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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
Latest snow snapshot.



Ensembles showing a potential cold shift around 04/05 February. Has shown up in last three GEFS runs, but ECM not buying it yet.



@staffsan, agree that as this arrives in the western Alps it looks likely to be accompanied with strong winds.


Patience is a virtue
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Whitegold wrote:
Bodeswell wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
lower than normal...Netherlands is -100%.

lol, So you're saying that w/c 20 January Netherlands is usually wall to wall snowed in? I call horse sh** on that one. Fairly typical Dutch scene for late January during the past 20 years.

Apart from that cool story, more snow would be nice. It'll come.



Nice try, but no cigar wink

Netherlands should be 10-30% snowy in Jan.

It is currently 0%.

The photo is today from (nearby) Belgium's biggest and highest ski resort, Val de Wanne.

It is completely green, even on the tallest peaks.





stop confusing us with facts !
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Yep if you really really want to win the argument playing the Belgian ski resort card is the tool to use...


http://youtube.com/v/yxQNYPYFq1c
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Days 3-5 definitely look like a base-building and snowy period for Switzerland (except southern) and up through the Arlberg... probably the N French Alps too. The rest of Austria should get some significant snow too, but probably not big totals considering the orientation of the fronts sweeping though. The northern Alps (outside Arlberg) and the German pre-Alps continue to wait for the goods... (maybe in 8-10 days?). The south central/eastern Alps could use a good refresher too.

Let's see if we can get through the early Feb. warm (and wet?) period without too much damage.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Areal snow coverage throughout western Europe is far below average for this date. I'm not sure if anybody is arguing otherwise, but if so, that's pretty silly. There is virtually no snowcover outside high terrain. This is not historic, but definitely stark.

It is relatively common to have snow on the ground this time of year in parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, and the German lowlands. But it is also not uncommon for that area to be bare. What is a bit unusual is to have basically no snow up through Poland, the Baltic states, and into Scandinavia.
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Thanks @altaski8, but as you are new to this forum I’ll offer up a little context.

@Whitegold, has shown pretty much zero evidence of trying to be helpful or contribute meaningfully to this forum. Over the last decade he or she has repeatedly posted a series of often very unpleasant posts and many misleading and alarming comments on this thread and many others.

Occasionally he or she will in a cleverly crafted manner insert some factual information, but again there is little evidence that this is for any other purpose than to irritate and upset people. It appears not to be done to seriously inform or assist, but with a more malign agenda.

As the season starts so does his or her postings. After a while it becomes increasingly wearisome. Hence the response to the posts.

But yes as you helpfully point out it would indeed be silly to suggest that snow cover is not some way below average for the season. That should not however justify the occasional posts by a few people that seem to have little purpose other than to clutter up the thread and dispirit people looking forward to enjoying some time off in the mountains.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I can tell a bit about the situation in NL.

We normally have mild weather but some cold spells each winter.
So most winters we have snowcover for between 2 (mild winters) and maybe 20 days (colder winters).
But winters have gotten milder and milder over the last 2 decades.

We need a continental flow for freezing. NE is best, E and SE also good.
N is already dubious (too mild because coming over the Northsea).
Anything with W in it is bad for winter.

In 2019-2020, hardly any night frost, let alone a full 24hrs under zero.

Already at the start of january, meteorologists did not see any tendency towards freezing till end januari.
Now at the end of january, still no tendency towards continental flow.

When this weather pattern does not change within the next 1-2 weeks, it is safe to say winter 2019-2020 is over.
Over before it even started.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sat 25-01-20 11:39; edited 1 time in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Light a bit flat in Kitzbühel, but race just started.

Lucky escape for Ryan Cochran Siegle.
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Thanks for the explanation @noza. Repeated posting just to vent frustration and troll is unfortunate and annoying!
Let's also not pretend things are great just to avoid dispiriting people. That is not the purpose of this thread. I do not consider myself a negative person, especially when it comes to the weather. But I also find myself reflexively prone to countering what I perceive as an excessively rosy perspective on this forum. Somehow, the conditions are always great with pics to prove it. Maybe people are just less apt to post when conditions are not so great. I guess I just like some balance and objectivity.
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altaski8 wrote:
Thanks for the explanation @noza. Repeated posting just to vent frustration and troll is unfortunate and annoying!
Let's also not pretend things are great just to avoid dispiriting people. That is not the purpose of this thread. I do not consider myself a negative person, especially when it comes to the weather. But I also find myself reflexively prone to countering what I perceive as an excessively rosy perspective on this forum. Somehow, the conditions are always great with pics to prove it. Maybe people are just less apt to post when conditions are not so great. I guess I just like some balance and objectivity.


I am off to Tignes tomorrow, and this is (far from) the worst snow conditions I will have seen there.

Ignoring the off piste (appreciate that many love it, but 99% of tourists never venture past the poles), 15 or so years ago we had a very cold week there zero snow and bulletproof pistes, lots of fallers and accidents galore.

This year, the pistes are (odd places aside) apparently holding up fantastically well. It looks like there will be a very decent top up midweek which will really help both on and off piste.

