 Poster: A snowHead
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@südtirolistdeutsch, not sure why I said NW Europe...meant the NW alps, central europe. The main point was +NAO is likely when there are deep lows over Canada / Greenland, leading to flat / zonal / westerly conditions. All to do with the temperature gradient off the eastern US seaboard / warm north atlantic. These conditions fire up the jet stream and the NW alps (northern ridge and western ridge) get lot's of precipitation. Leads to huge dumps above 2000m, and mixed conditions below, snow - rain - snow. So yeah, not well explained, better to say +NAO good for NW alps at altitude.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| polo wrote: |
| @südtirolistdeutsch, not sure why I said NW Europe...meant the NW alps, central europe. The main point was +NAO is likely when there are deep lows over Canada / Greenland, leading to flat / zonal / westerly conditions. All to do with the temperature gradient off the eastern US seaboard / warm north atlantic. These conditions fire up the jet stream and the NW alps (northern ridge and western ridge) get lot's of precipitation. Leads to huge dumps above 2000m, and mixed conditions below, snow - rain - snow. So yeah, not well explained, better to say +NAO good for NW alps at altitude. |
Thanks for clarifying. What exactly leads to lots of snow even at low levels like we saw last weekend?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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NAO has been positive since 1st Dec....the negative period in Nov clearly favoured the southern alps. But no matter what the NAO is doing, anywhere in the alps can get snow or rain or dry conditions. I guess the micro detail is down to luck. Last Sun-Mon a ridge had formed in the right place (west France) to allow the winds to briefly turn N/NW, bringing cold and snow to low levels. Next week looks the same, flat jet stream into france, bringing a mix of ridges and troughs.
This year though I think the alps are benefitting from cooler temps from the east due to all the scandi blocking we've seen. So even under +NAO, snow can fall to low levels.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Matt Hugo on Twitter.
“Fascinating evolution from the overnight EC Monthly. It's not been great last wk or two, esp after week 2, but major shift to HLB looking ahead, potentially picking up the SSW signal. Possible N Hem precursorpattern (Scandy blocking/Aleutian Low) to perhaps a winter with 2 SSW's”
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@nozawaonsen, in weather for dummies language please buddy.
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@scotspikey, COLD (maybe)
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@scotspikey, HLB is high level blocking, this increases the chance of cold weather pouring down from the Arctic. SSWs increase likelihood of HLB. Two in one year would be very unusual.
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Cold and snowy in December and January would be exactly what the doctor ordered! Looks like Sunday will be another powder day...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Heavy snow in France above 2000m from tonight.
Rain below 2000m.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Another fine day with plenty of sunshine. See if anyone can spot the webcam shot?
The wind will pick up through the day as stormy weather approaches with a cold front chasing a warm front. The result is that the snow line will swing back and forth. Overnight it looks like being 1400-1600m in much of the French Alps falling below 1000m in the afternoon. But there is likely to be a lot of local difference.
Further east a lot colder, though less snowfall.
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You know it makes sense.
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SLF for Switzerland.
“Outlook through Monday, 17.12.2018
On Saturday night, precipitation is expected to set in from the west. In the early phase the snowfall level will ascend, in northern regions up to nearly 1500 m. On Sunday, snowfall over widespread areas is anticipated, presumably the heaviest in the western sector of the northern flank of the Alps, as well as in the Lower Valais. On Monday, intermittent snowfall is expected in northern regions. In southern regions it will turn increasingly sunny as a result of northerly winds.
The avalanche danger will increase widespread on Sunday as a consequence of the snowfall and westerly winds which in some places will be blowing at strong velocity. On Monday, no significant change in avalanche danger levels is anticipated.”
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Webcam...fort at la rosiere, tarantaise...
Mmmm snow
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Would someone please post a link to where to find the GFS wiggly line charts. Have been using http://greghilton.co.uk/snow_forecast/ but it seems to have stopped working mid-week. Thanks very much.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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It's looking like it's warming up massively for Austria for Christmas, would the clever people agree? (I hope not)
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I'm not sure what the clever people would say, but Christmas is 10 days away and therefore too far for any forecast to be accurate.
Over the next 5 days (i.e. within a fairly reliable timeframe) it looks like temperatures will slowly be inching up, but that's just from well below average to close to average.
