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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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@notverygoodatskiing, not as different as you may think. One is freezing level (snow forecast.com) one is snow line (bergfex). Snow line is often roughly 300m plus or minus below freezing level. So not much different. Should be dropping through the day.
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@nozawaonsen, Interesting stuff, I assumed (wrongly) that it would snow at the freezing level, but that was based purely on zero knowledge Laughing
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It's snowing down in Salzburg this morning.
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To the gurus.
Does it appear there is another system coming through Austria in a weeks time?
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Left Obertauern last night in heavy snow (heavy rain up to around 850m).

Some areas have seen up to 80cm fresh snow with more snow planned to come in the next few days.
https://www.bergfex.at/oesterreich/schneewerte/
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@sbooker, it looks a little unsettled from Saturday onwards, but less cold than today/tomorrow in Land Salzburg.
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notverygoodatskiing wrote:
@nozawaonsen, Interesting stuff, I assumed (wrongly) that it would snow at the freezing level, but that was based purely on zero knowledge Laughing


The snow has to melt (obviously) to turn in to rain. Luckily this takes a fair amount of energy (if you remember O level Physics) or we wouldn't have skiing at all. So takes time....
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
DB wrote:
Left Obertauern last night in heavy snow (heavy rain up to around 850m).

Some areas have seen up to 80cm fresh snow with more snow planned to come in the next few days.
https://www.bergfex.at/oesterreich/schneewerte/


I not so sure about some of those numbers quoted. I believe they are from the resorts who may shall we say use some artistic licence. For example Saalbach quoting new snow as 40cm where as Lech are quoting only 5cm more. Saalbach's own weather station is only showing 25mm of rain (roughly the same in cm of snow) in the last 24 hours.
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Looks like Switzerland won the overnight snow wars.

Zermatt and Andermatt got blasted with 30-50cm.

Ovronnaz, near Zermatt, got 50-80cm.

Lech, Austria, also did well, at 30-40cm.

Those stations look pretty good for a slide this week.
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Saalbach doing good.

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@buchanan101, As forecast it's snowing in the valley now, I can't see it getting the 17cms as forecast for the day but snow is snow and it looks pretty Laughing
I'm getting tempted to change my plans and stay somewhere higher now, I've become a snow addict Shocked
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Whitegold wrote:
Looks like Switzerland won the overnight snow wars.

Zermatt and Andermatt got blasted with 30-50cm.

Ovronnaz, near Zermatt, got 50-80cm.

Lech, Austria, also did well, at 30-40cm.

Those stations look pretty good for a slide this week.


This is the slf.ch map for 3 day snowfall



And here’s the link for avalanche risk, 1 day snowfall and snow depths. https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#avalanchedanger
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For a mixture of snow and weather a report (in German) of the snowfall between Schröcken and Warth https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/live-halber-meter-schnee-in-vorarlberg-201812103951058
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You know it makes sense.
Should Arlberg/ Ischgl/ Zermatt be in good shape for the weekend?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Not sure what’s open in Zermatt or the Arlberg this weekend but I can tell you that people are skiing from Attelas at 2700m right down to the village at 1500m in Verbier (the piste is not officially open but lots of people are skiing it and it will probably open officially this week. Expect Jumbo and Mont Fort to open next weekend taking the elevation up to 3300m. Hard to beat Verbier for early season skiing IMO. We’ll be there and skiing powder
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Redial wrote:
Should Arlberg/ Ischgl/ Zermatt be in good shape for the weekend?


Ischgl snowing at the moment - not a lot open, Avalanche level 4 - was in reasonable shape (though only 50% open) before, mainly with snow making. Most skiing is high up and west facing so it'll be fine. Valley runs open, but you only do those once a day.
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Redial wrote:
Should Arlberg/ Ischgl/ Zermatt be in good shape for the weekend?


Yes, Lech is looking very good.

Zermatt and Verbier also good.

Winter has arrived for some of the Alps.
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Stubai today
But closed

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Whitegold wrote:
Redial wrote:
Should Arlberg/ Ischgl/ Zermatt be in good shape for the weekend?


Yes, Lech is looking very good.

Zermatt and Verbier also good.

Winter has arrived for some of the Alps.


Hope you are right! Just booked Lech for this weekend!
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And we are heading out to Zermatt on Saturday for 5 days! Been avidly watching this thread for the last few weeks, watching every webcam available and trying not to get too excited. It’s the same every year - I try to avoid checking every day as it won’t change the conditions either way, but you just can’t help it can you? As always, all the efforts and expertise of Noza and the others in the know is appreciated by us all - perhaps even Whitegold is some perverse, masochistic manner! NehNeh
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Anyone know the outlook for Portes du Soleil in the coming 2 weeks ? Heading out on 28th
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melandnick wrote:
Anyone know the outlook for Portes du Soleil in the coming 2 weeks ? Heading out on 28th


I think you'd be better off asking in the Avoriaz/Champéry/Morzine/ etc group. There was 50cm of
fresh at 1800m in the last two days, according to an expat in chatel who takes it seriously enough to provide accurate reports and runs a website called chatelsnowreport or something.

