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Most dangerous avalanche conditions for a decade

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
T Bar, ones this spectacular are rare, I've seen dozens more (photos and in real life), usually much smaller, still potentially fatal.
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Close to piste is safer for two reasons: a) avalanche control (resorts work hard to avoid getting a reputation for killing their clients) b) skier compaction.

Careful of the "ER". Safer. Not safe. SafER. Which stats support.
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With the recent warm weather has there been any change in the snow pack stability?
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Have a look at today's bulletin for the Tarentaise (les Arcs, la Plagne, Tignes, Val d'Isere). There have been repeated small snowfalls in the area creating a complicated snowpack. The weak layer's are there and just need to be triggered. Conditions change on a daily, even hourly basis. The warm weather has reactivated the weak layers below 2200m.

Quote:

General synopsis. risk 3/5 - traps!

The avalanche activity is significant. 20 to 30 avalanches per day. (full depth slabs on SE slopes. 30cm deep slab on NE slope under 2200 meters, ski triggered slab on N slope at 2400m). Lots of snow transport from the south seen this Saturday from 2300 meters. Recent snow pits have shown a snowpack that has thawed dangerously. Especially in deep layers where there are currently hoar layers. This is not too good for the stability of the snowpack especially as it is very warm and the surface snow is wet. Below 2000-2200 meters the snowpack, which is humidifying, and warming there is the possibility of full depth slides or 60 to 80cm deep slabs including north faces. Slopes that have already been skied such as the Lavachet etc. can go, watch out! Above 2200/2400 meters the snowpack is wintry, the weak layers are better buried but on the surface the foehn has created numerous slabs which can be triggered by a single skier (30cm deep). Take are on West to North sector slopes which have most snow but also on steep to very steep NE slopes. The frontier region has the most slabs.


So a lot of local risk. At altitude watch out for terrain traps, 30cm of snowdepth can bury you. Don't follow tracks thinking it is safe.
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Interesting post, thank you again davidof.

In most resorts the hoar layer serms well buried. Most professionals are currently most mindful of wind slabs. But those I have talked to seem concerned re what is going to happen in late season with the buried weak layer as the snowpack becomes thinner and more moist. Clearly if things settle for a while now we can't allow ourselves think all is hunky-dory for rest of year
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peanuthead wrote:
Interesting post, thank you again davidof.

In most resorts the hoar layer serms well buried. Most professionals are currently most mindful of wind slabs. But those I have talked to seem concerned re what is going to happen in late season with the buried weak layer as the snowpack becomes thinner and more moist. Clearly if things settle for a while now we can't allow ourselves think all is hunky-dory for rest of year


Remember that although you as a skier may not be able to punch down to the weak layer a surface slab could have enough force, or a group even. It is important to remember that the snowdepth is rarely even across a slope so although the weak layers may be under 100-150 cm of snow the wind may transport snow leaving areas where they are only 50cm deep. and therefore susceptible to skier triggering. Maybe that's what happened to Cecile, pisteur, who triggered this slide

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-Tx_iFQO7xxo/UtFwD6qrrVI/AAAAAAAARpA/7Ky0ngf_LC0/s1000/IMG_1552.JPG
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davidof, top notch advice as always. Really appreciate your posts
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Actually in the Chablais, PDS etc, the risk is down to 2/3 so the snow pack is stabilising due to the effect of thaws etc.
Good advice above, despite the dramatics.
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nevis1003 wrote:
Actually in the Chablais, PDS etc, the risk is down to 2/3 so the snow pack is stabilising due to the effect of thaws etc.
Good advice above, despite the dramatics.


3 above 1800 meters (ok I know the Chablais is pretty flat but still). 3 is in the upper half of the risk spectrum. Similar advice to the Vanoise, localized risk but beware of already skied slopes and full depth slides could be triggered by groups.
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nevis1003
Quote:
the risk is down to 2/3
Don't be lulled into complacency … the first fatality this year was a guided group at level 1 in the Arlberg
http://www.wheretoskiandsnowboard.com/news/avalanche-warnings-as-british-teenager-dies/
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Ski the Pyrenees?
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After piste cruising with my daughters Sat, Sun and Mon in La Tania, Courchevel, Saint Foy, Tignes & Val D'Isere (bit of a safari) and once back home (Serre Chevalier) yesterday opted for a mini ski tour - here in Tabor still risk 3.

So decided on heading up to an area I know where gradient is very mellow.

All South facing and at around 2000m saw this evidence of one / maybe two slides and you can see the tracks going into it.

The fracture line is actually right across the top of the two slides if you look closely - slope was in the region of >35 degrees more to the right of picture



You can see more pics of the area we toured and route here
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I recall a few years back, maybe 4, there were similar conditions, with early snow and a deep weak layer. Then what peanuthead, referred to occurred, in that the slides at the end of the season were very significant.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Took my SCGB group off piste today with a local guide, he too is mindful of the weak lower layer and said it will probably be a problem later in the season.......
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I was a bit pushed for time yesterday so didn't look at the snowpack properly but on one slope we were on there was about 60-80cm of fresh snow in various layers on top of a significant layer of depth hoar. It would take quite a lot to trigger a slab such as a group skiing together. The repeated 10-20cm snowfalls this year are not great. Still after the Christmas blitz when fresh snow fell on the weak layer I warned about things have been fairly calm but a lot of the local ski touring crowd have either not been skiing or have been much more careful this year what they ski.

