yes like people really do wonder around with a variety of instruments & just the right instruments to play the tune in question.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
High pressure force field still in effect out to the end of the mid range. The Atlantic is completely cut off from the Alps on the EC. Sure there is a little more room for short wave energy in the East, but that's probably not going to break the pattern down.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The 0Z CMC looks more like the EC than the GFS. Looks good for the northern Alps. The Atlantic is probably cut off until at least day 10 on the CMC so western and southern alpine areas would have to wait. However, there is a hint of easterly flow pulling in some Mediterranean moisture in Italy.
The 06Z GFS goes the other way and breaks down the high pressure system, bringing a series of fronts to the Alps from the NW. Lots of disagreement beginning primarily around day 5 and extending thereafter.
I fear the in-between, compromise scenario which leaves most areas dry. Curious how this plays out. Just rooting for almost anything but dry.
Going to be interesting to see how 12z ECM sets out it’s stall. 12z GFS briefly looks like it tries to pull cold in from the east, but then gets distracted before opening the gates to the Atlantic... (which world be stormy and snowy if it came to pass, but quite a big if).
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Pistes round our way beginning to look a bit threadbare, this photo at 1550 meters altitude on a NW facing slope. Also pistes are very hard, there have been quite a few accidents over the last few days due to falls and collisions in the French NA. Not much likely-hood of snow in the next week, maybe some cloud on Mon/Tue.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Nice post noza...ignore the miserable sceptic poster, who cares if it was contrived it made a lot of people happy. Especially the awesteuck litle girl at the front. Marvellous.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
The EC is pretty dry, except for eastern Austria... at least until January 2. Thereafter it sends a blocked flow into the northern Alps with slightly below ave. temps. But the Atlantic is blocked off for the entire 10 day run. Italy and France are almost totally dry. To me it's a very believable run, but I hope it's wrong.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Dry out to day 10 on the GFS too. Not a good look. Can't get anything inside 240 hrs to stick. Force field in full effect.
I suspect the GFS will trend towards the EC and CMC in the coming days, maybe with a modest stau event for the northern Alps. Austria will probably end up being the place to be for skiing next week.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
ECM continues to suggest some solid cold weather coming up. -12C below average for the time of year.
Meanwhile snowfall continues to look like favouring Austria. Here it is on DWD.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Woo hoo
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
So the strat is hot, winds starting to reverse high up, but not officially an SSW until probably 1st Jan. Not much sign that this one will impact our weather, as the downwelling seems to stop around 300hpa. But anything or nothing could happen, over quite a wide spread of time....ie immediate (quick tropospheric response) or up to 3-4 weeks into Jan. Models took a long time to get a grip on the Feb 18 SSW too.
Large differences at just t+144 (next thurs)....ECM and UKMO vs the GFS gang. Austria should do very well either way, but for places further west, we need to see GFS correcting the low that way very soon. ICON 12z just out is a good start, with stronger northerly flow and a slight shift west.
Longer term, EC46 weekly model, and extended clusters both show a big change from high pressure to low pressure over UK area 11-18 days away. Then signs of blocking setting in over Greenland mid Jan with low pressure anomalies moving SE over europe. Obviously not reliable that far out, but best to have it onside nevertheless, here's the link for the next 6-7 weeks (46 days). And as Jelly says above, there are other signals for -NAO in early to mid Jan, with amplified MJO p7 and +AAM.
So short term good for the east, and week 2 looking good for more widespread change.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, Thanks for this banging Northern track and all the great (for my resort) weather forecasts.
Off to Austria tomorrow cannot wait. Keep up the good work, keep the faith ✊
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The 12z GFS shifted towards other guidance in terms of bringing precipitation and cooler air further west through Germany and Austria. It looks like there could be several bursts of precipitation for the northern Alps (particularly in Austria) in the Sun - Fri timeframe. Guidance does not yet agree on which impulses will be significant and how far west they will impact.
The downside is the shifting longwave structure further delays the wholesale pattern change which has been looming off beyond day 10 for nearly a week now. While this could benefit many of the ski areas in the northern Alps, the French and Italian resorts might have to wait even longer to start recovering from the recent dry, mild stretch.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The first front to hit the western Alps on the latest GFS is out beyond 324hrs. And it's a glancing blow. This is a brutal pattern for the southern and western Alps, particularly after some high elevation rains a few days ago. Obviously long-range guidance will change a lot run to run, but this clearly is not a spread-the-wealth snow pattern for the foreseeable future.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
LOL at the high pressure center still entrenched over France at the end of the run (240hr) on the Canadian model. Lots of head fakes signaling a pattern break down in the extended range, but day after day after day, the high pressure doesn't die.
This shows the precipitation anomalies. Very dry for much of western Europe. Snowier than average for much of Austria especially round Salzburgerland.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Winter of 2016-17 all over again. Except dec was dry then.
After all it is free
After all it is free
altaski8 wrote:
LOL at the high pressure center still entrenched over France at the end of the run (240hr) on the Canadian model. Lots of head fakes signaling a pattern break down in the extended range, but day after day after day, the high pressure doesn't die.
You're certainly not in Utah any more.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Ptspeak wrote:
You're certainly not in Utah any more.
Indeed. The Wasatch is a special place. But even they experience dry patterns on occasion.
