 Poster: A snowHead
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The BBC reports that the weather pattern known as El Nino has been forming and could cause a "substantial weather event". The last time such an event occurred 5 years ago coincided with a much colder winter in the UK. Are we on course for a repeat of the winter of 2010?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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2010 was a bit rubbish as I recall. I hope not.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
| The last time such an event occurred 5 years ago coincided with a much colder winter in the UK |
By coincided with, do you mean:
- Happened at the same time as - ie El Nino happened in the winter?; or
- The much colder winter was as a result of an El Nino from May (or a time much earlier in the year than winter)?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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have to say I thoroughly enjoyed 2010, was up at glenshee twice a week and had 3 great trips.. sounds good to me
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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2010/11 was great from a skiing point of view in Scotland. However, it was a total pain in the a**e from a living, working and getting around point of view as our infrastructure simply couldn't cope, which was doubly annoying in view of the previous winter being almost as bad! If 2015/16 is bad living in it will be worse still after the previous 4 winters being almost snowless at lower levels which I fear will have resulted in reduced budgets for snow clearing etc etc.
IIRC it was adequate in the Eastern Alps, not sure about the West, Ok for snowfall but some horrible mild spells too.
I would reckon that if 2015/16 is especially cold and snowy in the UK or in Europe as a whole then it will probably be entirely coincidental, albeit very pleasing from the skiing point of view it may be simply down to the fact that we haven't had such a winter for a while?
So if it is then the BBC et al correctly predicted it and if its not then 2010 was a coincidence? Whats to lose?
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I thought the only known effects of an el nino was on the Americas (from reading the weather thread.) A moderate el nino was recorded a month ago, does it take the beeb that long to get this on the telly?
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I'd always been told that El Nino/La Nina had, at best, only a marginal effect on European weather conditions, and that our winters are controlled by low pressure systems in Central Russia and the North Atlantic. There is an Atlantic equivalent of El Nino/La Nina called the North Atlantic Oscillation (the NAO to its friends) which isn't hugely well understood but seems to have a 2-3 year cycle and has the effect of tracking winter storms either north over France or south over Italy.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@HutToHut, yep, the only (generally) predictable effects are local to the middle Americas, and elsewhere downstream it's a lottery. At our longitude (roughly half way around the world from the El Nino/La Nina source), its effects are so diffuse that it's impossible to distinguish between correlation and chance, even at middle latitudes (southern Europe). At our latitude and longitude, seeing a correlation between weather patterns and El Nino/La Nina is the domain of hocus pocus practising, long range weather forecasters. You'd have as much luck using tea leaves and crystal balls to predict next winter as you would by factoring in El Nino. There are plenty of resources on the internet collecting stats for European winters vs EN/LN years.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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LOL "doooomed ah tell ye, wir aall doooomed''
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Mr Hudsons view:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/fee32445-15c0-4d2c-9423-1a1281c8fd37
In March, observations in the Pacific confirmed that a weak El Nino event was upon us, with scientists now believing that there is a 70% chance that the phenomena will last through summer, and a 60% chance that it will last through autumn.
El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to disrupt climate patterns around the world.
During previous El Nino events, much wetter winters have occurred in Southwest USA.
For California, the developing El Nino will therefore be welcome news following a chronic lack of rainfall.
The Australian bureau of meteorology has predicted that it could strengthen, with a risk of a ‘substantial’ event.
But caution is required – other models suggest it will remain weak or moderate at best – moreover computer models are notoriously unreliable when it comes to this type of prediction.
There’s been a lot of talk in the media this week about the possible impact El Nino will have here in the UK, with talk of a harsh winter ahead.
Research suggests that it can cause colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean in response to a jet stream that is forced further south than normal.
During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the UK, was exceptionally cold.
But there are many other factors which affect our climate.
Indeed there was a deep, protracted solar minimum at the same time, which is known to increase the likelihood of colder winters.
And despite El Nino of 2006/2007, Europe’s winter was mild.
So it’s far too soon, and far too simplistic, to suggest that next winter will be cold solely in response to El Nino.
But higher global temperatures are almost certain.
That means 2015 is odds on to becoming the warmest globally on instrumental record.
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FAQ
, I'm just seeking to promote some discussion/speculation. 
