty clear that it is indoor social mixing which drives covid spread, not walking past momentarily a maskless stranger in a shop. Unless you stop households mixing indoors, any other mitigation is like p@ssing in a storm.
And just because you give two weeks advanced notice, does not allow make up for all the lost earnings and the hit on consumer confidence.
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I've always said it's the social teens (16+ who have discovered sex, drugs, rock n'roll) who are living at home that are the super spreaders, and this is where Macron got it right with the Passe Sanitaire and where we're failing, French kids are getting vaxed if they want a social life etc whereas here it's almost cool not to be.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
GottaCatchEmAll wrote:
current PHE data demonstrating what most of us have been seeing all year in that the vaccinated are more likely to catch Sars-CoV-2 than the unvaccinated


I haven't seen any data suggesting that - other than the fact that if 100% of pop'n are vaxxed, 100% of infections are in vaxxed individs. I have certainly not seen anything (from anyone qualified and reliable) that suggests vaccination makes you in any way more susceptible.

Further, from what I have read, your interpretation of how uk counts cases/deaths is not correct. Deaths certainly that are confirmed have had a real actual Dr sign death cert. stating that SARS2 was (a) cause of death. If nothing else a cursory glance at the excess deaths would support the argument.
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Weathercam wrote:
I've always said it's the social teens (16+ who have discovered sex, drugs, rock n'roll) who are living at home that are the super spreaders, and this is where Macron got it right with the Passe Sanitaire and where we're failing, French kids are getting vaxed if they want a social life etc whereas here it's almost cool not to be.


I guess you aren't a parent of a teenager to be so out of touch. 16 and 17 year olds in the UK are not able to get a second vaccine unless they have a health condition or work in healthcare. All the 16 yr olds I know would like a second vaccine and can't get one.

My 19 yr old son at uni is double vaccinated. Anyone who isn't is sent to self isolate for 10 days if they come into contact with a positive case and would therefore miss out on lectures. The hall of residence has a list of who is fully vaccinated.

Covid is spreading most in the 12-16 yr old age group where vaccines are only just being offered.

In my opinion the issues in the UK are 1. government slow to offer first vaccines to 12-15 age group, a major fault at the Wolverhampton PCR lab giving tens of thousands of false negative pcr test results and the lack of mask wearing on public transport (which is certainly not restricted to young people)
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@snowymum, yes, sorry I know kids in the UK have been unable to be vaxed, and hence where Macron got it right, along with the added stimulus to get those 18+ vaxed with the Passe Sanitiare, but I do think that in this demographic there will be a higher propensity of those that don't see the need to, or take actual responsibility, not every one is fortunate to be able to go to Uni, and at Uni there are strict restrictions as you've pointed out.

FWIW I do have twin daughters 31 who comment on this more than me, as they are closer to that demographic and find their actions frustrating too.
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under a new name wrote:
GottaCatchEmAll wrote:
current PHE data demonstrating what most of us have been seeing all year in that the vaccinated are more likely to catch Sars-CoV-2 than the unvaccinated


I haven't seen any data suggesting that - other than the fact that if 100% of pop'n are vaxxed, 100% of infections are in vaxxed individs. I have certainly not seen anything (from anyone qualified and reliable) that suggests vaccination makes you in any way more susceptible.

Further, from what I have read, your interpretation of how uk counts cases/deaths is not correct. Deaths certainly that are confirmed have had a real actual Dr sign death cert. stating that SARS2 was (a) cause of death. If nothing else a cursory glance at the excess deaths would support the argument.


Great comment - if everyone is vaccinated - and people still catch it - the nutters use that skewed data to say " vaccine doesnt work".

Article in Times today pointing out that the majority of young people in hospital are not vaxxed - https://archive.md/FtZLj
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sheffskibod wrote:
...Article in Times today pointing out that the majority of young people in hospital are not vaxxed - https://archive.md/FtZLj


And that sort of confirms what I was alluding to in my post(s) above !!!!
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I think there's a long way to go yet on who has managed the exit wave best. It started with Scotland where a surge occurred as restrictions were eased almost at the same time. It's now running high in the UK and is picking up across the rest of Europe. It could well have a lot to do with the arrival of autumn as we retreat indoors. There are lots of other reasons of course. Here are the % increase in case numbers for a selection of countries across Europe in the last 7 days:

UK 19%
Germany 36%
France 10 %
Netherlands 37 %
Belgium 62 %
Poland 78%
Italy 14%
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Vax is great.
Vax is not perfect.....but I repeat:

Vax is great

From that article

"For vaccinated people in their thirties, the rate of hospitalisations was 3.2 per 100,000. For those unvaccinated, it was more than four times higher at 13.4"
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under a new name wrote:
GottaCatchEmAll wrote:
current PHE data demonstrating what most of us have been seeing all year in that the vaccinated are more likely to catch Sars-CoV-2 than the unvaccinated


I haven't seen any data suggesting that - other than the fact that if 100% of pop'n are vaxxed, 100% of infections are in vaxxed individs. I have certainly not seen anything (from anyone qualified and reliable) that suggests vaccination makes you in any way more susceptible.

