 Poster: A snowHead
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| stefoy4me wrote: |
lol - yes that was me
meteox going for what looks like a decent amount of snow starting early hours 19th |
yes it was - I think that was the earliest I saw. Just to give an idea of how far ahead these weather systems can be seen, I think you called snowmaggeden I as well with a similar timeframe.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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and just a reminder that with fresh snow and some strong easterly winds we're into increasing avalanche risk. Winds from E to S so expect loading on NE to W slopes, particularly above 2200/2400. Weathercam's point about the snow fall varying greatly and being hard to predict is worth noting as the forecast avalanche risk may be higher depending on the actual snowfall. More than 20 cm, especially with wind, could greatly increase the risk of slabs. When planning trips see whether what you see on the ground corresponds to the avalanche bulletin and adjust accordingly.
The "old powder" that I've seen comments on in some trip reports isn't old powder but often "new facets" and a potential weak layer when covered, these are principally on N sector slopes but can be found on all aspects, esp. at altitude.
credit: Facets on Sunday - Guides Espace Killy
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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So forgot to paste the Queyras webcam link 
And already forecast is weird as we're now getting some flocons whilst Abries looks dry!
http://www.queyras.com/hiver/station-queyras/webcams-meteo
And for those that may have never heard of St Veran it's the highest commune in France (Mairie / Church etc) and is a real chocolate box village
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GFS 06Z precipitation, Ischgl 25/12/16
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
I've now been in the vicinity of this low twice and have seen how conditions can differ drastically from one valley to another, as the low can stall over one mountain and let loose all it's precipitation, whilst elsewhere just gets a dribble!
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And of course we see it closer to home too. Think of how much wetter Borrowdale is compared to Penrith. Its upwards of 100% in 12 miles. The difference there is that deep snow is much more apparent than deep rain here 
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Hello, this is my first post so forgive me if I am asking a daft question. Looking at the various satellite pictures for the next few days I can see ppn falling across the northern alps but always seeming to skirt round the edge of the Grand Massif. Ski Club of GB seems to confirm my worries (we're heading for Samoens on Friday)saying that the resorts around GVA are going to miss out. Can someone explain why the area around Geneva seems to have an invisible forcefield around it according to rainfall forecasts on the likes of Meteox etc...or am I reading things wrongly?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@dswordsmith, I suspect you are mis-reading. The GdMass has a reputation for unreasonably excess precip, rather then less.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Could someone with more weather experience enlighten me here? I am hearing chatter about *possible* snow in the Northern Alps around Christmas but non of the weather services I use here in the US confirms.
From weathertoski.co.uk's latest: "Looking a bit further ahead and, after a mostly fine end to the week in all Alpine regions, the weather looks like breaking down from the west towards the weekend. This could bring some welcome snow to some northern and western parts of the Alps in time for Christmas, but there is still considerable uncertainty at this time – to be confirmed."
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@ArlbergMeister, weathertoski's summary pretty much, well, sums it up. Looks like a decent chance of some snow, if perhaps not major falls, during period 23rd-27th. Beyond that, we have to wait and see over the coming days.
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ECM 12h is very disappointing - Forget snow, what happened to the much colder weather they were predicting for this week? Now we have temperatures of around 10 degrees predicted for the alps and the return (or continuation) of high pressure over the alps.
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You know it makes sense.
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Doesn t mean it will be right Evan........not many places predicted today's snow.
Lots to play for still.........
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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A thin band of Western-Alps resorts from Zermatt (Sw) to Cervinia (It) to Val d'Isere (Fr) will get 20-70cm in the next 2 days.
But most of the Alps will miss out.
More melting due in the next week or so.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I'm interested in how this pans out for the Arlberg...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Gotta agree, ECM 12z is pretty poor given what they've been showing in recent days, particularly for the French Alps, assuming the snowfall shown for tonight is exaggerated, as you'd imagine it might be in a Retour de l'Est situation. With that said, at least it still shows a solid day's worth of light snow across the northern Alps, which would help out both cosmetically and, probably, more substantially in certain lucky places.
Fortunately, we are still far enough out that upgrades are very possible, and with a brisk westerly flow, new kinks can develop at the last minute, while small changes to the location of the high pressure or the track of the lows can change the story dramatically.
(Equally, we could end up with an entirely dry Christmas, but let's not worry about that...)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@ArlbergMeister, that looks like the finger of God touching the Arlberg! If only...
