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Ischgl under investigation

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NickyJ wrote:
This is the gov.uk page

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-guidance-on-access-to-green-spaces?fbclid=IwAR0x1vskA2O9kPPjnlsH2pBVfYzzmvQCS_I80y8Jf9ebBzZj2HyJlrvD1rQ


Yep, common sense really.

I think they will son realise the need to get the most 'at risk' to more isolated areas where they can get deliveries if they can't isolate and get deliveries in cities
Just seen the woman on the news in a big city. Clearly a lad in poor health. Qualified to get on the priority delivery list but.no time slots available. Says she doesn't want to risk going out but doesn't want to starve to death...
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Michael Gove has stated that people can attend their allotments as exercise provided they adhere to the social distancing. Mine is in a quiet part of the site, and I only ever see a couple of passing gardeners whenever I am there. I can walk over some playing fields in 10 minutes, or drive round in a similar time, depending if I am taking tools/plants etc.

If I prepare/plant now and have a crop, I may or may not be able to harvest, but it will still be there. (Worst case, spuds will self set for the following year, but main crop will be safe in the ground until Christmas if it's not too damp). If I don't plant, I will have nothing, so intend to go when I can.

However, I am currently staying at my parents, as their carer, 13 miles away. I went to my garden a couple of days ago, and intend going tomorrow. I will be driving home to pick up a rotavator, then to the site.

Nottinghamshire Police, being zealous, as ever, put in check points the day before the powers were passed. I am expecting to come across a check point tomorrow, but would, technically be going home, and returning to my parents in the evening, having exercise in the interim.

I will report what happens
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cameronphillips2000 wrote:
NickyJ wrote:
This is the gov.uk page

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-guidance-on-access-to-green-spaces?fbclid=IwAR0x1vskA2O9kPPjnlsH2pBVfYzzmvQCS_I80y8Jf9ebBzZj2HyJlrvD1rQ


Yep, common sense really.

I think they will son realise the need to get the most 'at risk' to more isolated areas where they can get deliveries if they can't isolate and get deliveries in cities
Just seen the woman on the news in a big city. Clearly a lad in poor health. Qualified to get on the priority delivery list but.no time slots available. Says she doesn't want to risk going out but doesn't want to starve to death...


Can't always get delivery slots from the big supermarkets in more isolated spots...
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brianatab wrote:
Michael Gove has stated that people can attend their allotments as exercise provided they adhere to the social distancing. Mine is in a quiet part of the site, and I only ever see a couple of passing gardeners whenever I am there. I can walk over some playing fields in 10 minutes, or drive round in a similar time, depending if I am taking tools/plants etc.

If I prepare/plant now and have a crop, I may or may not be able to harvest, but it will still be there. (Worst case, spuds will self set for the following year, but main crop will be safe in the ground until Christmas if it's not too damp). If I don't plant, I will have nothing, so intend to go when I can.

However, I am currently staying at my parents, as their carer, 13 miles away. I went to my garden a couple of days ago, and intend going tomorrow. I will be driving home to pick up a rotavator, then to the site.

Nottinghamshire Police, being zealous, as ever, put in check points the day before the powers were passed. I am expecting to come across a check point tomorrow, but would, technically be going home, and returning to my parents in the evening, having exercise in the interim.

I will report what happens


Some forces went crazy over this and interacted with loads of people. When there was no need for it. It was crazy to close off ooen spaces when we!"re trying to socially distance.
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Friend in Australia who is over 70 and in the 'at risk' group gets food delivery from Woolworths.

Woolworths only delivering to people in 'at risk' groups.

Common sense really.

Obviously not too common in the UK
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surprisingly, Notts police were conspicuous by their absence today. Might be something to do with some Chief Constables late last night apologising for their action in stopping people testerday.
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From BBC news:

A total of 260 British people - most of whom are seasonal workers in ski resorts - were able to fly home from Austria on Saturday.

British citizens were brought to Innsbruck Airport by bus and a police escort in compliance with strict hygiene and safety requirements, the provincial government in Tyrol said said.

The seasonal workers had been based at ski resorts in Paznauntal and St Anton, areas both under quarantine.
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The Italian Deputy Health Minister was inspirational on Marr this morning. A practicing doctor who has had Covid-19 and is now back working again. He talked about who postive cases are rising due to new swab testing but the social isolating is now starting to work.

