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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Would I be right in thinking next ten days or so will be turbulent with storms coming in and yo yo-ing temperatures and winds? IE there will be snow but it will be hard to track and not ideal conditions?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
8611 wrote:
Would I be right in thinking next ten days or so will be turbulent with storms coming in and yo yo-ing temperatures and winds? IE there will be snow but it will be hard to track and not ideal conditions?


It is looking that way. Take care off piste with all this wind.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@8611, more so on the northern side of the Alps. Temperatures higher in the west. Mid month still looming like snow to low levels, but that a way off. Very strong Föhn today.

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I'm in the market for this weekend and my mates are going next weekend and wondering where they should head but it all looks a bit up in the air and tempestuous and I think the focus should be on pistes that have been replenished rather than powder chasing. Looks to me from wepowder charts at least that there could be a lot of rain.
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@8611, yep stormy and snowlines between 1500 and 2000m. Calmer south and east. Colder next week.
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ECM snowfall over next 10 days. Snowline up and down.

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Snow showers at 1250 meters at Chamrousse at the moment. Lots of trees down.
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@davidof, presumably trees down via wind not the weight of snow??
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kitenski wrote:
@davidof, presumably trees down via wind not the weight of snow??


yes wind, huge storm last night, even parked my car out in the open as I was worried about roof tiles hitting it
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davidof wrote:
Snow showers at 1250 meters at Chamrousse at the moment. Lots of trees down.


1250 meters? The lowest village in Chamrousse is 1605 meters.
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Joy Zipper wrote:
davidof wrote:
Snow showers at 1250 meters at Chamrousse at the moment. Lots of trees down.


1250 meters? The lowest village in Chamrousse is 1605 meters.


So above the snowline
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Light snow in Saas last night and blasting up the mountain indicating a fair bit higher up. Lots of new on the slopes yesterday, but is is warm in the day. Bright and clear this morning, and looks like being a great day.
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Mr.Egg wrote:
Joy Zipper wrote:
davidof wrote:
Snow showers at 1250 meters at Chamrousse at the moment. Lots of trees down.


1250 meters? The lowest village in Chamrousse is 1605 meters.


So above the snowline


Indeed.

The lowest point of the station is 1380 meters at Casserouse but I was driving up to la Roche Beranger and the rain turned to snow at the level of le Luitel at 1250 meters.
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 You know it makes sense.
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STUPID QUESTION WARNING!

On the ensemble graph, where precipitation is shown in mm, is the value shown (if borne out in real life) the thickness on the ground? I have a vague memory that a mm of precip translates to 'more' snow. Stupid or not? Thanks.
CG
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@Charliegolf,
its litres per square meter
so 1mm = 1 litre of rain fallen on 1square meter.
Snow is usually x10, so 1mm = 1cm, but not all snow is the same... some snowflakes may land flat, rather than on its edge so has less height wink Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Toofy Grin Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Charliegolf wrote:
STUPID QUESTION WARNING!

On the ensemble graph, where precipitation is shown in mm, is the value shown (if borne out in real life) the thickness on the ground? I have a vague memory that a mm of precip translates to 'more' snow. Stupid or not? Thanks.
CG

I think the rule of thumb is usually 1mm rain = 1cm snow but it depends on how wet the snow is and other factors.
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There's the memory, dragged to the top again. Thanks both.
CG
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Things turning distinctly cold in northern Alps...



The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Zermatt



Eastern Pyrenees

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Smile @nozawaonsen, thanks.
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Be careful if you're driving through Grenoble this weekend, on the way to the snow.

Yellow Vests stirring the pot.

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Weekend warriors getting excited...
Blush

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Lots of rain today, even quite high up. And sticky snow.
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Record snow mass for Northern Hemisphere (excluding mountains) for winter 2018/19:

https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

Just found that on my meanderings around the internet. I shall leave those with bigger brains then I to put it all in context etc.
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Thanks....seems to me there is a feeling on this thread... this vaunted and inspiring thread.. that winter is waning.

But nope - it is just in its adolescence....fear not and focus people....focus.

Winter is still coming.
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Skied all day, very happily, around Brevent and Flegere today. Lots of rain/snow falling, visibility a bit iffy at times, but under-foot/ski the snow is tip-top. The wind dropped off in the pm. Word from hotel reception is that Monday will be similar, Tuesday Bluebird. Bought new gloves, as 20 year old pair appear to have acquired sponge properties.
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@Brothergrimm,
Hallelujah!
Preach it Brother!
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Snow should resume on Monday into Tuesday for the Cascade range of Washington and Oregon. British Columbia should get some love as well. The storm track will take it into NW CO and also get the Wasatch range some freshies. Not a big storm but as the storm energy is coming out of the Gulf Of Alaska, it will be cold, and provide some nice lighter than average powder for the Cascades.

Looks like the longer range forecast shows clearing later in the week. Could be a 7 day stretch after this storm of high pressure building in. FI looks like there may be some more moisture coming but as usual too soon to say what might develop.
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Has anyone got a link to the factors that determine the cold blowey-ness of powder? I'm interested in a practical sense for my trips in europe as I often jet off at last minute and sometimes its heavier than others. I'm interested in the US situation generally and hope to go sometime.

Don't want to derail thread and I'm sure its been asked / posted before?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@8611, this sort of thing?

https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/courses/atsc113/snow/met_concepts/07-met_concepts/07b-newly-fallen-snow-density/
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Woot woot!

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 Poster: A snowHead
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some healthy looking numbers here
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif
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Big plunge in temperatures in the French N.A. on Sunday with some snow (a few cms) in the afternoon.

Better weather today (but I'm in sunny Paris atm) and tomorrow with a return to March Showers (giboulées de mars) on Wednesday to the weekend with snow down to 600 meters at times. It would be nice to get a substantial dump down to say 1200 meters but it looks like more moderate falls.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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ECM snowfall over next 10 days.



Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Mon 11-03-19 13:00; edited 1 time in total
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Looks like virtually everything is closed at Tignes/VDI right now. Another big squall by the look of it.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
ECM snowfall over next 10 days.

Looks like - apart from a sprinkling - it's missing the Dolomites (I think). Sad
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Hurtle wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
ECM snowfall over next 10 days.

Looks like - apart from a sprinkling - it's missing the Dolomites (I think). Sad

You consider 40cm "a sprinkling"?
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Peter S wrote:
Looks like virtually everything is closed at Tignes/VDI right now. Another big squall by the look of it.

Same in 3V. Morning was ok but afternoon brutal.
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Same in Davos. Was stuck at tbe top of Gotschnabahn for over an hour as all runs and lifts were closed. Very little open this afternoon.
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@südtirolistdeutsch,
Quote:

You consider 40cm "a sprinkling"?
No, I just wasn't quite sure of the geography, the map is tiny on my phone. And Bergfex, which is usually fairly accurate ime, has a lot less than that.
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Yes, just survived blizzard conditions in Zermatt. Around 10cm minimum in town now and well below freezing. Sunnega lift ( through the mountain) was pretty much the only lift running 3hours ago
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