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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The droneship names are yet another reason why I love Elon Musk.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
12z GFS even gets fruity in FI.



WARNING, WARNING: this chart is unlikely to come out this way.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Another IMB fanboy here. Can't believe he's gone. Didn't "Grey Area" have another name that might want to wait for an apocalyptic super storm?

Meanwhile - how the drought going in the Dolomites? Lots on here for you "High in France" and Arlberg hard core. What about a bit of sauce for those that just want la dolce vita?
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under a new name wrote:
@risb98, Do you know what "very little gravitas" refers to? It's quite funny. ."


Yes , the Culture created opportunities for a variety of ironic threads. Have to say still terribly miss waiting for his next book
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@risb98, oh, me too. The only books I typically bought in hardback, on release.
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Have to say I have enjoyed, and been an avid reader of @nozawaonsen, over the last number of years. Difficult to want to see anything on here except polite comment. As someone who does not 'do' social media, and thinks mobile phones are a necessary evil, (I have had one for work purposes since I needed two hands to carry one, you know WW11 walkie talkie size), it is apparent that people write what they would not say. If they did, in normal civilized society a punch on the nose may result. It certainly would in Sheffield or Liverpool. Write as if you are discussing it on a chairlift, all, please. This message could apply to all threads I suppose.
I'm off to Zermatt on March 7th with my good wife, and will be monitoring this thread with my usual avid interest. I will also look to make a few very basic observations occasionally. snowHead


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Wed 12-02-20 20:34; edited 1 time in total
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
and to follow up 12Z GFS now shows a chance of precipitation in Zermatt 24th to 26th. Massive way out I know, but it was flatlining this am
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@twoodwar, yeah that’s the FI chart I posted. To be honest it really is a long way out and also as you say no sign of anything in last few runs either. That said there’s a bit of ensemble noise around then, not a lot, but... So the Long Shot City bet was born. Let’s see if it crops up again.
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@sergeantslow, it looks as if some of the bands of snow might make it through to the Dolomites over the next week. Probably not much more than a dusting though. The weather pattern seems pretty set on a westerly / north westerly flow. The Dolomites really need weather coming from the south for reasonable amounts of snow and of that there is little sign.
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@munich_irish, hope To see more than some dusting as I am off for a trip to the Dolomites late next week. Do I think it will happen, nope. But blue sky and spring conditions is always something to enjoy.. Madeye-Smiley
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Do people expect the yo-yo-ing temps to continue next week?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Some French stations already starting to closedown.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-ski-resort-closed-snow-mourtis-pyrenees-weather-winter-a9331926.html%3famp
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@munich_irish, thanks
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Some good news from Western Norway this week ; many places has received more than one meter of snow so far. Much needed Very Happy
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
8611 wrote:
Do people expect the yo-yo-ing temps to continue next week?


warm until the 18thish from a quick look at the GFS for the Arlberg & Trois Vallees
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Strat wind speeds at 10hpa are heading for all time highs for the time of year in the next 8-10 days. Speeds approaching 70 m/s or 250 kph have never been recorded this late in the vortex cycle.
The sorry looking pressure charts closer to home at 500hpa reveal a solid belt of high pressure all around the NH mid lattitudes. With the trop vortex parked over Greenland as usual.

So much for solar minimum -ve AO winter forecasts.

test8

Read some posts about what tends happen in spring when the final strat warming takes place after such a strong vortex season.
Amy Butler says an early final warming is likely this year, meaning the strat vortex strength should fall rapidly in March and the cold air will escape.
But looking at analogues for strong vortex years, it's about 50/50 whether europe sees any major change....many years end up mild and zonal as well.

So nothing good to report, apart from that it's time to wax the board again and get up the hill tomorrow. Starting to snow at 1800m now, down to 1200m this evening in NW
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow started at around midday from 1200 meters altitude (French Chartreuse, Col de Porte) today. That's quite a bit lower than forecast. About 10cm is expected in the Northern French Alps, locally 15cm through to Friday morning with the snowline dropping further. On Friday afternoon it should be a return to warm, sunny weather. Weekend will be spring like with a mild foehn on Sunday.

