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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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GFS 12Z appears to have shifted next weekend's storm west, which would be good news for the northern French Alps while still delivering a healthy dump (again) for Switzerland and Austria away from the south. Milder than it is currently, but at this stage still looking like a snowline at or below most skiing altitudes (i.e. 1000-1200m in the west, lower in the east). Then likely becoming colder again following the storm.

Nothing of real promise for the Southern Alps at this stage within a reliable timeframe.

Will the 18Z move things back east?
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Noticeable how cold the ensembles trend after mid month. This storm looks like the last for a while in Austria, but is going to be big.

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Zermatt



Eastern Pyrenees

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sounds perfect . heading to mayrhofen on 19th . snow before we go followed by a week of cold days with blue skys would be nice . thanks for all the forecasts on here . quite addictive viewing
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@nozawaonsen, is there any way to figure the total precipitation over a time period (say, chamonix 13-15 jan Blush ) from the ensemble charts?
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A quick look at what's under the fresh snow

Shocked
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@davidof, o0

Where is that taken?
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@staffsan, it is very difficult to forecast snowfall with any accuracy. And in any case it’s going to get blown all over the place, but this is the same information in different formats.

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions/27625/chamonix_mont_blanc.htm



Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 10-01-19 21:58; edited 1 time in total
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staffsan wrote:
@davidof, o0

Where is that taken?


Belledonne mountains, France. 1600 meters altitude. Probably an area that got blitzed by rain over Christmas, there is about 5cm of ice on top of snow. There was ice everywhere. A bit more fresh snow and it should be good.
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@nozawaonsen, @davidof, thakn you guys!
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davidof wrote:
Belledonne mountains, France. 1600 meters altitude. Probably an area that got blitzed by rain over Christmas, there is about 5cm of ice on top of snow. There was ice everywhere. A bit more fresh snow and it should be good.
That's proper ice! Not often you see frozen water.
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A good overview of the current situation in Tirol from LWD Tirol.

https://avalanche.report/albina-web/blog/avalanche-warning-service-tirol.blogspot.com/2904881366578868024?lang=en
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davidof wrote:
A quick look at what's under the fresh snow

I think that stewart woodward will be racing on that at the weekend.
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rjs wrote:
davidof wrote:
A quick look at what's under the fresh snow

I think that stewart woodward will be racing on that at the weekend.


He'll probably want it water injected.
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You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Snow&skifan, I would anticipate 1m to 1.5m with storm force winds for the Arlberg. The wind is particular is likely to make things difficult.


Thank you. Going by the already incredible webcam shots of resort level Lech and Warth, it’s going look amazing away from the bulldozed/snowblown road. Dangerous too.
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davidof wrote:
rjs wrote:
davidof wrote:
A quick look at what's under the fresh snow

I think that stewart woodward will be racing on that at the weekend.


He'll probably want it water injected.
Laughing
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tim000 wrote:
sounds perfect . heading to mayrhofen on 19th . snow before we go followed by a week of cold days with blue skys would be nice . thanks for all the forecasts on here . quite addictive viewing


Where are you seeing that, i am in mayrhofen the same week and any forecasts i see don't seem to feature much blue-sky. I don't pretend to be able to understand models etc on here though
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kb36 wrote:


Where are you seeing that, i am in mayrhofen the same week and any forecasts i see don't seem to feature much blue-sky. I don't pretend to be able to understand models etc on here though


I think it was a wish list rather than a forecast. wink
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This is looking pretty snowy in FI no?

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@scotspikey, where is that?
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scotspikey wrote:
This is looking pretty snowy in FI no?



Where is that for?
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@scotspikey, a few ensembles are suggesting that, but it’s not a strong signal and in particular hasn’t brought the operational run with it (not that you can see it in that chart). In FI in any case you really want to see a sustained signal to separate from the noise and you can’t do that from one run. What is potentially more interesting is the increasing likelihood that the impacts of the SSW may start to be felt towards the end of the month. -NAO tends to push the jet stream south. All conjecture at this stage mind you.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@scotspikey, a few ensembles are suggesting that, but it’s not a strong signal and in particular hasn’t brought the operational run with it (not that you can see it in that chart). In FI in any case you really want to see a sustained signal to separate from the noise and you can’t do that from one run. What is potentially more interesting is the increasing likelihood that the impacts of the SSW may start to be felt towards the end of the month. -NAO tends to push the jet stream south. All conjecture at this stage mind you.


What would happen with impact of the SSW and jet stream pushed south?
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@Raven, if the SSW disrupts the polar vortex it increases the likelihood of high level blocking (static high pressure systems at northern latitudes). This increases the possibility that the jet stream is driven south which increases the chances of cold weather and possibly more snow on the southern side of the Alps as a result of a more southerly jet stream.
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Raven wrote:
scotspikey wrote:
This is looking pretty snowy in FI no?



Where is that for?


How about 46 11 ?


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Fri 11-01-19 10:25; edited 1 time in total
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nozawaonsen wrote:
A good overview of the current situation in Tirol from LWD Tirol.

https://avalanche.report/albina-web/blog/avalanche-warning-service-tirol.blogspot.com/2904881366578868024?lang=en


I've been following this: [url= http://liveblog.tt.com/live/winter-in-tirol ][/url] from tiroler tageszeitung which gives quite an insight into what's going on!
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Looking at GFS 850hp + precipitation ensemble, it looks like there's going to be a constant drizzle of snow from the 17th and onwards at least in the North+northwest, if im not interpreting it badly?
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@staffsan, essentially you have interpreted the forecast correctly. However when you get constant lowish levels of precipitation forecast for more than a week away, this usually just means a generally unsettled outlook, and that the different lines / runs just disagree on the exact times where precipitation will fall. I would expect that as the 17th gets nearer, the lines will come into agreement and group themselves into peaks and troughs based on when fronts arrive.

