 Poster: A snowHead
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The Summer Solstice.
The sun is shining.
Barbecues are smoking.
The race towards winter starts today.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
Summer is sweet but
when its power is spent no man
need mourn its passing |
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Nights are getting longer, winter is on its way 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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My easyjet app on my phone tells me how many days to go. Now when shall the snow panic begin.....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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We're currently just in weak El Niño territory and it still looks like this is the direction of travel albeit a little less clear cut than earlier.
BOM's latest round up sums it up as follows
"Despite recent observations and some easing in the model outlooks, climate models surveyed by the Bureau still indicate El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014."[for spring read autumn in northern hemisphere].
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Here's some thoughts from Joel Gratz including the classic Chris Farley sketch.
http://m.onthesnow.com/news/a/107247/-the-el-niño-effect--how-the-el-niño-weather-pattern-drives-snow-in-the-u-s---
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sun 29-06-14 12:26; edited 2 times in total
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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CFS suggests a moderate to strong El Niño event arriving in autumn.
CFSv2 ENSO 3.4
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sun 29-06-14 12:23; edited 1 time in total
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The days start getting shorter but also the snow continues to dissappear reaching the low point around October. Skiing is perhaps a more reliable spring sport than an early winter one.
Will the snow arrive in November or will it be January or later 
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CFS is currently suggesting a moderate (possibly strong) El Niño. ECMWF is indicating a weak to moderate event.
ECMWF ENSO plumes
There's an interesting piece about the signal and the noise (relevant to ensemble forecast more generally) below.
ENSO Signal and Noise
Last edited by After all it is free  on Sun 29-06-14 12:28; edited 2 times in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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What is the impact of El Nino on European snow? Thanks!
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SkiingQuinHat, here's some thoughts on that subject from last year.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Not a huge amount is the short answer, especially for Europe.
From 2012/13 thread.
"Here's a good article from offpistemag.com by Leigh Jones and Wendy Wagner on the impact or not of ENSO in the US.
Demystifying ENSO
"In the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and the Intermountain North, an El Niño winter has a greater chance to be
drier and warmer than average, and vice versa for a La Niña winter. For California and the Southwest, El Niño winters have a greater chance to be wetter than average, and vice versa for La Niña. Furthermore, the stronger the El Niño or La Niña, the greater the chance of seeing an out- of-the-norm winter. But don’t kid yourself – it’s way more complicated than just that.
The dirty little secret that gets drowned out in the hype is that any one climate signal doesn’t necessarily guarantee that your snow season is going to be a boom or a bust. Some regions in the West experience La Niña more strongly than El Niño (the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia). For some regions, the opposite is true. Some regions won’t typically see impacts from El Niño or La Niña when the signal is weak, but only when it is moderate-to-strong (the Sierra Nevada). Some regions may experience large variability within a season, where the early or late season may be more heavily weighted (Colorado). And if you ski Utah’s Wasatch, the surprising truth is that there’s just no reliable correlation between ENSO and the “Greatest Snow on Earth.”
But as they say... it's more complicated than that..." |
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Noza going out to Val Thorens in a couple of weeks for some cycling. What is the summer looking like in the Alps?
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You know it makes sense.
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| emwmarine wrote: |
| Noza going out to Val Thorens in a couple of weeks for some cycling. What is the summer looking like in the Alps? |
Not sure about mid July, but this weekend and start of next week look quite messy with heavy rain at times.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Snow down to 2100m or so in the Alps today and tomorrow. Heavy rain below that.
Here's SLF's take.
"Avalanche bulletin through Wednesday, 9 July 2014
Lots of fresh fallen snow in high alpine regions
On Tuesday, the snowfall level is expected to decrease from the west down to approximately 2200 m and on Wednesday lie at 2000 m widespread. On Monday night, southerly winds will prevail. On Tuesday, westerly to northerly winds will be blowing at moderate to strong velocity at high altitudes; on Wednesday, shifting to northwesterly and blowing at moderate strength.
Between Monday evening and Wednesday evening there will be 50 to 80 cm of snowfall above 2500 m on the northern flank of the Alps; elsewhere, 30 to 60 cm of new fallen snow is anticipated. In high alpine regions of the northern Alpine Ridge and of the Lower Valais, as much as a meter of fresh fallen snow is expected."
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Poster: A snowHead
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6 degrees this morning in Montalbert ...30 degrees last week......
