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Is the 2021/2022 in doubt ?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

There is a fundamental problem with the notion that we should shut our borders for the foreseeable future in order to become 'covid zero'.

Classic straw man. Nobody is advocating closing our borders for the foreseeable future. Where has all this hysteria sprung from, all of a sudden?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:
Like in Scotland & Wales, banning travel between one council area & the next (this being said to 'strengthen democratic accountability').


Reference for this? Council boundary rule is just a (crude) means of limiting travel and hence slow spread of the virus as fas as I'm aware.

NZ or Oz situation would be quite welcome right now, I'd be perfectly happy to trade travel for that. We can't travel anyway! Friends of ours in Oz are busying getting on with their lives, eating out, travelling within country.... supporting the economy in the process.... whilst we all just sit at home as thousands of small (and large) businesses go bust. Exit strategy is an issue for sure. But seems obvious to me they are in a far better position.... being able to vaccinate the population before gradually opening up foreign travel.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@JackSkier, Covid had not been proven to be seasonal or affected by climatological factors, South Africa and the UK had outbreaks that coincided, Singapore has had outbreaks, the Antarctic research station has had an outbreak, all climatological regions have suffered. Maybe r is up slightly in winter due to people spending slightly more time indoors, but this affect has so far been impossible to separate from the effects of the differing levels of restrictions. People claiming that coronavirus is seasonal do annoy as this is usually a pretext for arguing that we should drop all restrictions when there is scant evidence of seasonality
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pam w wrote:
Quote:

There is a fundamental problem with the notion that we should shut our borders for the foreseeable future in order to become 'covid zero'.

Classic straw man. Nobody is advocating closing our borders for the foreseeable future. Where has all this hysteria sprung from, all of a sudden?


Ours are a different issue but certainly for those of our colleagues who are in the EU, the "dark red" zones that VdL proposed are border controls in all but name.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
rambotion wrote:
@JackSkier, Covid had not been proven to be seasonal or affected by climatological factors, South Africa and the UK had outbreaks that coincided, Singapore has had outbreaks, the Antarctic research station has had an outbreak, all climatological regions have suffered. Maybe r is up slightly in winter due to people spending slightly more time indoors, but this affect has so far been impossible to separate from the effects of the differing levels of restrictions. People claiming that coronavirus is seasonal do annoy as this is usually a pretext for arguing that we should drop all restrictions when there is scant evidence of seasonality


From an EU summary of the scientific studies carried out on this subject: "early COVID-19 spread, mainly driven by close contact with infected persons and fomites, was
statistically found to be linked to ambient outdoor solar radiation, temperatures and air humidity indicating
direct or indirect relationship (in that increased solar radiation and temperatures also influence behaviour)." (https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/eur-scientific-and-technical-research-reports/do-environmental-factors-such-weather-conditions-and-air-pollution-influence-covid-19)

Australia had just over 2,000 influenza deaths between 1997 and 2016. The UK averages just under 20,000 per year. Coronavirus is believed to behave in a similar way to flu.

There is a reason why there has been a massive resurgence of the virus in almost all Western countries over the last few months in spite of increasingly draconian measures.

Nowhere have I suggested that we drop all restrictions; nevertheless, I believe there is considerable evidence to suggest that this virus behaves in a seasonal manner and is affected by climatological factors.
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@rambotion, I apologise for the tone of my post, I had not seen that paper or any other credible source arguing that the timing of this wave was anything more than coincidence
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Wish I could agree that "nobody is advocating closing our borders for the foreseeable future."
I get the impression today that many people are advocating exactly that.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
rambotion wrote:
@rambotion, I apologise for the tone of my post, ...

Schizophrenia, or just talking to yourself? Very Happy
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According to Paul Charles, a travel journalist, a “Covid 0” group exists within UK government, led by Gove and Hancock:

https://twitter.com/ppaulcharles/status/1352552150564536322?s=21

According to Charles, this group has advocated closing the border entirely, hotel quarantine for 14 days, electronic tags to ensure quarantine is adhered to. An announcement is expected on Monday - probably going for the 14 day enforced hotel quarantine for anyone entering UK, both residents and foreigners.

The logic is supposedly to guard against more variants entering the Uk from overseas. This logic suggests these measures would be for a medium to long period of time, as new variants will emerge all over the world for several months and years to come.
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Not sure it is necessarily for a medium to long period - perhaps just to buy time to see if the current vaccines work against these particular variants.
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Android2000 wrote:
According to Paul Charles, a travel journalist, a “Covid 0” group exists within UK government, led by Gove and Hancock:

https://twitter.com/ppaulcharles/status/1352552150564536322?s=21

According to Charles, this group has advocated closing the border entirely, hotel quarantine for 14 days, electronic tags to ensure quarantine is adhered to. An announcement is expected on Monday - probably going for the 14 day enforced hotel quarantine for anyone entering UK, both residents and foreigners.

