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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
under a new name wrote:
.........What is not to like?...........


The feckin high season hordes and idiots on the slopes Laughing

That said we did our best to avoid them going off the back and it was just us and no one else and no other tracks, bliss....

Until we climbed back into resort and joined them all rolling eyes



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Well our guests had a fantastic day today, despite the hordes, and all the snow having melted Toofy Grin
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12z GFS throws this out at the start of March.



That would bring cold and snow across the Alps.

Worth saying that 00z and 06z had no interest in this (though 18z did).
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@nozawaonsen, interesting. Am I right in thinking that might have nice implications also for Scotland?
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@Inboard, yes if that came off it would bring snow to Scotland.
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@under a new name,

To be honest here in the Arlberg ... there is certainly great snow to be found .. and especially over Zurs, Lech and Warth, but the vast majority of the piste conditions above St Anton aren’t great today and even as a skier whose done years of seasons in the past they can only be described as icy and in poor condition for a long period of the day. I don’t care what any says .... 3 days ago the conditions were PERFECT here .. everywhere ... so if you think this sun and temps arent damaging the slopes you either are not out skiing or are just playing a game. 14 days more of this and even with a massive base, the conditions will be pretty dire both on and off piste. Maybe the offpiste will turn more spring like and corn, but there wasn’t much to seen of that today.

Chamonix in 2 weeks time with no snow? Flegere / Brevent will have huge brown patches and the GM will be one huge mogul field.

I’m just being honest. Good example being on Thursday I was skiing perfect powder .. that slope today was as crusty and disgusting.

But I’m loving the sun on the terrace and hunting out good snow. Just think your overview isn’t based on fact.

Alex
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Alex A wrote:
@under a new name,

To be honest here in the Arlberg ... there is certainly great snow to be found .. and especially over Zurs, Lech and Warth, but the vast majority of the piste conditions above St Anton aren’t great today and even as a skier whose done years of seasons in the past they can only be described as icy and in poor condition for a long period of the day. I don’t care what any says .... 3 days ago the conditions were PERFECT here .. everywhere ... so if you think this sun and temps arent damaging the slopes you either are not out skiing or are just playing a game. 14 days more of this and even with a massive base, the conditions will be pretty dire both on and off piste. Maybe the offpiste will turn more spring like and corn, but there wasn’t much to seen of that today.

Chamonix in 2 weeks time with no snow? Flegere / Brevent will have huge brown patches and the GM will be one huge mogul field.

I’m just being honest. Good example being on Thursday I was skiing perfect powder .. that slope today was as crusty and disgusting.

But I’m loving the sun on the terrace and hunting out good snow. Just think your overview isn’t based on fact.

Alex


Sorry, but I’m going to have to strongly disagree with you ... we had a cracking day cruising around Gampen, Galzig and St Christoph. The snow was grippy in the morning, softening under the strong sun in the afternoon. We did “encounter” some soft moguls on the way home but they were just lovely to board around. Having lunch on the Hospiz Alm terrace in a t-shirt in February was superb - what’s not to like? And given that this is a weather thread ... the skies were a stunning blue and the sun was shining all day. Enjoy your precious time on the mountain people.
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Going to echo this. I didn’t plan for t-shirt days at Tigne in Feb, but that’s what i am having. Seriously considering just a skin and a t tomorrow!
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We had a really decent day in Chamonix. Hardly any slush but at the absolute bottom of the valley around 13-14 o clock, and even found some fresh patches off piste. Not too warm, and all in all a good day.

Also, im considering ending my obsessive forecast watching.
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@staffsan, glad to hear you found some good stuff!
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staffsan wrote:
We had a really decent day in Chamonix. Hardly any slush but at the absolute bottom of the valley around 13-14 o clock, and even found some fresh patches off piste. Not too warm, and all in all a good day.

Also, im considering ending my obsessive forecast watching.


There is a God.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS throws this out at the start of March.



That would bring cold and snow across the Alps.

Worth saying that 00z and 06z had no interest in this (though 18z did).


Hopefully bringing cold weather to Scandanavia?
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Any signs of the warm spell coming to an end yet?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Handy Turnip wrote:
Any signs of the warm spell coming to an end yet?


look at the image above your post

rolling eyes
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Mr.Egg wrote:
Handy Turnip wrote:
Any signs of the warm spell coming to an end yet?


look at the image above your post

rolling eyes


Okay I’ll rephrase the question - any more signs confirming that the warm spell might be coming to an end bearing in the mind the level of uncertainty coming through the different model runs?

And a rolling eyes back at you, Mr.Egg
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Handy Turnip, Not good for french alps.

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@Alex A, based on my observations... skiing Saturday and Sunday.
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Cheers @Mr.Egg for the update, much appreciated.
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@Handy Turnip, 06z GFS produces colder than average temperatures and snowfall for the Alps in early March. However, that still remains over 10 days out.
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Is it really that warm? Yesterday was +3 at 1800m at 2pm. Pleasant sunshine, pistes in perfect condition. This morning was -9 at 520m at 7am. Perhaps the heatwave isn't so severe this far east.
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06Z run on GFS is showing welcome distinct cooling from the start of March in Zermatt, back to 'normal' temps, with hints at precipitation. Usual caveats, but trying to cheer myself up for a later than usual trip. Which is what Noza said I know!


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Mon 18-02-19 15:35; edited 2 times in total
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queenie pretty please wrote:
Is it really that warm? Yesterday was +3 at 1800m at 2pm. Pleasant sunshine, pistes in perfect condition. This morning was -9 at 520m at 7am. Perhaps the heatwave isn't so severe this far east.


