 Poster: A snowHead
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18z GFS looks to have switched to colder around Christmas compared to previous runs
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| notnats wrote: |
| 18z GFS looks to have switched to colder around Christmas compared to previous runs |
I'm dreaming of a white Christmas lalalala....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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GFS and EC are starting to line up a bit more for a White Christmas...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Hmmmm. Neither looks particularly exciting this morning
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Now I'm getting a little bit excited.. 22nd, 24th and 25th for 3v look good.. given that I arrive on the 23rd, that seems like a good deal to me.. !!
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@Chadspurs40,
Are you sure about that?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I am checking Champoluc/Aosta progress and on Yr.no it is as dry as a desert - even snow in FI is no longer available as a hope ....
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For all the doom mongers and naysayers out there who still suggest that you can only mountainbike in the French Alps at the moment check this out.
https://www.facebook.com/FrenchMountains/videos/1820168874893924/
Happily we are booked for Val Cenis at half term when hopefully the whole mountain will be white but in any case that base on the upper looks way deeper than recent years mid season.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Of course I'm not sure... nobody is..! Just being positive.. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I know its FI!
I just choked hard on some christmas cake when I looked at the 06Z for the Eastern Alps - where f**k did that spike come from -
Not worried about the temps, just shocked as I've not seen more than a couple of CM's on any forecast/prediction for months.
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You know it makes sense.
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@AthersT, the relevant line colour is red and it is as flat as ir gets
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Not really. As flat as it gets would be, by definition, flat. That red line has some little bumps in.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@mooney058, Black on that version
Red is the average
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@mooney058, Red is just an average of the scenarios and by no means is the most likely scenario. I've had this conversation with Noza before and was corrected as I initially thought average =/= most likely.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| frozennose wrote: |
For all the doom mongers and naysayers out there who still suggest that you can only mountainbike in the French Alps at the moment check this out.
https://www.facebook.com/FrenchMountains/videos/1820168874893924/
Happily we are booked for Val Cenis at half term when hopefully the whole mountain will be white but in any case that base on the upper looks way deeper than recent years mid season. |
Yes, we already talked about Val Cenis on the previous page, do keep up at the back.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| moffatross wrote: |
| @davidof, that's a bizarre image of what feels like the longest green run in France after one of its most picturesque semi-blacks. I've skied/poled down that road a few times, one time when there was fresh avalanche debris semi-blocking the way at multiple points. Odd to see that there's not even a skinny base or frosting elsewhere. |
With a bit of luck they'll get a dusting of snow (some talk of 10-20cm) in the 20-25th period which will make the man made much more skiable and at least turn the mountains white. Apparently ADH spend more on snow making than they do on running the lifts.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Chadspurs40 wrote: |
| Not really. As flat as it gets would be, by definition, flat. That red line has some little bumps in. |
it looks veeeerrrrryyyyy flat on an iphone screen while on a move ... but I take your word for it and hope to see even more curves in the coming days.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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A month ago I was foolishly hoping for good offpiste at Christmas / New Year.
Now I just want a bit of white decoration. Just snow. Please.
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@AthersT, Yes, Noza is correct, it's not that simple. But @mooney058, if you still want to treat the mean as the most reliable indicator of the eventual outcome, you at least have to assess those stats correctly.
The nature of the mean in this instance is such that it will never provide big spikes, apart from in the very short term, where heavy snow is looking very likely. Apart from that, all the different 'perturbations' will have different amounts arriving at different times, so even if there are many spikes, as above, the mean will bump along near the bottom.
In order to derive the mean precipitation total then, you have to add up all those small totals from every reporting period - as you can see, there are four totals for each day. In that case, if you look at the period 25th - 28th, you will see that there are roughly 14 consecutive periods with approx. means of 1mm. That adds up to a mean total of 14mm of ppn, or 14cm snow (using the standard 10:1 rain to snow ratio and ignoring other factors such as whether it is cold enough in each run to snow, and the altitude at which you're measuring). Together with maybe another 10mm/cm across the rest of the run, I'd say that makes for a pretty decent mean ppn total of 25mm/cm. Much much better than a few days ago.
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| Quote: |
from Google Translate
With very partially open areas and a forecast of visitors down by almost 12% for the holidays, stations will count again on February, more optimistic, to ensure a bad season.
For the fourth consecutive winter the massifs begin these celebrations with a very low snow. Despite the emergency plans of the Regions, with already 50 million euros in Paca and 8 in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes in support of snow-making equipment, many areas will be closed or partially opened on Saturday, , The anticyclone favoring the inversion of temperatures and the redoubling at altitude.
