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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead


facebook.com/ZellamseeKaprun


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sun 6-01-19 10:55; edited 1 time in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:
It’s not looking good Patscherkofel, Axamer Lizum, Nordkette and Mutteralm are all closed. Schlick 2000 is only running to the mid station and Stubai just has a couple of lifts open (but it will be grim up there). Any ideas?
Er...how about bottom half of the mountain at Schlick wink ? Pretty decent vertical IIRC...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Scarlet wrote:
It’s not looking good Sad Patscherkofel, Axamer Lizum, Nordkette and Mutteralm are all closed. Schlick 2000 is only running to the mid station and Stubai just has a couple of lifts open (but it will be grim up there). Any ideas?


Seefeld?
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ECM ups the ante for Austria...

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Mr.Egg wrote:


facebook.com/ZellamseeKaprun


That photo is two days old, the little shelter/info point is 99% buried now. Just a little of the apex showing.
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Any respite for the rest of the alps on the horizon yet? Off to les gets on the 26th and would like some nice snow.
so jealous about Austria right now (not the avalanche risk and closures though)
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mountainaddict wrote:
Quote:
It’s not looking good Patscherkofel, Axamer Lizum, Nordkette and Mutteralm are all closed. Schlick 2000 is only running to the mid station and Stubai just has a couple of lifts open (but it will be grim up there). Any ideas?
Er...how about bottom half of the mountain at Schlick wink ? Pretty decent vertical IIRC...


Nah, it's about 2/3rds of the way down, with basically one a cat track below it.

Seefeld, Glungezer and Bergeralm would be good choices for Scarlet (presuming they're open).

Just back from skiing here in Oberösterreich (gotta drive back to IBK this afternoon). Lots of lifts shut due to pretty crazy wind - strong enough even to scythe straight through the trees. 30+cm very dense windslab on top of yesterday's blower... Something to watch for and monitor in the next few days/weeks. Pistes are in fantastic condition though!

Heavy snow until 15 mins ago. Now the sun is out and I can see blue sky! Most roads here seem to be clear now too, in the local area at least.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Snow&skifan, funny that happened to us once at Geneva. We got a very good hotel and a flight later the following day. Loads disappeared, but it was close to New Year and I reckon they might have got to Paris by train but then no way they'd have got home much faster as Eurostar was like hens teeth and the fog was a UK issue so even getting to Charles De Gaulle would have made no difference. Good luck to all those stuck in Austria. I love geography, what a difference to mt GM weather updates.
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@Csb123, we managed to take off on time. Good luck!
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@clarky999, Glungezer I’m avoiding because I can’t risk drag lifts for a few weeks yet, and that kind of pressure is really painful. Never heard of Bergeralm, I’ll look it up Embarassed

Kuhtai was open apparently, though I didn’t find out till 10.30 and the Innsbruck road is closed so you have to drive the long way round via Oetz. We decided not to risk it as we need to be back in the city for 4pm ish, but might go up another day.

N has lessons booked at Patscherkofel tomorrow, so we’re hoping they get it open again.
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Scarlet wrote:
@clarky999, Glungezer I’m avoiding because I can’t risk drag lifts for a few weeks yet, and that kind of pressure is really painful. Never heard of Bergeralm, I’ll look it up Embarassed

Kuhtai was open apparently, though I didn’t find out till 10.30 and the Innsbruck road is closed so you have to drive the long way round via Oetz. We decided not to risk it as we need to be back in the city for 4pm ish, but might go up another day.

N has lessons booked at Patscherkofel tomorrow, so we’re hoping they get it open again.


Ah fair enough. Bergeralm = Steinach am Brenner, if that helps wink

Kühtai would presumably have been pretty miserable with the lack of trees anyway. Problem with Patsch is the stupid new gondola - the mountain gets sooooo much wind (right in Föhn Alley too), and the built it in a stupid place (at vast expense) so the lift is super susceptible to getting shut down. Friends who instruct there reckon it shuts at least once or twice a week... Good place for N's lessons otherwise, though!

According to the Avalanche Commission 382cm of snow up at Seegrube (1900m) on Nordkette now!
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Saalbach update

UPDATE ROAD CLOSURE
Saalbach still cannot be reached by road. The weather does not allow helicopter flights for controlled avalanche blasting. We ask you to refrain from speculation. As soon as we receive official information from the authorities, we'll inform you.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Bennyboy, we've just watched our plane land at the 4th attempt in Innsbruck. God knows where its passengers are as it went to Munich first to lighten it's load.

