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Next Season is going to be lot more Expensive!

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Zorrac, right now its UK heading down......that is all that matters on the markets..

Expect more volattilty on BoJo appointments....

Btw..This is Help for coming season could save you quiite a few beers/wines or dinners, taxi rides on your ski vacations..
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@stanton, "...could save you on taxi rides on your ski vacations.. "

Stop Press -- Nigel is offering Snowheads discounted Taxi rides for the upcoming Ski season !! Wink
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Skivakanties zijn veel geld....
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Very true !

Tot ziens
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@stanton, You keep knocking the british economy, but ignore the problems in Europe.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/euro-zone-business-growth-stumbles-in-july-outlook-gloomy-pmi/ar-AAEMT2U?li=AA54rU

No doubt some of this is a result of the preparations for no deal brexit, but even allowing for that, Europe is heading downhill fast. It desperately needs to keep it's access to the uk markets, tarrif free.
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@stanton,

£ bouncing today , the silence is deafening .

Just a little prediction , Mays deal which wasn’t actually that bad will have some tweaks and turns into Boris’s deal , it’s passed followed by a snap election .

There may be a few bad days for the £ to follow but looks like 1.10 vs € still seems to be the low point .

I own £ and € assets so I have no axe to grind unlike @stanton, who talks his position persistently and only on days that it’s going his way
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
If a Deal passes (not No Deal) indeed Sterling will turn better for you..that has always been the case ...
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
No such thing as 'no deal'
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@Rob Mackley.

The pound is back where it was (relative to EUR) on Saturday. That's hardly a monumental shift. Over the last 90 days it has fallen 3% and it's a similar number over the last 180 days.

The simple matter of the fact is that before the EU referendum, £1 bought you over 1.30EUR and now it only buys you around 1.11EUR. Depends what your business is but for a net importing economy, overall, that's not a good thing and for people like me (skier who travels to Europe several times a year), it's also not good.

Kudos to you if your asset base forms a natural hedge. Is it 100% effective or is your exposure unbalanced?
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@Ryunis, today's rise was 1% . You ridicule this and compare it to a 3% drop over the previous 3, or even 6 months.
Seems to me to be an unfair comparison.

Fact is that the latest rate on transferwise is only 1% lower than I got for the last BB.
Let's see what the next 90 days brings.
Hope you are more prepared than
@stanton, to retract your comments
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
You think that because the pound made a 1% recovery against its calamitous last 3 year's that it makes everything better..?

What's been falsified that I should retract exactly?

Just keep reading the Daily Mail to reassure yourself. rolling eyes
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looks like there's another troll on the loose. Please don't feed it.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Ryunis wrote:
@Rob Mackley.



The simple matter of the fact is that before the EU referendum, £1 bought you over 1.30EUR


no it didnt
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Mr.Egg, exchange rate GBP to EUR June 22 2016 was 1.3018. Source Pound Sterling Live.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
The day before the Leave result £1 bought you CHF 1.55, the day after it bought you CHF 1.30 and currently £1 gets you CHF 1.23 - so while I am in no way a Stanton fan, even I'd have to agree that next season, in CH at least, is probably going to be more expensive.

For UK residents, of course, the really important exchange rate is the 'Trade-weighted £' This is calculated by the BoE every day and is calculated pro rata for the currencies of the nations with whom we trade, and the volume of trade with each. The day after the Leave vote, this was down 22% and at the moment it's around 11% down. If you calculate how much extra we've paid since the Leave vote using the trade-weighted £ it's about £120 billion. Which equates to about £4,444 per household - or slightly more than the £4200 per household predicted by the BoE and often dismissed as one of the Project Fear predictions that never came to materialise - except it did. That figure includes the brief and fairly small increase in export revenues due to the lower £. For manufacturers importing raw materials from abroad, any export boost lasted only as long as their stocks, which then had to be replenished at a higher cost.

The £4444/household usually elicits scepticism from zealots ("No way my outgoings have gone up £123/month!") but it's not the figure for the additional money paid out per household every month. About ¾ is paid by industry and some of that, obviously, just gets added to the price of exported goods. Only ¼ or so is directly paid out by households, making the average household Brexit Bill around £31/month extra. For comparison, on this basis, the net amount each UK household contributes to EU is about £12/month.


