 Poster: A snowHead
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Been tracking various forecasts, looked like 50cm+ was due from Thursday onwards, so booked flights to Geneva, just sorted accom in Morzine, then the noon snow-forecast has halved the amount to 15-20cm!
Anyone got any other reliable forecasts for Morzine?
cheers,
Greg
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Greg, the epicentre of the snowfall seems to be over Austria and Switzerland, just cancel Morzine accommodation and drive to somewhere in Swi...problem solved!
Harder for me, I'm flying to Lyon this weekend...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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gregh, it still looks like there will be some good precipitation in france on late friday afternoon - night - sat morning from http://pages.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/ predictions ... don't despair yet Cedric, you don't despair yet either!
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gregh,
Dont dispair Meteo Chamonix are forecasting 30-40cm more from Friday, and I rate their forecast as more reliable than dear old Snow-forecast, which is entirely computer based without the local meteo knowledge added in. They even rate the reliability of their predictions. Enjoy the pow wow you lucky devi!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It's amazing how much difference there is. Meteo France are saying sun for here tomorrow, but lameteo.org are saying snow! however it does look pretty good fro Friday, with a chance of a bit more over the weekend in this region (Oisans). Possibly more snow next week too - all we need is NO WIND!!!!! 
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Forecast for winds gusting up to 75kph in Val from Friday... Some snow from Thursday night onwards, according to the bulletins posted in the resort today.
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Meteo Chamonix are forecasting 30-40cm more from Friday
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a French instructor in the Arly Valley told me that he found the Chamonix Meteo the best and most reliable. I have found snow-forecast good on whether it will snow, but not much use on quantity. Anyway, I think there was quite a bit in Morzine already - so I'm sure you'll have a good time anyway.
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Funny old business this snow forecasting - it can dump it in one valley but be as dry as a witches tit in the one next door.
This time last year the Tarrantaise was screaming for snow IIRC. It dumped on the weekend of 18/19th December, could do with a repeat as it will go down on a base this time.
Tignes -9 and counting
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Big heavy clouds over Lausanne just now and bloody freezing
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brian
brian
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gregh, I belive snow-forecast use the GFS model as the base for their forecasts.
On the overnight runs, a big bump popped out of the Atlantic High pressure area and pushed the big trough heading for the alps out to the East a good bit. It's come back a bit on today's midday run but pushed the timescale out a bit, so the heaviest snow now looks like being late Friday afternoon and overnight.
I'll let you know how it looks tomorrow ...
Anyway, if you think that's bad, you should see what it's doing for Scotland from the 20th onwards. I'll be looking out my shorts and sandals if that doesn't turn round 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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brian, does the GFS have a better reputation for accuracy than other meteo models?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Ta Brian, damn high pressure!
Regards,
Greg
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Martin Nicholas you have made my day, flying to Geneva tomorrow and staying in Chamonix for the w/e
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You know it makes sense.
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I was in Les Gets on Saturday - some lovely powder through the trees and glorious sunny skies...then Avoriaz on Sunday for the SkiTest - again great snow and sunny skies and then Grand Montets in Chamonix on Monday - too ice packed for my liking and lots of exposed rocks so my first time in Cham was a bit of a let down in comparison to the fun in Les Gets and Avoriaz. Also, too many Brits in Cham for my liking! 
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brian
brian
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rob@rar.org.uk, depends who you listen to. The top 3 are reckoned to be MetO, ECMWF (a collaborative european venture) and GFS with top dog status usually going to ECM, I think. However, to an extent it's horses for courses, the different models are better at picking out some scenarios rather than others.
Anyway, GFS is by far the most popular for net weather chat because the whole 16 days worth of run is made freely available to the public and they run it every every 6 hours (even though it's very rarely worth looking at beyond a week). Complete with precip charts, wind charts, surface temperature charts, etc. loads and loads of data
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Poster: A snowHead
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so when is the next GFS run Brian, is it 6am, noon, 6pm, midnight???
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brian
brian
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gregh, yep. It appears here about 3-4 hours after each model run.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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brian,
where can the snowforecasts of ECMWF be found? Checked the website but haven't been able to find anything. I'm heading to Tignes sunday and hope for a nice dump before arriving, otherwise i have to be prepared for some roch skiing I'm afraid.... And snow-forecast and GFS dont give me much hope.
