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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
hilary t wrote:
Quote:

DB Kaprun Looking better with 50cm Fresh. Will be at Kaprun in 9 days for the ski-touring testival - any other snowheads around?
https://www.bergfex.at/kitzsteinhorn-kaprun/webcams/c520/



Will be leaving the day you arrive! Looking forward to great snow next week.



When do you arrive?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I think I've worked out what's going on with the snow heights at Obergurgl.

The 90cm in the morning (now reduced to 80cm) on Bergfex was measured by a man.
The 56cm now showing on the Obergurgl website was probably measured by a female member of staff.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Laughing @DB,
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and there will be a mild spell IMHO, just a question of when, how long and how warm!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Oh well, the way the forecast is panning out for us down Sarf now is a case of "The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away" Sad

Think earlier in the week we were looking at 40cm+ now we'll be lucky to see 15cm

Mind you today was quite nice Cool





We nearly made it to the Italian border
https://www.strava.com/activities/2862249401
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Weathercam wrote:
Oh well, the way the forecast is panning out for us down Sarf now is a case of "The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away" Sad

Think earlier in the week we were looking at 40cm+ now we'll be lucky to see 15cm



Nice pics ! Arpege is predicting a lot of snow in your region, hopefully it is true !

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=25&x=9172.2&y=7184.71&ech=114&zoom=3.4
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Welsh snow...

https://twitter.com/uksnow_updates/status/1194714436965146626?s=21
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Absurd figures in the forecast and it just keeps coming. Did I read somewhere that some places have gotten half a season's snow in the space of a week or two?

2 dead in avalanche in Solden today, very sad
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At present warmer than average and more settled weather looks like moving in from next Tuesday. Should be good to enjoy the snow in!

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Here is my forecast for the European Alps, as well as the rest of Europe including the UK for the winter ahead:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/14/european-winter-outlook-2019-20/

Looking rather snowy Smile
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Looks good again for Saturday and Sunday if we can get in the trees but a bit bare thereafter...

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
Here is my forecast for the European Alps, as well as the rest of Europe including the UK for the winter ahead:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/14/european-winter-outlook-2019-20/

Looking rather snowy Smile


Thanks for that light reading! Didn’t really understand the majority of it but could make sense of some of the pics. When you say ‘average’, does that mean average for the specific region, say Tirol, Salzburg, etc. Or does it mean a wider Alps average?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Jellybeans1000, thanks. So if I'm reading it correctly, your long range prediction is almost the opposite of what all of the models are predicting?

Not criticising that, but it's brave!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Dougie wrote:
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
Here is my forecast for the European Alps, as well as the rest of Europe including the UK for the winter ahead:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/14/european-winter-outlook-2019-20/

Looking rather snowy Smile


Thanks for that light reading! Didn’t really understand the majority of it but could make sense of some of the pics. When you say ‘average’, does that mean average for the specific region, say Tirol, Salzburg, etc. Or does it mean a wider Alps average?

Yeah the average for the general region.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@denfinella, indeed. But that's the way the evidence I have looked at, portrays it, so that's the way I went Smile

Seasonal models are softening their current stance a little bit as well.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
50-100cms of fairly dense base-building snow to the valley in Stubaital, and potentially another metre+ to come over the weekend.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snowing now here, if you're bored in the office you can watch it on the cam in our garden (link below) , can pans around etc and more importantly you can see it building up on the patio and bird table
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Lots of positivity on this thread thanks to the recent and widespread snowfall, and rightly so.

Seems like the much of the Alps has a promising base above maybe 2000 metres (or lower in places), and particularly the closer you are to the main Alpine ridge. The Dolomites in particular seem to be set up very well indeed for early season, with both plentiful natural snow and of course snow cannons in case they're needed. A bit of a change from some recent years! Overall, looking good for the Alps as a whole given it's still November.

