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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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@rob@rar, yes, but one does not automatically lead to the other.
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Meanwhile the season has started in Central Kiev (Ukraine) after a good snowfall. Only 200m above sea level
That blue-ish run on the left is the first one I ever tackled on proper alpine skis Very Happy

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Mr.Egg wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
The forecasts were for heavy snow above 2000m in parts of the western Alps. It snowed heavily in these areas above 2000m.


like I said
the ones I was checking had no such thing!


Perhaps because the webcams you were presumably looking at around Innsbruck aren’t in the western Alps wink

Regardless, there was snow at altitude on Sunday and Monday at Stubai, Kühtai, Nordkette, etc, all visible on the webcams (and in person), but more like 10-15cm. Then it rained to very high up. Nordkette peaks still showing fresh snow. Lots of really nice photos and videos floating around from Stubai yesterday.

Snowing in Lech currently: https://www.bergfex.com/lech-zuers-arlberg/webcams/c3482/

And warm and sunny in Innsbruck... Crazy weather difference given the distance involved! Normally only really see that sort of difference when you compare north and south of the Brenner.


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Tue 4-12-18 11:17; edited 2 times in total
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polo wrote:


ECM and GFS both penciling in up to 100cm for northern flank to low levels sat-mon, again been consistently modelled from 7-8 days out.
Rest of next week is still largely FI, with most output pointing at a ridge up towards Iceland, leaving alps in a cool and drier easterly, so not bad. And increasing chances of a rare Dec SSW unfolding, which would likely lead to a cold Jan if it comes off.


The current Bergfex (ECM-based?) maps are showing a lot less snow accumulation E of the Arlberg than previously. https://www.bergfex.com/schneevorhersage/5/#images-2

But today's 06Z GFS 6 day accumulation maps still showing hotspots over 200cm in Salzburgerland, more than anywhere else in the N Alps. http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif

Which variation is more likely? More in the West or the East?
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@luigi, the Bergfex map is for snowfall and goes out to +144 and the GFS chart is for precipitation and goes out to +180. So a slight case of apples and pears.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@luigi, the Bergfex map is for snowfall and goes out to +144 and the GFS chart is for precipitation and goes out to +180. So a slight case of apples and pears.


Ah yes, they're both measuring snow in slightly different ways, but they are different timeframes, so maybe more snow expected in the East, but arriving later??


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Tue 4-12-18 11:26; edited 3 times in total
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Quote:

Perhaps because the webcams you were presumably looking at around Innsbruck aren’t in the western Alps

Laughing
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@luigi, the Bergfex map is for snowfall and goes out to +144 and the GFS chart is for precipitation and goes out to +180. So a slight case of apples and pears.


I just checked the Bergfex individual resort forecasts which go out 9 days and the bulk of the snow in the East is looking to arrive Mon/Tues next week which is toward the end of the GFS +180 outlook.

I'm taking a group of friends to Zell/Kaprun in early Jan, most haven't been in years, so seeing a good base laid down now instead of soggy artificial strips in brown meadows would put my mind at ease! snowHead
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polo wrote:
Mr.Egg wrote:
All the reports for the last 7-10 days have been wrong by a fair margin.


what forecasts were you looking at?
Posts on this thread have been spot on the last 7-10 days, models predicted rain to high levels, and they have been very accurate from what I can see. No reason at all to think the coming weekend won't be as accurate.

ECM and GFS both penciling in up to 100cm for northern flank to low levels sat-mon, again been consistently modelled from 7-8 days out.
Rest of next week is still largely FI, with most output pointing at a ridge up towards Iceland, leaving alps in a cool and drier easterly, so not bad. And increasing chances of a rare Dec SSW unfolding, which would likely lead to a cold Jan if it comes off.


Lots!
resorts own report
Yr.No
snow-forecast
wxcharts
bluemeteo

Maybe just being unlucky with my choice of resorts. We dont do big areas due to the makeup of our group & differences in abilities.
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clarky999 wrote:
Mr.Egg wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
The forecasts were for heavy snow above 2000m in parts of the western Alps. It snowed heavily in these areas above 2000m.


like I said
the ones I was checking had no such thing!


