 Poster: A snowHead
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Something for Austria in the next week?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
@Chadspurs40,
It's s coming from a very weak weather front that is passing through the northern Alps over the weekend 😉
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Is there any chance that front could intensify?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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😉
| Quote: |
| Is there any chance that front could intensify? |
It looks like it may have for Austria if the snow accumulation above is anything to go by
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18z much better, at least for Austria and eastern Switzerland. What a relief. Everything's going to be alright.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Any idea how much Saalbach might get out of that?
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Can someone please explain what is creating a poor start to the season in the alps. Is it high pressure or the jet stream ??
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| Chris Brookes wrote: |
| Can someone please explain what is creating a poor start to the season in the alps. Is it high pressure or the jet stream ?? |
Persistent blocking high pressure here Chris, temps are ok just no lows coming in.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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So what we need is a change in the jetstream to change the current pattern.
We need something like this.
The Jetstream coming over the English Channel or better France, and ridging the high down to the southwest. I doubt this chart scenario will happen (it is 384 hours away!), but this is what you want to look out for in the jets.
An alternate scenario is the jets over North Africa going further north and dumping moist Genoa lows on the Southern Alps. We don't know yet, but long term charts are focusing on the Genoa Lows scenario.
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EC is holding firm on some falls (5-10cm in the North Alps) on Christmas Day. I am not very confident about this
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Jellybeans1000, Not sure that light green suggests 5-10cms. Maybe 2 or 3? And like you say, it doesn't inspire much confidence, given that it's a broken strip of light ppn encroaching on an area of intense high pressure and it doesn't look like getting beyond the first line of mountains...
Still got time for things to change though, and plenty of uncertainty over tracks / intensities / etc.. 18z showed that already this evening.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Hoping it's snow for northern Alps, but right now most weather sites I'm checking are forecasting rain in Arlberg. Bah!
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| WellingtonBoot wrote: |
@Jellybeans1000, Not sure that light green suggests 5-10cms. Maybe 2 or 3? And like you say, it doesn't inspire much confidence, given that it's a broken strip of light ppn encroaching on an area of intense high pressure and it doesn't look like getting beyond the first line of mountains...
Still got time for things to change though, and plenty of uncertainty over tracks / intensities / etc.. 18z showed that already this evening. |
If it's inches of rain he may be right...?
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You know it makes sense.
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Well daylight hours start lengthening from here.
Hopefully the old adage is right, 'as the days get longer the cold gets stronger'. 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| downhillalltheway wrote: |
| I will be in Ischgl from Friday until 2nd Jan. Slopes will open over Christmas as it gets busier. All runs have good cannon coverage. Last year was exactly the same. Skiing will be absolutely fine. |
the PizValGronda lift is showing open but the slope 42 from it closed - that's supposed to be one of the best runs - is that likely to be covered by cannon/open in January?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Turin 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Winter solstice is at 1044 GMT today.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Hi weather Gods / Guru's (Yes flattery helps!).......as a total newbie to the site, with my first ever winter holiday being Meribel-Mottaret on the 15th of January I have been following this thread for weeks with both fear (of all the doom & gloom) and incredible interest.....it has taught me a lot! So thank you.
Whilst I can see that there is likely to be little hope of major snow between now and when we go, given that we will be on piste only for lessons etc (as only have approx. 20 hrs experience in snow dome), will the manufactured pistes they have currently last if no further snow? i.e. whats the likelihood of there being a really bad Foehn that thaws the lot? I assume up high not an issue?
With the forecast being so dire, I am now trying to allay my wife's fear that it will all melt and our holiday will be cancelled!!!!!
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@Drew Carey, anything beyond seven days is always very uncertain.
You might just pick up a trend beyond that, but it needs to be repeated to take seriously. Following just one run or even a handful in FI or a single snapshot and claiming this is indicative of anything is just pointless noise.
If it doesn't start coming into focus in the five to seven day period with cross model support it remains an unlikely outcome.