Certainly there might be a few resorts suffering - but lower resorts have always been prone to this (same with Scotland, tbf).

While the general climate trend may be to warming, there have been a couple of seasons very recently where the snow in the alps just didnt stop abd snow levels were epic.

Cest la vie, you take what you are given.
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That was an amazing run at Kitz! (But no spoilers)

Here’s the latest GFS. ECZm has a similar pattern.

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
altaski8 wrote:
Thanks for the explanation @noza. Repeated posting just to vent frustration and troll is unfortunate and annoying!
Let's also not pretend things are great just to avoid dispiriting people.


But important to remember that conditions vary at different heights and locations. This is where first hand experience is so useful on this forum.

Having just come back from La Plagne, I can state conditions are very good for piste skiing, in fact very similar to last year. Bit scratchy below 1400m but IIRC it was also like that last year. And with snow on the horizon, things will only get better.

While I agree it's important not to pretend, let's not get too doom and gloom, as newbies reading this with holidays coming might think that they are going to be confronted by green meadows when they arrive in resort. It's far from like that in many places.


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Sat 25-01-20 11:57; edited 1 time in total
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Handy Turnip, to be fair it is in Belgium apparently.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, Laughing Laughing very true!! Might avoid Belgium for my Easter trip then wink
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
GreenDay wrote:
altaski8 wrote:
Thanks for the explanation @noza. Repeated posting just to vent frustration and troll is unfortunate and annoying!
Let's also not pretend things are great just to avoid dispiriting people. That is not the purpose of this thread. I do not consider myself a negative person, especially when it comes to the weather. But I also find myself reflexively prone to countering what I perceive as an excessively rosy perspective on this forum. Somehow, the conditions are always great with pics to prove it. Maybe people are just less apt to post when conditions are not so great. I guess I just like some balance and objectivity.


Ignoring the off piste (appreciate that many love it, but 99% of tourists never venture past the poles)



I don't believe that. That would be really sad if true. I might believe maybe 90% of British tourists. But people from countries with mountains are more adventurous.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Leaving the Benelux ski areas aside for a moment it does look like a few more cms on Tuesday and Wednesday in the French alps. The situation looks a little bit more unstable now. Yesterday we saw up to 5cm!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
altaski8 wrote:
GreenDay wrote:


Ignoring the off piste (appreciate that many love it, but 99% of tourists never venture past the poles)



I don't believe that. That would be really sad if true. I might believe maybe 90% of British tourists. But people from countries with mountains are more adventurous.


Without quibbling over the percentage, it is still high. And those that enjoy off-piste will in most cases enjoy on-piste too.

Having spent a week with boarders who love the powder and off-piste, and pre-holiday were desperately craving a big dump - after we finished the week they all agreed at the conditions were fantastic.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I've said it before and I'll say it again, spiritual though powder can be, piste skiing is massively underrated, especially in a world of powder porn

Nice runs, nice sunny day and a nice terrace lunch always welcome in "good" weather
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8611 wrote:
I've said it before and I'll say it again, spiritual though powder can be, piste skiing is massively underrated, especially in a world of powder porn

Nice runs, nice sunny day and a nice terrace lunch always welcome in "good" weather


+1
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Zonal wind crash into early Feb should disrupt the euro high.....maybe see a split vortex or minor SSW

u-65-N-10hpa

Although the recent +NAO has been delivering regular snow to northern and western end down to low levels since November, next weekend is looking a little wet


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sat 25-01-20 17:30; edited 1 time in total
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Both Bergfex (ECM) and SCGB (GFS) are now showing substantial snow for Tue/Wed next week in the Monterosa area, where I'm heading in a couple of weeks time. That would be great if it happens.

I love to go off-piste when possible, which is partly why I'm craving a load of new snow, but I also really enjoy piste skiing in good conditions. Part of what I enjoy about off-piste, though, is getting away from people, which is clearly more difficult if everyone is restricted to pistes.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
8611 wrote:
I've said it before and I'll say it again, spiritual though powder can be, piste skiing is massively underrated, especially in a world of powder porn

Nice runs, nice sunny day and a nice terrace lunch always welcome in "good" weather


You will love the skiing in West Virginia. Snowshoe is my recommendation.
Also, moguls are extremely underrated. Groomed corduroy lasts a few runs but moguls are eternal.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sat 25-01-20 18:45; edited 1 time in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@altaski8, moguls. You are so, very, definitely, correct.
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8611 wrote:
I've said it before and I'll say it again, spiritual though powder can be, piste skiing is massively underrated, especially in a world of powder porn

Nice runs, nice sunny day and a nice terrace lunch always welcome in "good" weather


