 Poster: A snowHead
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No precipitation on the cards according to Chamonix meteo. And massive inversion will make for best snowmaking on the lowest slopes! 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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At least it's looking cold enough for snow showers over the tops, here in the U.K. next week.
Fingers crossed.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Some longer term thoughts from Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) who is worth a follow.
"Fascinating EC32 update which still signals blocking over & to the N or NW of the UK into Jan. Either on to something or swing-and -a-miss!"
"Personally this is a real test of the credibility of the EC Monthly now. If this doesnt happen then that will be a Dec and Jan failure..."
And a good gif from Liam Dutton showing how unreliable forecasts are for the Christmas period at present.
https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/809014926580793344
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damn, cant post this image
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sat 17-12-16 10:27; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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A niece and family in a camper van are heading down tomorrow. They are thinking Italy. What's best down there?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@pam w, Go West. At least from mid week.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| pam w wrote: |
| A niece and family in a camper van are heading down tomorrow. They are thinking Italy. What's best down there? |
The Adriatic?
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You know it makes sense.
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@nozawaonsen, have followed Hugo's work for some time now. Several other meterologists have noted climatology says that blocking occurs with a strong polar vortex. Following the climate signals, EC Monthly's move is quite predictable. This can only mean a better more snowy new year.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Add in the chance of a Negative NAO and a much better jetstream for Europe after Christmas, and it looks much better
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Looks like 10-20cm for Western Italy , Tuesday and Wednesday
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Jellybeans1000, a strong polar vortex tends to lead to less blocking and a positive AO and NAO.
A negative NAO can be good for colder weather, but can also block moisture from reaching the Alps. Depending where the high pressure sits.
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@Jellybeans1000, Yep, the GFS/ECM divergence continues, particularly for the northern Alps. I'm nervous to see which way this goes. ECM continues to churn out good runs delivering snow all over, including Austria and the northern Alps during Christmas. Seems like GFS has been trending away from that over the past day or two.
I'm happy it's that way round (ECM showing the scenario I want) rather than the other, but having seen these blocks push things back over and over before, I'm not terribly confident that it's all going to work out.
In the meantime, the 0z and 6z GFS have slightly amped up the intensity and westward reach of the Sunday night system from the North, so that's something to watch for most Austrian resorts.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Jellybeans1000, Potential for much more than 10-20cm in western Italy, but I guess you're being conservative. As has been said before, we won't know until it's on the ground, and even then....
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| Quote: |
@Jellybeans1000, a strong polar vortex tends to lead to less blocking and a positive AO and NAO.
A negative NAO can be good for colder weather, but can also block moisture from reaching the Alps. Depending where the high pressure sits.
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Yes. I guess the confusion might be coming from the fact that sometimes a strong but amplified jet contributes to strong northern blocking.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@Jellybeans1000, a strong polar vortex tends to lead to less blocking and a positive AO and NAO.
A negative NAO can be good for colder weather, but can also block moisture from reaching the Alps. Depending where the high pressure sits. |
Here's an opinion from a meteorologist from another forum about current conditions.
"With the vortex strengthening it only a matter of time before a blocking pattern setup and takes
hold in the Atlantic. And the west flow abates and low pressure builds over eastern europe,
as it always does. Strong vortex = blocking/and good snow over all europe.
Weak vortex suits the USA thats the bottom line."
Will answer better in the Australian morning
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| WellingtonBoot wrote: |
@Jellybeans1000, Yep, the GFS/ECM divergence continues, particularly for the northern Alps. I'm nervous to see which way this goes. ECM continues to churn out good runs delivering snow all over, including Austria and the northern Alps during Christmas. Seems like GFS has been trending away from that over the past day or two.
I'm happy it's that way round (ECM showing the scenario I want) rather than the other, but having seen these blocks push things back over and over before, I'm not terribly confident that it's all going to work out.