So what does that mean? It means that on the reliable timeframe the forecast is pretty much as it has been all month (ie a continuation of high pressure and dry conditions with occasional exceptions).
It also means that the forecast 25 days ahead is extremely unclear!
By that time we could well be in a completely different weather pattern. There could be cold and snow, there could be rain and wind. But just be rather wary of anyone he is claiming with any sort of confidence that they know!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Meteo Swiss: Some feeble weather systems will transit the Alps at the weekend, without bringing much needed snow to the ski resorts
(expectation is 2 to 3 cm)
> whats the likelihood of there being a really bad Foehn that thaws the lot? I assume up high not an issue?
Not that likely. It is man made snow below 1800/2000m which is very resilient.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 21-12-16 10:48; edited 1 time in total
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@nozawaonsen Cheers for the reply, that's my current feeling - anything can happen in the timeframe. Just lots of negativity around and hard not to get concerned. To be honest, providing pistes are ok, then I know we will have a blast - would be nice if everything had a sprinkle for aesthetics, but not a major concern.
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Three weeks to go, Drew - every chance of major weather events in your favour! In any case, Mottaret will be just fine I'm sure. You wont believe what they can do with snowmaking and a bit of natural - envy you your first trip - its the best!
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| Quote: |
Whilst I can see that there is likely to be little hope of major snow between now and when we go, given that we will be on piste only for lessons etc (as only have approx. 20 hrs experience in snow dome), will the manufactured pistes they have currently last if no further snow? i.e. whats the likelihood of there being a really bad Foehn that thaws the lot? I assume up high not an issue?
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1. We are going out on 14th and there is plenty of time for the whole picture to change in 3 weeks. It is highly likely that there will be snow in this timescale. Current forecasts can't say much about anything beyond December apart from "It's winter, it will be cold most of the time". There have been a few dry early seasons the last few years. In each case there has been good snow early to mid Jan.
2. Meribel is part of a huge area with very high parts. Beginner pistes will be maintained pretty much whatever the weather does. The current blocking high tends towards low temperatures on clear nights which helps making artificial snow. Any damage from a warm spell could be repaired.
Enjoy and don't stress!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Cheers everyone for the confidence boosting. Need to try and stop looking at webcams / forecast sites etc!!!! 
Easier said than done!
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Eastern Europe, Poland etc., due a cold snap the next few days.
Western Europe still struggling. This is Megeve, France, looking grim today:
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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is that top of Mony Joly where the Folie Deuce is ??
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Niseko, Japan, off to a good start.
Video from a few days ago, posted by Mike Pow on the Japan thread.
Superstition - Niseko Village, 17 December 2016 from 360niseko https://vimeo.com/196113793
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No joy from the 6z gfs for meribel..
Drew - I'm in mottaret for Christmas, and while there isn't much natural or fresh snow in the village, a quick chair up to 2400 sort of level will see you enjoying really nice conditions. Just enjoy it..
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You know it makes sense.
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I've been skiing in Austria since the second week in November and the pistes have been some of the best I've experienced with the massive investment in man made snow capabilities plus the natural top ups. I would love to have more real snow on the mountains but I guess I can't really complain. As long as there are cold nights most resorts can do wonders with the cannons.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Eastern Europe, Poland etc., due a cold snap the next few days.