A 4 hour delay assuming we take off at about 3pm seems ok to me, given the free easyjet panini and coffee we were given.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Gute Nachrichten aus dem Pinzgau. Die Lawinensprengung war erfolgreich - danke an den Sprengmeister! - die Sperre der L 111 Glemmtaler Landesstraße wird in den nächsten 30 Minuten aufgehoben

https://twitter.com/landsalzburg/status/1081902755390939136?s=21
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Good for the Sprengmeister - what a hero!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Csb123, Shocked Shocked Shocked
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Csb123,
Quote:

we've just watched our plane land at the 4th attempt in Innsbruck. God knows where its passengers are as it went to Munich first to lighten it's load.

Interesting (pilot's ?) description here of INN landing/takeoff scenarios https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=2225257&highlight=INN#2225257
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Healthy snow depth at tauplitz
https://lawis.at/station/?intro=false&region=Steiermark&zoom=10&center=47.59875528481801%2C13.978729248046877&last_sid=102#102
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Right:
- Flying to INN a week today and picking up a hire car for 6.5 days' skiing.
- Had digs booked in the Dolomites - but just cancelled them...

So the Q is...where in Austria given the non-stop snow that is forecast?

Presume we'll need some trees...What about Skiwelt? Or Saalbach? Or Kitzbuhel?
Fancy somewhere new, never been to Saalbach and only done one day at Kitz (Pass Thurn) and one day at Soell...
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Its quiet week. I'd just go on a road trip and ski them all as you should get accommodation easily. So base yourself in one (Saalbach wouldn't seem to be a bad idea) and then travel as you need. Stay put if you like it.

I am waiting for my flight now and booked my room on the way to airport. Plenty of options wherever, from 30 euro BnB to 5 stars.
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@mountainaddict, come to Saalbach! PM me - I have an offer you can’t refuse
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Okay, so the GFS 12z says the snow is going to continue to fall in the eastern alps for all eternity. (Though the FL will rise a bit).
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47.48987854251013&lon=12.547169811320757
47.5N 12.5E is just east of St Johann in Tirol.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
The skiing in Austria is tricky at the moment. The snow is very deep and it needs to be pretty steep to be skiable otherwise you just stop. The avi risk is high and the viz poor so it has to be in the trees. Too low and it’s too heavy. Finding somewhere that meets these criteria isn’t easy. Luckily for us the larch woods in Fieberbrunn hit the sweet spot. Good hunting @mountainaddict,
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Next big snowfall is going to hit... Austria. Tuesday into Wednesday. Should back a bit west into parts of the French Alps, but the focus is going to be further east with many places seeing 50cm+ over the two days on top of what has already fallen.
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nozawaonsen wrote:


Next big snowfall is going to hit... Austria. Tuesday into Wednesday. Should back a bit west into parts of the French Alps, but the focus is going to be further east with many places seeing 50cm+ over the two days on top of what has already fallen.


How far into the French Alps do you think it will reach?
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I'm beginning to dread each new forecast. France continues to get screwed on the snow end of things. It gets worse every 6 hours.
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Ptspeak wrote:
I'm beginning to dread each new forecast. France continues to get screwed on the snow end of things. It gets worse every 6 hours.


I thought the latest Snowforecast update was actually slightly more optimistic (for 3V anyway.)
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Raven wrote:
Ptspeak wrote:
I'm beginning to dread each new forecast. France continues to get screwed on the snow end of things. It gets worse every 6 hours.


I thought the latest Snowforecast update was actually slightly more optimistic (for 3V anyway.)

Bergfex and WePowder downgraded totals for Val D'isere, but are more optimistic for 3V, at least according to totals on their iPhone apps. I should clarify my immediate interest is in Val D'isere, though I'll be at 3V as well in March.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Not much has changed, the storm of hope (arriving tues and wed) was first noted entering france last week with 20-30cm for the NW, it went up a little, and now it's back to same levels. Generally less drama if you follow the ECM forecasts (YR and Bergfex) instead of GFS (snow forecast). We were lucky to catch a few cm's of dandruff over the weekend as well. Beggars can't be choosers, but I think the midweek snowfall for France (and Pyrenees) is something to be positive about. Relative to Austria it may look rubbish, but even 20cm will make a big difference locally. What good is another 50-100cm on top of 3m anyway Very Happy

Here's WRF to thursday



Next weekend looks like being another drama, with heavier precipitation possible as the jet stream flattens out from a N/NE track (9th) to W/NW (14th).
Models not agreeing on just how far east it pushes, and also how mild it will get in the west. So once again it looks better further east.