In the meantime, the 0z and 6z GFS have slightly amped up the intensity and westward reach of the Sunday night system from the North, so that's something to watch for most Austrian resorts. |
Which of the more useable engines uses ECM? Bergfex shows a small amount on Xmas day (is that ECM then - can't see beyond 9 days with Bergfex). Snowforecast(skiclub) must use the GFS as that shows the odd shower in 2 or 3 days time (for Ischgl).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Not sure who you are quoting, but the simple statement that a strong vortex equals blocking and good snow over all Europe is over simplistic for two reasons. One that a strong polar vortex does not equal blocking rather the opposite and blocking does not automatically lead to good snow conditions all over Europe, it being completely contingent on where the blocking sets up. A -NAO can lead to a very cold but parched northern Alps and very snowy southern Alps. +NAO tends to favour a milder more Atlantic flow which can lead to very heavy snow in the northern Alps (though at times stormy and mild) and dry conditions in the southern Alps.
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@buchanan101, anything as far out as Christmas Day is too unreliable at this stage to take seriously as the difference in outputs between GFS and ECM shows.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| WellingtonBoot wrote: |
| @Jellybeans1000, Potential for much more than 10-20cm in western Italy, but I guess you're being conservative. As has been said before, we won't know until it's on the ground, and even then.... |
I'd agree. At this stage I'd anticipate more like 30-50cms in the Aosta Valley for example. Though of course all the usual caveats apply.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @buchanan101, anything as far out as Christmas Day is too unreliable at this stage to take seriously as the difference in outputs between GFS and ECM shows. |
I know - just that someone said the two models/engines diverged so was trying to get the them in readable forms (i.e. Bergfex, snowforecast etc). If I have two different front ends i can "see" the two engines. I _think_ Bergfex and snowforecast (Skiclub) are different background engines
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@buchanan101, the vast majority use GFS certainly snowforecast.com.
Yr.no (Norwegian) uses ECM. http://om.yr.no/about/
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You know it makes sense.
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Trying to find some data on the NASA / GEOS model....seems relatively new and so probably doesn't have much of a track record built up?
It's definitely in the ECM camp for the 25th, fulfilling my confirmation bias search for something more positive than 6z GFS.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@buchanan101, the vast majority use GFS certainly snowforecast.com.
Yr.no (Norwegian) uses ECM. http://om.yr.no/about/ |
Thanks - snowforecast and bergfex have different forecasts, so it seems bergfex may not be using GFS - I seem to recall someone saying it may be a different model again (and is just Austrian based I believe)
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Poster: A snowHead
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@buchanan101, Bergfex uses ZAMG data. ZAMG is the Austrian meteorological service and is part of ECMWF.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @buchanan101, Bergfex uses ZAMG data. ZAMG is the Austrian meteorological service and is part of ECMWF. |
Thanks! - so I have two different accessible front ends for the two main engines.
Neither showing much at all for Ischgl for 9 days however; still the conditions look good on the webcams, and it's cold enough...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I'm off to Madonna next saturday - I've seen a few mentions of possible snow for western Italy - is Madonna too far east/north for this? The official website is forecasting sunny and dry for the next week.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Atomic_Mick, too far east.
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What I can't fathom is how Sestriere is forecast to have such a large dump on Tuesday and yet L2A, Alpe D'huez etc, just over the border, miss out.
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| mr_merc wrote: |
| What I can't fathom is how Sestriere is forecast to have such a large dump on Tuesday and yet L2A, Alpe D'huez etc, just over the border, miss out. |
Did you do geography at school?
here, maybe this will help?
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@davidof, that came across as very patronising
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| davidof wrote: |
| pam w wrote: |
| A niece and family in a camper van are heading down tomorrow. They are thinking Italy. What's best down there? |
The Adriatic? |
No, the Pacific! As in the Pacific NW!
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@davidof that's patronising, particularly as I had an A in Geography at A level. I'm not sure how not knowing the topography of sestriere and L2A etc. signposts that I didn't 'do geography'. I was wanting an answer from an expert. Shame.
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Sat 17-12-16 17:57; edited 1 time in total
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