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Not sure it's crazy weather. Most summers there are the odd spells of snow at occasional times all though the summer. It melts after a day or so though.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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SLF has produced a good round up of last season.
http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/wochenbericht/2013-14/Jahresbericht/index_FR
Some of the key points:
- Thin snow pack up until Christmas which lead to the formation of a weak base layer which in some areas contributed to avalanches throughout the season.
- On the southern side of the Alps, particularly from Christmas there was an exceptional amount of snowfall (200-250% of normal precipitation). Several weather stations breaking daily snowfall records.
- From January in the southern Alps this heavy snowfall stabalised the weak layer from early season. However, in Valais the combination of the snowfall and weak layer lead to an unusually lengthy period of instability (avalanche risk 3).
- Overall there were 17 avalanche fatalities in the Swiss Alps, which is below the 20 year average of 22.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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A bit of cooling means we've dropped out of the El Niño range for now though a moderate event still looks to be on the cards. Here's BOM from 15 July:
"While the majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for the spring of 2014, most have eased their predicted strength. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event."
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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More snow down to relatively low levels for summer (below 2500m) looks likely in the Alps on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Interesting piece in Atmosnews on relationship between El Niño and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs).
EL NIÑO’S HIGH-ALTITUDE HIGHWAY
Weather shaper affects Europe via the stratosphere
"A study led by Amy Butler (University of Colorado Boulder/CIRES) now shows that El Niño effects extend all the way to Europe, where their influence was long thought to be minimal."
"The combination of an El Niño event and an SSW appears to be especially conducive to outbreaks of Arctic air."
"Looking at the period 1958–2013, the scientists also found that SSWs were more than twice as likely to occur during El Niño years as during neutral years."
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Update from SLF.
http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_EN
"Weather forecast through Wednesday
On Monday night and during the day on Tuesday, heavy precipitation is anticipated in some places. The snowfall level will drop in western regions from 3200 down towards 2600 m. In eastern regions it will be at about 3200 m. By Tuesday evening above 3500 m in the Bernese and Urner Alps and in the Upper Valais, about 50 to 80 cm of new fallen snow is expected. In the remaining regions, as well as in general at lower altitudes, much less snowfall is expected. Winds will be blowing at moderate velocity from southerly directions.
On Wednesday skies will be heavily overcast for the most part. In the Bernese Alps above approximately 3400 m, an additional 20 to 40 cm of snowfall is possible. Winds will be blowing at moderate velocity from northerly directions."
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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BOM ENSO update 29 July. El Niño still looks more likely than not, but indicators of likelihood and strength both weaken.
El Niño indicators ease http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other. As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values.
While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year's end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.
Given the current observations and the climate model outlooks, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker has shifted to El Niño WATCH status. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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ZAMG's perspective on July in Austria.
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/juli-2014-stellenweise-extreme-regenmengen
- Extreme rainfall in places.
- Overall slightly warmer than average (+0.5C) and slightly less sunny (-10%).
- Bregenz had the second highest rainfall for the month of July since records began in 1874.
- In detail:
- Vorarlberg, +60% precipitation, temperature -0.3C, sunshine -20%
- Tirol, +30% precipitation, temperature -0.1C, sunshine -25%
- Salzburg, +8% precipitation, temperature +0.4C, sunshine - 15%
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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A good and informative read, pretty surprising there's no avi forecast / service at all in Oz.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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A cautionary note from SLF.
"Summer Avalanches
Much snow in high Alpine regions
08.08.2014 - After the enormous precipitation in July, extraordinary amounts of snow can still be found in high Alpine regions at the moment. Alpinists should therefore pay particular attention to the avalanche danger. More"
http://www.slf.ch/praevention/ueberlawinen/sommerlawinen/index_EN
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Poster: A snowHead
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oops. Going out there tomorrow.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well there is still snow on north facing slopes down to 2600m which I haven't seen before and it is forecast to snow tomorrow when I am meant to be doing Col de la Madelaine.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Nice and warm today but I did have to scrape snow off the car this Morning..
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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I was up in val thorens where it is a bit colder. It rained up here most of yesterday evening, as it did on top col de la madelaine, and must have turned to snow overnight as all the cars had a covering in the morning.
Nice and warm everywhere today.
The Morgan and TR4 looked very nice.
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Yeah that tr4 was lovely. Likewise the mga ... Thanks for the xplanation.
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When I say cooler I mean than average. If the sun is shining in mid August it's still going to feel pretty warm.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| andy1234 wrote: |
| Yeah that tr4 was lovely. Likewise the mga ... Thanks for the xplanation. |
There were some weird french cars I had never seen before and some very very old ones that surely would have been fun driving down the mountain.
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FAQ