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cheers Brian, Wish I understood German, I'll open a bottle and see if it helps me make sense of that webpage 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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gregh, according to my mate on the spot, avoriaz has the best snow in France right now.
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Hang on a minute Snow FC use the GFS model which is freely available and refreshedevery 6 hours!!
Got to hand it to them!
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easiski, I'd like a clear road over the Lauteret on Sunday please!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Helen, the forcast for sunday is clear sky and dry, although light snow is expected friday and saturday.
Bon voyage!
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"Funny old business this snow forecasting - it can dump it in one valley but be as dry as a witches tit in the one next door. "
Doesn't even have to be in different valleys.....Cham Meteo showed no snow for their resorts yesterday but Les Houches website showed they had a powder day! even more confusing is that LH changed from 85cm of hard snow to 75cm of velvet........powder can blow away but 10cm of hard snow disappear in -8C with very few punters around.....did they scrape off the top layer of hard stuff and fluff up the powder underneath? 
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brian
brian
Guest
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gregh, the midnight operational on the GFS didn't look great for you but don't panic yet:
These are the GFS ensembles for Geneva (Genf).
The spiky lines at the bottom are precipitation (niederschlag in German). The thick blue line is the operational run, ie. current conditions fed into the model. It shows a disappointingly small bump overnight 16th/17th December. However, it's one of just 10 runs, reflecting the spread of accuracy of the initial inputs to the model. Every other ensemble member shows a much bigger spike and the mean (the white line) would represent a very hefty bit of dumpage.
So even at less than 48 hours out, still all to play for .....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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doh!! of course... how could I have been so confused 
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cheers Brian, looks like something will happen, just a question of how much!
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brian
brian
Guest
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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ohh, fantastic, does that spike give you any idea of amount, and how mild is a tad mild!!!!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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brian, Come on please put us out of our misery, what's a tad mild
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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CP, Nothing to worry about from what I can see. Freezing level @ around 1500m at the highest
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Helen Beaumont, So long as you've got your chains handy you should be fine.
Very unscientific, but I'm sure something's happening as the weaker satellite channels have now become pixelated and unwatchable. This happens here every time there's major weather on the way.
ps: why don't we have a finger crossing smilie?????
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if I read Brians chart correctly then it's for Geneva, then it'll be under zero degrees, apart from the blue line which pops to about +3 for one day, then they all stay sub zero for the length of the forecast.
regards,
Greg
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brian
brian
Guest
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A tad mild is a freezing level of around 1500m, which would probably mean rain in Morzine I think. The mean still suggests colder than this though, perhaps 1200m. It will definitely get colder as the front moves through and the back edge will produce snow to low levels.
Amounts ? I'm no expert but that predicts enough precipitation at Geneva to give about 15-20cm of level snow. Now add in the effects of the mountains* and you can at least double that.
* it's called orographic lifting. Air laden with moisture is forced upwards as it hits the mountains. The rise in altitude means a drop in temperature and pressure and so the air can't hold the same amount of water vapour, hence it produces more snow (or rain). This is what makes forecasting snow amounts in mountains so tricky, as the topography of the mountain and the wind speed and direction all have big parts to play. Snow-forecast.com claim they can take all this into account, I have my doubts ....
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Hard to imagine any snow in the offing from where I'm sitting, looking out of the window of the Val d'Isère Club des Sports at an azure sky, not a cloud in sight, same as yesterday. Yet change is forecast overnight, so there's hope for the tourists, if disappointment for the racers here should the speed events not go ahead Saturday and Sunday.
Excellent lunch and a great interview with Chemmy, will post a link later when I've got it all typed up...
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brian
brian
Guest
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gregh, that's the temperature at the point in the atmosphere where the pressure is 850 mb. Average sea level pressure is 1000mb, so this point is usually round about 1500m, but drops lower in low pressure conditions and vice versa.
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ah, thought it was too easy!! snow-forecast are saying a max of zero in Morzine at 1000m tomorrow, so hope they are right! f/level up to 1250m Friday, but down to 0 by Sat night
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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JT, It's about 24-36 hours ahead of the weather usually, so clearly something atmospheric. If I paid to get my dish 100% aligned I'd miss my personal weather forecast! 
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