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The future of skiing

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@philwig, you have hit on the questions that are raised by the scant numbers we are given. Most UK deaths have been described as "with underlying health conditions". Obviously the older someone is, the more likely they are to have some other issue even if it is normally well controlled. Which health conditions are most risky? Is there a point where age itself does become the bigger risk? Is it the case that smokers are more at risk, as was reported in China? (As with age, it may be the associated conditions - such as COPD - which are the real risk).

One hopes someone is collating this sort of UK hard information, and it would be good if it were disseminated rather than stored up for a future academic analysis.

Similarly, at the beginning of infections in the UK contact tracing was undertaken (including testing at that point). While that data set will be limited collation would allow some useful advice. For example, have most traced infections come from prolonged close contact (such as living in the same household or sharing a workplace) as one would expect? Was there evidence of people catching infections from random contacts such as people standing adjacent in supermarket queues? Was there evidence of people catching it from outdoor contacts such as dogwalkers stopping to chat in the park?

Clearly it is right that actions have been taken to halt the continuing rise in infection rate, particularly among those who are at risk of suffering most (and putting most strain on health resources). But when it gets to the point of introducing police enforced restrictive measures it makes sense that the emphasis is on those most likely to have a substantial effect.
snow report     
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
philwig wrote:
I would not get overly concerned with age specifically - it's a driver for clinical risk, but other things like long term tobacco use are significantly greater drivers. Evidence: differences in longevity between different geographic/ social areas; the existence of patient Risk Stratification.


obesity may be a risk factor, 63% of critically ill corona virus patients are fat according to the NHS. Fat people are pretty wheezy at the best of times.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Tue 24-03-20 11:55; edited 1 time in total
ski holidays     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@j b, https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8.pdf "We therefore hypothesise that diabetes and hypertension treatment with ACE2-stimulating drugs increases the risk of developing severe and fatal COVID-19."

(SARS2 binds to target cells thru ACE2). The Italian experience as published showed HBP and diabetes as significant co-morbidities.
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davidof wrote:
philwig wrote:
I would not get overly concerned with age specifically - it's a driver for clinical risk, but other things like long term tobacco use are significantly greater drivers. Evidence: differences in longevity between different geographic/ social areas; the existence of patient Risk Stratification.


obesity may be a risk factor, 67% of critically ill corona virus patients are fat according to the NHS. Fat people are pretty wheezy at the best of times.


But 64.3% of the U.K. population were classed as overweight or obese in 2017.
ski holidays     
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
8611 wrote:

Will resorts and businesses in them survive the early shut down this year?


this is going to be a big factor... it depends how much support there is from the govt. The French govt. says they will save Air France at whatever cost, but what about other airlines and travel cos?
ski holidays     
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Ionizingskin wrote:
The skiing industry should be focusing on getting its own house in order first regardless of what happens with corona.

Ski resorts have been spreading unabated like a virus chewing up the mountainside for far too long anyway. In France? No, not for some time (years).

Needs to be rules limiting the length of chairlifts and how many can be built in a given area and how many resorts can exist within a given distance of each other. There are, on all 3 counts

Chairlifts should be seen as primarily a way to get people to learn how to ski but people of a good ability should be encouraged to earn their turns, skin up and actuallyk now what it feels like to ski down real snow on a mountain rather than artificial groomed stuff.

Even if marginally realistic, that would bring a whole different set of environmental challenges c.f. Mont Blanc, Everest

The environmental cost of skiing with all the travelling and accommodation taken into account is unjustifiably huge. No one heeded the warnings about pandemics that have been there for everyone to see for decades - people are doing the same thing with climate change which will make Corona Virus look like a Sunday picnic. The skiing industry (including pressure from the actual skiers themselves) should be doing the responsible thing instead of constantly pushing for more numbers, more chairlifts, more crappy bars getting people tanked up, more profit. I think you'll find that's your imagination overlooking reality. To address one tiny point, how does the environmental cost of skiing compare with the environmental cost of foreign stag and hen weekends? (Seriously).