Further, from what I have read, your interpretation of how uk counts cases/deaths is not correct. Deaths certainly that are confirmed have had a real actual Dr sign death cert. stating that SARS2 was (a) cause of death. If nothing else a cursory glance at the excess deaths would support the argument.


Correctamundo. What appears to be being trotted out here is known as the base rate fallacy. See https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct2dkb
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Weathercam wrote:
@snowymum, yes, sorry I know kids in the UK have been unable to be vaxed, and hence where Macron got it right, along with the added stimulus to get those 18+ vaxed with the Passe Sanitiare, but I do think that in this demographic there will be a higher propensity of those that don't see the need to, or take actual responsibility, not every one is fortunate to be able to go to Uni, and at Uni there are strict restrictions as you've pointed out.

FWIW I do have twin daughters 31 who comment on this more than me, as they are closer to that demographic and find their actions frustrating too.


Completely agree with your comments on why Macron got elements right - I do find it strange that we were so quick to get the vaccination programme going, but slow to roll it out to 12+.

However, I'm not sure about the comment bolded out though - it's only anecdotal through seeing my nephews and nieces, and their friends (18-22yrs), they generally have a good level of responsibility regarding getting vaccinated (especially in relation to the chances of them getting ill) - i think the rates of vaccination are higher amongst the older age groups as they are much more likely to become ill, and if the virus worked in reverse (effecting the young not the old), I think the levels of take up (or responsibility) would be a lot lower in the older groups than we are seeing in the younger groups now.

As an aside, I saw a BBC chart over the past few days, which showed that (despite the later start), the 18-24yrs have overtaken the 25-29yrs group in term of % vaccination, and are closing in on the 30-39yrs group.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
FrediKanoute wrote:
We have delayed booking accommodation on our lads weekend as a result of the latest rumblings in the press.


Similar here. I spoke to my accommodation contact in Italy today and his opinion was that the Italians are leaning towards doing what Morocco has just done to UK. Evidently the Italian Govt makes their announcements on Friday afternoons so maybe today we'll see which alpine nation blinks first, because someone will for sure. It wasn't that long ago that Italy were making us do 5 day quarantine on the way in so wouldn't be at all surprised if that was reprised. And knowing how touchy Austria are about Covid, don't be surprised if they don't copy.

On the plus side, everyone I know over 60 is getting texts to book booster jab but, really sorry to say and not what anyone wants to hear, I can only foresee disruption to ski travel on the horizon.

Personally I'm going back to avoiding crowds which has made my mind up about going to the ski show at the NEC - thousands of skiers in a confined space potentially helping to kill their own travel opportunities. Hmmm.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Handy Turnip wrote:
Completely agree with your comments on why Macron got elements right - I do find it strange that we were so quick to get the vaccination programme going, but slow to roll it out to 12+.
The government started the roll-out for 12-15 year olds as soon as they were advised to do so by the Chief Medical Officers of the home nations. Since then the School Vaccination Service in England seems to have been slower than the arrangements in Scotland, were children that age were invited to use the mass vaccination centres rather than rely on school-based jabs. That changes for England, and from this (or next?) week 12-15 years in England can also use the mass vaccination centres, subject to getting an appointment.


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Fri 22-10-21 10:02; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
snowhound wrote:
@Mr.Egg, 2 weeks 'firebreak' (because that's basically what you're talking about), didn't do much good for Wales last year. It is now pretty clear that it is indoor social mixing which drives covid spread, not walking past momentarily a maskless stranger in a shop. Unless you stop households mixing indoors, any other mitigation is like p@ssing in a storm.
And just because you give two weeks advanced notice, does not allow make up for all the lost earnings and the hit on consumer confidence.


the firebreak came to late. Timing is key. Early = shorter lockdowns.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Pruman, I think Austria need to look closer to home, their case rate has increased by 47% in the last 7 days, yesterday's case numbers like for like with UK population were 16k. That's happening now with only a slack handful of British skiers on glaciers.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
[quote="snowymum"]
Weathercam wrote:
I've always said it's the social teens (16+ who have discovered sex, drugs, rock n'roll) who are living at home that are the super spreaders, and this is where Macron got it right with the Passe Sanitaire and where we're failing, French kids are getting vaxed if they want a social life etc whereas here it's almost cool not to be.