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Thu 25-07-19 8:58; edited 2 times in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Do none of you understand how to use the futures and options markets to hedge currency and interest rate exposure?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
(without quoting the internet like our resident idiot).
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I don't even understand the sentence
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Frank Spencer wrote:
Do none of you understand how to use the futures and options markets to hedge currency and interest rate exposure?
Of course I do. I do the euromillions every week. Very Happy
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Frank Spencer wrote:
Do none of you understand how to use the futures and options markets to hedge currency and interest rate exposure?


Most forex hedging is only available for businesses, surely? So not an option for the average ski holidaymaker? And for businesses, yes, but isn't there a limit to the hedge? i.e. if a currency is devalued over the longer term, then you're not going to get a quote outside a certain range?

Looking at the UBS forecasts for the CHF:GBP they're pitching it* at a low of USD $1.15 for No Deal and a high of $1.35 with a May-like Deal and $1.45 if we stay in the EU. So presumably, any fix I could get is going to be bounded by this sort of projection? I'm no expert - just interested.

[*https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/our-research/brexit/_jcr_content/mainpar/toplevelgrid_1442067264/col1/innergrid_1684723284/xcol1/teaser/linklist/link.1478706218.file/bGluay9wYXRoPS9jb250ZW50L2RhbS9hc3NldHMvd20vZ2xvYmFsL2Npby9kb2MvY2lvLXJlYWN0aW9uLWVuLTE0NDI0NDEucGRm/cio-reaction-en-1442441.pdf


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Fri 26-07-19 7:54; edited 1 time in total
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If you're worried about currency fluctuations it's quite easy to open an account with a commodity broker and buy an option or two, or whatever you need to mitigate any loss you may think is coming down the line (in Stanton's case, 3 years and counting zzz) for a relatively small cost. Or if you don't mind paying slightly above the odds, and think sterling is going to tank, buy a couple of quid of €/£ on City or IG Index. But if you're not bothered about paying a few quid extra for your skiing holiday, fair enough.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Frank Spencer. Hedging is the reserve of people who have the capital to spare and the knowledge to execute. Let's be realistic, your average punter is not going to do that.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Ryunis wrote:
Frank Spencer. Hedging is the reserve of people who have the capital to spare and the knowledge to execute. Let's be realistic, your average punter is not going to do that.
This. Not me!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Sell Sterling buy Euros /Swiss Franc

The market has increased the odds of a no deal Brexit and the Pound will remain under pressure.....
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Frank Spencer wrote:
Do none of you understand how to use the futures and options markets to hedge currency and interest rate exposure?
Bullshit.

It would be simpler and cheaper to simply pay in advance and buy half your anticipated currency ahead of time. What problem were you trying to solve, specifically, would have some effect on that.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
My answers were in response to La Foret's assertion that hedging is only available for businesses which isn't the case. And I think Ryunis underestimates the scope of 'the average punter'. Necessity is the mother of invention after all, so if you're bothered, you'll find a way. And Philwig, having been rejected by the diplomatic corps, is merely speculating in a different way.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
LaForet wrote:
The day before the Leave result £1 bought you CHF 1.55, the day after it bought you CHF 1.30 and currently £1 gets you CHF 1.23 - so while I am in no way a Stanton fan, even I'd have to agree that next season, in CH at least, is probably going to be more expensive.

For UK residents, of course, the really important exchange rate is the 'Trade-weighted £' This is calculated by the BoE every day and is calculated pro rata for the currencies of the nations with whom we trade, and the volume of trade with each. The day after the Leave vote, this was down 22% and at the moment it's around 11% down. If you calculate how much extra we've paid since the Leave vote using the trade-weighted £ it's about £120 billion. Which equates to about £4,444 per household - or slightly more than the £4200 per household predicted by the BoE and often dismissed as one of the Project Fear predictions that never came to materialise - except it did. That figure includes the brief and fairly small increase in export revenues due to the lower £. For manufacturers importing raw materials from abroad, any export boost lasted only as long as their stocks, which then had to be replenished at a higher cost.