I did another model on virus spread, adding social distancing after a period. These measures will work, but there will be a lag in the system before we see the downside of the slope


http://youtube.com/v/gHs-51XGnRs&t=6s
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{Michael Gove has stated that people can ...}

He of the "I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best .." quote, enthusiastic applauder of the rejection of increased pay for NHS nurses, and today, defender of the UK not joining the EU ventilator bulk-buying programme.

I am not encouraged by any statement from Mr.Gove.
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Isolated spots are not necessarily the right place for the sick and vulnerable to be shielded. They may be more protected from Covid-19, but what happens when their existing condition needs treatment? There is a shortage of GPs in rural areas, pharmacies are miles away, and struggling to deliver to their existing patients. Cornwall has only one hospital. We can't get delivery slots from any of the supermarkets in Durham on any day for the next 3 weeks, never mind to more isolated areas. People should be remaining at their primary residence.
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cameronphillips2000 wrote:
The Italian Deputy Health Minister was inspirational on Marr this morning. A practicing doctor who has had Covid-19 and is now back working again. He talked about who postive cases are rising due to new swab testing but the social isolating is now starting to work.

I did another model on virus spread, adding social distancing after a period. These measures will work, but there will be a lag in the system before we see the downside of the slope


http://youtube.com/v/gHs-51XGnRs&t=6s


You've obviously thought long and hard about this.

Maybe a 1-2 minute summary vid would be more effective.
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Hells Bells wrote:
Isolated spots are not necessarily the right place for the sick and vulnerable to be shielded. They may be more protected from Covid-19, but what happens when their existing condition needs treatment? There is a shortage of GPs in rural areas, pharmacies are miles away, and struggling to deliver to their existing patients. Cornwall has only one hospital. We can't get delivery slots from any of the supermarkets in Durham on any day for the next 3 weeks, never mind to more isolated areas. People should be remaining at their primary residence.


Is think you may be forgetting that areas with excess holiday accommodation have increased capacity to deal with such.
Areas such as Conrwall and North Norfolk, a fair percentage of people in the county at any time will be in holiday parks, caravans and second homes. In my area in West Norfolk the holiday parks and caravan homes are shut. Leaving just those left in holiday holiday homes. Many of these are reasonably healthy folk who can now isolate successfully whereas is was impossible in the cities.

Many of the 'at risk' are simply elderly or have a manageable condition such as asthma or diabetes. However, these people could become massive burden should they contract Covid-19.
The most important thing to do at this time is avoid passing this thing on to the 'at risk' at risk group.

Both my parents and sister are highly at risk. They are lucky to love in rural areas.
I am slightly at risk, as an asthma sufferer. I live in a city and there are lots of people out if I go so the shop or chemist.

Thankfully, there has been a backlash against the knee jerk reaction to closing open spaces. The Royal parks in London have remained open with guidelines and it's expected the ones that closed last week will re-open.
The government has issued strong guidance on people with mild pre-existing conditions getting in fresh air and exercising to maintain their health and immune system.

The German Air force flew ten people out of Italy yesterday to treat them in Germany in an incredible act.of.humanity.

As the UK goes through the peak period of the virus we, too may.need to move patients and medics.

Sadly, I have witnessed an 'pitch forks out' mentality here in Norfolk where they haven't wanted anyone in their back yard who might have it or or get it
Ironically, my partner, a doc on the local Covid -19 ward told me off two local cases admitted where they'd been down to London, using the tube etc.
Stopping this is about minimising social contact. Not stopping all movement.
Getting people away from the heat, or.moving more into an area to fight the heat may well be part of the solution. As is happening in Italy now.
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Mike Pow wrote:
cameronphillips2000 wrote:
The Italian Deputy Health Minister was inspirational on Marr this morning. A practicing doctor who has had Covid-19 and is now back working again. He talked about who postive cases are rising due to new swab testing but the social isolating is now starting to work.

I did another model on virus spread, adding social distancing after a period. These measures will work, but there will be a lag in the system before we see the downside of the slope


http://youtube.com/v/gHs-51XGnRs&t=6s


You've obviously thought long and hard about this.