Utah has some advantages: higher altitude skiing (generally), higher treeline, better tree spacing, in-bounds avalanche control, no maritime influence (dry snow), almost never rains, people don't cut you on the lift line
But it also has a few major disadvantages: very high cost (though not as crazy as Colorado) and you can't drive 100km to find a completely different climate (e.g., Austria to Italy or Föhn to Stau)
Parts of the Alps have definitely suffered some extended dry periods in recent years. I'm not familiar enough with the historical statistics to know how common this is. It reminds me a little bit of the situation in the California Sierra in recent years. It can certainly be frustrating.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Hi guys, we're in Gerlos and Bergfex is showing a fairly big dump on Sunday/Monday, we were planning on hot footing out of here on Tuesday to start our journey back to the uk, do I need to start perfecting my snowchain fitting skills?
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@notverygoodatskiing, I would have imagined you will be fine with winter tires.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
When you have to put snow chains on, it's often in terrible conditions. Dark, hand numbing cold, insufficient space, snow and ice in the wheel wells, and other people rushing you. You will be so glad you practiced putting them on when you finally have to. If you have them in your car it's a really good idea to be familiar with putting them on.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Sure. But if you are leaving on Tuesday the major roads should have been cleared if the snow ends on Monday. I‘ve lived in Austria for years and have never come close to using chains outside of blizzard conditions. Even in blizzard conditions unless it’s a steep slope you are trying to go up I‘ve been fine on winter tires. By all means practice.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
This is all a bit depressing for someone heading to France soon
Is there any chance that the high pressure will break up sooner than the models are showing at the moment? I guess anything is possible in the longer range. Of course going to Austria for my second week is also a possibility but a bit of a logistical pain. It would also be my luck that if I changed plans there would be a big dump in France
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Raven, since you are not I believe skiing until late January I would not get too concerned at this stage.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I should be clearer, if I was in a car I probabaly wouldn't be as concerned, I'm in a 3.5t motorhome that I've rented so have absolutely no experience of putting chains on it.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Raven, I'm flying out on Sunday, not sure that a warm sunny week is depressing???
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
altaski8 wrote:
Ptspeak wrote:
You're certainly not in Utah any more.
Indeed. The Wasatch is a special place. But even they experience dry patterns on occasion.
Utah has some advantages: higher altitude skiing (generally), higher treeline, better tree spacing, in-bounds avalanche control, no maritime influence (dry snow), almost never rains, people don't cut you on the lift line
But it also has a few major disadvantages: very high cost (though not as crazy as Colorado) and you can't drive 100km to find a completely different climate (e.g., Austria to Italy or Föhn to Stau)
Parts of the Alps have definitely suffered some extended dry periods in recent years. I'm not familiar enough with the historical statistics to know how common this is. It reminds me a little bit of the situation in the California Sierra in recent years. It can certainly be frustrating.
Yes. This will be my third year skiing in Europe. Two years ago in verbier and Zermatt it was less than ideal. Last year in the Arlberg it was great. This year in Val d'Isère I imagine by February it will be ok. I love the ski culture and terrain in the Alps, but the weather can be stressful. I must say though, I've skied Alta in 50 degree Fahrenheit temps in January so,as you say it's not perfect either. Thanks for the input.
UK ski forums are so different than North American ski forums. It is culturally fascinating. My uneducated conclusion is that if you live on a flat, chilly, rainy, island with basically no swimmable beaches, you should leave (it's messing with your mind). I can no longer recommend the USA, but much of southern Canada is fantastic. And also Costa Rica.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Ptspeak wrote:
Yes. This will be my third year skiing in Europe. Two years ago in verbier and Zermatt it was less than ideal. Last year in the Arlberg it was great. This year in Val d'Isère I imagine by February it will be ok. I love the ski culture and terrain in the Alps, but the weather can be stressful. I must say though, I've skied Alta in 50 degree Fahrenheit temps in January so,as you say it's not perfect either. Thanks for the input.
Weather wise and terrain wise, little cottonwood canyon (Alta, Snowbird) and to a slightly lesser extent (Brighton, Solitude) are the best I've ever encountered. But the secret is out. These areas are very crowded, especially when it snows, and they have become very expensive. You have to venture off-piste to fully enjoy skiing there. Fortunately vast areas are avalanche controlled. Hokkaido, Japan could be even better, though I have never been there.
Zermatt is beautiful, but way too dry. Many big resorts in the Alps are surprisingly dry for such high elevation locations. I have never been to Verbier.
@altaski8, veering far from the purpose of this thread, but if by ‘flat [...] island’ you refer to UK then I suggest you have a very limited knowledge of that islands geography.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
No swimmable beaches? You haven't been to the west coat have you. Glorious long sandy beaches. And zero chance of shark attack is an appealing bonus.
After all it is free
After all it is free
I just like to tease you guys. But you also nicely make my point. What you are used to colors your perception and appreciation for other places and things.
No the UK is not flat like the Netherlands but it is also not geologically or topographically as interesting as many other places in the world. And yes it has some beautiful coastlines. Not unlike Ireland and numerous other places. But that doesn't make it, comparatively, an ideal place for Ocean swimming. The US state of Oregon is, by itself, far more beautiful and geologically interesting than the entire UK. But that's actually an unfair comparison because Oregon is one of the most beautiful and varied US states.
But being honest, the UK on the whole (despite localized exceptions) is slightly below average. So it's not surprising that most people from there find every mainland alpine village stunningly beautiful and gleefully enjoy sun-baked, hardpacked artificial snow pistes. I envy you guys. Everything you encounter must seem so amazing.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
I'm mostly joking of course. I'm not really a fan of stereotypes and oversimplifications. But there's not much happening in this thread anyway. And most everyone has direct access to medium and long-range model charts these days.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
I have a feeling another Troll might be sniffing around. Let's not feed it please.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
I just like to tease you guys. But you also nicely make my point. What you are used to colors your perception and appreciation for other places and things.
