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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Weathercam, if that verifies I will eat my helmet... Razz

Nevertheless, medium term outlook looking slightly more hopeful for new snow for the W and NW Alps than it has been for a couple of weeks...


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Thu 9-01-20 17:58; edited 2 times in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The o6Z for Zermatt has a ridiculous amount of snow for the 21st of Jan - https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=10676&model=gfs&var=201&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1

Unless I have done somehtng wrong
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12z GFS also going down the cold and snowy route for the Alps from 17 January.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS also going down the cold and snowy route for the Alps from 17 January.


Hopefully still there on Mondays runs!!
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Does anyone know a good resource anywhere for reading these charts? All those lines n poo-poo be confusing but kinda interesting.

Spitting feathers over here in Switzerland. The windscreen wipers broke on my car and it didn't even matter, nothing falling from the sky. Northern pre-alps are green, might have to get the bike out again.
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Still a very strong southerly wind at altitude today - it seems to have blown more or less consistently for a month now - probably that High pressure somewhere out in the Atlantic. It isn't really doing too much damage to the snow, which remains pretty hard on open ski runs and a bit manky outside unless it has been heavily trafficked. Hoping a few cms tomorrow will fill in some of the damage on the off piste for Saturday.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Heading to Monte Rosa area in early Feb, so I'm hoping for a substantial top-up before I go. The 'Retour d'Est' spoken of should provide that, should it not? (Within the parameters that all these things are glorified guesswork for more than half an hour in the future anyway...).
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@J2R, not automatically. This is the feature that shows up in the latest GFS run.



In this instance it drives east pretty sharply and covers Slovenia and Croatia in snow.

But in any case it’s still too far out to have much confidence that it will happen and then how it will develop.
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Most of the recent cold and snowy runs have been cold outliers from the operational. 12z GFS just about to start rolling. Let’s see if it can build some support...
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@J2R, 18z would be very snowy for NW Italy.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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So it did snow overnight in the French pre-Alps, about 3cm above 1300 meters. Still that will iron out a few bumps, it was like skiing on the surface of a golf ball in some places.
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00z has some snow 17th in Western Italy then quite a bit of snow 19th-21st. It's weird though cos the GFS I'm looking at for Bardonecchia has a spike off the charts on the 20th but other charts in this thread dont seem to show something quite that extreme https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=76114&model=gfs&var=201&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@bobmcstuff, that looks like a bug of some sort.
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denfinella wrote:
@Weathercam, if that verifies I will eat my helmet... Razz

Nevertheless, medium term outlook looking slightly more hopeful for new snow for the W and NW Alps than it has been for a couple of weeks...


Think your helmet will be safe, it's nigh on all disappeared Mad
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
This is GFS op out to +240. Do note that these diagrams are just a very raw representation and particularly out to that range are very subject to change.



However, it does seem increasingly likely that we will break out of the current persistent high pressure that has been around for a little while now around 17/18 January.

Will that mean the particular area of the Alps you are skiing will get lots of snow? Not necessarily. But then you’ll just take that on the chin and be glad someone else is getting the good stuff. Because your strong like that.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@bobmcstuff, that looks like a bug of some sort.


That's what I was thinking.

On the precip-only graph it is showing about 70mm which I understand would be about 70cm give or take, which does sound a hell of a lot!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=76114&model=gfs&var=4&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

However it has been in for a couple of runs now, I was expecting if it was a bug it would go away on the next run.
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This is what the same GEFS information looks like on Meteociel rather than Wetterzentrale.

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I found if you change the run to the 06z then change it back to 00z rather than allowing it to default to most recent (00z), the bug goes away. Must just be a display issue.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
This is GFS op out to +240. Do note that these diagrams are just a very raw representation and particularly out to that range are very subject to change.



However, it does seem increasingly likely that we will break out of the current persistent high pressure that has been around for a little while now around 17/18 January.

Will that mean the particular area of the Alps you are skiing will get lots of snow? Not necessarily. But then you’ll just take that on the chin and be glad someone else is getting the good stuff. Because your strong like that.


It’s happening!
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Perhaps a bit early to get too excited just yet.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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J2R wrote:
I'm willing to convert to any religion which will best guarantee that for me.


I am also keen to repent and worship the required deity
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munich_irish wrote:
Perhaps a bit early to get too excited just yet.


You're no doubt absolutely correct however compared to the seemingly never ending flat lines of the past few weeks its exciting to see a wee bit of potentially snowy activity on the horizon. Madeye-Smiley

Here's hoping.
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So the 50+cm next weekend has suddenly disappeared from Snow-Forecast for ADH Sad
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philmill90 wrote:
So the 50+cm next weekend has suddenly disappeared from Snow-Forecast for ADH Sad


It will fluctuate a lot IMHO over the coming days
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kitenski wrote:
philmill90 wrote:
So the 50+cm next weekend has suddenly disappeared from Snow-Forecast for ADH Sad


It will fluctuate a lot IMHO over the coming days


that snowforecast algo



Very Happy
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@davidof, Laughing
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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GFS has been out on a limb with little support for next week's snow on other models as far as I can tell. So not surprised with the 06Z damp squib.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
What time is the 06Z released?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
FrediKanoute wrote:
What time is the 06Z released?


00z starts coming out at 0330z
06z starts coming out at 0930z
12z starts coming out at 1530z
18z starts coming out at 2130z
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@J2R,@Fridge03, it’s the snow gods of course, and a dance and chanting are in order. Hm, hm, hm snowHead
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The 0.6cm that snowforecast predicted has arrived in Saalbach this morning. Colder too.
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Pattern shift continues to look likely with cooler temperatures. Not yet accompanied by large amounts of snow.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Pattern shift continues to look likely with cooler temperatures. Not yet accompanied by large amounts of snow.


Any medium amounts? Madeye-Smiley
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At least colder temperatures are something, preserving the existing snow cover for longer. I imagine a couple of decent dumps between now and 9 Feb would leave pretty good conditions, as the base is clearly there.
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My 5-10cm of fresh snow which I'd ordered was delivered this morning

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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The high pressure today sitting in a belt across Europe.



By early next week the Atlantic has powered up and a deep low pressure system bears down.



Could be quite punchy for the British Isles. But on this occasion it can’t get through [edit: to the Alps].

But you do end up with this retrogessing high...



As it pulls back it allows the jet to pour over the top bringing cold and fresh snow.





So for now the likelihood of snow for the Alps has been postponed (though the Pyrenees might be worth watching), but possibly not for too long. Will be interesting to see where ECM goes later this evening.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sat 11-01-20 18:54; edited 1 time in total
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There was I thinking that the odds of encountering more than one powder day in January were pretty good-but as I contemplate heading home in 2 weeks on 25th Jan after being here since Boxing day, I can't help feeling rather short changed. Sods law probably means all those half term fair weather skiers will hate it if it dumps in Feb...
Ho hum...I don't mean to sound ungrateful. The piste skiing is still mostly great..
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@davidof, that all looks very pleasant, fresh tracks and blue skies!!
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00z seems to bring some hope back of a change next weekend ... I guess we are in for a bumpy ride if/as the high fights back!
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