It is there, it is something to take into account.

Talking of the Pyrnees, it is getting dumped on at the moment with consequent high avalanche risk.
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Weathercam, am I right in recalling there have been warnings re avalanches on lower south facing slopes due to mikd weather?
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Some of you may remember a TR from last season where Mike and I climbed the Pointe de Rognier to ski the NW couloir of the adjacent Gargotton mountain

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=98132

Two skiers, a brother and sister, were descending from the summit on Saturday. Maybe they'd been inspired to visit this superb peak by a trip report posted on a social networking site the day before. A trip report that raised a number of eyebrows from locals. Descending from the summit on skis they triggered a slab which carried them 400 meters down slope. Agnes, was buried under 20cm of snow, her hands visible reaching out of the debris. Her brother, some distance away, could hear the beep beep of her avalanche beacon but was unable to move, suffering from a broken thigh and severe knee injury.

Alerted by the brother a few minutes after the accident the rescue services dispatched the two closest rescue helicopters, one from Grenoble the other, Annecy. Arriving on the scene half an hour later the rescue workers quickly found Agnes, her throat blocked by snow. She wasn't breathing and her heart had stopped. After getting her heart restarted she was airlifted to Grenoble University Hospital. On a weekday her place of work, she was a researcher in blood diseases. She died later in the afternoon.

Agnes was just one of four avalanche deaths in the French Alps this weekend, all at risk 3, as well as numerous injuries, more or less severe, and near misses.

I'm reminded of Whymper's words as he reflected on the Matterhorn accident.

Quote:
“(Ski) if you will, but remember that courage and strength are nought without prudence, and that a momentary negligence may destroy the happiness of a lifetime. Do nothing in haste; look well to each step; and from the beginning think what may be the end.”
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Even the BBC are taking note:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25915242

A report based on the same material was on Radio 4's PM programme this evening.
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templiersluz wrote:
Ski the Pyrenees?


That's looking iffy at the moment.



1m in 24 hours followed by a rapid increase in temps.
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AndAnotherThing.., I imagine that's the house in Tanau that I was reading about? Crazy place to build dwellings (or at least, the back row of houses wink). Money talks, as alway.
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Pyremaniac, Yep, that's the one. I always wondered about some of the houses they have build down in Arties. Although there is a barrier I imagine that it will gradually fill with rubbish and become less effective. Apparently in the past Avalanches made it as far as the Church....
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A question or two for snowpack experts.. We had a lot of snow in val disere on Sunday followed by some warm temperatures. Since the snow fall I've seen a lot of cracks in the snowpack going right down to the rock bellow. What's the name for this and is it caused by the weight of the new snow or the temperatures? Finally, are these cracks a cause of many avalanches?
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Sound like glide cracks

http://www.fsavalanche.org/encyclopedia/glide.htm
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That's exactly what I've seen. Thanks for the link
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qwertyuiop7 wrote:

What about La Foglietta at Sainte Foy,


Now you mention it, how about this?





Eyewitness description (photo taken next day)
Quote:
"Large slab on the north face of the Foglietta after a snowboarder broke part of the cornice on the ridge to give access to the face before dropping in. Luckily there were no other skiers on the face at the time. The snow went on one of the weak layers formed earlier in the season. The slide occurred during a whiteout which made checking the debris complicated for rescue workers. (11h45, 18/2/2014)."


Avalanche risk 2, slide depth between 1 and 3 meters. Slide ran from 2875 meters to 1950 meters.
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ouch
not sure i'd head up there in a whiteout no matter how good the stability was
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Arno wrote:
ouch
not sure i'd head up there in a whiteout no matter how good the stability was


Good point, I've no idea how poor the viz. was but obviously not good enough to take photos. Apparently 20 skiers on the climb up to the col at the time of the slide. According to a witness the slab went on the weak layer formed in early December. Obviously a lot of people have skied the face since then so interesting that it went last Tuesday.

Of the people who skied the face between December and last Tuesday a lot probably congratulated themselves on good route selection, mad avalanche skillz etc (as I have done myself) and maybe factors like group spacing stopped the face going earlier. Or maybe it was just time to slide.
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davidof, have you skied it? it's a cool face but it is very big, very north facing and lots of little terrain features which make it a great ski, but IMO you'd need Jedi route finding skills to select a safe route on it in bad visibility. That's my opinion anyway - maybe a local will come on and tell me I just need to ski it a few more times
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Arno wrote:
davidof, have you skied it?