Yes, I should probably.do one. I started it as a video on using spreadsheets to model to help students and let then see how individual behaviour can have a massive impact. Talking through the Maths and logic, dull as it is is part of that
It was never meant to be a video on the biref outcomes of the modelling, though perhaps I!should do that as they seem to have been scarily.accurate.

Maybe a 1-2 minute summary vid would be more effective.
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@cameronphillips2000, I am encouraged to hear they are reopening parks. Since the closed the new forest to even cycling or walking into it from our house (both quite achievable), I am seeing a lot more on the local footpaths than normal for a Sunday afternoon walk which we do quite frequently.

Now people can’t go to the gyms, local National Trust gardens, country parks, English Heritage gardens or the national park you are forcing people to be closer together on smaller narrower paths!
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NickyJ wrote:
@cameronphillips2000, I am encouraged to hear they are reopening parks. Since the closed the new forest to even cycling or walking into it from our house (both quite achievable), I am seeing a lot more on the local footpaths than normal for a Sunday afternoon walk which we do quite frequently.

Now people can’t go to the gyms, local National Trust gardens, country parks, English Heritage gardens or the national park you are forcing people to be closer together on smaller narrower paths!


Michael Gove was actually speaking some sense this morning on Marr. He went for a jog last night and went to the park.

There a fine line between restricting movement and restricting social contact. If you kettle people, the social contact goes up. There was a knee jerk against those who flocked in groups to the beaches and parks that led to them being closed.
We need people to only go out only when necessary and stay apart when they do. Gove was talking about going for a cycle this morning - again, this is best done in open spaces so you're not breathing on lots of people on paths as you cycle down a busy road.
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summary video, as requested

https://studio.youtube.com/video/WyqGPEO01XA/edit
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There is some reasonably detailed info about the level of the virus in Austria here https://npgeo-corona-npgeo-de.hub.arcgis.com/app/1b9af672fe1140329ebff73b2ca8d722 (its in German but should be easy to understand as it is mostly graphical). As you can see the largest number of known infections are in the Tirol both in percentage terms and in actual numbers. Unfortunately they have not broken down the figures by the individual areas which has been done here in Germany, so no idea of how many infections in the Ischgl area etc, The scale of things in Austria is far lower than in Italy, Spain and UK and in the past few days the number of identified infections ("Zuwachs Infizierte") as been on a downward trend, have to see whether this continues.
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How Verbier infected the world

https://www.tdg.ch/lematindimanche/weekend-fete-infecte-verbier/story/12110784
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@munich_irish, I can help with that. Today's figures for Tirol (8.30am) are:

Tests for which result is known: 14,226
Positive results: 1891
Recovered: 226
Died: 10

By area:
Innsbruck: 304
Innsbruck-Land: 244
Landeck: 416
Imst: 162
Lienz: 81
Kufstein: 269
Schwaz: 186
Kitzbühel: 194
Reutte: 32

I'm pretty sure that Ischgl and St Anton are included in the Landeck figures.
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davidof wrote:
How Verbier infected the world

https://www.tdg.ch/lematindimanche/weekend-fete-infecte-verbier/story/12110784



It looks increasingly like the main hotspots in Europe and North America for the early explosion of C19 in January / February were ski resorts.

Warm, humid, overcrowded clubs and bars sardined with skiers blowing whistles, sharing drinks, and playing beerpong.

* Ischgl, Austria
* Verbier, Switzerland
* Sun Valley, Idaho, US
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Whitegold wrote:
davidof wrote:
How Verbier infected the world

https://www.tdg.ch/lematindimanche/weekend-fete-infecte-verbier/story/12110784



It looks increasingly like the main hotspots in Europe and North America for the early explosion of C19 in January / February were ski resorts.

Warm, humid, overcrowded clubs and bars sardined with skiers blowing whistles, sharing drinks, and playing beerpong.

* Ischgl, Austria
* Verbier, Switzerland
* Sun Valley, Idaho, US


In France it seems a religious gathering was the center of virus spread but rather than blaming individuals perhaps politicians have some responsibility in all this?

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/03/coronavirus-london-tube-sadiq-khan-12339239/
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Scarlet wrote:
@munich_irish, I can help with that. Today's figures for Tirol (8.30am) are:

Tests for which result is known: 14,226
Positive results: 1891
Recovered: 226
Died: 10

By area:
Innsbruck: 304
Innsbruck-Land: 244
Landeck: 416
Imst: 162
Lienz: 81
Kufstein: 269
Schwaz: 186
Kitzbühel: 194
Reutte: 32

I'm pretty sure that Ischgl and St Anton are included in the Landeck figures.