Love skiing, hate the industry.
snow report     
 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Figures were mainly type 2, having well controlled type 1 diabetes only seems to show a slight increase in death rates. Also some interesting reading on statins.
https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/articles/2020/03/18/15/09/is-there-a-role-for-statin-therapy-in-acute-viral-infections-covid-19
snow conditions     
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Some interesting last posts. Hopefully data is being collected and we will have a more accurate picture of which underlying conditions put people at highest risk at some point. I wouldn't be surprised if you are right that it's not so much age, but simply older people are more likely to have preexisting conditions.

Quote:

Even if marginally realistic, that would bring a whole different set of environmental challenges c.f. Mont Blanc, Everest


Not really. The issue with Everest is high number of people, people having to live on the mountain, and people limited to a short weather window. Assuming people are going home at the end of each day carrying out their rubbish ski touring is very low impact. Unlike Everest everyone is not heading to the same peak to ski the same lines (in fact the opposite is true for most, they are looking to avoid crowds) and backcountry ski areas are huge so people are naturally spread out.

Quote:

To address one tiny point, how does the environmental cost of skiing compare with the environmental cost of foreign stag and hen weekends? (Seriously).


I don't see what is to be gained by comparing skiing to other things (although I imagine the carbon footprint of a weekend flying of to the Alps skiing are similar to flying of for a stag weekend drinking). The fact is skiing does increase your carbon footprint and is completely avoidable for those wanting to prioritise environmental concerns.
ski holidays     
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under a new name wrote:
Ionizingskin wrote:
The skiing industry should be focusing on getting its own house in order first regardless of what happens with corona.

Ski resorts have been spreading unabated like a virus chewing up the mountainside for far too long anyway. In France? No, not for some time (years).

Needs to be rules limiting the length of chairlifts and how many can be built in a given area and how many resorts can exist within a given distance of each other. There are, on all 3 counts

Chairlifts should be seen as primarily a way to get people to learn how to ski but people of a good ability should be encouraged to earn their turns, skin up and actuallyk now what it feels like to ski down real snow on a mountain rather than artificial groomed stuff.

Even if marginally realistic, that would bring a whole different set of environmental challenges c.f. Mont Blanc, Everest



The environmental cost of skiing with all the travelling and accommodation taken into account is unjustifiably huge. No one heeded the warnings about pandemics that have been there for everyone to see for decades - people are doing the same thing with climate change which will make Corona Virus look like a Sunday picnic. The skiing industry (including pressure from the actual skiers themselves) should be doing the responsible thing instead of constantly pushing for more numbers, more chairlifts, more crappy bars getting people tanked up, more profit. I think you'll find that's your imagination overlooking reality. To address one tiny point, how does the environmental cost of skiing compare with the environmental cost of foreign stag and hen weekends? (Seriously).

Love skiing, hate the industry.


Agree with your responses UANN.

Particularly the point about ski areas "unabated chewing up the mounainside" when just a very cursory look challenges that.
For the OP to say that with any conviction would need in depth data to be given in support.
Their statement to that end is just fallacy. Even just standing on the periphery of the largest ski areas in Europe you are struck by the vastness of surroundings that absolutely dwarf that which you are using to ski.
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ski3 wrote:


Particularly the point about ski areas "unabated chewing up the mounainside" when just a very cursory look challenges that.


This year has seen the planning applications (SCOT) for the Aravis and Oisans which would mean significant construction of apartment blocks and lifts as well as the Scot for the Maurienne.

Here's some information on the Maurienne project

http://pistehors.com/TLDhr20ByuHDGsGAJ3F3/maurienne-goes-back-to-the-past

The croix du sud extension wasn't approved but the project will mean a huge extension in the valley. The Oisans project was largely rejected but local politicians vowed to go ahead anyway. The Aravis link aims to turn la Clusaz / le Grand Bornand into an international ski resort to rival Courchevel.

These are just 3 of a number of French projects fit for another epoch.

In Austria there is the Pitztal-Ötztal glacier mega project.

It is like the local landowners have said "fookit, with global warming there will be no skiing in our areas in 10 years, we've gotta cash in now on those gullible apartment buyers".

Maybe you need to make more than a cursory look?


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Tue 24-03-20 12:34; edited 2 times in total
snow conditions     
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@j b,
Quote:

@philwig, you have hit on the questions that are raised by the scant numbers we are given. Most UK deaths have been described as "with underlying health conditions". Obviously the older someone is, the more likely they are to have some other issue even if it is normally well controlled. Which health conditions are most risky? Is there a point where age itself does become the bigger risk? Is it the case that smokers are more at risk, as was reported in China? (As with age, it may be the associated conditions - such as COPD - which are the real risk).