One of the few areas which don't look so rosy to me is the lower resorts in the northwestern Alps - e.g. the lower parts of the Portes du Soleil. Despite cold temperatures it's been relatively dry, and forecast to continue that way. The long term outlook also seems to be firming up for a spell of milder weather, so any improvement here looks unlikely in the next couple of weeks. Of course in comparison to other years there's nothing to worry about (again, it's only November!), but it looks like this is the main "gap" to fill to give all regions a healthy start to the main season.
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@denfinella,

"relatively dry, and forecast to continue that way"

Not terribly per Chamonix meteo

http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/forecast/morning/5_days_weather_forecast.php
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Lots of images of predicted rainfall and snowfall caused by the upcoming storms in northern Spain, southern France and northern Italy here https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/excessive-rainfall-france-alps-snow-mk/ . Assuming the predictions are accurate it does suggest that PDS and a number of other nearby areas will get little snow despite the heavy snowfall not far away including the Massif Central. Something similar seems likely further east where areas on and south of the the main alpine ridge are due to get large amounts of snow eg Obergurgl or places in the Dolomites but places further north normally well known for large snow depths eg Warth are likely to see much less snow.
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@under a new name, OK fair point. I was really thinking about the area a bit further northwest than Chamonix - e.g. Portes du Soleil, Grand Massif, Evasion Mont Blanc, the other Chablais resorts... The snow in the next few days is coming from the Italian side / the south, so anywhere further northwest will likely get much less.

Also instead of "lower resorts" I should have said "lower ski areas". Chamonix valley skiing is quite high compared with the other nearby resorts, so it might have a half decent base already, and its higher altitude will help it ride out the mild spell if it does arrive.

Whether "mild" turns out to be "mild and dry" or "mild and wet" still seems uncertain, but neither scenario is a positive one at lower altitudes.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Here's a spectacular compilation of images from the majority of Pyrenean and Iberian ski areas today, illustrating the state of the Pyrenees as the season kicks off here
(courtesy of the admin of a Spanish "cousin" of sH): https://www.nevasport.com/phorum/read.php?48,4051400,4073491#msg-4073491
snowHead snowHead
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
A report from Passo Tonale of folks taking advantage of early season bumper snow and open lifts on the Presena glacier in recent days

https://www.alpinforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=62417
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Looks like a lot, lot more to come over the next 180hrs for N Italy & S Austria if the 18z snow accumulation forecasts are right:

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif
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See link below Cool


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Fri 15-11-19 8:59; edited 1 time in total
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@denfinella, ah, I should have paid more attention as to where it was coming from.

While I find the Cham meteo forecast is generally best for this whole area, that’s generally because the weather’s coming from the NW ...

A good dump in N Italy would be nice as we are planning to wander over early Dec. While the tagliata at Le Sapin is sufficient attraction, a bit of skiing would also be pleasant.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looks like a pretty decent dump overnight with 25-50cm over a wide area

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Oh boy Pyrenees is kicking off snowHead
https://www.instagram.com/p/B420I4VoOCX/?igshid=g77mgorqd6ty
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Insane snow accumulation numbers again for the Southern side of the Alps overnight on 00z & 06z...

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif

Numbers suggest 3 metres plus for the High Alpine in the Monte Rosa and Dolomites/Carnic Alps, obviously those are maxima and there'll be a lot of compaction.

357kg/m2 is the highest number there...even if only half of that falls on populated areas, that's serious weight on a roof!! Shocked

Expect some torrential rain and runoff lower down too!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@luigi, 06z is yesterday’s. Today’s 06z doesn’t start unrolling for another 20 minutes.

But yes part’s if NE Italy and southern Austria, ie Osttirol and Südtirol look like they could face some quite substantial weather disruption and damage through a combination of heavy snowfall and heavy rainfall.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
More on today's storms over N Italy, Venice at further threat of flooding:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/severe-storms-intense-rainfall-north-adriatic-mk/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, thanks for the clarification & confirmation! snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Kaprun has been shut for 2 days as it's experiencing high winds. Hope the higher alititude winds die down in the near future.
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BobinCH wrote:
Oh boy Pyrenees is kicking off snowHead
https://www.instagram.com/p/B420I4VoOCX/?igshid=g77mgorqd6ty



Pyrenees is stomping pillows in November...
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Is WePowder working for everyone else? https://wepowder.com/en/forecast
I'm still seeing the forecast from two days ago Confused
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Boot deep in the West today. Bluebird bonus

http://youtube.com/v/s08Uj6tx2Ao
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Scarlet, app on IOS is t updating. It shows the weather map but nothing else. Website is like yours, no update at all.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Scarlet, Morris posted a reply on his latest forecast yesterday evening so he is not stuck in a snow drift somewhere.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Off piste was windblown in the 7 laux today and rocks not too far under the snow, so we largely did a tour of the pistes as a pre-season warm up.
Verbier obviously wins on the altitude front.


http://youtube.com/v/Hwb9Ecrt3xU
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
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@davidof, looks a decent snow cover, was that the planned opening weekend??
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