Yes, Ischgl and St Anton are both in Bezirk Landeck. Guessing you've got the figures from the Tiroler Tagezeitung as they have been good at detailing this kind of stuff in their live corona blog.

I've been following it quite a bit, and yes the majority of infections are in Tirol, but earlier on in the outbreak Tirol made up about a third of all of Austria's infected, where as it's now at about a quarter (although I believe they haven't been testing those in the quarantined gemeinde since the quarantine was but in place just over 2 weeks ago).
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@Whitegold is universally disliked for his sensationalist one-liners.

Too bad none of the political power had read his alarmist declaration 2 months ago.

Had the west took the pandemic seriously and test the hell out of all the travelers from Asia (not just Chinese, but EVERYONE). We could potentially had contained this just as we did with SARS.

Having missed the opportunity to contain it, we're now left to choose between two terrible options: let people die and national health system collapse, vs economical calamity due to the lockdown.

Yes, go ahead and sugarcoat one of the option as "not so bad in the scale of past pendemics"!

Interesting to see people booking for next year's ski trip. They apparently don't think the economy will be too significantly affected. It's another angle of the "can't be that bad in the scale of things". They're actually putting their money where their mouth is, whist others are just typing on their keyboard.


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Sun 29-03-20 20:00; edited 1 time in total
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Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Had it not been the ski resorts,!it would have been St. Patrick's Day, The Cheltenham Festival or Mardis Gras.
The Alps are the centre of European tourism during February. There were also clusters in Tenerife or those cruise ships. The virus was going to get about where people travelled and mingled.
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davidof wrote:


In France it seems a religious gathering was the center of virus spread but rather than blaming individuals perhaps politicians have some responsibility in all this?


The main centre of spread in New York was a society wedding. A guest from South Africa got ill on the way home. In the meantime, most of the guests had attended numerous other functions.

Spain believes most of their infections came from a football match in Norther Italy.

It could have been on the tube, on a bus, in a Pub

The centre of spread is not really relevant. It only took 1 infected person to be present. In the early days, all contacts could be traced if the infection was identified in time. No longer.

The most successful Country to contain the virus appears to be South Korea, but they used methods of tracking and isolation that would not be tolerated in any Western Democracy.
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brianatab wrote:

The most successful Country to contain the virus appears to be South Korea, but they used methods of tracking and isolation that would not be tolerated in any Western Democracy.

What about Japan?

Some suspect they're hiding cases. But I found that hard to believe.
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@abc, Whilst you have someone in the White House who takes his business empire more seriously than the Country, you never had a prayer on stopping it.

State Governors want to shut themselves down, but Trump refuses to accept the true scale, and allow them to.

I suspect the death toll in the USA could surpass that of Europe by a factor of 10 before this is over.
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We only closed 2 weeks ago and from memory were full of germans and eastern europeans as well as french that week. But now our local doctors have advised those still here (normal population about 2000)

Notre situation isolée devrait permettre d’éviter une épidémie de grande envergure. Mais cela dépend en grande partie de vos efforts à tous pour respecter les règles d’hygiène, d’application des mesures barrières et de confinement au maximum. Nous limiterons ainsi la propagation du virus et le risque d’observer des cas graves aux Deux Alpes.

Our isolated situation should prevent a large-scale epidemic. But it largely depends on your collective efforts to comply with hygiene rules, the application of barrier measures and maximum containment. This will limit the spread of the virus and the risk of serious cases in Les Deux Alpes.
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@abc, Japan currently has 1900 confirmed cases, with 56 deaths.

It's primary concern is to avoid the prospect of apparent failure and save face, so may hide some cases.

That's why they took so long to cancel the Olympics, despite the fact that no other Country had looked likely to attend for the previous 3-4 weeks.
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@brianatab, I'm no fan of Trump. But I don't think the detail of how strict the quarantine should be would make too much of a difference.

Too many infected all over the country already. Too late.