I guess you aren't a parent of a teenager to be so out of touch. 16 and 17 year olds in the UK are not able to get a second vaccine unless they have a health condition or work in healthcare. All the 16 yr olds I know would like a second vaccine and can't get one.

My 19 yr old son at uni is double vaccinated. Anyone who isn't is sent to self isolate for 10 days if they come into contact with a positive case and would therefore miss out on lectures. The hall of residence has a list of who is fully vaccinated.

Covid is spreading most in the 12-16 yr old age group where vaccines are only just being offered.

In my opinion the issues in the UK are 1. government slow to offer first vaccines to 12-15 age group, a major fault at the Wolverhampton PCR lab giving tens of thousands of false negative pcr test results and the lack of mask wearing on public transport (which is certainly not restricted to young people)[/quote]

Am on a train form Leeds to London and I reckon mask wearing is at 50% on a carriage that is 70% full. People not wearing masks are all ages. The LNER staff aren't wearing masks.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I repeat... the hard yards on vaccination has been done. Yes a few more will be done, we can go younger, give boosters. So why still have restrictions, how long are they going to last?

Genuine question... to which I'd rather the answer wasn't depends...

My experience... our volleyball season is back in full swing. That means groups of people (7-9) travelling in shared cars to other areas to share the air in a closed space with another mixed group for 2 hours.

And this will be happening with several other indoor sports.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
rob@rar wrote:
That changes for England, and from this (or next?) week 12-15 years in England can also use the mass vaccination centres, subject to getting an appointment.


Yes, it's this week - our 13 year old couldn't get vaccinated at school as she'd had covid too recently before, so we tried to book her in - the system only came back with 3 dates over the next 2 weeks!
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Took my 12 y/o to walk-in vaccination centre yesterday in London. It was a large place, full of staff, and completely deserted. I suspect this was because:

a) they didn't tell anyone about the walk-in session for 12-15 (I only discovered it by chance);
b) the session was between 1pm and 5pm, so mostly during school hours when the kids couldn't go anyway...
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@FrediKanoute, the thing is the socio-demographic of parents with teenagers on this forum (taking kids skiing / going to uni) is somewhat different to the National average and probably a more responsible one too, and the hospital figures are showing that that majority of those hospitalised are young and unvaccinated.

That said, being vaccinated does not stop you from catching it and then spreading it, I'm just surmising that the behaviour of sub 25yr olds who maybe are not so responsible is helping the spread of it, even if they are vaccinated they could well be partying en masse in the Uni bar as they feel invincible etc?

And then how is France so different, if being vaccinated still lets you be contagious etc or is it this waning effect that the UK is seeing first, that's what I don't quite understand.
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@Weathercam, 19 to 25s in UK is actually going down. The biggest rise in cases is secondary school age children closely followed by junior school age. There is a small increase in parental age for these children.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22october2021
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@Weathercam,
Quote:

and the hospital figures are showing that that majority of those hospitalised are young and unvaccinated.


Not according to the ONS...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals#hospital-admissions-by-age

The unvaccinated bit may be correct, but hospital admissions are overwhelmingly older in the UK, as are deaths.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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I see that the AY.4.2, the so-called Delta+ variant has been declared a Variant Under Investigation, one step below Variant of Concern, by Public Health England. They estimate 6% of new infections are caused by this variant, and it might well be more transmissible than Delta. If there is anything which is likely to cause restrictions on international travel from or to the UK it will be a new and more transmissible variant.

Not good news Sad
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@rob@rar, balls.
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Timmycb5 wrote:
@rob@rar, balls.


Numbers already falling - https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1451280192090120195?s=21.

Arrived in Denmark and fizzled out.

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@andy from embsay, fingers crossed. Like everyone on this forum, no doubt, I am DESPERATE to get to the mountains.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@andy from embsay, I do so hope that trend continues. It’s only now been declared a VUI, and there have been a few of those which have previously arisen and then fairly quickly disappeared, so let’s hope that this variant heads the same way.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Never let science get in the way of Government decision making
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
rob@rar wrote:
@andy from embsay, I do so hope that trend continues. It’s only now been declared a VUI, and there have been a few of those which have previously arisen and then fairly quickly disappeared, so let’s hope that this variant heads the same way.