The exception of the border massifs
In Sept-Laux (Isère), chairlifts for mountain bikers are set up, Megève (Haute-Savoie) opens its cabins for pedestrians, others try to ensure the minimum for children like Chamrousse who relocates The snow garden on the heights. "There is no snow below 1,800 m on the north side and you have to go up to 2,400 m on the south side to find them," says Daniel Goetz, at the Météo France snow study center.
A narrow strip of interior massifs escapes this medium deficit which impacts 90% of the Alps. One can ski and rather well in certain sectors, borders with Italy having benefited from the return of East at the end of November, such as Haute Maurienne (Savoie), Queyras and Briançonnais (Hautes-Alpes). The estate is open to 75% in Vars and 100% in Val Thorens, but in La Plagne, at 2000 m, the layer does not exceed 10 cm. The stations of high Tarentaise are doing well, but elsewhere it is very limited, even in Haute-Savoie. Chamonix has only a third of the snow-covered area. As for the Préalpes, from the Bauges to the Vercors, there is no snow at all. "We adapt," says Jean-Marc Silva, director of France Mountains. Seventy of our 110 adhering stations should open at least one track. "
With early falls in November, the season promised an excellent start. But a considerable thaw has come to re-green the slopes and to curb the ardor. According to G2A, stations have an average drop in bookings of 12% on a panel of some forty sites. Nearly one bed out of two will be empty according to the association of mayors of station (ANMSM). The schedule, placing Christmas and New Year's Day on Sunday, was already complicating the deal. Nothing is lost for the accommodation, the forecast over the season shows a rise of 1.3% to + 3.2% depending on the altitudes. "With strong progress for January, the winter and spring holidays" says Émilie Maisonnasse at G2A.
At 1,000 m, four Christmas without snow
This series of four winter beginnings with little or no snow at the reference station of the Col de Porte (1,328 m) in Chartreuse is historic, according to the snow studies center. Since the sixties, we have lost a month of snow in the season. "What is unprecedented is that we would have two years in a row without a fall in December," remarked Daniel Goetz who, in 57 years, counted only six Christmas without snow, of which more than half in the 21st century . Recurrence that risks keeping holidaymakers in this annoying habit of abandoning winter sports for the holidays.
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http://www.ledauphine.com/environnement/2016/12/15/un-noel-sous-le-signe-du-rechauffement
Note that Tignes, Val Thorens, Val d'Isere, Valfrejus, Val Cenis etc. offer good conditions, at least at high altitude. However they risk being totally rammed at Christmas week. Some talk of restricting ticket sales over this period (again).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@AthersT, things come and go in FI. If it's repeated it might mean something. Otherwise it's just chaff.
Generally cooler conditions over the next week. But despite the siren sounds of FI, no real signs of a break from the extended dry pattern.
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@nozawaonsen, I know that  hence the
| AthersT wrote: |
| I know its FI! |
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Upstate New York dumped 1 to 2 feet of snow in the past few days and broke snowfall records in several areas.
Oregon got hammered, too. And more snow coming to the central US belt over the weekend.
Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Fri 16-12-16 17:11; edited 1 time in total
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Just nice to see a snow symbol on metro France even though it's 9 days away!
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Low pressure on 19 December drives too far south on 12z GFS.
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You know it makes sense.
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| howiet wrote: |
| Just nice to see a snow symbol on metro France even though it's 9 days away! |
They've got one for Tuesday for the Pyrennees - the famous Mediterranean low we've mentioned
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A powerful anticyclone has settled in France for about three weeks now. In the mountains, this dry weather is accompanied by often very mild temperatures (at 3000 m altitude in the Alps, the thermometer rose to 6 ° C on 10 December). For this reason, the first and promising November snowfall disappeared completely at low and medium altitudes. Higher, their thickness has been reduced, first of all in the slopes oriented to the south.
In mid-December, the situation of snow cover is the same on all French mountain ranges: there is no snow below 1700 to 2000 m in shady slopes, below 1900 to 2400 M in the sunny slopes. Above, the thickness of snow increases gradually but is usually less than normal.
In the ski resorts, some cold periods, quite short, made it possible to artificially produce snow. In the Alps, the most notable was that which occurred from 5 to 8 December, during which the thermometer was lowered to -10.5 ° C in Bessans (Savoie) and Ristolas (Hautes-Alpes ).
The massif of Belledonne (Isère) on December 14, 2016. Its snow cover reflects that of all the French mountain massifs: no snow at low and medium altitude as well as higher in the southern slopes, snow generally a little low in altitude .
