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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
kitenski wrote:
@davidof, looks a decent snow cover, was that the planned opening weekend??


No, it is pretty early, even by 7 Laux standards. It is ok on piste but they have done a bit of snowmaking on the pistes. I skied a bit of off piste but there are quite a few rocks. Pistes between 1600m -> 2100m (the resort is higher but the higher lifts weren't open). There has been a lot of wind in the last 24 hours from the East/South-East. Reports of of a large avalanche on a NW facing slope near Chamrousse but no skiers caught.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quite an east west split in terms of temperatures tomorrow.



And that’s important because the intense precipitation coming tomorrow is mainly in the east where it will be a mix of very heavy snow at altitude and very heavy rain lower down. After starting around 1200-1400m the snow line looks like spiking at 2000m in places before falling again.

Over 1.5m of snow by close of play expected in parts of Osttirol along with potential for gusts of wind topping 100kmh in the mountains.



Austrian Black Hawks have already been out and about clearing snow from trees near electricity pylons. More work for emergency services coming up.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sat 16-11-19 17:00; edited 1 time in total
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Some of us stayed away from the hordes and used human power to get up the hill today Laughing


http://youtube.com/v/sUeTKrl_g1c
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Snow looks hard work on the Cuckemelle, was it wind blown or just needs a bit more snow?

Local resorts expecting thaw and foehn and have been stockpiling snow to hopefully fill in any damage - that's what I was told anyway.

Chamrousse had quite a bit open today, they don't normally bother with pre-openings - again I'm told the French have finally realized they have to open when they actually have snow and have to do something with the snow when it falls, rather than let it all blow away.
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@davidof, are you being sarcastic Laughing

Tad affected by the wind I think from a week ago but this latest dump has filled in a lot of the massive sastrugi that were there.

Plus look how at the pow coming up on the turns in the shadows Cool

And just got better the further down off the ridge.
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Weathercam wrote:
@davidof, are you being sarcastic Laughing



And just got better the further down off the ridge.


No but the slope looked full of hollows and it seemed a bit of a struggle to make turns. Maybe the effect of helmet can footage.
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Saas Fee in Switzerland cutoff due to snow (now open again).
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Föhn winds picking up by Thursday, but not especially strong.

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Obergurgl was cut off today and no ski lifts there were running.
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Landesfeuerwehrverbands Süd Tirol having a tricky day.

Dramatic footage of the aftermath of trees collapsing onto power lines under weight of snow.

https://www.facebook.com/166318470094873/posts/2674701339256561?vh=e&d=n&sfns=mo

And wet avalanche passing through village.

https://www.facebook.com/166318470094873/posts/2674399615953400?vh=e&d=n&sfns=mo
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Road from Kitzsteinhorn glacier down to Kaprun closed since midday due to mudslide. Still stuck here. Anyone have a video?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Road down from hintertux was pretty hairy this evening. Has snowed non stop all day. They reported 35cm last night but I guess 60cn+ from today’s snowfall. Very windy at top.
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12z GFS hinting that any pause may not last that long...

Obertauern



Zermatt



+276 (clearly too far out to take that seriously, but more from the fact that these sorts of possibilities are starting to pop up for the end of the month).

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You know it makes sense.
Weathercam wrote:
Some of us stayed away from the hordes and used human power to get up the hill today Laughing


http://youtube.com/v/sUeTKrl_g1c


XxxWarningxxx gloating post for those not lucky enough to live in the Alps..

What does the above have to do with the weather?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:
What does the above have to do with the weather?

There's a few on here who post a lot and like to blow their own trumpets:

However it is a weather/snow-conditions thread so can help to show current conditions on the ground, if you're planning a quickie trip (even if it's a bit of gloating overkill)
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@zzz, he posted in here just in case you missed the other thread where he posted the exact same thing...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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That wet snow avalanche vid is crazy. Am I right in thinking that's usually an end of season phenomena?

