 Poster: A snowHead
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Shimmy Alcott, looks awesome, but it's not really 'over the knee' (read lower thigh); just piled up a bit in front of you!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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under a new name, admittedly thigh deep powder on piste was a whole new experience for me, but it was much fun. It was in Austria, maybe you should try it some time.
I'm sticking to my guns, I realise snow conditions can vary and the weather gods do as they will, but the concept of 'no snow' in this day and age seems too unlikely given that the majority of resorts have excellent snowmaking capabilities. OK so the weather may be iffy and the snow may be rubbish, the weather is out of our hands after all, but the huge investment in snowmaking is there for a reason, to ensure that there is some snow so that the holidaymakers on which the winter economies of the ski resorts depend, have a decent enough holiday to entice them back again in future.
As to your other point, I'm not a weather guru by any stretch, but from what I have read the resorts in the western Alps have a climatic pattern which is influenced mainly by the Atlantic, so have a tendency to be wetter, milder and windier. The eastern Alps have a climatic pattern which is more influenced by the south and east, so have a tendency to be colder and drier and more settled. Obviously weather systems come along to throw curve balls into this general pattern, so you can get just about any weather anywhere. In the UK for example we get the majority of our weather from the south and west, the Atlantic again, so the western half of the UK is generally wetter, and the areas furthest from the coast tend to be slightly colder but less windy. Simplified weather watching for the layperson.
What the OP can expect in Austria is that the nights are likely to be cold enough for snowmaking if the natural snowfall has not been sufficient, the Austrian resorts in my experience are experts at preparing pistes and making the most of what they have got in terms of snow. They are committed to ensuring their guests enjoy great skiing and fantastic hospitality. I have never personally experienced Christmas in Austria, but by all accounts it is a magical experience.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Shimmy Alcott, that's clearly not thigh deep...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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clarky999, that was me taking a rest in the "shallow" bit 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Shimmy Alcott, 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
| Listen to the people who live in Austria and ask them how many times they haven't had a white Christmas. I'd hazard a guess that it's pretty rare. |
56% of Austrians live below 400m [ http://www.breiling.org/publ/climvariability.pdf ]. The average December temperature in Vienna (at 170m) is +1C. Given this, and particularly if one accepts the definition of a White Christmas as being "snow falling on the day" rather than "snow hanging-around", my guess would be more like:
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| Listen to the people who live in Austria and ask them how many times they have had a white Christmas. I'd hazard a guess that it's unusual. |
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shep, OK sorry my sentence should have read the 'snowheads people who live in Austrian ski resorts'. Sheesh!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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shep, I think she meant those who live in Austria who were skiing there at Christmas.
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Fairy snuff, pedant head on!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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queen bodecia, thanks. Nice post.
I more or less agree with all you say.
However, all that said, Christmas week is still very sketchy to guarantee snow. The OP is, as i think we've mostly all said, should be OK, but it just is not guaranteed.
Funnily enough, Xmas 2011 saw limited skiing around Chamonix because we had too much snow and the avalanche danger was too extensive.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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None of this, however, will stop people over-reacting to snow in late November and the first half of December. Any decent falls will be greeted with unjustified boasts about "another epic season". Any equally likely complete lack of snow will be greeted with unjustified pessimism and hand-wringing and talk of snow dances.
I remember a few years ago some very big early snow was followed by freezing levels over 3000m in December. November snow, or lack of it, has very little to say about Christmas snow, which quite often arrives only just in the knickers of time to prevent wholesale hysteria.
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 predictive text?
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You know it makes sense.
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Morzine, after many years of lobbying the FIS for an early season race, was finally given a women's slalom on Pleney at xmas '01. They enthusiastically turned the night-skiing floodlighting on every evening that week to advertise the coming spectacle. Race day dawned to a shocking green strip on an otherwise perfectly snowy mountain, as a result of the heat radiating from the lights! The race was cancelled....
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Shimmy Alcott,
...the knickers of time are far better than the pants of destiny...
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Poster: A snowHead
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Well a lot closer to travel date and tbh, bit disappointed as it doesn't look like much snow in Lofer before we arrive. We will still have a brillant holiday but don't think we will go in early season again,
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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2waterford, at present 7 out of 10 lifts open in Lofer which is probably only because the season proper hasn't really kicked in yet. The mountains look white on the webcams and it snowed a fair bit on Friday. Weather forecasts are showing a sunny clear week this week but the night-time temperatures should drop low enough for the cannons. You'll have a fabulous time, panic not...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| queen bodecia wrote: |
I'm sticking to my guns, I realise snow conditions can vary and the weather gods do as they will, but the concept of 'no snow' in this day and age seems too unlikely given that the majority of resorts have excellent snowmaking capabilities. |
It isn't common, but it does happen.
