 Poster: A snowHead
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| jbob wrote: |
Chamonix, So here it is. It may get colder, it may snow, a bit. |
[Comes in knowing nothing] - stupid question alert, where can I find out what all that jazz means - and what's that called? 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Dunny, I asked this on another thread- I'll try here too!
Are the wiggly lines across the centre the 'ensemble'; being a collection of available chicken-bone predictions? Do we snowies get excited when they are close to being a fat corridor across the page, rather than a spider's web all disagreeing? If yes-ish (well done me!)... what's the bottom row of lines telling me? And what are the 'P' numbers on the y axis?
Perhaps someone will inform both of us!
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| Dunny#1 wrote: |
| jbob wrote: |
Chamonix, So here it is. It may get colder, it may snow, a bit. |
[Comes in knowing nothing] - stupid question alert, where can I find out what all that jazz means - and what's that called? |
It's called 'clinging on to hope' and can be found in this thread here....
http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Charliegolf, the GFS ensemble is made up of 20 different runs plus the control (thick blue) and operational (thick green). The P refers to each of the separate runs. Small differences in initial input are reflected in the increasing disparity over time itself reflecting uncertainty. A pattern may start to become clear if it repeats over several different runs (00z, 06z etc) over a period of time. This is considerable more likely to appear 5 to 7 days out (with a lot of uncertainty over the detail which will sharpen as it gets closer).
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06z not bad.
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Doh 
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Thanks Noza - fog thinning!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Thanks Mick- fog thinning!
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06z not bad for where ? the alps as a whole....or more specifically for my selfish interests..Tarentaise ?? please
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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when i go to sleep at night, all i see are lines. So many lines....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| stefoy4me wrote: |
| 06z not bad for where ? the alps as a whole....or more specifically for my selfish interests..Tarentaise ?? please |
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+1 Tarentaise
Edit, beaten by seconds
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Rob Mackley, great page, added to the ever growing list of bookmarks. Nice to run the mouse down the x axis and see the rain/snow sweep in. If accurate, it suggests PdS will see snow in 27-33 hours from now? I will be up on thurs/friday to see if these colourful pixels actually produce snow.
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Tue 8-12-15 13:36; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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One of the largest temperature differences in the FI I have seen on the 06Z - more consensus for some precipitation is a good thing.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I don't understand any of this.
Just trying to work out if I should rebook my Christmas week. Already rebooked my week starting this Sunday...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@HeidiAmsterdam, whats the point of booking early season trips in advance if you are going to cancel if conditions aren't perfect? Surely you are wasting peoples time and potentially causing them problems of a vacant week by leaving it so late....
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My bar isn't perfect.
I wanted to be in Sauze - where there isn't little to no snow, and hasn't been cold enough to make sufficient snow.
I don't like canceling, but I like it even less to spend a bunch of money to lap around on one ski run for 7 days straight.
I am really hoping something falls in Piemonte area - because I am really looking forward to being there.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| HeidiAmsterdam wrote: |
I don't understand any of this.
Just trying to work out if I should rebook my Christmas week. Already rebooked my week starting this Sunday... |
I'll save you some time. Nobody has the answer you're looking for!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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My advice would be to go on holiday and enjoy yourself - some years you will be lucky in the early season and have outstanding conditions some years less so. I worried about last new years week and then on Boxing day Snowmageddon happened and there was "too much" snow. I have my fingers crossed for you, but if it's going to cause this much worry for you then I suggest you should book later in the season.
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@HeidiAmsterdam, If you have the option to cancel then it is up to you whether you do so and perfectly within your rights (people arguing otherwise are incorrect). Usually I hear people on here say the snow is great when it is not but then after new snow arrives they suddenly say it wasn't good but now it is  !
I'm off to Alpe d'Huez for Christmas, as things stand it will probably be pretty poor but I'm still hopeful of snow-fall from the middle of next week to help conditions. The FI predictions have been pushed back the last week (and amounts reduced for Alpe d'Huez). If you or anyone else can easily take a week in January (or later in the year) this looks at the moment to be a better option than hoping on Christmas week (even at a good price). Parts of Switzerland seem to have the best snow at the moment so that is probably the safest bet for anything in the short-term. Anyway they're my thoughts...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I have stressed a bit, but end of the day, I'm going to Meribel Jan 2nd, to a nice hotel with my wife, daughter (who I see too rarely cos she's away) and son in law. We'll get some skiing- maybe tons. Last year I was not a super-informed (!) snowhead- ignorance was bliss- I thought the slopes were great, nothing to compare it to. Skiied every minute every day. I'm sure it'll be fine.