Constant precipitation over several days is actually pretty unusual (though as the last week in Austria has shown, it can happen!).
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Lech the pick of the bunch this weekend.

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Been lurking for a bit and been enjoying the thread - informative and a little addictive! I’m a bit confused about something though that maybe someone can help explain...
...This storm coming from the north on Sunday and Monday is seemingly a similar set up to the previous recent northern stau storms which have delivered so much snow to the north east Alps. From my understanding the alpine ridge stops the snow from travelling further south. I’m a fairly frequent visitor to Alta Badia and so have been keeping a keen eye on the snowfall (or lack of it) in the Dolomites. As predicted they have only been getting the occasional light dusting of snow. However it seems that the forecasts are predicting more for the Dolomites this time round. I’m curious as to what has changed and what is allowing the snow to sink further south (if that actually ends up being the case - I’ve learnt to become a snow pessimist!). Can anyone shed any light on the matter? Should us Dolomite lovers be feeling more optimistic that we’ll get more than the odd flurry being blown over this time?
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Welcome to snowHeads, @KatiePopple - great first post! No idea of the answer, but one of these other clever weather bods will!
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KatiePopple wrote:
Been lurking for a bit and been enjoying the thread - informative and a little addictive! I’m a bit confused about something though that maybe someone can help explain...
...This storm coming from the north on Sunday and Monday is seemingly a similar set up to the previous recent northern stau storms which have delivered so much snow to the north east Alps. From my understanding the alpine ridge stops the snow from travelling further south. I’m a fairly frequent visitor to Alta Badia and so have been keeping a keen eye on the snowfall (or lack of it) in the Dolomites. As predicted they have only been getting the occasional light dusting of snow. However it seems that the forecasts are predicting more for the Dolomites this time round. I’m curious as to what has changed and what is allowing the snow to sink further south (if that actually ends up being the case - I’ve learnt to become a snow pessimist!). Can anyone shed any light on the matter? Should us Dolomite lovers be feeling more optimistic that we’ll get more than the odd flurry being blown over this time?


I dont know the exact answer but it seems as if this storm will pack quite a punch for a period of time and thus will affect areas a bit further south than the alpine ridge. The previous storms also affected areas just south of the ridge but only where they literally border onto the ridge. AT the moment the forecasts are predicting a few cm as far down as the Sella ROnda area resorts. What actually happens remains to be seen. Think right now I'll take anything that falls even if it is a few cm
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Handy Turnip wrote:
Welcome to snowHeads, @KatiePopple - great first post! No idea of the answer, but one of these other clever weather bods will!


Indeed a considered and pertinent question. Quite the rarity in this thread.
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Snow Hound wrote:
Handy Turnip wrote:
Welcome to snowHeads, @KatiePopple - great first post! No idea of the answer, but one of these other clever weather bods will!


Indeed a considered and pertinent question. Quite the rarity in this thread.


Smile I can't promise I'll always have something interesting to say!
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Thanks @jimmybog, I agree that even just a little bit of snow would make a difference to how things look there. I believe the piste skiing is still good but be nice if the grassy bits got covered up!
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KatiePopple wrote:
Thanks @jimmybog, I agree that even just a little bit of snow would make a difference to how things look there. I believe the piste skiing is still good but be nice if the grassy bits got covered up!


Yes I agree. Looking at recent videos on youtube, there is a lot of brown grass around. However in some places higher up it still looks quite wintry. FIngers crossed for Sunday/Monday!!
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kb36 wrote:
tim000 wrote:
sounds perfect . heading to mayrhofen on 19th . snow before we go followed by a week of cold days with blue skys would be nice . thanks for all the forecasts on here . quite addictive viewing


Where are you seeing that, i am in mayrhofen the same week and any forecasts i see don't seem to feature much blue-sky. I don't pretend to be able to understand models etc on here though


sorry , was just wishful thinking . but the post above mine does suggest it calming down from mid month . but as long i can see where im going that will do .
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tim000 wrote:
kb36 wrote:
tim000 wrote:
sounds perfect . heading to mayrhofen on 19th . snow before we go followed by a week of cold days with blue skys would be nice . thanks for all the forecasts on here . quite addictive viewing


Where are you seeing that, i am in mayrhofen the same week and any forecasts i see don't seem to feature much blue-sky. I don't pretend to be able to understand models etc on here though


sorry , was just wishful thinking . but the post above mine does suggest it calming down from mid month . but as long i can see where im going that will do .


i know is not the most reliable place to get a forecast but the BBC weather site agrees .
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2771725
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Whistler, Canada, confirms its snowiest December for a quarter-century.

Almost 400cm.

The country did not shutdown or send in the military.

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Whitegold wrote:
Whistler, Canada, confirms its snowiest...

The country did not shutdown...


Same could not be said for the US Govt however.
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Question: with the GFS ensemble "wigglies" what does it tell us when the op run is the outlier?

Currently for Geneva there's a massive precipitation spike on the 12Z run for most of the variations but the op is relatively subdued?
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