 Poster: A snowHead
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The conditions two seasons ago were pretty poor where as season just gone was amazing what indicators can a lay person look for that might give a hint what to expect. I appreciate the complexity of what I’m asking but possibly a trend could be spotted. I’m not asking will it be sunny on a particlar day but more will the conditions exist to allow snow or rain to fall in a particular group of months in an a large area .
Ta
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Lots of examples in the weather thread, but here's my amateur take......you want low pressure to bring in precipitation, and you need the wind to be in the right direction to steer cold air in at the same time.
I have last seasons monthly anomalies handy...so for the N and NW alps, the best conditions tend to come from having high pressure out in the atlantic, ridging up towards Greenland / Iceland. This can send the (meridonal) jet stream down into central europe, bringing both precipitation and polar air, like Nov and Dec 17.
 
However If the low pressure is too far west the anti-clockwise depressions will drag up warm air from the south. And if the low sits further east, then only the eastern alps will benefit. So lots of factors re. each storm cycle.
Looking at the rest of last season below...
Jan the flow was too westerly (flat or zonal jetstream) so storms came in without much cold air mixed in, meaning a lot of rain below 2000 in the west. Less so east as it's generally colder.
Feb the flow tended to be from the south, benefitting Italian alps and southern flanks in south of France / Austria. Temps probably above average as no cold air source.
Mar was the coldest month, with blocking high pressure further north, allowing cold air to come in from the east (Russia). And there was also plently of precipitation coming in from the west.
  
What we don't want to see is a large block of high pressure sitting over central europe in the run up to season opening. In general we want the high pressure to be anywhere else....eg north of Norway, or out in the atlantic.
For this season, it's just too far away still to be looking at models / patterns, but some invest time in teleconnections such as MJO, solar cycles, ENSO etc. Analogues are also popular, eg finding the closest matching patterns from the past.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Anticyclone over the alps is no good for natural snow fall (over the alps) but it may mean that snow making is possible, particularly at the eastern end. The weather for actually skiing will also be ideal. This was the pattern two winters ago.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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blocking over scandi & Easterly winds 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Just watch the big Atlantic jetstream.
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