Can I rather selfishly ask what this latest spell is likely to do the base / stability later on in the season or does a lot depend on temperatures in next while?
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zzz wrote:
Weathercam wrote:
Some of us stayed away from the hordes and used human power to get up the hill today Laughing


http://youtube.com/v/sUeTKrl_g1c


XxxWarningxxx gloating post for those not lucky enough to live in the Alps..

What does the above have to do with the weather?


Lots to do with the weather, for those of us who do not live in the Alps ;posts like this represent a local viewpoint and is an excellent barometer of conditions. Ie snow depth, temp, cloud cover.
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Stadl an der Mur in Steiermark has been declared a disaster area with evacuations under way following heavy rain due to landslides, rivers bursting their banks and fallen trees closing roads.
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@zzz, Agree, I prefer when we get info from nozawaonsen etc regarding the weather outlook. Videos are better suited to the individual areas/resorts
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@8611, combination of exceptional heavy snow early in November and heavy rain increases likelihood of gleitschneelawinen/wet snow slides. Access road to Stubai closed today after avalanche hit a van (no one hurt). 250 having to spend night at base hotel.
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This thread has always been a blend of today's videos from smug gloaters and tomorrow's predictions from weather nerds.

It works well.

It is by far the most popular thread on SH (apart from the Brexit hysteria in Apres).

Always something new to read.

The forward-forecasts lookout 1 day to 3 weeks.

The videos and photos visualize the latest situation, right now.

A picture paints a thousand words.

Leave the thread as it is.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
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@Whitegold, +1.
Loved your thread's characterisation.
And I would love to be Weathercam's neighbour.
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The best thread. Also how did Noza know im going to Obertauern in Feb and Zermatt in March? Personalised forecast. Many thanks Noza, ( even if it was sheer fluke to my benefit).
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Glad to see Morris using the term "bizarre quantities" to describe the amounts that have fallen, I was wondering was I being naive. In the last 5 - 6 years odd of following the forecasts throughout the season I don't remember seeing such high amounts coming up on the snow maps, and on several days over a two week period at that. It reminds me a bit of I think it was last January when Austria got hammered over and over again. But even then I don't remember the numbers coming up that big. Morris had amounts over 3 meters for Kaprun this week.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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zzz wrote:


What does the above have to do with the weather?


It is useful to judge how the predictions have panned out where the information doesn't fit into other threads, for example Serre Che conditions.

Start of the week continuing cold in the French Northern Alps but thaw from Wednesday.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Stadl an der Mur in Steiermark has been declared a disaster area with evacuations under way following heavy rain due to landslides, rivers bursting their banks and fallen trees closing roads.


Yes, looks like a landslide took out two houses. Pics in link.
https://orf.at/stories/3144578/
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@davidof if everyone posted their videos and photos of snowfall in the weather outlook thread would it not get too cluttered? And in terms of verifying predictions, it can only be done in very general terms as the models themselves often differ hugely for detail such as FL and precipitation. Best to look at the range of forecasts...eg last night 5-20cm was predicted in PdS area, and 10-15cm seems to have fallen. This time WRF was the most accurate, last week it happened to be ECM and so on. But a video or photo of one slope is on a micro scale vs what the models are trying to predict.

Below is the 1500m temperature anomaly over the last month, under the recent and ongoing -AO phase / southerly jet, with persistent high pressure block to the east.

compday-Wm-Mrfs-Cd-I

This month long pattern is showing signs of changing. Not clear yet where the pressure is going to set up next, but the jet starts taking a more westerly track soon as the AO recovers a little from -3.
Definitely warming up in the west this week from about -3c to +5c at 1500m on the GFS ensemble mean.

Avoriaz might not look this good for a while wink

Screenshot-2019-11-18-at-12-05-17
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8611 wrote:
Glad to see Morris using the term "bizarre quantities" to describe the amounts that have fallen, I was wondering was I being naive. In the last 5 - 6 years odd of following the forecasts throughout the season I don't remember seeing such high amounts coming up on the snow maps, and on several days over a two week period at that. It reminds me a bit of I think it was last January when Austria got hammered over and over again. But even then I don't remember the numbers coming up that big. Morris had amounts over 3 meters for Kaprun this week.