Western Europe still struggling. This is Megeve, France, looking grim today:
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have some friends in Megeve this week, they are not happy campers to be honest, especially as last week French TV was still on the "best start for years to ski season" #fakenews.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Scarpa wrote: |
| I've been skiing in Austria since the second week in November and the pistes have been some of the best I've experienced with the massive investment in man made snow capabilities plus the natural top ups. I would love to have more real snow on the mountains but I guess I can't really complain. As long as there are cold nights most resorts can do wonders with the cannons. |
It is said that the Italians are the best at snow making with the Austrians a very very close second. (Even Obergurgl has loads of snow making capability, much of it mobile machines rather than fixed installations). I get the impression that some French resorts are struggling because they haven't made the same investment. Is this the case?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| Scarpa wrote: |
| I've been skiing in Austria since the second week in November and the pistes have been some of the best I've experienced with the massive investment in man made snow capabilities plus the natural top ups. I would love to have more real snow on the mountains but I guess I can't really complain. As long as there are cold nights most resorts can do wonders with the cannons. |
It is said that the Italians are the best at snow making with the Austrians a very very close second. (Even Obergurgl has loads of snow making capability, much of it mobile machines rather than fixed installations). I get the impression that some French resorts are struggling because they haven't made the same investment. Is this the case? |
Not sure how Italy could be up there. In my opinion they don't have anything like the capability of Austria. For me this is what really differentiates Austria from France and other countries. Huge investment in the infrastructure and an incredibly positive and welcoming approach to visitors given that Tourism is such a key element of their whole economy.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Drew Carey, we have an idea of what will happen in the next couple of weeks. It looks better for Southern Europe on predictions from EC and CFS. But IMHO, there is a similar chance of cooler winds to the North meaning more snow for the Northern Alps. The charts have been unseasonably inaccurate from past approx 5 days. But when we get into proper winter, if we ever do, the charts will become much more accurate to 10 days and further in some cases. Trends over 24 hours, even better a few days, are the best way to see confidence levels rise.
By the time you get there, some patterns will have changed in particular Negative NAO and AO around the 28th.
I will do an update into the long term in the next couple of days.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Wed 21-12-16 12:11; edited 2 times in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| downhillalltheway wrote: |
| buchanan101 wrote: |
| Scarpa wrote: |
| I've been skiing in Austria since the second week in November and the pistes have been some of the best I've experienced with the massive investment in man made snow capabilities plus the natural top ups. I would love to have more real snow on the mountains but I guess I can't really complain. As long as there are cold nights most resorts can do wonders with the cannons. |
It is said that the Italians are the best at snow making with the Austrians a very very close second. (Even Obergurgl has loads of snow making capability, much of it mobile machines rather than fixed installations). I get the impression that some French resorts are struggling because they haven't made the same investment. Is this the case? |
Not sure how Italy could be up there. In my opinion they don't have anything like the capability of Austria. For me this is what really differentiates Austria from France and other countries. Huge investment in the infrastructure and an incredibly positive and welcoming approach to visitors given that Tourism is such a key element of their whole economy. |
Read it about the Sella Ronda.
Agree about Austria - wouldn't go elsewhere. Austria leads on lifts as well - many resorts have mostly fast chairs and gondolas.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| Scarpa wrote: |
| I've been skiing in Austria since the second week in November and the pistes have been some of the best I've experienced with the massive investment in man made snow capabilities plus the natural top ups. I would love to have more real snow on the mountains but I guess I can't really complain. As long as there are cold nights most resorts can do wonders with the cannons. |
It is said that the Italians are the best at snow making with the Austrians a very very close second. (Even Obergurgl has loads of snow making capability, much of it mobile machines rather than fixed installations). I get the impression that some French resorts are struggling because they haven't made the same investment. Is this the case? |
Yep, the Italians do seem to have it sussed too, the 12 Dolomiti Superski areas in NE Italy currently have a total 855km of piste open, about 75% of the total available, almost entirely on artificial snow, as it hasn't snowed more than a dusting in the region for about a month.
They have invested heavily in the infrastructure even going so far as burying subterranean catchment reservoirs on the mountain.
http://www.impianticolfosco.com/it/referenze/impianti-di-innevamento.html
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 21-12-16 11:54; edited 1 time in total
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Japan is doing about average for this time of year.
North America is doing about above average for this time of year.
Europe is doing about below average for this time of year.
