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Next Season is going to be lot more Expensive!

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Close to Dollar / Euro parity as the euro has collapsed over the last few days. Will skiing for Euro skiers be a lot more expensive next winter? Unfortunately yes.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The current rates of inflation around the world are making everything more expensive, so we are all going to be paying more.

Fortunately, for most of us, the £ / Euro is still hovering around the same point as last year, so European skiing shouldn't be too much more.
Both have dropped against the dollar in recent months, along with a lot of other currencies, due more to the situation in Ukraine and the price of oil than improvement in the general US economy. Maybe less European visitors to North America next winter?
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Just booked ski holiday....

Price before any discount or voucher code was £7 cheaper than the exact same holiday in 2019/20 season Very Happy
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CHF-EUR currently inverted
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@HilbertSpace, Lift pass is likely to be a bit more though.
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Will Brits be able to afford to go on Winter Sports Holidays this season or any Holidays ??

Soaring Prices
Soaring Mortgages
Massive Debt Mountain (National & Personal)
No disposable income.

Oh Oh Brexit ... Very Happy

Price hikes in Ski Areas

https://www.krone.at/2776263


http://youtube.com/v/PEjFNpRDVkk

Strategist explains why the UK economy is 'one of the most vulnerable' in the world right now


http://youtube.com/v/9DBjoIaS_hg
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stanton wrote:
Will Brits be able to afford to go on Winter Sports Holidays this season or any Holidays ??


How's your parity going Nigel? You and Dougie must have cleaned up with your futures contracts.

I should think the Brits are more likely to go on holiday than the French. For the first time in a long time a number of our neighbours have not gone away this summer or gone shorter due to the prices. We had to change our destination and drop to 7 days due to costs, so I think cost of living is an issue for everyone. We've had to make quite a few changes to prioritize certain expenses and make savings elsewhere.
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That could make things interesting.

The current energy price increase and inflation is a worldwide problem, and no Country will be immune, particularly European.

The Holiday providers will probably be hoping to increase their prices to compensate for inflation.
But, if the above is an example of what might happen over the next 12 months or so (i.e everybody taking less, or shorter holidays), then it could lead to a surplus of accommodation over some periods.

The pandemic reduced the amount of accommodation available, but nobody really knows the true scale.
If everybody reduced their holidays by, say an average of 10%, could this mean there might be some late bargain deals to be had?
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brianatab wrote:

If everybody reduced their holidays by, say an average of 10%, could this mean there might be some late bargain deals to be had?


if you don't mind taking the risk - after all with home budgets under pressure holidays are a sacrifice to make. I suspect the Brits are keener on getting away for a week or two than the French and will probably try and keep their holidays.
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To me the greater costs are amplified by greater risk of poor conditions following last season’s poor off piste and the alarmingly hot alpine summer. I’m certainly less inclined to put a
lot of money up front for flights and accommodation.
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@On the rocks, Not sure where you're referring to but we had some great off-piste conditions last season, and the summer here is no hotter overall than the last few years. Sure, there have been some scorching days when it's touched 30C or so here (at 1300m)but more typically it's been mid 20s, yesterday and today only just nudging over 20C.

So I see no reason to be so pessimistic about next season's skiing and I doubt that it's a feeling universally shared by Brit skiers.
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3 years old video ...I guess things are a lot lot worse in the UK now.

Has Boris levelled up yet , when is he starting ? Shocked


http://youtube.com/v/vhTVVXrn_AA

I will throw this one in here to for the Englisch Islanders

Brexit. Only the UK would give up their ‘passport privilege’


http://youtube.com/v/fGtyBSUUgu0
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How's that prediction of euro-gbp parity looking from the seat of your taxi cab @Stanton?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
ansta1 wrote:
How's that prediction of euro-gbp parity looking from the seat of your taxi cab @Stanton?


Have to say he got that parity prediction right. € parity with US$ and CHF Laughing
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DJL wrote:
ansta1 wrote:
How's that prediction of euro-gbp parity looking from the seat of your taxi cab @Stanton?