For obvious reasons, you can't have below average temperatures all the time!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@notverygoodatskiing, it’s a bit hard to comment as you have failed to provide any basis for your statement. It helps at least if you can explain why you think that. Otherwise it’s all just a bit err... well...
As @denfinella suggests it’s too far out to tell. Several runs yesterday had Christmas colder than average, the 06z milder. So.
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Just the long range forecast indicating approx 10 degrees in resort, I know it's a gazillion miles away in weather talk but thought I'd ask the question.
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| notverygoodatskiing wrote: |
| Just the long range forecast indicating approx 10 degrees in resort, I know it's a gazillion miles away in weather talk but thought I'd ask the question. |
Which forecast are you looking at? Meteoexploration has 50cm of snow landing in Saalbach on the 22nd (not that I'd pay any attention to it as that's still a week away).
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| notverygoodatskiing wrote: |
| Just the long range forecast indicating approx 10 degrees in resort, I know it's a gazillion miles away in weather talk but thought I'd ask the question. |
Maybe it's time to pack a swimsuit for a Boxing Day dip in Zell lake! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@notverygoodatskiing, if you link to the forecast we can discuss it. If not then there is really not much to discuss.
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Well done the met office. Freezing rain is a difficult call. Spot on today. It’s going to cause a few problems this afternoon 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@notverygoodatskiing, first off have a look at the first post on this thread.
Secondly these might be worth a read:
Ten day icon based forecasts are bogus
Accuweather debuts 25 day forecasts
If you look at those sorts of forecasts beyond a few days out you will find they are constantly changing. What they “forecast” has little likelihood of being what the weather turns out to be on the day.
They take the ensemble methodology and then misuse use it to produce a product which suggests certainty when you almost certainly have uncertainty. Simple answers to complex problems. Except of course those simple answers turn out to be wrong and misleading. In preference to trying to explain the complexity, they present an easy, but eventually inaccurate solution. The appearance of simplicity, but in the end disingenuous. It might appear reassuring, but that very reassurance is deceptive. The problem remains complex.
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| notverygoodatskiing wrote: |
https://m.accuweather.com/en/at/zell-am-see/24829/weather-forecast/24829
Its changed again anyway. I was just wondering if anyone had spotted the same or anything interesting in the possible pipe lines. |
Interesting site, has forecasts with specific values for temperature well into March, do they have a crystal ball or something??
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You know it makes sense.
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I know it's well out in the future and it'll chop and change again, but I've also seen people on here getting a good idea on the future weather and being pretty bang on with it, more so than a lot of professional forecasters.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Any changes/news on this chart from the top of page 27 for the start of January?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It's all gobble-de-gook to me. I need someone who can translate the squigglies into layman's terms. I understand terms like "it will get colder and snow in the [insert name] region.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@notverygoodatskiing, it will either snow or not. There you go, quite accurate
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Meteoblue at least give a percentage of predictability of the forecast, beyond 5-6 days it drops right off, as you might expect.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Heavy snow in France above 2000m from tonight.
Rain below 2000m. |
Not that I want to give you a big head but looks like you are right, at least in the mountains around Grenoble. . Zero iso at 2000m and rain at around 1800. Had hoped it would stay lower. A lot of snow over 2000m though. Rain has stopped since 10am so doesn't look like we'll get any snow at mid altitudes.
From the 7 laux
| Quote: |
| After Austerlitz yesterday, it's plain dreary Waterloo this morning. The announced rain fell in abundance, beating down, and at very high altitude. The artificial snow holds up well but the rest of the pistes are hardly presentable. Today, it's better to stay under the duvet, wax your favorite skis, and take out the puzzle of 3500 pieces |
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sun 16-12-18 11:24; edited 1 time in total
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@Drammeister, Thanks. That is great.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| davidof wrote: |
Zero iso at 2000m and rain at around 1800. Had hoped it would stay lower. A lot of snow over 2000m though. Rain has stopped since 10am so doesn't look like we'll get any snow at mid altitudes.
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I guess Grenoble is that much further south. But in Valais in Switzerland the precipitation last night fell as snow not just in the mountains but all along the Rhône valley from Visp at 660m down to Martigny at 470m. Martigny is close to the French border and the precipitation was coming from that direction so it would have been falling as snow at fairly low levels in the northern French Alps as it came across.
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Snowed a little in Bourg doisans last night. This morning mostly slush on the roads up to Auris.
Intermittent snow showers at the moment.
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FAQ