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@horizon is does indeed! Hey, the Arlberg has come through big before...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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As ever check out where the precipitation is actually falling vs forecast and the lottery that is snowfall prediction.
http://www.radareu.cz/
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Wellington boot, that is absolutely amazing. Well done, sir!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Been really enjoying the contributions on this thread and have learnt a lot.
Currently loving the snow in Courmayeur but somewhat apprehensive about Porte du Soleil on the 28th...
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@WellingtonBoot, where as I see Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina flying over Central and Northern Europe!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@mr_merc, I thank you.
@hammerite, I can see that, although Argentina seems to be getting brutally pulled apart (a terrible earthquake?).
I'm also seeing the devil in profile, set against a backdrop of fire and ice, which presumably means these maps can't be trusted. And Europe is doomed.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Looks more like Jimmy Hill to me.
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This morning's ECM and GFS both show high pressure rebuilding over Europe after a brief lull around Christmas. That said the ensemble spread shows there is at least a lot of uncertainty about this.
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You know it makes sense.
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@DB, +1 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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At this stage, uncertainty is the best we can wish for, @nozawaonsen. Meteo France looking dry and mostly sunny through into the new year.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| dswordsmith wrote: |
| Hello, this is my first post so forgive me if I am asking a daft question. Looking at the various satellite pictures for the next few days I can see ppn falling across the northern alps but always seeming to skirt round the edge of the Grand Massif. Ski Club of GB seems to confirm my worries (we're heading for Samoens on Friday)saying that the resorts around GVA are going to miss out. Can someone explain why the area around Geneva seems to have an invisible forcefield around it according to rainfall forecasts on the likes of Meteox etc...or am I reading things wrongly? |
To talk about the Grand Massif, it is not in a particularly high mountain range. The Tete des Lindars is 2560 m which is, I think, the high point of the ski area. If we take the current skiable snowline (without snowmaking) as 1900m on the N. side, 2300 m on the S. side (http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/bulletin-avalanches/chablais/OPP01) then there isn't a whole lot of vertical on natural snow at the moment.
The big influencers will be Mont Blanc - almost twice the height of the ski area, this will effectively block any Retour de l'Est (as is currently tracking across the south of the Alps) and Lake Geneva. Lake Geneva is said to add +4C to the local average temperatures (by the lake) and also adds a lot of moisture to the air. Storms tracking in from the Atlantic have the small barrier of the Jura to cross, then pick up more moisture over the lake before hitting the Chablais. Obviously the Portes du Soleil will get the most benefit with the Grand Massif in the shadow to some extent. Storms coming from the west will, however, track up the Arve valley and can dump "bigly" on the area although they tend to be warmer so the snowline can be higher. The area is heavily influenced by the foehn, but being at the North of the French alps the snowline is generally lower than in the Savoie or Isere.
As for snow, there is supposed to be a fairly big storm heading from the NW on Friday / Saturday which could bring 20 to 40 cm to the Grand Massif down to the bottom of the ski runs.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| snowheads68 wrote: |
Strong Föhn for E Alps Mon-Wed?
Should be short-lived. |
Not as bad as was predicted.
Strong winds yesterday closing the top lifts but only got to 3c.
Calm this morning after a heavy overnight frost.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Snowing in Vienna.
Here is GFS's current take on snowfall out to 27 December.
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@dswordsmith, also it looks like an artefact as the 144hr forecast doesn't miss out the Chablais at all...(and didn't yesterday either...)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@davidof, @under a new name where do you see that? Latest GFS and ECM show a total of 1cm for this area over the next 10 days.
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| langball wrote: |
| @davidof, @under a new name where do you see that? Latest GFS and ECM show a total of 1cm for this area over the next 10 days. |
Trying to be positive  Some of the French weather sites are forecasting snow for Saturday for the Northern Alps - maybe to encourage tourists not to cancel their hotels.
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yes meteox has it up........
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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yes meteox has it up........http://www.meteox.com/forecastloop.aspx?type=1
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Thank you Snowheads for taking my questions seriously. I'll take any gram of hope being offered! We were in Samoens last year for Xmas and conditions were okay...we made the best of the week and skied everyday on whatever manmade/natural cover was there...I am just hoping we can get on skis again this year as we've invited family who usually ski in Vermont to join us, hoping to show how lovely Europe is for skiing!
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FAQ