Have to say he got that parity prediction right. € parity with US$ and CHF Laughing


Right about parity, wrong about the currencies involved! Laughing Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Since my local pub has started charging £7.50 (€8.89) a pint, prices on the continent seem pretty cheap by comparison.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I don’t think that ski holidays will be more expensive next year but I do think that various categories of ski holiday will cease to be cheap. One type that’ll disappear is the cheap catered chalet, which will return to the pre-millennial category of High-end Luxury. What will happen to the very low-end pack-‘em-in-like-sardines holiday or the next tier up is harder to say. I suspect it’ll depend on a fairly complex combination of circumstances that’s not directly related to exchange rates.

For me, one big risk factor in the mind of consumers is whether the airlines and airports will get their act together for next winter. Or not. If travel disruption continues then the purchasing bias may move away from packages with flights towards DIY and driving across the Channel. If this was to happen, then early bulk buying of accommodation by the TOs might be reduced leaving a lot of accommodation available at lower prices as time goes on. But it could see a hike in cross-Channel transfer prices. But this is only one scenario. Moreover, mainland European consumers will be outside this flight vs tunnel/ferry landscape anyway, and perhaps have far more effect on pricing and availability given their preferences and circumstances.

An entirely different scenario is one where climate change means winter conditions become so unpredictable that no one wants to book holiday accommodation (and for UK residents, holiday travel) until the last minute. This would drive ski holidays into the aegis of those who can take holiday flexibly: which might push it substantially out of the reach of the average family with school age children. And anything that reduces consumer numbers is going to have a negative effect on ski domain noperators if this decreases revenues.

In any event, I don’t think that currency exchange rates are the prime determinant of next season’s overall ski holiday cost for UK consumers.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 7-08-22 19:41; edited 4 times in total
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@LaForet, I agree with you on that. I'm not booking our Sept/Oct holiday until I know the airlines are running as normal.
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HilbertSpace wrote:
Since my local pub has started charging £7.50 (€8.89) a pint, prices on the continent seem pretty cheap by comparison.


Christ, where the hell do you live! Knightbridge?
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Here in Serre Chevalier the crazy two weeks of August are as busy as ever, which always begs the question why do they all holiday like this lemming style, as it's not just parents with school-age kids.

A couple of observations though, prices in a few restaurants have gone up substantially, but a couple of those are new kids on the block and whilst they're booked to the seams now come the end of August will be different and those in the know will be more selective.

Also the demographic of French families here in the Summer is more at the bottom end of the scale compared to maybe those holidaying on the Med, and most either picnic or go back to their apartments where they still seem to be able to get three generations of a family into one tiny apartment Laughing

Back in July resort traffic was well down, and that was put down to Frenchies finally being able to travel further afield rather than a staycation, maybe more of the top-end demographic?

All I know it's crazy busy and I bumped into friends who run a hotel in La Grave and they confirmed the same over their way, worse for them as like in the UK they're short-staffed by two.

Macron has actually done some good with regard to EDF*, forcing them to hold prices, and that's one reason why inflation in France is down compared to rest of Europe, according to the Telegraph, and believe me they do not heap praise on Macron at all Laughing

Also heard that with the current drought etc many resorts will be unable to make snow this year as their reservoirs are empty, but I've been unable to substantiate that claim, OH has emailed our contacts here, but doubt she'll get an answer and here in Serre the rivers are still flowing, all be it at lesser levels but further up the valley as the glaciers are melting like crazy the torrents are pouring down.

But even here as I was out yesterday traversing across the pistes and under the lifts on a bike* the two big reservoirs are very empty.

*best place to see marmots as not too many tourists go walking up there, that said as I came back down one of the bike park trails they were everywhere resulting in one lost dog for a nerve-wracking 20mins Laughing






*https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/09/edf-sues-french-government-84bn-macron-forces-sell-energy-loss/
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So the French Govt owns 84% of the Company, currently in process of buying back remaining shares.

Govt. instructs Company it owns to keep prices lower for it's citizens to help with cost of living crisis. (can see logic in that)

This results in reduced profits, so Govt. owned Company then sues Govt for losses as a result of Govt policy?
Can anyone see the logic in that?

I can see that the reduced profits might have an effect on the price of shares, so it costs less to buy back, but other than that?


I suppose the result will be Govt pays compensation to Company, who then pay it back in dividends to Govt?