This was Neiderau in January 2007
There had been snow, but it started raining on the Thursday before I arrived, and it all melted. Although the temperature dropped, and it started snowing again late on the Tuesday night, they didn't manage to get any pistes open in Neiderau until the Friday.
We were taken 50 minutes by bus to Kaltenbach in the Zillertal each day to get some skiing.
But I accept that was fairly rare.
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2waterford, Whatever makes you think it will not be good? We were just a few miles away, skiing the Maiskogel (Kaprun's village hill) on Friday - opening day - it goes from 760m up to 1700m, and we were skiing fantastic powder, with good cover right to the bottom. I can't see how you could possibly expect better conditions!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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What happens if no snow? You don't ski.
Have faith, there will be snow. 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
I can't see how you could possibly expect better conditions!
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I think the question is what will be left of the nice snow you enjoyed after some warm weather and what looks like quite an extended snow-drought. The freezing level is rising this week to well above the level of Lofer's skiing (and that of many other resorts throughout the Alps). We all know that things can change; it's too soon to be despondent but the OP's concern is not quite as misplaced as you suggest.
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20 years ago skiing before New year was risky. More risky than April because the snow may not have arrived. Theses days most resorts seem to be able to make and manage snow to maintain a reasonable range of runs and 'snow guarantees' seem to have dissapeared. Some areas are more suitable for snow making than others. Austria and the Dolomites are particularly good early season destinations and probably at least as reliable as many higher but rockier and more exposed areas. The main risk these days would be prolonged mild windy or wet weather stripping snow and keeping temperatures and perhaps humidity too high to make snow. Its a few years now since that has happened in the Alps.
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Its a few years now since that has happened in the Alps.
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early 2007 (as in the photos above) was one example. IIRC early season and Christmas had been short of snow in the northern French Alps, but there was a reasonable fall at New Year - which we thought was the proper beginning of the season but then a prolonged warm and dry spell saw a lot of it disappear. I have a photo of slopes with a great deal of grass in mid February - looking more like late April.
Snow "guarantees" have probably disappeared because there's no such thing and folk are becoming more litigious. 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
the knickers of time
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Presumably what you find at the top of the trouser leg of time ?
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| Peter S wrote: |
| 20 years ago skiing before New year was risky. More risky than April because the snow may not have arrived. Theses days most resorts seem to be able to make and manage snow to maintain a reasonable range of runs and 'snow guarantees' seem to have dissapeared. Some areas are more suitable for snow making than others. Austria and the Dolomites are particularly good early season destinations and probably at least as reliable as many higher but rockier and more exposed areas. The main risk these days would be prolonged mild windy or wet weather stripping snow and keeping temperatures and perhaps humidity too high to make snow. Its a few years now since that has happened in the Alps. |
Snow forecast seems to suggest that it will be too warm to make snow overnight at the moment in many resorts. Is so the current coverage wont last long in the current sunny weather.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
Snow forecast seems to suggest that it will be too warm to make snow overnight at the moment in many resorts. Is so the current coverage wont last long in the current sunny weather.
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Which snow forecast? OP is going to Lofer, where the forecast is for a daytime maximum of 6 deg. over the next week. Most of the time the temperature will be around freezing, which is ideal for snowmaking. As for current conditions, check out the resort webcams or some of the up-to-date posts on here (e.g espri's report, with photos, from Hochfilzen yesterday - http://www.snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=105257&highlight= ).
The winter tourist economy is vital for much of Austria and there have been huge investments in snow-making, snow farming (some places even store the stuff over the summer) and general piste management. By huge investments I mean over 300 million Euros just in Saalbach-Hinterglemm-Leogang over the last 10 years. Unless there are prolonged periods of very warm and wet weather then December and January are now as snow-sure as they can be.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Despite my slightly doomy statistics on page 1, you would expect the snow to mostly arrive the last couple of weeks before Christmas so don't worry yet. Not much snow now is fairly normal.
I hope you will eventually report back how it went. 
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Mon 9-12-13 13:40; edited 1 time in total
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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There's a bit of snow showing on the forecasts tonight for Lofer, but the rest of the week is looking dry and sunny with overnight temperatures well below freezing, perfect for snowmaking if needs be. The long range is looking a bit more unsettled, in fact significant snow is showing around the 20th, the OP might just strike it very lucky...