Think Nordkette topped out at 7m in 7 days last January, at the mid-station (1900m).

Lots of snow and rain last night around here. Drove to Kühtai this morning after the app indicated the road was open again. It wasn't, but it was proper mid-winter cold and 30+cms of snow to the valley, more in the mountains, and blue sky. Drove back down to Axamer Lizum (basically one valley over), and rain to around 2000m and some pretty dense crusty fresh snow as a consolation prize.

But Lizum will still open this Friday with half a metre of pisted-down snow at the car park.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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clarky999 wrote:
But Lizum will still open this Friday with half a metre of pisted-down snow at the car park.

Is that some insider knowledge? – they're still saying Saturday afaik...

I was supposed to be ski touring there this morning, but after being left sans car at the last minute, I couldn't be arsed to get the bus into town rolling eyes Laughing I figured it would be wet and heavy anyway, which you've helpfully confirmed.
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@Scarlet, sorry, you're right - they open on 23rd, which is Sat.
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clarky999 wrote:


Think Nordkette topped out at 7m in 7 days last January, at the mid-station (1900m).



I remember that alright, but that number hadn't come up on the snow maps in advance (to my recollection), and I think we figured at the time it was an anomaly based on wind blown accumulations or something?
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8611 wrote:
clarky999 wrote:


Think Nordkette topped out at 7m in 7 days last January, at the mid-station (1900m).



I remember that alright, but that number hadn't come up on the snow maps in advance (to my recollection), and I think we figured at the time it was an anomaly based on wind blown accumulations or something?


No probably didn't come up on the maps, but it wasn't really an anomaly - 6m+ depth (after settling) was reported across the whole zone, not just at one measuring site. It was more than other nearby areas due to geography of that resort though.
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Regardless of vids/pics etc, this is an excellent November and snow cover is really good above 2,000m and looking ahead, at least for this part of the world, there is no real significant thaw especially above 2,000m.

I fully expect to see the recent snow in the valley disappear especially on slopes exposed to the sun, but at the moment temps for the majority of the day are well below freezing and the snow cannon are doing their thing!

Coverage above 2,200 is quite staggering.

PS twas another damn fine powder ski tour today Cool
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One of Europe's best starts to a season this century.

Dozens of resorts in the Alps, Pyrenees and elsewhere already open.
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ZAMG on how unusual the recent rain/snowfall has been.

- In the 72 hours between Friday 0700 and Monday 0700 in Oberkärnten, Osttirol and the southern region of Salzburgerland there was 200-300mm of accumulated precipitation.

- In Kötschach-Mauthen and Spittal an der Drau this was a once in 10 to 15 year event, in Raum Lienz a once in 40 to 50 year event and further north rarer than a once in 50 year event in places such Mallnitz, Obervellach, Kals and Bad Gastein.
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polo wrote:
@davidof if everyone posted their videos and photos of snowfall in the weather outlook thread would it not get too cluttered?


Well it is largely weathercam so it is not that bad, just four or five a week... you'll get used to it and sometimes the randodogs are out as a bonus, or he lets his airbag off inside his van or skis off a cliff, never a dull moment.

I rarely post stuff but as it is out of season and the conditions are pretty encouraging I made an exception.
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Now a compilation video of best of rando dogs along with air bag going off in van and then flying off a cliff WeatherMcConkey style, Union Jack fluttering in the wind would be quite a thing...
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I like the rando dogs; (I used to have a couple myself) but I can see them on the Serre Chev thread, as well as the snow conditions should I choose to look. As Polo says, if we all start posting headcam footage (someone please shoot me if I ever wear one skiing) then the thread will be clogged up with total dangly bits. And to those who want to see the actual snow conditions, how many regular skiers actually know where the Col du Cucumelle is, or the Cols D’Encranaz, Cou, Fornet etc etc.

Maybe, if we want to post about interesting cols we could have a dedicated touring route section. We could post Headcam footage to our hearts delight and perhaps a bit of Strava action too. Seriously, might be useful?
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