There were a lot of ice patches on the ski runs and off piste snow not really skiable below 1700 meters (obviously lower the further north you go).
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Forecast getting better for half term week in Western Alps above 2000m. Great conditions for the weekend. Another top up on Monday with cooler temps and sunshine to follow
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snowing down at 700m in tarentaise...so a fair bit lower than initially forecast
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Also heavy snow in Chamonix, again the rain/snow limit is several hundred metres lower than forecast by Cham meteo.
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Friday morning looks like the best time for off-piste powder, especially in the NW Alps. It looks like there could be 30cm in a few spots. But the avalanche danger is still or will become considerable in some areas. Maybe 20cm in the northern Arlberg, and less to the east in Austria.

Next week still looks really uncertainty. Colder starting sometime on Monday, but how much precipitation accompanies the cooler temperatures remains in question.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Raining below 1300ish in Ad'H this afternoon.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
With the expectation of a northwesterly flow and intermittent showery precipitation, I would imagine a mostly cloudy (with possible breaks of sun) forecast would be in the cards for the northern Alps for at least the first half of next week. Sunshine becomes increasingly likely later in the week, especially in the west.
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@davidof, that's what we're seeing in Chamonix (maybe a little later in starting), heavy (as in lots of it) and settling well now, 2-3cms at a guess?
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@all - that is good news, we really need 50cm not 10cm. Yes it was settling on the roads too, so take care.
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Snowing heavily in Grimentz village, no one left up top.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
It has been hoofing it down in Tignes Val Claret since lunchtime. Tomorrow should be lit, as my children would say.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Bulgaria (Bansko) is like an icerink.

Zero natural snow below 2000m.

Desperately needs a fresh puke.

Saw some old dood pop a bone out of his knee / thigh today.

The worst ski injury I've seen in a long time.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Don’t suppose @whitegold (and some other trolls/doom merchants) will comment on the men’s world downhill in Hinterglemm today.

Shocking news, snow at a ski resort and even at village level
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Snowing here this evening in Aosta Valley at 550m...I'm sure glad 'global boiling' has been put on hold for my ski weekend!! snowHead snowHead snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Been snowing quite hard in Gressoney for a few hours now. Suspect we might actually end up with a little more snow than forecast, which would be a welcome change.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Still snowing pretty hard here too deep into the valley at 550m a few miles from Aosta, though I wasn't expecting to have to dig the car out in the morning staying down here!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
luigi wrote:
Snowing here this evening in Aosta Valley at 550m...I'm sure glad 'global boiling' has been put on hold for my ski weekend!! snowHead snowHead snowHead

Great news for areas SE of the spine. Radar shows some solid returns in the area. Maybe 15-20cm up high? It must be kind of warm down there though.
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@altaski8, it was hovering around 0C while it was snowing, this morning feels milder and sky is clearing, but observing accumulations locally of 5-10cm. I expect it will all disappear down here today, but good to see everything with a white mantle. Resorts in the area should have benefited, 15-20cm sounds great! snowHead
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Ooo that’s great news! We are heading to champoluc and the site I’ve just looked at said no new snow overnight. Clearly talking rubbish!
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@twoodwar’s long shot city bet still offering a bit of interest...

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quite a few amber warnings for rain cropping up now in parts of the UK over the weekend.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-16

Not quite Dennis, but something to hum along too as you watch the rain fall.


http://youtube.com/v/ahGxiSV_LH0
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Sensational conditions in Verbier today. Cold temps, 30cm of perfect powder
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Very humid snow in the Isere mountains this AM, more like end of March conditions.

The snowline didn't drop below about 1200 meters. Really only a few cms at 1500m, 10cm at 2200 in the Belledonne.

Things are better in the Haute-Tarentaise (la Plagne etc) and Beaufortain (les Saisies) which saw 20-25cm of fresh snow at altitude but that snow didn't make it over the mountain ridge into the Maurienne let alone further south.

Very hot weekend in store before a return to colder unsettled whether on Monday night in the French NA but without huge quantities of snow.
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Hopefully we can get several days in a row next week with low freezing levels. Already today is looks like most areas below 1500m hit or exceeded freezing. Tue - Fri looks relatively cool after a very warm weekend. The weather overall next week looks like more of the same, with weak systems from the NW. Warm Atlantic air looks poised for return the following weekend, but that is a long ways off. I think it's best not to look at charts beyond 10 days (240hrs) because they have a lower verification score than seasonal averages.
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