Perhaps because the webcams you were presumably looking at around Innsbruck aren’t in the western Alps wink


Naa, I have been keeping an eye on my other booked trip in France as well.
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clarky999 wrote:


Snowing in Lech currently: https://www.bergfex.com/lech-zuers-arlberg/webcams/c3482/
.


dont show me that. I have convinced myself its not worth the effort to cancel 2 nights in Innsbruck & go St Anton for 2 nights instead & having final 3 nights in Innsbruck.
Pinning my hopes on Stubai unless Shlick gets a dump (which looks quite changeable). Gotta find something with cruising blues fto keep her happy.
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@Mr.Egg, back 3 pages, at least 4 posts on the 28/29th mentioning how warm / wet / mild it's going to be for 'next week', with the heavier falls in the west.

Snow-forecast (GFS) isn't as consistent as others as it runs 4 times a day, delayed, and the GFS output at that range can swing wildly, so you may well have seen a few nice numbers pop up, but the trend to mild was picked up early and modelled well (unfortunately). ECM/YR been solid all week.

The biggest problem with Snowforecast and Bergfex etc is they don't manage the resort peaks very well. For example, the highest point in Les Gets is 2000m, so Bergfex is showing 7cm for thursday (snowline 1720m) at the top of the resort. The FL will be around 2100, so you would expect a snowline of 1800m approx. But of course snowfall doesn't work like that, and even if the top peak got a few flakes, it's no use to anyone. So the 7cm is misleading.

On Bergfex you can click on each day separately to get a better breakdown of how much falls during the day and at what level.
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Explain like I'm Five [ELI5]: Do you reckon there will be a big dump of snow in Val Thorens soon. Thanks! snowHead
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 You know it makes sense.
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@Poogle, in a word, yes

https://www.yr.no/place/France/Rh%C3%B4ne-Alpes/Val_Thorens/long.html
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Just checked the wePowder forecast and I think I now understand what's happening over the next week or so. 3 storm depressions hitting the Alps: Kerrin, Luana & one beginning with M-, presumably.

The cold front associated with Kerrin today is cooling things rapidly but petering out, Luana later in the week brings a warm front with very mild air but delivers snow to the High Alpine in the NW.
But the third one which starts to hit on Saturday brings a classic 'slide' scenario drawing cold air from the Arctic down the North Sea picking up moisture all the way and stacks it into the Northern Alps creating a Nordstau with abundant snowfall to low levels over several days in the NW Alps then right across the N Alps.

https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/261491

The chart is very helpful:



Let's hope the M- storm does its business!! snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
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luigi wrote:


The chart is very helpful:



Let's hope the M- storm does its business!! snowHead


And this is how those various depressions might track through?



A very volatile scenario indeed!
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Some serious snow accumulations starting to show for weekend! Fingers crossed!
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Oh god, this is making my 5th Jan trip to destination-not-yet-decided look like a much more exciting prospect!
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So if the predicted snowfall of the next few days comes off the only thing that could ruin piste skiing for the rest of the month in the resorts that receive at least 50cm is a freak rain event?
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sbooker wrote:
... the only thing that could ruin piste skiing...


Or too many storms and they stop running the transfers, which happened to my friends (and just a few others as well) last year.

Much as I like GVA airport, I don't want to spend my whole weekend there
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@sbooker, Of course a bit of rain between dumps helps to form a solid base. It’s surprising how much rain the pistes can sometimes absorb as long as it freezes again afterwards.
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tatmanstours wrote:
Quote:

Without being too picky, think you will find Zell (and Saalbach) are in the Tyrol

@PeterGee, I can confirm that we (fortunately, as the Tyrol is more restrictive on buying property) and also Zell am See are in Salzburgerland. The TirolS gondola, which connects Saalbach-Hinterglemm with Fieberbrunn spans the border, but we don't need passports Laughing


I stand corrected and educated, thank you.

I am now duely looking forward to skiing in Salzburgereland in January Happy
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I have a feeling you will enjoy it Smile

In the Amade region the current higher temps have not seemed to affect the pistes, more are opening now, and with the coming cold snap I am hoping that the forest base freezes well and sets up the season. The only problem is that there are still too many rocks and branches protruding so for the first couple of dumps it may be advisable to dig out your older all mountain or fat skis for some off piste, unless you are rich or enjoy carrying out base repairs Madeye-Smiley
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sbooker wrote:
So if the predicted snowfall of the next few days comes off the only thing that could ruin piste skiing for the rest of the month in the resorts that receive at least 50cm is a freak rain event?