P.S. Here's a link to the Lofer webcam, looking good right now...
http://www.bergfex.com/lofer/webcams/c5464/
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Poster: A snowHead
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Most of the time the temperature will be around freezing, which is ideal for snowmaking
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AFAIK a "wet bulb" temperature of -2 or below is needed for snow making. This forecast is looking a bit warm. http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/LofererAlmBahnen/6day/top
Snow-forecast relies on the GFS so is as reliable, or unreliable, as GFS. I find it pretty accurate so long as you just look at the next few days and don't expect accurate 9 day forecasts. A local forecast by an experienced meteorologist will be better - but still only a few days out, really. It's best to look at snow-forecast in conjunction with GFS because you then get a good feel for how reliable the forecast is (snow-forecast, unlike Chamonix Meteo, doesn't give any estimate of reliability).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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11 years of experience suggests to me that snow-forecast is more reliable for my neck of the woods than Meteo France.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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pam w, that is what I was referring to when expressing worries for snow making. I have found snow-forecast pretty good over the last few years - in fact it seems to follow Noza's lead from the weather thread.
The only thinkg I would say about it from last year is that it went through a phase where it seemed to consistently report snow about 5 days out that gradually diminished until it turned to sunshine. I think this was due to a high pressure that just refused to move away.
Mind you that could have been the year before though.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
The only thinkg I would say about it from last year is that it went through a phase where it seemed to consistently report snow about 5 days out that gradually diminished until it turned to sunshine
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well that would have been because the GFS model was doing the same thing. The big advantage of Noza's thread is that he uses other weather models too and can interpret and compare them - very useful and interesting. I can only understand GFS. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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pam w, interesting. Although is Met France only taking model runs and generating the forecasts automatically? (That said, Meteo France as Chamonix Meteo are pretty good for Grand Massif and Portes du Soleil).
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I worried once when I booked La Plagne the first week of the season. They had a huge dump a couple of days before then so much snow over the first week they could barely keep up to open the resort.
It was amazing.
Alcohol and board games could be the answer. Discover a love for hiking that you never knew you had or wanted. Marmot spotting. Replacing all the missing toilet seats in the resort. I don't know. Hope your snow turns up
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Well beginning to get a bit disheartened tbh. Snow is starting to look sparse on the webcam. And forecast for week ahead is rather dire.
Maybe time to come up with a plan b and start thinking so other resorts we could head to.
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2waterford, Are you looking at a different Lofer to some of us? I have just been to their website - lots of webcams showing snowy pistes, -4c, and cannons running! It could all melt before Christmas, but it is looking good for early December, and will probably be better in a couple of weeks.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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pam w, under a new name, looking at GFS models whatever the site with pretty graphics any more than three days ahead is all bollox, and even more so in the Mountains, where there is often a distinct difference between one side of a col and the other, classic example being the Col du Lautaret where there can be major differences between Serre Chevalier and La Grave.
I sort of study weather patterns and run a major site for wind and kitesurfers (since 1995) which used to be under the "weatherheads" banner (I still own the domain).
For sure if we're clutching at straws for snow making then it's all about freezing levels etc but what we're all interested in is a major dump.
If you look at http://www.anotherharddayattheoffice.co.uk/charts.html you'll see charts up to Sat 14th Dec and they are unfortunately together a very good example as to why there is no snow this week (blocking high).
What we need to see are a series of fronts and troughs over the Alps / Pyrenees slowly moving in much the same way that a series of Atlantic fronts bring wet n'windy weather to the UK.
That said we can get very excited at the prospect of windy weather for the weekend at the beginning of the week looking at the charts, then by Friday the low has tracked 150mls off track 
For what it's worth netweather.tv is quite good to back up the charts, but uses the same runs as many other GFS sites, but for the UK they have their own models.
Oh and always once out there in your resort etc , keep an eye on the rain radar!
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2waterford, wrote
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Well beginning to get a bit disheartened tbh. Snow is starting to look sparse on the webcam. And forecast for week ahead is rather dire.
Maybe time to come up with a plan b and start thinking so other resorts we could head to
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For goodness sake calm down! There is plenty of snow in Lofer - I was there today and checked. They're not running all of the lifts because there are insufficient guests at the moment to justify opening everything. OK, the forecast is not hopeful for new snow, but while the temperature might just creep above freezing in the sun for an hour, it's freezing cold in the shade and on most of the mountain. The snow cannons are blasting away, so unless a tropical heatwave arrives, there will be plenty of good runs to ski on.
I already gave you some suggestions for Plan B earlier in the thread. Whatever the weather gurus on here are speculating, I can see with my own eyes by looking out of my window that the pistes here in Saalbach are in great condition, the sky has been blue for the last couple of days, and all of the main lifts are running. Again, not everything is open as there are not sufficient people here at the moment to justify it - the areas that are closed are 'parallel' pistes and lifts where there are several runs down a certain area. In the meantime, they are making snow and moving it around to get the closed pistes ready for next week.
I see you've also found espri's threads with photos, which should be putting your mind at rest.
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FAQ