Just from the col in the foreground right. I very rarely go that far north mind.
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Arno, I've ridden it (not by choice) in some of the worst white-out conditions I've ever experienced. We walked up in bright sunshine. As we were gearing-up on top, we were enveloped by a "small cloud" which seemed wispy and likely to pass. We dropped in, expecting to come straight back out of the bottom of it, only to find ourselves in a truly hideous (can't see far enough to make one small turn) whiteout.

Really grim. Reduced to throwing stuff ahead of ourselves to give something to aim for on each turn. I know the face well (I'm a local and have ridden it 50+ times) but was still very scared all the way down as there are many small rock bands that we could easily have gone straight off without seeing them. My nav wasn't bad, but we still ended up having to hike a little to get back on the right trajectory for the exit couloirs.

I have been somewhat conscious that the Fog was one of the places that may well still be holding the early-season weak layer. It's fairly high (3000m at the top), very north-facing and quite sheltered. The avalanche forecast on the day it went (big snowfall formed by warm temps) did say to expect some big, full-depth slides. Glad I wasn't up there!

Incidentally, davidof's description above is different from what I've heard by word-of-mouth locally (local opinion seems to be that it was a natural slide, nobody up there at the time) but that's pure hearsay, nothing official.

It's the biggest avy on the Fog that I've heard of in 7 winters here!
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davidof, I wonder if the Tignes avalanche incident of December 2012, where a young female trainee instructor died, ever got "resolved"? As i recall there was potential for it to become a charge of manslaughter. I did a search a while back but came up with nothing (possibly my v poor French) but hope some kind of reflection/learning came out of it for all concerned. Reading that tragic tale of Gargotton brought this back to mind.
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DoubleBombardino wrote:
davidof, I wonder if the Tignes avalanche incident of December 2012, where a young female trainee instructor died, ever got "resolved"?


This is what I heard last year

Quote:
I spoke to a credible source who says they've had access to the police report. The Pisteurs didn't give the green light to the group to ski the run but said they had done avalanche control work and nothing had moved. Some blame has been apportioned to the ski resort. How much is critical for the lead trainer who currently faces having his license suspended or cancelled.

The resort had not yet got around to marking the area as closed as they had been focussed on opening as much area as possible and had been overwhelmed by the snowfall. There had also been a change of shift between pisteurs and some communication issues between the teams. Both UCPA trainers and ENSA trainers were skiing the area. The UCPA group had not intended to go off piste but were looking for varied conditions.


it doesn't look like it was going as far as manslaughter. I know someone who is friendly the victim's family so I will see what I can find out, it is a sensitive subject though.
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Some sketchy conditions in Scotland.
http://saisscairngorms.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/avalanches-galore.html
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I used to read "Wayne's Daily Diary" on the Alpine Experience website (guiding service in Val D'Isere). Quite good for generally following the snow conditions and seeing what these boys are up to. Haven't looked at it the last couple of years so I thought I'd check it out again.

Part of entry for yesterday 25 February 2014:
Quote:
A skier was taken in a small slide yesterday in the Point Pers and escaped with a broken arm, and the Foglietta avalanched last week with a stack of people waiting to go in so we’ve had a bit of action considering the 2/5 avalanche risk.

Don't know whether this is an ongoing indication that things have still not stabilised or just the norm.
http://www.alpineexperience.com/waynes-daily-diary/
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Life taken yesterday in CHX. Avalanche Buet. Sad
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MeteoFrance seems to indicate that the recent spell of very warm weather has made things a little more secure deep down. I also note that some folks have been skiing some steep lines - and ones that are not often tracked too. Any views on the current state of play?
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After a spell over Christmas where there were quite a lot of deaths in the Alps things settled down quite a bit and Jan/Feb/Mar in France has perhaps been a bit below average. A lot of people took heed of the early season warnings and took a lot of care.

Don't let your guard down though-

http://pistehors.com/an-ordinary-day-23252218.htm
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We're moving well into spring conditions now with the odd spot of winter, like today, where you want nothing more than a little purged couloir





which exits into a nice skiable forest



today, with skiable snow in the French alps down to 800-1000m is exceptional and past the equinox things will thaw very quickly. That leaves winter at higher altitudes > 2500m and spring conditions lower down, risks you can manage without too much difficulty.
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davidof wrote:
After a spell over Christmas where there were quite a lot of deaths in the Alps things settled down quite a bit and Jan/Feb/Mar in France has perhaps been a bit below average. A lot of people took heed of the early season warnings and took a lot of care.

Don't let your guard down though-

http://pistehors.com/an-ordinary-day-23252218.htm


You are off to Termingnon aren't you? Even tomorrow conditions will have stabilized quite a bit compared to today but your trip is way off in Easter?
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I think a lot of people have taken extra care this winter due to the weak layer from December. I skied in Val d'annivers and the mountain guide we had said a lot of lines that are skied a lot during a normal season had been left empty the whole season. But skiing across a huge avalanche that had taken the whole side from the top down to the Lac de Moiry the previous week was sobering. Luckily, the people who had released was on top of the mountain and were unharmed. Still, such a scary season and as davidof says, care should still be taken.
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