 Poster: A snowHead
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Current estimates I've seen in the press are that there could be c. 100k cases/day again in France at present,
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This is similar to those in England which are running at roughly 62,000 per day - the latest ONS estimates are given in https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/23october2020
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1. Main points
The number of infections continues to increase; an estimated 433,300 people (95% credible interval: 407,500 to 459,300) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 10 to 16 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 130 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 130 to 1 in 120).
There has been growth in COVID-19 infection rates in all age groups over the past two weeks including those aged over 70 years, with the current rates highest in older teenagers and young adults.
The highest COVID-19 infection rates continue to be seen in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, and the North East.
During the most recent week (10 to 16 October 2020), we estimate there were around 6.46 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 5.46 to 8.55) in the community population in England, equating to around 35,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 29,800 to 46,600).
The incidence rate has continued to increase in recent weeks.
In England, an estimated 5.6% (95% confidence interval 5.0% to 6.2%) of people would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in September, suggesting they had the infection in the past; the highest antibody positivity was seen in London, followed by the North East, Yorkshire and The Humber and the North West.
The number of infections in Wales has increased in recent weeks; during the most recent week (10 to 16 October 2020), we estimate that 16,700 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 7,600 to 30,400), equating to 1 in 180 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 400 to 1 in 100).
In Wales, an estimated 4.2% (95% confidence interval 2.1% to 7.5%) of people would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in September, suggesting they had the infection in the past.
During the most recent two weeks (3 to 16 October 2020), we estimate that 1.01% of people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.64% to 1.50%), which is around 1 in 100 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 160 to 1 in 70).
For the first time we are reporting results for Scotland; during the most recent two weeks (3 to 16 October 2020), we estimate that 0.57% of people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.35% to 0.88%), which is around 1 in 180 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 290 to 1 in 110).
In this bulletin, we refer to the number of current COVID-19 infections within the community population; community in this instance refers to private residential households and it excludes those in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
We use current COVID-19 infections to mean testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, with or without having symptoms, on a swab taken from the nose and throat.
All analysis was produced with our research partners at the University of Oxford
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Macron to speak tomorrow. Standby for more restrictions. Operation Save Noel, perhaps.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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2 weeks away from ICU saturation, typical time to ICU admission is ~2 weeks => lockdown again 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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We are driving tomorrow to Grenoble for a non-urgent surgery as well. Bet it is cancelled just after we arrive!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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JamesHJ
super-snowHead
Posts: 451
2 weeks away from ICU saturation, typical time to ICU admission is ~2 weeks => lockdown again
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In the UK the ICU is at 70% but apparently that is exactly the same as every year, that is why ICU exists we are told. It is also reported that the % of people on ventilators in ICU is only a fraction of the % that were in March/April because treatments are so much better now. Hopefully things are getting better as the amount of deaths is down due to better treatment and drugs being used treating the symptoms.
That doesn't stop the spread though.
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