One hopes someone is collating this sort of UK hard information, and it would be good if it were disseminated rather than stored up for a future academic analysis.

Check out yesterday's Monday 23rd update from Dr John Campbell

Contracted cases

Agecontracted%
0-18 1.2%
19-50 24%
51-7037.3%
>7037.6%


Death (Case Fatality Rate)

AgedeathsItaly CFRChina CFR
0-900%0%
10-1900%0.2%
20-2900%0.2%
30-3940.3%0.2%
40-49100.4%0.4%
50-59431.0%1.3%
60-691393.5%3.6%
70-7957812.5%8%
80-8969419.7%14.8%
90-9815622.7%.
Total1,6257.2%.


http://youtube.com/v/-60EvBSLulo
ski holidays     
 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@davidof, Interesting, but it's not "unabated" is it?

@boarder2020, afaics,

1. on a smaller scale Mont Blanc is suffering a similar problem to Everest, to the extent that climbing it is (or is likely to be) significantly restricted.

2. The popular rando routes round e.g. Chamonix might as well be pistes.

3. I should have been more nuanced. More touring places a more significant burden on the security services - who's going to pay for that?

4. The Alpine economy is a significant economy, which in the grand scheme of things, I suspect (but I do not know and would appreciate any data), contributes disproportionately less than many activities to global warming - as I say, I do not know and haven't researched for myself.

5. My point on the stag hen weekend thing is that apparently 35% of foreign flights out of the UK are for stag/hen weekends, which rather staggered* me (*see what I did there!). UK skiing does not involve that volume.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
That Stag/Hen stat is amazing. however with the current situation that may be scaled back going forward and it would be good if people do have spare cash they can have a weekend booze up back home to help local businesses.
snow conditions     
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The impact of effectively stopping overseas ski holidays and indeed any type of travel abroad must be dramatic for our balance of payments deficit. A sudden ending of all that cash going abroad on lift passes, accommodation, food, drink, equipment etc. I carnt believe that the loss to tourism spending into the UK, particularly outside London, can be anywhere near as significant.
snow report     
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
under a new name wrote:
@davidof, Interesting, but it's not "unabated" is it?
.


No. Unabated means without any reduction in intensity.
latest report     
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I don't understand what mt blanc being crowded has anything to do with ski touring though? Increased numbers of ski tourers are unlikely to overwhelm any single place as many are looking to avoid crowds and most people will have different goals and objectives.

Quote:

3. I should have been more nuanced. More touring places a more significant burden on the security services - who's going to pay for that?


By security you mean emergency? Of course rescue is going to be more difficult in some remote back country touring area than in the middle of a piste. I would be interested to see the stats though. I wouldn't be surprised if injuries are more common in resorts (collisions and increased speeds of piste skiing). The resort skier is doing way more downhill vertical which would be when risk is high,co pared to the ski tourer spending the majority of the day going uphill.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@boarder2020, problem with posting quickly and not in detail. MB already has issues with climbers leaving crap around, e.g. rowing machines, light aircraft, and the rest. Massively increasing rando is sadly likely to bring some folks who don't know to take their crap home with them.

I would expect looking at the stats while your intuition re piste injuries would be correct, the problems while touring necessitating rescue might be for more minor injuries, but almost certainly require heli evac anyway.

But I guess my in the round point is that if one wanted an eco-target, I don't think lift provided alpine skiing is the target that would make most difference.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
boarder2020 wrote:
I don't understand what mt blanc being crowded has anything to do with ski touring though? Increased numbers of ski tourers are unlikely to overwhelm any single place as many are looking to avoid crowds and most people will have different goals and objectives.

You should see what Loveland pass looks like after Vail closed all resorts!

But no, there’s not enough wilderness for the population of people on earth. Right now, the back country os relatively uncrowded because lift-served resorts exist to draw people to go there. Without lifts, you’ll see the back country crawling with crowds like ants on a sugar pile. Sad
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@abc, yeah, I would think so. It's bad enough already!
ski holidays     
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Another issue I think for the ski industry will be an increased demand for single rooms. I prefer a single room if possible and do not paying a bit extra if the supplement is reasonable.