Since the 14th it has been above freezing at the summit of the la Plagne ski slopes at 3000m. That would be more like April weather. No freeze below 2300 meters since the 13th in Grenoble. I would say it is unusually warm for mid February.

In Clerment Ferrand they've had 19C for the last 4 days, a record. Temperatures are around 6 to 10 degrees above average.

So long as we don't get another 3 month heatwave this summer Sad
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Thanks @nozawaonsen, I know it’s still a long way off in FI but it’s nice to know there’s some potential cold weather in sight!
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It might be fine, warm and sunny, but here 250m below the bottom of Paradiski the ice on our road hasn't melted yet, and untouched snow is still 2ft deep.
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There's some weird inversions as well - I left my house on Sunday morning (620 metres altitude) and the temp was -2 deg. Drove to les mosses, which is roughly an hour and 15 mins away and at 7.30 am it was 4 deg c there. At 1200 metres. Very weird. Pistes were in great nick and remained so all day, but that inversion was a surprise.
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Yeah baby yeah

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early march looking good if it pans out

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GFS00 supports a shift early March. Although far out, a shift after 3 weeks when having a continental high in the winter time is not unlikely..
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Woosh wrote:
GFS00 supports a shift early March. Although far out, a shift after 3 weeks when having a continental high in the winter time is not unlikely..


all that warm air sucking up water ready to dump on the alps snowHead free snowHead
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Woosh wrote:
GFS00 supports a shift early March. Although far out, a shift after 3 weeks when having a continental high in the winter time is not unlikely..


Yes around about the 3rd March. Next week looks like continued very warm weather. Looking at the weather stations the shaded slopes are holding up quite well as the nights are still quite long but in the French alps we lost 30-50cm in the last week on sun exposed slopes - settling and melt.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Looks like the warm temperatures are not only continuing through the week but increasing!!
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Interestingly saw this this morning

UKs warmest February day was 13th Feb 1998. Reaching 19.7C at Greenwich, London and 18.1C as far north as Hull. High pressure over central Europe resulted in flow of very warm air from north west Africa.

Tried to copy the maps but couldn’t No surprise but basically the same set up we have at the moment
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(replicated from the PDS thread)

I have been trying to go where the people are not. Pistes are still OK - bulletproof in the morning as it is cold overnight, so great for the race skis, and lovely around midday. Slushy by the afternoon, which I don't mind.

However, there are people everywhere, and whilst the everyone is friendly and fine, and lift queues (aart from at the bottom) are generally OK, Avoriaz is a total mess with big lines, and Pleney/Morzine is a disaster in the morning, as is access at Ardent. Even parking at the usually deserted Nyon is full. Snowploughing kids everywhere!

So we went for a walk, that was sometimes a crawl. I call it good ACL graft rehab. Much of the mountain is sliding now, so this really was more of a walk than a ski, as much of the off-piste is a bit dangerous now. Lots of visibly large avalanche slides all over the peaks, showing grass underneath were the snowpack has just come off completely.

IMG-20190218-WA0010~2 by baconrashers, on Flickr

IMG-20190218-WA0008 by baconrashers, on Flickr
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06gfs still holding up early March lowering of temps and precipitation for Zermatt at least. Here's hoping so far out snowHead
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Went for a ski tour today up from the Lautaret having cycled up there yesterday, and clocked that not too many people had been up to a sector we like to play in.

Our objective was to ski spring snow and the face did not look too bad, and totally untracked, however, I was surprised at the cold snow on North facing slopes and like yesterday there was a chill wind blowing which would not help any transformation on the S facing slopes at that altitude

A group of five caught us up and they carried on whilst I let them go and then when they were out of sight I turned towards the Crête and the North facing slope, has to be said that there was a lot of wind affected snow and sastrugi, but I had an inkling that where I was heading could be rather good.

Anyway as they say a picture paints a thousand words Cool



That face down from the cornice of the Crête is a good 35%+ and the OH must have thought she was Swiss skiing so close to my tracks, obviously conserving the snow snowHead



Looks like the iso by the end of the week is way above 3,000m so that could do for the stashes of cold snow still left.

That said looks like the possibility of change on the horizon, which will be good news to all the SnowHeads coming out here for the off-piste bash.

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Skied Arosa-Lenzerheide yesterday. The weather is lovely, but disconcertingly warm given the time of year. There is still A LOT of snow, particularly in Arosa whose base is 1,800 meters I believe. On piste the snow was nice and grippy. We hit Lenzerheide in the afternoon -- the (relatively?) new connection between both resorts is fantastic -- where the snow was a bit icier on the north facing slopes before softening by the afternoon. It only got mushy toward the very very bottom.

Heading to the Arlberg this weekend -- will be interesting to see what's happened to their huge base.

I'm not overly concerned by this warm spell. But, considering its length, will keep my fingers crossed for another big storm in March.
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ArlbergMeister wrote:
Skied Arosa-Lenzerheide yesterday. The weather is lovely, but disconcertingly warm given the time of year. There is still A LOT of snow, particularly in Arosa whose base is 1,800 meters I believe. On piste the snow was nice and grippy. We hit Lenzerheide in the afternoon -- the (relatively?) new connection between both resorts is fantastic -- where the snow was a bit icier on the north facing slopes before softening by the afternoon. It only got mushy toward the very very bottom.


I'm jealous - no Arosa for me this season, sadly! The Urdenbahn was built in 2013 and I think it opened for the 2013/14 season. It really is a marvellous piece of work.

Anyway, here's hoping for colder weather for early March; one trip to northern France and March and then April trips to Saas Fee. Very Happy
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When is the change coming folks?
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hedley wrote:
When is the change coming folks?

Late 40's, early 50's for most women wink Toofy Grin Laughing
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@Layne, Not appropriate, not funny. Sort it out.
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