And here's a look at Avoriaz ensembles, can see signs of more mobile westerly pattern....so more precipitation and a roller coaster snowline. Temps trending higher into mid month, but FL hopefully not getting much above 1500m.

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Ptspeak wrote:
I'm beginning to dread each new forecast. France continues to get screwed on the snow end of things. It gets worse every 6 hours.


I’m dreading them too. As off to Ischgl on Friday and I don’t want to ski in a white out for a week...
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Agree - have been so excited about going to Saalbach at the weekend. Now worried about a week long white out!
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Aint life a bummer.
Francophiles worried no snow to ski on (only ice)
Austrifolks worried so much snow will drown (or get washed away in avalanche)

Is Switzerland the Goldilocks place to be?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
PeterGee wrote:
Agree - have been so excited about going to Saalbach at the weekend. Now worried about a week long white out!


Am going to Saalbach at half term - so hope to get some sun on one of my two outings
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Quick update on the roads/snow chaos in Austria currently:

We drove almost the length if the country last night on the motorway, Oberösterreich to Innsbruck. Took 5 hours rather than the usual 3-4, but nothing too bad really. We were lucky with though, joining the back of a jam caused by a fallen tree (on motorway) just after the tree had been cleared.

Lots of snow in Innsbruck - around 20cm in the city last night, even after having been rained on. Now snowing again
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clarky999 wrote:
Quick update on the roads/snow chaos in Austria currently:

We drove almost the length if the country last night on the motorway, Oberösterreich to Innsbruck. Took 5 hours rather than the usual 3-4, but nothing too bad really. We were lucky with though, joining the back of a jam caused by a fallen tree (on motorway) just after the tree had been cleared.

Lots of snow in Innsbruck - around 20cm in the city last night, even after having been rained on. Now snowing again


Thanks - am driving Innsbruck to Ischgl on Friday but forecast for Thurs/Fri is reasonably calm so (assuming the flight can get in) I am reasonably confident now.
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@buchanan101, I think services generally were a bit overwhelmed on Saturday, but they seem to be on top of it now. Tractors and plows been out all morning clearing snow from the sides of the roads where it was piled up over the weekend. Roads looking pretty good now and I know at least some lifts that were closed yesterday have opened this morning.

Still coming down though, and the forecast for tomorrow is more snow, followed by more snow on Wednesday, and whaddaya know, more snow on Thursday Toofy Grin
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Scarlet wrote:
@buchanan101, I think services generally were a bit overwhelmed on Saturday, but they seem to be on top of it now. Tractors and plows been out all morning clearing snow from the sides of the roads where it was piled up over the weekend. Roads looking pretty good now and I know at least some lifts that were closed yesterday have opened this morning.

Still coming down though, and the forecast for tomorrow is more snow, followed by more snow on Wednesday, and whaddaya know, more snow on Thursday Toofy Grin


Are you talking about Ischgl? I'm hopeful that I may have some sun in Ischgl next Tuesday (according to Bergfex...)! Though they are now forecasting half a metre on Sunday...
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@buchanan101, Sorry, Innsbruck. But the road to Ischgl is a fairly straight, valley road after the motorway, so if you manage to land I think it will be fine.
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Scarlet wrote:
@buchanan101, Sorry, Innsbruck. But the road to Ischgl is a fairly straight, valley road after the motorway, so if you manage to land I think it will be fine.


Thanks - yes, done it before and it's mostly motorway (and some long tunnels). Read that occasionally it is cut off due to avalanche risk but Thursday looks fairly quiet after the deluge on Tues/Weds so I'm sure they'll be cleared by Friday lunchtime.
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Just seen this 8-10 day chart of the mean ECM and GFS anomalies, wonder if that deep low over Scandi / Russia is an imprint of the strat vortex lobe from the SSW.
US stuck under corresponding large area of high pressure.

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