There needs to be more snow before the 28th, but then we are talking 18 days away.
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As above, it’s good now, based on some pics a mate in Chatel posted, but looks like it’s drying up and warming up a bit approaching Xmas according to this http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png
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Temperatures across the alps look like staying below average for the time of year out until next weekend. It will be notably colder than average in the eastern Alps, with further snowfall to come. Brighter weather coming through from the west.

Next weekend looks like seeing more precipitation, but a fair amount of uncertainty about that at present.
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Need to head high for next week.

Ideally above 2000m.

More rain on the way.
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@Whitegold, it’s possible though I think it’s a bit early to have much confidence in what will happen next weekend.
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Snowing tonight at 1274 metres in Wengen.
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Quote:

I not so sure about some of those numbers quoted. I believe they are from the resorts who may shall we say use some artistic licence. For example Saalbach quoting new snow as 40cm where as Lech are quoting only 5cm more. Saalbach's own weather station is only showing 25mm of rain (roughly the same in cm of snow) in the last 24 hours.

I spent the day travelling to Saalbach via Munich. All the low-lying resorts through which we passed on the train looked very snowy - Kitzbuehel et al. No taxis waiting outside Zell am See station "because of the weather". The taxi journey up the Glemm valley from Zell am See up to Saalbach was an experience - snow thick on the road (scraping the underside of the taxi) and still coming down hard. Never cease to be amazed by winter tyres!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Snowing this morning in Innsbruck town.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:



Les Gets.
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nozawaonsen wrote:



Les Gets.


Great pic! Like looking through the keyhole to a winter wonderland...
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Whitegold wrote:
Need to head high for next week.

Ideally above 2000m.

More rain on the way.


Perhaps the rain you predict will help fill your “glass half empty”
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Nice one noz, it was beautiful up there today, ventured into the bowl....centre left in the pic (under the nauchet). Piste bashers and lifties clearing snow a good sign they might open this weekend....decision tomorrow apparently. Avoriaz open for ski and snowboard test fri-sun.

Haven't looked at the models for 3-4 days, maybe a little snow on thurday from west. Then some mixed signals for how warm it might get into monday....FL could be anywhere, but right now looking like 1700m on GFS. Other models are better such as GEM. But there are a lot of differences at t+144 (UKMO not good).

It was all looking very bland after that until the FV3 12z came out with a very nice run....cold lows around 19th dec, then high pressure towards greenland turning winds N/NE for xmas.
There's more uncertainty than usual right now, but let's see if the old GFS swings around to it's newer version. ECM ensembles, 30%-40% get that atlantic low to start reaching the alps mid next week.
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That Les Gets pic is from the webcam, its covered in Snow.

Based on Amara webcam a decent amount of snow fell last night, what is more encouraging is that although it loooked sunny today, it was obviously cold as by 4pm nothing had melted and you could see that they had the snow cannons switched on on Proclou corner, which is pretty low in teh resort. So they must be confident that that is not a waste.

I think that WC 17th is going to be very good. Hopefuly it won't all melt before I get there at Christmas Smile
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Good to see some non Austria content on this thread. I don't really understand all the codes as in polo's post above but what the heck happened to the Avoriaz forecast! Meteoblue was showing week long snow off and on yesterday morning and then by lunch completely dry all week. I'm going to have high blood pressure worrying about new year trip if this continues.
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Pedlad,

No point worrying about it yet, from what I can see from the webcams we have circa 40cm covering at resort level which they are bashing and snow cannoning which all helps to stop it from melting. So baring freak conditions like a foen and torrential rain or you know both, should mean that piste skiing at least will be okay.

However 2 years ago we got the mother of all Foen and last year it ended up being epic so you never can tell, place your bets Smile

I am hoping for similar to 3 years ago when it was piste skiing limited to avoriaz/linderets for christmas week and then snowmaggedon at New Years. I am there from 23rd-6th Smile

Let the snowdancing commence
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Does anyone know what conditions are like in Pas del Casa at moment and any snow forecast soon? My daughter heading out there on Saturday at weekend with the uni for a week
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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notverygoodatskiing wrote:
Looks like Snow-forecast have been the most accurate with freezing levels, it's still raining in Zell am See valley where as Bergfex had a freezing level of around 480m by now and Snow-forecast had it at 850m, interesting.


That is because they use different data sources.
Bergfex uses ZAMG.
Sonw-forecast uses GFS.
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boabski wrote:
Does anyone know what conditions are like in Pas del Casa at moment and any snow forecast soon? My daughter heading out there on Saturday at weekend with the uni for a week


Roughly 40% of the trails were open today.

But conditions are grim. White strips of concrete on brown hills with high temps.

Expect injuries.

Webcam here

Moderate snow in the next week.
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Ignore Whitegold - he/she has no local knowledge: just seems to spend his life googling ski conditions around the world and pretends to be the expert on conditions in all resorts...
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