I said earlier in this thread that I ski mainly with Snoworks and Freshtracks and have often shared rooms with strangers as a matter of necessity. That has never been a problem for me in the past as I am sharing with people with like interests (strictly in the skiing sense I mean) and it has usually worked out well.

From now I would be far more reticent sharing some of those cramped rooms particularly with chalet companies. Even hotels do not often have many single rooms anyway and the business models of both hotels and chalet companies probably depend on a certain amount of shared occupancies.
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Thanks for that link @under a new name, it is frustrating that retirement lost me my previous easy access to medical journals. It is admittedly in the category of anecdote rather than research findings at the moment, but if there are people working on all those leads then there is real hope that best practice approaches will be developed which reduce the number of severe cases. Fingers crossed numbers go down in the summer to give breathing space, and then a likely surge when temperatures drop in the autumn can be well controlled.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Spain is quite hot right now and it doesn’t seem to be helping them much. I wouldn’t rely on the summer coming to the rescue.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
There was some interesting stuff from David Spiegelhalter and others on R4 this morning relating to the numbers and is well worth a listen.

It's easy to think of "had enough of experts" politicians failing to grasp these things. I hope their advisers are made from more intelligent stuff.
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Quote:

I hope their advisers are made from more intelligent stuff.


Like Cummings?
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
The problem is that experts don't always agree amongst themselves, so to whom should the politicians listen? The Govt initially acted on expert advice, then changed course after receiving new info from a team at Imperial, but now an Oxford team (and some data from Italy) seems to be contradicting Imperial... and no doubt yet more new info will appear as time goes on.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-half-the-population-already-has-coronavirus-
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leggyblonde wrote:
... Like Cummings?
Cummings seems more intelligent than the average politician, but he's obviously odious and doesn't have a scientific education.

I would say that "experts" never will "agree" because most things are complex; the world is more nuanced than reality-tv.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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mitcva wrote:
T... The Govt initially acted on expert advice, then changed course after receiving new info from a team at Imperial, but now an Oxford team (and some data from Italy) seems to be contradicting Imperial... and no doubt yet more new info will appear as time goes on. ...
I'm not sure that's a contradiction - they suggest that the initial state may be different, which wasn't considered before.

As time goes on you learn more stuff, that's kind of how science works.
If you're going to set your course on the first bit of data, however good or bad, and refuse to do anything as new data (which is very likely to be better) arrives... well that's precisely "anti-expert". Behaving that way and then blaming the process you're ignoring... well, it's an approach which leads to "National Prayer Days". Which the data show fail dramatically wink
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Interesting article. Definitely not unreasonable to think many more people have had he virus and were just asymptomatic or had mild symptoms they just thought was regular flu so didn't get tested.

The other problem is defining what constitutes cause of death. Italy seems to be posthumously testing for the virus, whereas Germany doesn't routinely test in patients that were dying from another disease/condition. It's one explanation of why the reported mortality rate is so different between the 2 countries.
latest report     
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@boarder2020,
Quote:

Germany doesn't routinely test in patients that were dying from another disease/condition


Oh! Good catch. Yes, that goes a long way to explaining that. Thanks.
ski holidays     
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
under a new name wrote:
Ionizingskin wrote:
The skiing industry should be focusing on getting its own house in order first regardless of what happens with corona.

Ski resorts have been spreading unabated like a virus chewing up the mountainside for far too long anyway. In France? No, not for some time (years).

Needs to be rules limiting the length of chairlifts and how many can be built in a given area and how many resorts can exist within a given distance of each other. There are, on all 3 counts

Chairlifts should be seen as primarily a way to get people to learn how to ski but people of a good ability should be encouraged to earn their turns, skin up and actuallyk now what it feels like to ski down real snow on a mountain rather than artificial groomed stuff.

Even if marginally realistic, that would bring a whole different set of environmental challenges c.f. Mont Blanc, Everest

The environmental cost of skiing with all the travelling and accommodation taken into account is unjustifiably huge. No one heeded the warnings about pandemics that have been there for everyone to see for decades - people are doing the same thing with climate change which will make Corona Virus look like a Sunday picnic. The skiing industry (including pressure from the actual skiers themselves) should be doing the responsible thing instead of constantly pushing for more numbers, more chairlifts, more crappy bars getting people tanked up, more profit. I think you'll find that's your imagination overlooking reality. To address one tiny point, how does the environmental cost of skiing compare with the environmental cost of foreign stag and hen weekends? (Seriously).