Only the Lawyers get rich?
Or will directors get a bigger bonus, based on profits?
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@brianatab, Not sure, but taxes will have to go up to compensate. The voracious French state must be fed one way or another.
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Instructing the Govt owned Company to keep prices down is not dissimilar to Sunak's cost of living payments to families via electricity suppliers. Both will cost money and have to be repaid in some increased tax for or another. (despite truss' recent promises)
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The 'voracious French state' has managed to make France self-sufficient in food production. Compared to our free market which means we're importing 40% of our food, at a steadily-increasing cost. So there are some upsides.

Most of our railways are actually government-owned. Just not the UK government (albeit there is some UK back-door nationalisation, but we can't call it that, it seems). It's an odd paradox that advocates of a free market are happy with such a situation. It shows just how far UK citizens have been brainwashed over the last 30 years that they believe that any state ownership or state investment is intrinsically bad, always.

But it has its upsides, particularly in terms of not having to pay inflated business executive wages, and not having to slice a major proportion of any profits off to pay shareholders (often not even in the UK). Plus having a long-term investment view, rather than just the next quarter's profits. Which isn't to say that nationalisation is always right, any more than outsourcing is always right or pure commercial services are, just that we're shooting ourselves in the foot sometimes by refusing ever to countenance any state-based ownership, or a state role, especially in strategic areas like public transport, pre-school childcare, affordable housing and energy supply.
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LaForet wrote:
The 'voracious French state' has managed to make France self-sufficient in food production. Compared to our free market which means we're importing 40% of our food, at a steadily-increasing cost. So there are some upsides.


France has twice the land area of the UK and generally a better climate for agriculture. Not sure what you can grow in Scotland? Turnips?

As for EDF, they are forced to sell the electricity they produce at a loss to their competitors, this is their main complaint. The sale of electricity at below cost is factor of EU competition rules in order to introduce a pseudo competitive market for domestic electricity. The issue is that there are not enough electricity producers in France to create any kind of real competition. There is no reason the market cannot be competitive but not where EDF is the principal generator.

The price of energy reflects the problems with generation currently and is a signal to consumers to economize as much as possible. Having politicians interfere in markets is generally a bad thing. There maybe needs to be some kind of modifier or minimum amount of energy per head sold at a "living price" but there are currently far too many people wasting energy.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Wed 10-08-22 14:49; edited 1 time in total
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Plus they have freedom of movement, so no shortage of fruit pickers and the like there.
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@davidof, If you exclude the fairly high % of the UK that is not suitable for agriculture*, then France has a much larger advantage of area. (3:1)

* Most of Wales, most of Scotland north of the Central belt, NW England, Moorland, Pennines (and other rugged areas).
Reasons range from terrain, too wet, or not enough sunshine.
Some of these areas are suitable for cattle, but the vast majority only for sheep, and then only the very hardiest breeds.

Actually, it's amazing how much we can produce from only 6m hectares. Largest problem is good quality arable land being sold off for development. (18% in last 70 years)
(and the annoying fact that it has to be left uncultivated for years before any developement actually starts.) rolling eyes
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Another interesting article from Telegraph

British EDF customers pay twice as much as French for energy.

Macron's price cap on state-owned supplier shields households from soaring costs.

EDF energy customers in Britain are paying almost two-and-a-half times as much as their counterparts in France after Emmanuel Macron imposed strict caps on price rises.

EDF customers in Britain have had their bills capped at £1,971 by energy regulator Ofgem, while French customers on regulated tariffs face bills of around €950 (£803).
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Weathercam wrote:
Another interesting article from Telegraph

British EDF customers pay twice as much as French for energy.

Macron's price cap on state-owned supplier shields households from soaring costs.

EDF energy customers in Britain are paying almost two-and-a-half times as much as their counterparts in France after Emmanuel Macron imposed strict caps on price rises.

EDF customers in Britain have had their bills capped at £1,971 by energy regulator Ofgem, while French customers on regulated tariffs face bills of around €950 (£803).


Forgetting of course (at the pyre of good journalism) that EDF France has a lot of nuclear in the mix but in the UK lot's of gas ....
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stevew wrote:
.. Forgetting of course (at the pyre of good journalism) that EDF France has a lot of nuclear in the mix but in the UK lot's of gas ....
5% of gas, from what I recall.
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philwig wrote:
stevew wrote:
.. Forgetting of course (at the pyre of good journalism) that EDF France has a lot of nuclear in the mix but in the UK lot's of gas ....
5% of gas, from what I recall.