Yes, but that just makes what has happened this season in Belgium all the sadder Sad
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Laughing Laughing
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All mid-range guidance continues to look snowy from Vanoise to the Arlberg above about 1000m. Further east and south I'm a bit less confident. There is also some concern about winds, especially with the main front on Tuesday. And by the time the weather clears and visibilities improve, warmer temperatures might start to become a concern at mid and low elevations.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Well it's been a stressful few weeks...OH has been demanding a decision. I've been batting her off with the gospel according to Snowheads: Book flights and wait to see where best to go and now I'm fried!
We arrive Geneva 2100hrs Thursday 30th Jan, depart 2000hrs Monday 3rd Feb. The forecasts are all over the place!
Family of 6 adults "intermediate" skiers.
Do we need to keep high coz it might rain/snow, but then if it snows we need tree lined, windy? Piste skiing is fine for all of us. All advice welcome. If it's worth driving a distance that's ok.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@pembsflyer,

Book LaThuille in Aosta, you’ll have a blast and get cheap good food .
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@pembsflyer, looks pretty good to me! 50cm of cold smoke followed by sunshine...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
altaski8 wrote:
GreenDay wrote:
altaski8 wrote:
Thanks for the explanation @noza. Repeated posting just to vent frustration and troll is unfortunate and annoying!
Let's also not pretend things are great just to avoid dispiriting people. That is not the purpose of this thread. I do not consider myself a negative person, especially when it comes to the weather. But I also find myself reflexively prone to countering what I perceive as an excessively rosy perspective on this forum. Somehow, the conditions are always great with pics to prove it. Maybe people are just less apt to post when conditions are not so great. I guess I just like some balance and objectivity.


Ignoring the off piste (appreciate that many love it, but 99% of tourists never venture past the poles)



I don't believe that. That would be really sad if true.


I would be delighted if that were true wink

Balance and objectivity are (obviously) important, but I think the general theme has been more 'better than you'd think' than 'conditions are great'. Given the snowfall so far by rights the skiing should be awful, but (at least around here) it's generally been reasonable to fun, and occasionally great in select places at select times.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
[quote="altaski8"]
Ptspeak wrote:
altaski8 wrote:

I don’t really need a liftiie to tell me how to load a lift or line up. It’s just my opinion.

Yeah you do. Really. Lift seats are constantly unused and wasted, adding to larger and longer lift lines. A quad lift should have 4 people on it, not 2... unless there is no line. But I constantly see couples insisting on private rides. And what's worse, you have to really fight for your position in line. Even adults are extremely aggressive in line - there is no courtesy or decently at all. And people are constantly pushing you from behind even when there is nowhere to go. Honestly it's embarrassing.

With All due respect agree to disagree. I can only speak from my own experiences. And you are speaking from yours. I will acknowledge lefties are usually cool.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
[quote="altaski8"]
Ptspeak wrote:
altaski8 wrote:

I don’t really need a liftiie to tell me how to load a lift or line up. It’s just my opinion.

Yeah you do. Really. Lift seats are constantly unused and wasted, adding to larger and longer lift lines. A quad lift should have 4 people on it, not 2... unless there is no line. But I constantly see couples insisting on private rides. And what's worse, you have to really fight for your position in line. Even adults are extremely aggressive in line - there is no courtesy or decently at all. And people are constantly pushing you from behind even when there is nowhere to go. Honestly it's embarrassing.

With All due respect agree to disagree. I can only speak from my own experiences. And you are speaking from yours. I will acknowledge lifties are usually cool.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 26-01-20 1:41; edited 1 time in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Steve77, Very Happy Very Happy

@altaski8, don't worry, if I ever get stateside on skis neither the east coast nor moguls will feature, I will revert to spiritual, Utah, Wyoming, Cascades, etc


pembsflyer wrote:


We arrive Geneva 2100hrs Thursday 30th Jan, depart 2000hrs Monday 3rd Feb. The forecasts are all over the place!



I literally don't think you could be luckier - I would just wait about three days to see which side of the Mont Blanc tunnel Morris recommends, either Chamonix or likely Courmayeur will probably be amazing. There can be a big difference in conditions in the individual Aosta resorts even though they're only a short distance as the crow flies, I suspect because of the height of the mountains separating them, so I would hang on and see.

Although in fairness, that's powder advice and given you're happy with pistes criteria like visibility as you say is more important. Probably Courmayeur.
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Looks like the Belgian mountains are due for some snow Toofy Grin

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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
More seriously this chart nicely shows the short cold spell due in the middle of next week. Cooler north westerly airflow covering most of the French and Swiss mountains plus the Arlberg and a bit of the western Tirol

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This could become of interest in the next few weeks.


http://youtube.com/v/VnlFFaF_l7I







Whether and how it would impact weather in Europe is still unclear. But this type of disruption can produce much colder weather a few weeks down the line.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@munich_irish, the cold actually pushes much further east than that.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
The 850mb T anomaly (not absolute) chart is from Tuesday when the core of the "cool" air is still over apprx. France. And the flow looks more W or WNW rather than NW - good for central Switzerland, the Black Forest, and the Arlberg but maybe not so great for the rest of Austria and the German pre-Alps.
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Out into the following week GFS has been pushing this type of scenario quite hard for the period of 04-06 February.



If it happened it would bring further cold weather and snow to the Alps. That said whilst ECM isn’t showing much interest it’s hard to take it that seriously for now.
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Light snow in Menuires/Reberty. Pistes are as good as you could want them and the sides are decent in places for a little bit of wiggle. Top first morning.
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