The logic is supposedly to guard against more variants entering the Uk from overseas. This logic suggests these measures would be for a medium to long period of time, as new variants will emerge all over the world for several months and years to come.


I am not commenting on what I think of that idea, right or wrong. But for it to actually really work in reality, it would have to apply to everybody. A virus is equally happy to hitch a ride to the UK with a lorry driver or a politician or a businessman as a tourist or a holidaymaker. I cannot see that it would operate in practice as you couldn't quarantine all lorry drivers for 14 days, and I can't see politicians or Chief Execs agreeing to it.

So my personal view, right or wrong, is that in practice a total lockdown of the UK is unlikely to happen, and a "tourist lockdown" of the UK is pointless
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@JohnHSmith, I wish I could agree but:

the amount of politician travelling is low in absolute terms, even the amount of lorry drivers is low in absolute terms.
Unrestricted (pre CV) tourism is a huge number of to-ings and fro-ings.

Even if you allow vital business/political/diplomatic and lorry traffic and close off tourism that would probably reduce 90+% of cross border movements.

IF (please God don't let it be so) the government go for a Covid Zero policy then staycations will be the only 'cations.



Personally I am totally fekked off with the whole concept...if we have vaccinated the necessary people to reduce deaths and hospitalisations by 90% which is expected by March then add a month for safety and Let Me Out!
Frankly speaking CV will be endemic now for the rest of our lives. Some people will get it, of which a subset will get ill enough for hospital, and of which a sub-subset will die.
Such is life...people die.

I think it is something like 2,000 die every year in traffic accidents, that is a "price" society puts on the speed of movement.
I think that something like 20,000 a year die of flu
CV isn't flu (at the moment) but if we get the vaccine done then it sort of will be and we just have to accept those deaths and get back to living.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:

There is a fundamental problem with the notion that we should shut our borders for the foreseeable future in order to become 'covid zero'.

Nobody's suggested that. At least, nobody remotely sensible.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@rungsp, with you 100%.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:
Some people will get it, of which a subset will get ill enough for hospital, and of which a sub-subset will die.
Such is life...people die.


You missed the subset of people who get it, don’t get ill enough for hospital.... but are still not well months later. A more real risk for many of us on here.
ski holidays
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@paulo, any nasty viral infection can do that, it's not just a CV thing.

I don't want it, you don't want it....but we might get it.
Endemic...it's never going away.
Mitigate risk....you cannot eliminate it.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pam w wrote:
I think the Olympics are doomed.


Not doomed - as they could take place behind closed doors, like the football and test cricket, currently.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
rungsp wrote:
@paulo, any nasty viral infection can do that, it's not just a CV thing.

It's not Covid specific. But no other viral infection had been as infectious or as easily transmitted!

That's what makes Covid different.

Only a small subset of the infected will get seriously ill, even smaller will die. But when you have a incredibly infectious virus doing rounds in the entire world, that's a whole lot of people that will get very ill and die!

That's why the vaccine is so critical. Putting up a barrier on the transmission of the virus, without having to put up with lockdown/restriction.
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@rungsp, I also agree with your comments!
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Bergmeister wrote:
pam w wrote:
I think the Olympics are doomed.


Not doomed - as they could take place behind closed doors, like the football and test cricket, currently.


Not comparable.
It costs millions to host the olympics.
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@Mr.Egg, Billions....
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Quote:

Billions....


Yep. Does it need to though if behind closed doors? Remove the cost of stadiums, opening ceremony, closing ceremony, infrastructure etc. Get rid of a host city and have a host country or even multiple countries to make things more manageable. Of course is it still the Olympics if you make these changes? I'm sure for the athletes they'd rather this than no Olympics.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
[quote="boarder2020"]
Quote:

I'm sure for the athletes they'd rather this than no Olympics.


Well yes, dosh is dosh after all. Very Happy
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
But this year, at least, the venues are already built.
Or might they prefer to wait 12 years (or whatever) till they can be slotted in, and have a "proper Olympics in their by-then-old stadia?
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I was referring to going forward rather than Tokyo. I think Tokyo will go ahead at least to some extent. We already see some international sport going ahead with athletes travelling to compete. Of course the Olympics is on another level in terms of numbers which complicates things. Maybe you spread it over a longer time with athletes flying in for a week or so and then leaving.