Have to be very freak. Takes a lot of rain to melt packed piste snow - it's all due to the latent energy of water solid/liquid transition

If is wasn't for that, and snow being white we wouldn't have skiing.
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EarthWindandWater wrote:
sbooker wrote:
... the only thing that could ruin piste skiing...


Or too many storms and they stop running the transfers, which happened to my friends (and just a few others as well) last year.

Much as I like GVA airport, I don't want to spend my whole weekend there


GVA airport is great once you get to the main bit from the charter flight shuttle. That bit is pretty awful; took us 2 hours last year from arriving to getting to the main building by which time the flight had been called.
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tatmanstours wrote:
Quote:

Without being too picky, think you will find Zell (and Saalbach) are in the Tyrol

@PeterGee, I can confirm that we (fortunately, as the Tyrol is more restrictive on buying property) and also Zell am See are in Salzburgerland. The TirolS gondola, which connects Saalbach-Hinterglemm with Fieberbrunn spans the border, but we don't need passports Laughing


Until Tirexit that is...
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Quote:

So if the predicted snowfall of the next few days comes off the only thing that could ruin piste skiing for the rest of the month in the resorts that receive at least 50cm is a freak rain event?

I expect there'll be a fair bit of local variation. In general it looks like most of France, Switzerland and Austria should get a decent amount of snow, but Italy may have a lot less. Based on your itinerary, I think the Aosta valley may have snow, but you may find a lot more snow the other side of the big hills into France or Switzerland. I don't know the Dolomites that well, but that may be predominantly on artificial snow, and that's dependent on it being cold enough to make snow
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Great storm coming this weekend and into early next week. Massive dump across northern and western alps. Should setup a base that will hold through until at least Xmas. Looks like those who booked early season trips Will get lucky!
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buchanan101 wrote:


GVA airport is great


Are you from Luton?
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BobinCH wrote:
Great storm coming this weekend and into early next week.


Late next week also showing some potential in FI on the latest GFS, at least for us lowlanders in the NW alps.
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snoozeboy wrote:
buchanan101 wrote:


GVA airport is great


Are you from Luton?


Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Quote:
Looks like those who booked early season trips will get lucky!
Not only that, I'm hoping that the snow conditions will be good too! Laughing
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Plenty of snow on its way, increasingly down to valley levels and getting very cold. Over a metre in some areas with a large temperature gradient over a few days. Potential for some dangerous early season avalanche conditions. I'm stopping the snow dances now.
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when this amount of snow falls on bare ground (which is still the case in lower resorts), it's not good is it? No solid base to stick to.
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base has to start somewhere!
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Oleski wrote:
when this amount of snow falls on bare ground (which is still the case in lower resorts), it's not good is it? No solid base to stick to.


Well there has to be a season starting fall of snow lower down sometime and its certainly good news that its coming just before the season starts this time. Remember lower down is usually pasture and while the ground perhaps hasn't cooled a lot yet they'll fire the cannons and piste it down and make the most of it regardless. Theres already a good base above 2000m for the higher resorts. In recent years this big dump of snow has come either after Christmas, mid November or even into the new year
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Oleski wrote:
when this amount of snow falls on bare ground (which is still the case in lower resorts), it's not good is it? No solid base to stick to.

Congratulations on finding a negative angle rolling eyes Laughing Shocked wink

Are you the guy that worries that at the end of a drought when it rains the ground won't absorb the water and will lay on the surface Laughing Laughing
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Took advantage of the current Spring-like conditions with a very nice ski tour in temps on par with a day in April after a good overnight freeze.

Snow was a mixture of creamy Spring snow and creamy powder, very pleasant, and would have been better if I'd been on wider skis.

Interesting in that this time of year it's a totally different thought process/modus operandi to find/ski transformed snow.

Nice vid in the Serre thread
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Oleski wrote:
when this amount of snow falls on bare ground (which is still the case in lower resorts), it's not good is it? No solid base to stick to.


All snow is good. Fresh snow is better. Cold, fresh snow is best. That’s what we’re getting. Lots of it. Rejoice!
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I'll take any kind of snow we can get as we need to start somewhere.
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