The £4444/household usually elicits scepticism from zealots ("No way my outgoings have gone up £123/month!") but it's not the figure for the additional money paid out per household every month. About ¾ is paid by industry and some of that, obviously, just gets added to the price of exported goods. Only ¼ or so is directly paid out by households, making the average household Brexit Bill around £31/month extra. For comparison, on this basis, the net amount each UK household contributes to EU is about £12/month.


BUMP

Great post, sharp analysis and a startling set of facts...unfortunately Sad
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Frank Spencer wrote:
My answers were in response to La Foret's assertion that hedging is only available for businesses which ...
And Philwig, having been rejected by the diplomatic corps, is merely speculating in a different way.
No, that's incorrect. You can easily see precisely where I quoted you from, your response to La Foret's excellent post @08:13.

You suggested an approach to managing the risks of ski holiday cost.
I called you out and "merely" suggested a more efficient, cheaper and simpler way to do that. Your suggestion was intended to impress but it's wrong.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The UK used to offer strong stable government, international credibility and untethered access to the EU, and favourable linkages to other countries and markets e g. The commonwealth and the US in particular.

Brexit is banishing these planks of prosperity one by one. How long until a leading politician feels they can say vote again?

That's when the UK becomes investible again...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
You are entitled to your opinion Philwig. So tell me, where would you buy 'half your currency in advance' from?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Frank Spencer, Easiest and cheapest way to hedge for a holiday is to get a Revolut card and do it on their app.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@LaForet, quality post. Thank you
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Sadly BoJo looks like he's diving headlong into a "Hard" No-Deal-Brexit, which will certainly impact on Forex over the weeks leading up to 31st October.

With the EU leaders and negotiators getting no realistic "new" offers from Mr J. other than a "leave by any means, means a leave by no-deal", there is nothing new to negotiate.

QED, headlong into a No-Deal-Exit!

Boris and his dimwits forget that 48% of the voters (that's just short of 17 million UK citizens) can continue to impede any form of "Brexit" through the parliamentary/constitution if the outcome of a no-deal were to be detrimental to the UK.

QED, Sterling takes a serious beating!
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Sterling is a SELL

You can Thank UK PM Johnson..
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
stanton wrote:
Sterling is a SELL

You can Thank UK PM Johnson..


Rather the UK can thank 17.4 million cretins!!
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@skimastaaah, +1, albeit he is one of them.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@skimastaaah, @Markymark29, Before critisising half the uk adult popuation, you should try examining the reasons they felt the EU was not working for them, and they were disenfranchised enought to vote leave.

2 million is a big majority. Much more than any uk government has had in the last 50 years.

The fact that some people, who regard themselves as both intelectually and socially superior think of them as "cretins" was a major factor in the vote.

Disrespect the electorate at your peril! They are quite capable of electing Corbyn just to teach you a lesson. A lot of "remainers" would do so just to avoid any form of Brexit, regardless of any other consequences.

With a Corbyn government, we won't be discussing parity, we will be discussing £1.10 / Euro or worse. Just think what that will do to the price of your holidays and investments.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Mon 29-07-19 11:17; edited 3 times in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
The Rhetoric from the UK new PM is tanking Sterlng ....

The small recovery last week has been wiped out..

I think record low spot price this morning..have to doublecheck..

SELL
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Nigel -- 1.02 in December 2008

Can you find lower ?
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@brianatab, Brexit majority was 1.26 million (17.41 million to 16.15 million) …. so not quite as big a majority as you suggest. That's 51.9% to 48.1%, ….. pretty damn close. And I doubt the 17.4 million would have been best pleased with the way "Brexit" has been conducted over the past 3 years, leading us to have a maverick government with key players being given a second chance to really mess it up.

Stanton is right, next year will be much more expensive, not just because of Forex, I expect the EU 27 will put a tax on UK visitors just to recoup the £39 Billion that BoJo is keeping as a ransom. Now that would be fun to watch!

And that nice Mr Corbyn?...…… I doubt he could persuade the EU 27 to "Exit-Brexit" just to teach a disrespected electorate a consequential lesson. With BoJo there is also the Thatcher effect ….. "This BoJo is not for turning!".
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