UK or France?
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That France has more usable agricultural land doesn’t invalidate their success in self-sufficiency. My point is that Brits love to bash the French for high taxes but there’s an upside that no amount of ‘whatabout-ery’ can divert from. Frankly, I’d happily pay higher taxes if we could cut our agricultural imports to ‘just’ 25%, see young people have some chance of getting their own home, see elderly people not have to live in isolated poverty, see youngsters get further education skills suited to the 21st century without a £60K debt, get cancer patients treated earlier than 18 months from diagnosis, see investments in infrastructure other than HS2 and Crossrail, see us able to cope with climate change and global heating, make up the 20,000 reduction in police officers, or the 2,500 reduction in GPs (when we were promised 6,000 more), and the rest. This won’t come through tax cuts. Not ever. But that’s all that’s on offer from the current crop of dinosaur ideologues in the Tory Elite - it won’t work, and our children and grandchildren are the ones who will pay the price.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sat 13-08-22 12:53; edited 2 times in total
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@LaForet, you'd need to cut the UK population to around 40 million to be self sufficient in food, 15 million without high intensity farming.
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LaForet wrote:

In any event, I don’t think that currency exchange rates are the prime determinant of next season’s overall ski holiday cost for UK consumers.


I disagree. We were considering a trip to Colorado but the strength of the dollar has more or less scuppered that. Accommodation and car rental prices are eye watering. I know that it's not all down to Fex rates but they are certainly not helping Sad .
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Quote:
In any event, I don’t think that currency exchange rates are the prime determinant of next season’s overall ski holiday cost for UK consumers.
I agree. Massive energy price increases and other UK economic challenges are likely to dwarf any currency variation issues.

You can do that calculation easily enough. You'd have to be spending a large amount on holidays for the GDP/USD difference to be the main factor.
If you're spending that amount, then you'd likely already be in USD.
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davidof wrote:
@LaForet, you'd need to cut the UK population to around 40 million to be self sufficient in food, 15 million without high intensity farming.
That's not what I was suggesting, was it?

What I was saying is that the French are doing well with what they've got and have achieved food self-sufficiency. We could do far, far better than importing 40% of our food, and we should. But the Tories don't give a toss. So after all that EU-bashing and Taking Back Control and Britannia Unchained claptrap, we're still paying a fortune for imported food we could grow more cheaply ourselves. But with no meaningful agricultural strategy, we'll continue to be at the mercy of our predominantly EU suppliers.

In fact, the government has failed to make up the loss of EU grants to UK farmers - there is a 40% shortfall with no sign of it being made up. The Brexit zealots made a promise to the UK farming community when they said "Don't worry, you won't lose out." except they have, massively. The main agricultural promise the Tories came up with - to cover any shortfall in EU grants - they broke. Because they're not really interested in doing anything, especially if it means spending money.
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@LaForet, Where do you get your 40% cut from. A Google search doesn't throw anything like that. Did find this, which suggests overall payments will remain the same, but with progressive targeting away from the pound per hectare approach of the EU. This, of course, played into the hands of the mega farmers like Dyson not the struggling hill farmers.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9431/
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Not in CH. Pint in a mountain restaurant with million dollar views for a fiver Cool
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chocksaway wrote:
@LaForet, Where do you get your 40% cut from. A Google search doesn't throw anything like that. Did find this, which suggests overall payments will remain the same, but with progressive targeting away from the pound per hectare approach of the EU. This, of course, played into the hands of the mega farmers like Dyson not the struggling hill farmers.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9431/


The NFU Chairman. Now yes, he’s going to be biased but his overall point is that while the Government publishes selective statistics to show all is fine and dandy, that’s not the actual situation across the farmers he represents. Accusing the Government of the usual politicians trick of moving the goalposts - using Brexit as an excuse to move to a different payment model that will hit farmers on average to the tune of 40% less. Perhaps he’s exaggerating but I believe him if he’s saying they will lose out.
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@BobinCH Have to agree with you: Even mountain prices here in CH are generally looking competitive with back home, certainly against somewhere like central Brighton. Perhaps the Valais will become the new Costa del Sol, with Brits wintering here because it’s cheaper …..


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Sun 14-08-22 8:44; edited 1 time in total
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