 Poster: A snowHead
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Please read: http://wepowder.com/weblog/5514/Northern-Alps-are-late-winters-better%3F
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Early snow in the northern Alps is not good
This is said among the older locals (you know, people who already lived in the mountains before Facebook etc ..). Let's see .... Last winter (2013-2014) started early in the northern Alps but pretty much ended in November. Ischgl knew one of the best openings ever and after that the snowfall in the northern Alps never came. Winter 2001-2002 started early as well. Snow came down in September, followed by a poor winter an this time for the entire Alps. Winter 2002-2003 started early with lots of snow in October and November. December, January and February were relatively dry and only in April, it was on like Donkey Kong again. It was an okay winter for the northern Alps and fine in the Southern Alps. Winter 2007-2008 began with promising record amounts of snow from mid-November. In early December, winter came back, and then it turned out to be a southern winter. A winter, quite the same as the winter of 2013-2014, where the northern Alps never got their share.
We see a number of winters that pretty much confirm this. Early snow in the northern Alps is not good. If we turn this around we get to the following hypothesis: Snow December and especially January in the northern Alps is good.
Snow in december and especially January in the northern Alps is good
There is plenty of 'proof' for this hypothesis. The 1999 avalanche winter started late. Only in January the snow started falling in the north and it just didn't stop anymore. Also winter 2003-2004 had some snow in October in the north, and the south was up next. Until mid-December, the snow didn't come down in the northern Alps but it pretty much snowed for the rest of the season once it started. It was a very good winter in the north and winter continued into May. The same picture is seen in winter 2005-2006. Snow in October and then rather dry. Until mid-December, then it started to snow and it was a very good winter that continued till late april. Winter 2009-2010 only started late and it was late January when it was at full speed. February was particularly good in the northern Alps. Winter 2011-2012: snow in October and warm temps and no snow in November. Winter really started in the middle of December. Winter 2012-2013 brought snow in October and warm temps in November (with lots of snow in the south). Only in December it started to snow and it became a great winter in the northern Alps. Christmas was as often mild, but January and February very good. It was cold. |
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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That's sorted that then. I'm very reassured/not reassured at all*
*delete as applicable
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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No-one's laughed at my "she's not dead" punchline yet.
Am I no longer hilarious?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@under a new name, Tumbleweeds 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| halfhand wrote: |
That's sorted that then. I'm very reassured/not reassured at all*
*delete as applicable |
Exactly. Wait and see!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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I find it best to just cancel any previously booked holiday in early Dec, then I worry not.!
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Worry or don't, won't change what falls out of the sky and when. If you've booked a holiday in December in a non- glaciated euro resort then simple analysis of say thirty years' records should tell you that there is a risk you'll be dependent on WROD to a greater or lesser extent. Of course many years it works out dandy but rather than getting stressed why not accept you've chosen to do a weather dependent sport and some times you'll get lucky others you'll luck out.
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Went Skiing in March 2007 - Bardonecchia. 90% of the slopes were closed, the day we left 1m of snow fell in 24hrs :[
It was the first ski holiday I had without "responsible adults" and we still had an amazing time, we had days at the Via Lattea which was in pretty good condition which made up for the lack of snow.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It's why resorts have bars 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I've always viewed skiing before Xmas as a bonus and whilst we've skied many times in run up to the holidays have always booked last minute and have never been disappointed once we've got to resort, Val, Cham, Tignes, Verbier, St Anton etc....however have decided against going many occasions.
This year IMO is no different, it's getting cold now in the Alps and a front is on its way, right on cue. I've back loaded my skiing this year and don't go to Arlberg until end January then late Feb/ early March. I seriously wouldn't be worried if I'd booked at Christmas though......I just prefer skiing powder these days rather than pistes.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Chill the chuff out.
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@Nadenoodlee, +1
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You know it makes sense.
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Bergfex seems to be forecasting a reasonable amount middle of next week 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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We normally go to Cervinia first week in Jan (ALWAYS loads of snow!) but we've chosen Les Arcs this time - slightly worried that there won't be enough of the white stuff (looking at the current cams) but with over four weeks to go it's getting colder by the day - one large dump and everything'll be cushty!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Nadenoodlee wrote: |
| Chill the chuff out. |
This. It will arrive.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I remember in December 2011, there was NO snow in Paradiski until December 17th (I was watching the webcams for NY). It then it dumped so much that even cars in Bourg St Maurice had over a metre on their roofs and the road up the mountain looked like it had been carved out of snow.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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of course. But possibly not until after a lot of people have had their only week's skiing of the year. Which is very disappointing for them.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I do feel sorry for those who'd booked for this week coming, but there are not so many stations that had forecast definitely opening tomorrow.
Looking on my local cams, much will be fine (as long as it stays cold overnight) for piste skiing as of the normal opening date for most of the local areas.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Just book end of January much easier.
I have booked New Year and half term, but not worrying at all, it always snows on the transfer days before and after Christmas.
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@Ravelin, The forecast past 5 days is unreliable, past 7 and it's impossible to tell what will happen. Fingers crossed for you! I'm out mid-Jan, usually NY for us too, so I know how it feels to hyperventilate about the snow!!!