At this point, I think we have to accept there will be substantial death toll. And until enough ICU and ventilator can be produced, many unnecessary deaths. And if the report from China is to be believed, unknown number of permanently disabled.

Let's no forget. Chinese communist government had rarely care about the life of their citizen. Yet they risk economic ruin to shut down the whole country. Just to save a few thousand life???
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South Korea was snappy to complete the 4 Ts.

Test.
Treat.
Trace.
Trap.

Europe, not so much.

EU deaths = 24,000
Rest of the entire planet = 10,000

EU makes up 7% of the world's population... 70% of all the world's C19 deaths...


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sun 29-03-20 20:16; edited 1 time in total
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@Claude B, If there were any cases, (most likely) in the period before closure, the local staff must have been in close proximity, and susceptible. Hopefully, the shutdown will have helped prevent too much spread amongst the local population, but I doubt that there will be none.
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Certainly the mairie has confirmed that there were suspected cases in isolation. A brit friend here who manages a busy bar said that many of the staff there had been "ill". I had something for 2 weeks but the symptoms didn't worry me too much, more a cold. Confinement rules appear to be pretty well adhered too.
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@Whitegold, I wouldn't normally bother to respond to you posts, but it's the last 2 T's that most countries would have problems implementing. The final one is the crux. If you lock away anybody who might have had contact, you stop the spread.

I'm sure you would be most vocal if the Security Services were given access to you phone records and allowed to track both you, and anybody who came within 10 feet of you.

btw, my Neice works at a University, with Chinese Students, now all at home. Some of them have reported on social media, that if there were any cases in a housing block, the authorities just placed an empty container blocking the exit. Many blocks have had no access to food for weeks. There have been deaths, some from the virus, some from starvation, but nobody takes the bodies away. The Chinese have simply stopped counting the deaths, thus appearing to have had a reduction in cases. Maybe you would applaud their "success" in containing the virus?

We will never know the true scale of the Chinese epidemic. Remember Tianamen Square? Officially, everyone was dispersed. No injuries. rolling eyes Puzzled


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sun 29-03-20 20:30; edited 1 time in total
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abc wrote:
What about Japan?
Very low rate of testing, the opposite of what South Korea did.
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abc wrote:
brianatab wrote:

The most successful Country to contain the virus appears to be South Korea, but they used methods of tracking and isolation that would not be tolerated in any Western Democracy.

What about Japan?

Some suspect they're hiding cases. But I found that hard to believe.


Having been in touch with friends who had been working in Japan this winter who were talking of people being turned away and declined tests, I'm inclined to believe it. See what happens now the Olympics has been cancelled...
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@brianatab,
The story from your niece's friends sounds like a Clancy thriller such as The Bear and The Dragon.
Having seen Eastern Europe in the 70's and 80's I can believe it.
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Sitter wrote:
abc wrote:
brianatab wrote:

The most successful Country to contain the virus appears to be South Korea, but they used methods of tracking and isolation that would not be tolerated in any Western Democracy.

What about Japan?

Some suspect they're hiding cases. But I found that hard to believe.


Having been in touch with friends who had been working in Japan this winter who were talking of people being turned away and declined tests, I'm inclined to believe it. See what happens now the Olympics has been cancelled...

The precise number isn’t particularly significant. Does Japan have large enough outbreak overwhelming the hospitals? If not, how did the manage that?
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Nemisis wrote:
@brianatab,
The story from your niece's friends sounds like a Clancy thriller such as The Bear and The Dragon.
Having seen Eastern Europe in the 70's and 80's I can believe it.

Very true! When you hear the stories coming out from early on about the virology bio-med lab in Wuhan, have a think about the early efforts at suppression and secretive communist culture (such as what happened in Chernobyl for example), it doesn't take a whole lot of deduction to work out that this is probably an almighty clusterf*ck of monumental proportions.
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brianatab wrote:
@Whitegold, I wouldn't normally bother to respond to you posts, but it's the last 2 T's that most countries would have problems implementing.
/

Why do you see the “trace” as being “problem implementing”

Many country did just that. Not enough, in many cases. But not because they can’t. Only because they didn’t do it early enough or exhaustive enough.

Quote:
The final one is the crux. If you lock away anybody who might have had contact, you stop the spread.

Well, aren’t we all being “locked away” now?

Not just the sick and their contacts, we lock away everyone!
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