@charliegolf
I don't think the athletes care about money - there really isn't much money in Olympic sport for the vast majority. It's more a case of being the pinnacle of your sporting career which you've put years of training and dedication into.
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As we seem to be rolling out the vaccine quicker than Europe the government won't mind if we take our next holidays in Britain when the situation improves as it will also help the economy. I'm sure we can all manage one or two holidays here before the world opens up.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The chances of the Whole or Europe inc UK being vaccinated by the Summer (July/August) are extremely unlikely..

Folks even if vaccinated would still need to provide PCR test confirming they are not carrying the Virus.


Millions of people travelling around Europe in the Summer is unlikely ...

Vaccinating all the Adults only leave the Kids left for the Virus to attack ....

The whole situation is to risky for an relaxation until Q4 2021 at the earliest...
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
If I can't go skiing in Feb 2022 I'm going to go get my pitchfork and have me a good old fashioned riot.

My personal opinion is that we (the world) are never going to get to zero covid. I suspect the future will be regular mass vaccinations against new strains but will get back to some semblance of "normality". If we can't open up a bit once all of the vulnerable and most adults have received the vaccine, then I do question what the point of it all is.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Timmycb5 wrote:
If I can't go skiing in Feb 2022 I'm going to go get my pitchfork and have me a good old fashioned riot.



A riot?

You mean like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2021/jan/25/anti-lockdown-rioters-clash-with-dutch-police-in-the-netherlands-video

@stanton...tell us more, please do...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
rungsp wrote:
Timmycb5 wrote:
If I can't go skiing in Feb 2022 I'm going to go get my pitchfork and have me a good old fashioned riot.



A riot?

You mean like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2021/jan/25/anti-lockdown-rioters-clash-with-dutch-police-in-the-netherlands-video

@stanton...tell us more, please do...


Hmm. Water cannons in winter doesn’t sound very good.

I’m not a it lockdown though, just desperate to ski. So desperate I even took some snow blades to the local hill yesterday and ski in 2 inches of slush Laughing
ski holidays
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
So desperate I even took some snow blades to the local hill yesterday and ski in 2 inches of slush
Photos or it didn't happen... Laughing
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pam w wrote:
Quote:

There is a fundamental problem with the notion that we should shut our borders for the foreseeable future in order to become 'covid zero'.

Nobody's suggested that. At least, nobody remotely sensible.


Depends what is meant by 'foreseeable future'. The NZ Prof in this video sounds sensible - and does suggest Covid Zero, until the vaccines have done their job. He points out that countries with large populations have successfully applied the policy. Now this video is promoted dedicated to the cause of Covid Zero, even so it does present a case to answer.


http://youtube.com/v/BgV2RQmrJqE

We have drifted somewhat OT, though.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:
any nasty viral infection can do that, it's not just a CV thing.


I hope the comparison is right, but I'm not so sure yet. CV is circulating much more widely than other viral infections that can cause complications. Plus the proportion of people who go on to suffer long term symptoms seems like it might be higher, the nature of the symptoms very diverse, and the cause and future course of the long-term symptoms not yet known.
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mountainaddict wrote:
Quote:
So desperate I even took some snow blades to the local hill yesterday and ski in 2 inches of slush
Photos or it didn't happen... Laughing
I would if I could work out how to upload a photo!
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stanton wrote:

Millions of people travelling around Europe in the Summer is unlikely ...

Vaccinating all the Adults only leave the Kids left for the Virus to attack ....

The whole situation is to risky for an relaxation until Q4 2021 at the earliest...


Wonder how that will affect places like Greece where they usually get about 3x the amount of visitors than their population.
Turkey could do well out of it, as many of their complexes dont have people leaving the boundaries!

I think there will be travel corridors & I think hosting countries will put in their rules - ie vaccination mandatory along with a negative test, etc.
SAGA who do cruises for old people, have already said you need a vaccine to travel - however, there is still the possibility Ships will be denied berthing.

Going to be interesting for DIY options with more rules to navigate.
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UK Gov are quite clearly currently managing our expectations re summer hols abroad. I don't think they want us leaving these islands at all fearing yet more new variants. It matters not whether we are all vaccinated or not, a new variant might not respond. So speaking with a friend in the travel biz earlier, the consensus is that remainder of this ski season is definitely off, summer is probably off and the hope is that that means winter 21/22 more possible.
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For want of a better place to put it, there are reports in Germany of clandestine winter holidays going on, particularly around Bad Tölz. The suggestion is that people are taking cash-in-hand for accommodation. Article in German for those interested.
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/wolfratshausen/bad-toelz-wolfratshausen-corona-urlaub-1.5186040
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Some context of the EU vaccination programme:

https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/
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Quote:

But no other viral infection had been as infectious or as easily transmitted!


For respiratory viruses that may well be the case, but measles has Covid 19 beat hands down - R rates are circa 20.
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@mitcva, excellent read.
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