Love skiing, hate the industry.



Sure, lets make every excuse under the sun and just wait until its your home that gets flooded, crops are failing and there's mass migration around world then go out and buy all the toilet paper we can find. You don't moonlight as a special adviser to the Trump administration by any chance?
ski holidays     
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sorry to cross post, but...Don't get complacent and think that if we get through the current crisis and things start to settle down in the summer...

Historically pandemics run in waves so autumn/winter could get worse, although we should hopefully be more prepared by then (and hopefully the virus won't mutate Skullie )

In the Spanish flu outbreak
Quote:
There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of 1919. The pandemic peaked in the U.S. during the second wave, in the fall of 1918. This highly fatal second wave was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths attributed to the pandemic.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm

https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/pandemic-waves/
snow conditions     
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
boarder2020 wrote:
Interesting article. Definitely not unreasonable to think many more people have had he virus and were just asymptomatic or had mild symptoms they just thought was regular flu so didn't get tested.

The other problem is defining what constitutes cause of death. Italy seems to be posthumously testing for the virus, whereas Germany doesn't routinely test in patients that were dying from another disease/condition. It's one explanation of why the reported mortality rate is so different between the 2 countries.

2nd point: that's interesting and sounds like it could be correct.

1st point: that sounds wrong - if that was the case you'd expect the disease to "break out" world wide pretty much at the same time, but it came out in China, and was documented clearly as spreading from there as they traced cases across the world. The symptoms do appear to have specific differences. Although we don't have mass testing, it seems unlikely that there were a lot of cases where no one really noticed or tested. Surely if old smokers are susceptible now, they would have been back then too? It's hard to prove a negative, but this doesn't seem to fit the evidence.
snow conditions     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
How that virus spread from a chinese lab again


http://youtube.com/v/Ch7N7KCn778

the missus is reading a book from around 1980 where the author is talking about the Wuhan-400 virus created in a chinese lab in Wuhan.
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Before the current situation arose, we had been formulating a plan which ironically was pretty close to self-isolating in that a friend of a friend has a chalet in a summer mountain village where we ski tour a fair bit.

The issue with the area for touring is that it's 1hr 45min access to where the skiing really starts and max safe descents are in the region of 600m so circa 1hr 45 of climbing.

Now if we stayed in the chalet that would open up numerous options so the plan was to spend a couple of nights up there to see what it's like with muggins towing up the majority of supplies on a sledge.

Then if we liked it we'd spend ten or so days there in Feb high season getting away from the hordes and taking supplies up there in the Autumn.

Along similar lines, I've also been mulling over how a FatBike E-bike could be used to ride into some other valleys which have a 12km approach towing a couple behind me?

So in a way, this was for us, at least where we could see the Future of Skiing for us at least.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Thu 26-03-20 13:11; edited 1 time in total
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:

Although we don't have mass testing, it seems unlikely that there were a lot of cases where no one really noticed or tested. Surely if old smokers are susceptible now, they would have been back then too?


Not really. Most people are asymptomatic or have flu like symptoms, so no reason they would have been tested or we would have even suspected anything. I'm sure it did kill some old smokers and people with underlying health conditions, however it would have just been assumed their deaths were due to being old/smoking/underlying health conditions rather than some new virus. until someone "healthy" died it's believable that this virus could go unnoticed for a long time. If the Italian study is right that up to 75% of people are asymptomatic I really don't think it's hard to believe many more people have had the virus that currently thought (only the very sick or rich seem to be getting tested).
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@Ionizingskin, so, you've given up skiing then? Every journey starts with the first step, etc.
ski holidays     
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
under a new name wrote:
@Ionizingskin, so, you've given up skiing then? Every journey starts with the first step, etc.


Ah, the old if you don't like it why don't leave approach. A classic.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Ionizingskin, no, you're criticising my comments suggesting that skiing is not the low hanging fruit. I'm just wondering if you're putting your money where your mouth is. Clearly not.
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https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model/
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Is this a reputable Web site?

News or fake news?
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