Northern Alps
The snow is absent at low and medium altitude, and up to quite high altitude in the sunny slopes. Higher, it is present but the snow is rather lower than normal, except near the Italian border where it is on the contrary surplus thanks to the abundant snowfall that occurred at altitude from 23 to 25 November.
The continuous snowfall begins north towards 1700 m in Haute-Savoie, between 1800 and 2000 m elsewhere. On a southerly slope, it is generally necessary to climb around 2000 m to 2200 m to find a ground covered by snow, 2400 or 2500 m in Isère.
At 2000 m, there is usually about 10 to 30 cm of snow, up to 40 cm in the Pre-Alps of Haute-Savoie and Haute-Maurienne.
At 2500 m, the thicknesses on the north slope are larger, generally 60 to 90 cm, up to 1.30 to 1.50 m in the massifs of Haute-Tarentaise and Haute-Maurienne. On the south side, they are less, usually 30 to 50 cm, 70 cm in the Haute-Tarentaise massif and 1.10 m in Haute-Maurienne.
Southern Alps
As in the Northern Alps, snow is absent at low and medium altitude, and up to quite high altitude in the sunny slopes. Higher up, the snowfall is rather lower than normal, except near the Italian border (thanks to the abundant snowfall from 23 to 25 November, as in the Northern Alps).
The continuous snowfall often begins between 1700 and 1900 m, around 2000 or 2100 m in the massifs of Dévoluy, Champsaur and Haut-Var / Haut-Verdon. As you go south, you have to go up to 2000 m in the massifs close to the Italian border, 2200 m in the other massifs to find an early snow cover.
At 2000 m, in the massifs close to the Italian border, there are 30 to 40 cm north, 0 to 20 cm in the other massifs.
At 2500 m, the thickness of the snow cover becomes important on the north slope, 90 cm at 1.30 m, up to 1.50 m near the Italian border. On the south side, it is generally between 50 and 80 cm, and reaches 90 cm in the massifs of Queyras and Tabor.
Corsica
The snow is very low.
It starts around 1900 m in the north, 2000 m in the south, with only a few centimeters of snow. It is necessary to climb to the highest altitudes, at 2500 m, to find a layer of snow of 15 to 20 cm of thickness.
Pyrenees
Snow is absent at low and medium altitude, while higher, the thicknesses are lower than normal.
The snowfall begins in the north generally between 1700 and 1900 m, 2000 or 2100 m in the most easterly massifs. As you go south you have to go up to 2000 m of altitude in the western third of the chain, 2100 or 2200 m in the rest of the chain, to find a snowy soil.
At 2000 m, there are 30 to 40 cm north of the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, 10 to 20 cm in the central part of the chain, 0 to 5 cm in its eastern half.
At 2500 m, the thickness of the northern slopes is high, 90 cm to 1.05 m, in the most western massifs, between 50 and 60 cm in the center of the chain, between 20 and 40 cm in its half East. On the south side, they are between 45 and 65 cm in the most western massifs, 15 to 30 cm elsewhere.
Vosges, Jura and Massif Central
There is currently no snow in these massifs.
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http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/43833423-enneigement-en-montagne-au-14-decembre-2016
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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What the weather gods giveth....the weather gods taketh!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Météo France is teasing me now..Snow forecast for 24th and 25th for Alpe d'Huez !
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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GFS 12z not a great run for anywhere Alpine. Very bad for Austria, which gets almost nothing. Better for France and the southern Alps, which get something modest around Christmas Day. No Retour de L'Est or other significant Italian snow.
Still generally favours significant resistance from the eastern block, pushes the Christmas low South and squeezes the life out of prior efforts to snow on the mountains.
ECM 12z better, with a major (MAJOR!) dumping for Italian resorts as that Med low gets stuck in, followed by a similar (to GFS) Christmas present for France. Scraps for Austria but again, not a great run for the northern Alps.
Plenty of time for details to change again of course, and the big picture looks alright, as it looks increasingly likely that at least something might reach at least a portion of the Alps from the West during the Christmas period.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@WellingtonBoot, that's why means are so useful for predicting the long long term and climate predictors like ENSO and NAO. They give stable predictions, taking into account the full computing power of the run.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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<iframe></iframe>
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Jellybeans1000, Don't use the prediction word. People react in strange ways!
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Flaine 18z makes me smile, please, please, please, repeat, again over the next week 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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18z all but removes chance of snow before Christmas day in French alps.
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FAQ