Has it been declared a VUI? I was looking for the latest Technical Briefing and could only find last week’s (where it’s “monitoring”)?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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andy from embsay wrote:
rob@rar wrote:
@andy from embsay, I do so hope that trend continues. It’s only now been declared a VUI, and there have been a few of those which have previously arisen and then fairly quickly disappeared, so let’s hope that this variant heads the same way.


Has it been declared a VUI? I was looking for the latest Technical Briefing and could only find last week’s (where it’s “monitoring”)?
Yes, declared VUI earlier today. News from Reuters.
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@rob@rar, fact it died down/out in DK suggests it’s less competitive.
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under a new name wrote:
@rob@rar, fact it died down/out in DK suggests it’s less competitive.
Hope so. It reached 2.5% of new infections in Denmark before declining. PHE (or whatever it is called these day) estimates it has reached 6% in the UK (England?), hence labelling it as a VUI. But there have been a few variants which also reached this level of interest, including the rather more scary Beta, and they dwindled to insignificance, so hope this goes the same way.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
rob@rar wrote:
under a new name wrote:
@rob@rar, fact it died down/out in DK suggests it’s less competitive.
Hope so. It reached 2.5% of new infections in Denmark before declining. PHE (or whatever it is called these day) estimates it has reached 6% in the UK (England?), hence labelling it as a VUI. But there have been a few variants which also reached this level of interest, including the rather more scary Beta, and they dwindled to insignificance, so hope this goes the same way.


I think it hit almost 8% in UK but is falling now. Haven’t seen today’s chart.

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@rob@rar, was well discussed by some of the knowledgeable folks I follow on Twatter and certainly at the time none of them thought it was terribly worrying (although we have been there before).
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I've read the tweets as well but sometimes it's more about the perception - sitting in an alpine country with low rates seeing this AY4.2 VUI playing out in a country with sky high rates and partially/un-vaccinated teenagers, I wonder if I might err on the side of caution. Hopefully not. But I found myself having to cancel a summer trip to CH on account of my unvaccinated kids having to quarantine because of Delta, even though Delta was already rapidly and unavoidably becoming the dominant strain in CH. So I'm not counting my chickens but equally hoping it all dies down like it should.
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Third dose of the vaccine is critical.
Israel had rocketing numbers in the summer as the protection from the second dose vaned after 6 months. They started giving the third dose to the elderly, quickly started giving boosters to everyone. The infections tumbled down. We'll have to wait and see in January / February if another boost is needed or the third dose gives a longer period of protection.
People that have received the second dose in Feb/March still have some protection against severe illness but little protection from contracting the virus
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Skimum1 wrote:
I've read the tweets as well but sometimes it's more about the perception - sitting in an alpine country with low rates seeing this AY4.2 VUI playing out in a country with sky high rates and partially/un-vaccinated teenagers, I wonder if I might err on the side of caution. Hopefully not. But I found myself having to cancel a summer trip to CH on account of my unvaccinated kids having to quarantine because of Delta, even though Delta was already rapidly and unavoidably becoming the dominant strain in CH. So I'm not counting my chickens but equally hoping it all dies down like it should.


I think this one’ll be long gone by the season.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Pruman wrote:
FrediKanoute wrote:
We have delayed booking accommodation on our lads weekend as a result of the latest rumblings in the press.


Similar here. I spoke to my accommodation contact in Italy today and his opinion was that the Italians are leaning towards doing what Morocco has just done to UK. Evidently the Italian Govt makes their announcements on Friday afternoons so maybe today we'll see which alpine nation blinks first, because someone will for sure. It wasn't that long ago that Italy were making us do 5 day quarantine on the way in so wouldn't be at all surprised if that was reprised. And knowing how touchy Austria are about Covid, don't be surprised if they don't copy.


Interestingly, Morocco has also put those restrictions on Germany and the Netherlands. A lot of hoteliers are going to be nervous if the same is applied elsewhere.
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sugardaddy wrote:
Third dose of the vaccine is critical.
Israel had rocketing numbers in the summer as the protection from the second dose vaned after 6 months


Vaned? Is that pronounced in a German accent? Puzzled Toofy Grin
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The US is adopting a blanket travel policy that relies on vaccination to grant entry to the US.
https://www.rte.ie/news/us/2021/1026/1255870-us-travel-restrictions/

It would be quite surprising (to me at least) if the EU took a different approach.

Good news?
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