Glad I'm off to North America 
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| French resorts are struggling because they haven't made the same investment. Is this the case? |
because they haven't had to, apart from the last 3 years start of seasons. French resorts, which are generally higher than Austria albeit warmer. They have been ok and snowmaking has been viewed as something needed to repair high wear sections of pistes rather than snowmaking the whole resort. Over the last 30 years there has usually been real snow at resort level from the first week of December and for a lot of French resorts the second half of November has been skiable. At one time places like l'Alpe d'Huez, Val Thorens etc would open on October weekends with good conditions.
You also have to remember that snowmaking is extremely expensive. A 5km run, 20 meters wide (which is not much) with 40 cm of snow would cost around 50,000 euros to cover with man made snow. If it is just a temporary thing or to create some base on some resort runs then that might be acceptable but you have to wonder whether a lot of resorts are sustainable given that many guests don't want to ski on a narrow strip of man made snow (so less visitors - we can see that this Christmas) and the costs of man made snow. They certainly wouldn't want to pay increased ticket prices for the privilege.
The Rhone-Alpes region has a plan to invest 200 million euros in snowmaking but the government bank (the CDD - which set up the Compagnie des Alpes) has just baulked at a plan for Chamrousse saying that skiing is a bad investment and unsustainable in all but the highest French ski areas.
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| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
@Drew Carey, we have an idea of what will happen in the next couple of weeks. It looks better for Southern Europe on predictions from EC and CFS. But IMHO, there is a similar chance of cooler winds to the North meaning more snow for the Northern Alps. The charts have been unseasonably inaccurate from past approx 5 days. But when we get into proper winter, if we ever do, the charts will become much more accurate to 10 days and further in some cases. Trends over 24 hours, even better a few days, are the best way to see confidence levels rise.
By the time you get there, some patterns will have changed in particular Negative NAO and AO around the 28th. |
Cheers for the positivity.....does help. On a separate note, the amount I am learning from this tread (and wider reading) is superb. It's made me have a new found appreciation for the art of weather prediction!! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| davidof wrote: |
| buchanan101 wrote: |
| French resorts are struggling because they haven't made the same investment. Is this the case? |
because they haven't had to, apart from the last 3 years start of seasons. French resorts, which are generally higher than Austria albeit warmer. They have been ok and snowmaking has been viewed as something needed to repair high wear sections of pistes rather than snowmaking the whole resort. Over the last 30 years there has usually been real snow at resort level from the first week of December and for a lot of French resorts the second half of November has been skiable. At one time places like l'Alpe d'Huez, Val Thorens etc would open on October weekends with good conditions.
You also have to remember that snowmaking is extremely expensive. A 5km run, 20 meters wide (which is not much) with 40 cm of snow would cost around 50,000 euros to cover with man made snow. If it is just a temporary thing or to create some base on some resort runs then that might be acceptable but you have to wonder whether a lot of resorts are sustainable given that many guests don't want to ski on a narrow strip of man made snow (so less visitors - we can see that this Christmas) and the costs of man made snow. They certainly wouldn't want to pay increased ticket prices for the privilege.
The Rhone-Alpes region has a plan to invest 200 million euros in snowmaking but the government bank (the CDD - which set up the Compagnie des Alpes) has just baulked at a plan for Chamrousse saying that skiing is a bad investment and unsustainable in all but the highest French ski areas. |
Thanks for that - but by the French logic (height) Obergurgl and Ischgl wouldn't have many cannon as their heights are similar to France - almost all skiing between 2000m and 3000m - (and further east to boot). But they are now effectively snow sure resorts so guess where I am heading this year- investment gets visitors and ROI.
I believe that artificial snow makes an excellent base as well - am I correct - I guess that's why Obergurgl uses it - for length of season?
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@davidof, this is very interesting and I had no idea if the running cost of production. I wonder if there are any profitability stats for the Austrian resorts that have used it for some years?
Of course the snow making needs low temps which we have been lucky with this year (although rain forecast in some Austrian resorts this weekend).
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FAQ