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In the 30 years I've been skiing I have never once been unable to ski, even in the "book in July with tour operator and keep watching teletext era", I've been skiing as early as 17 December to Tignes, St Anton, Cham and Val etc, and so long as you're happy to ski on artificial snow that's fine, if your after powder I've learnt to leave until New Year........whatever I don't believe this year will be any different, it is 12th December, still approx 2 weeks before the main holidays. It's clearly a gamble to go any earlier, I'd never book until last minute pre-Xmas but you pays your money and takes your chance - it's just weather and it'll come at some point........hopefully soon. Personally I've got 7 weeks to wait which is a pain but it's a position I took some time ago - by back loading our season we have more chance of good pow!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Are you sitting comfortably ?
In the days before B S (before snowmaking) and before sH (snowHeads) most people used a TA (travel agent ) to book their annual one week ski holiday.
They travelled with a TO (tour operator ). BI (before Internet) the resort was chosen from many hours pouring over various colour magazines called Brochures.
Very very few brochures offered any dates before Christmas and those that did were for very high resorts such as Ischgl, some resorts had a snow guarantee, subject to certain data the TO would refund some of your costs if there was no snow. Thus pre Christmas skiing was from a very limited choice.
So, in summary nothing new unusual or odd about this year's weather. As an old Montalbert farmer said to me some years it snows early some years it's later but it always snows 
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@boredsurfin, Yep and the first couple of weeks from mid-December are frequently hit and miss, which is why the prices for those weeks tend to be the lowest of the entire season.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Waffle wrote: |
| I remember in December 2011, there was NO snow in Paradiski until December 17th (I was watching the webcams for NY). |
I think you might have your dates wrong. There was a lot of snow in Paradiski at least a week before the 17th.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@rob@rar, I may need to check precise days, but I remember for sure that there was nothing. The Marmottes was brown and right at the start of opening it dumped and dumped and dumped until after NY
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Les Arcs looked like this on 9 December 2011 (8 days before the resort opening), and it had been snowing for at least a couple of days by then
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You know it makes sense.
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Don't be picky poos. My point was not the precise date of the snow, it was that it was very late and had been non existent up to opening (ok, if you insist a week before), and it could have melted like last year and then frozen, but it turned into one of the best seasons ever for snow in Les Arcs.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Waffle, 
You specified an exact date, with extra capitalisation for emphasis, stating that there was no snow until one day after the opening of the resort. Sorry mate, but you were a little bit wide of the mark. As you can see, there was plenty of snow for at least a week before Paradiski opening, and plenty of snow for the opening date of the Trois Vallees (10 December) just down the road.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Ok, I will change the above post to 'There was bug all settled snow until about a the week before the season started. Not a centimetre. Nada. Zilch. Tipota. Rien, but it all changed quickly and the season got underway well'
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Waffle, well done.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@rob@rar, Bovvered 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Waffle, you might not be, but for those of us who ski early season the date of when the snow arrives is quite important. Sorry to correct you about 2011, but I think it's important to be accurate about these things.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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So it's important to be accurate about predicting the weather more than 3 days ahead? My post was an optimistic and amicable attempt towards some early season peeps that it can all change within a few days. Not about exact dates, about the mountains being unpredictable for weather. 1st week is always a risk, though Christmas is hardly ever a problem for snow. 'Bovvered' was also amicable, though never mind. I'll go and do something else.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Waffle wrote: |
| So it's important to be accurate about predicting the weather more than 3 days ahead? My post was an optimistic and amicable attempt towards some early season peeps that it can all change within a few days. Not about exact dates, about the mountains being unpredictable for weather. 1st week is always a risk, though Christmas is hardly ever a problem for snow. 'Bovvered' was also amicable, though never mind. I'll go and do something else. |
If you'd said that instead of quoting 17th December I would have agreed with you. However, getting the date wrong by more than a week is misleading, not least to those of us who actually skied that week.
I know what bovvered means, thanks. I'll just point out that I corrected your factual mistake in the gentlest of terms, and posted a photo to illustrate my point. Rather than flouncing couldn't you have just said "yeah, fair point"?
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@rob@rar, @Waffle, get a room
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one year - can't remember which - there was very heavy, sudden, snowfall which caught a lot of pine trees unprepared, before they'd got properly into winter mode with drooping branches. A lot round our way just fell over, and some were impeding chairlift paths and had to be lopped by blokes with chain saws on sticks. Was that 2011? That snow didn't go away.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| pam w wrote: |
| one year - can't remember which - there was very heavy, sudden, snowfall which caught a lot of pine trees unprepared, before they'd got properly into winter mode with drooping branches. A lot round our way just fell over, and some were impeding chairlift paths and had to be lopped by blokes with chain saws on sticks. Was that 2011? That snow didn't go away. |
The problem is Pam, that one year runs into another in the memory. I think the last two years had a similar-ish start. As Rob says I think 2011 had that huge dump in the first/second week december and then another huge dump at the end of december.
The next season, I think also had a lot of snow around the same time then nothing in January. I could be wrong though.
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| pam w wrote: |
| one year - can't remember which - there was very heavy, sudden, snowfall which caught a lot of pine trees unprepared, before they'd got properly into winter mode with drooping branches. A lot round our way just fell over, and some were impeding chairlift paths and had to be lopped by blokes with chain saws on sticks. Was that 2011? That snow didn't go away. |
The problem is Pam, that one year runs into another in the memory. I think the last two years had a similar-ish start. As Rob says I think 2011 had that huge dump in the first/second week december and then another huge dump at the end of december.
The next season, I think also had a lot of snow around the same time then nothing in January. I could be wrong though.
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