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@Millom, there is no such thing as an FI prediction. That far out you are getting a huge range of different predictions from each of the different ensembles which shift from run to run. If you take anything at that range as a prediction or a forecast you will almost certainly be disappointed. There were doubtless other members of the ensemble set showing different outcomes at the point you are referring too. They were also possible outcomes. What you are looking is a repeated pattern that picks up support and is sustained as it gets nearer.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Charliegolf, yep if you are skiing it and enjoying it the rest counts for little. You ski the snow you have.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Millom, I agree.
Don't like creating bad karma, for the sake of it. And without sound unsympathetic, if you are business owner in the ski industry, it's part of the game. I don't feel co-dependent towards a business owner, such that I should spend my time and money on holiday and feel like I've wasted it.
That said, I'm not cancelling over a few silly centimeters of snow.
Sadly, I am school holiday bound. It's part of the price I pay to have kids  Non regrets there.
Hoping for the best, as I am a repeat customer for where I've booked Christmas Week. I am looking forward to it, and I hope there is skiing to be had....and really thinking, snow has to happen before New Years week...
And next year, I may have a different plan. Just may do it last minute all the way.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Gaza, I think it's problem with the wetter site.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@noza, what are your thoughts then on how the middle of December will pan out? What do you think is the *most* likely scenario?
If we take the chart above as an example, can we draw the conclusion that there is likely some snow fall somewhere in the alps around the period 15th-24th Dec or are you just saying ignore this completely as it has no basis (but then why is it on the charts)? I've been looking just at general trends in the temps and prec levels on the middle/right half of the graph.
Is the high to the South affecting both temp and prec? What are your predictions as to the state of the high over the next week?
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Poster: A snowHead
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| duncansarmy wrote: |
| Dunny#1 wrote: |
| jbob wrote: |
Chamonix, So here it is. It may get colder, it may snow, a bit. |
[Comes in knowing nothing] - stupid question alert, where can I find out what all that jazz means - and what's that called? |
It's called 'clinging on to hope' and can be found in this thread here....
http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852 |
Wonderful, thank you
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Millom wrote: |
| @noza, what are your thoughts then on how the middle of December will pan out? What do you think is the *most* likely scenario? |
The most likely scenario through to mid December for the French Alps is poor snow (note I didn't say skiiing) below 2000 meters and probably not improving much until the end of the month. A bit like last year only the Southern Alps haven't been spared this time.
But it could dump a meter on Monday. 50cm at least are needed to really improve conditions at the moment, more would be good.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@davidof "But it could dump a meter on Monday".
need a lot to change between now and then for that to happen.............forecasts don t give much indication of that unfortunately!!
we live in hope
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@davidof,
That seems to be the most sensible thing said today apart from the it could dump a meter on Monday. If it does, I'll be there...and if doesn't, I'll still be there.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Millom, the next week looks fairly set with temperatures a bit above average though there does look like being brief interludes of colder weather tomorrow and next Tuesday which could bring small amounts of fresh snow in places.
Beyond that it's hard to have any real confidence. The 06z would suggest a colder and more unsettled (snowy) run up to Christmas in the Alps. But you need to see that pattern sustained and at present it is tending to default to milder weather holding in place.
If the high pressure across Europe pulls back towards the Azores you'd see colder and snowier weather pushing into the Alps and on the current set up that could lead to heavy snowfall in the northern Alps at least. But for now the jet stream is just buckling as it hits that high pressure and spinning north.
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| HeidiAmsterdam wrote: |
@davidof,
That seems to be the most sensible thing said today apart from the it could dump a meter on Monday. If it does, I'll be there...and if doesn't, I'll still be there. |
and it only needs a few cm of fresh on man made snow to make a difference to the quality; which we may see over the next few days.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@Millom, the next week looks fairly set with temperatures a bit above average though there does look like being brief interludes of colder weather tomorrow and next Tuesday which could bring small amounts of fresh snow in places.
Beyond that it's hard to have any real confidence. The 06z would suggest a colder and more unsettled (snowy) run up to Christmas in the Alps. But you need to see that pattern sustained and at present it is tending to default to milder weather holding in place.
If the high pressure across Europe pulls back towards the Azores you'd see colder and snowier weather pushing into the Alps and on the current set up that could lead to heavy snowfall in the northern Alps at least. But for now the jet stream is just buckling as it hits that high pressure and spinning north. |
So basically, it's a Hollywood Suspense motion picture.... and no one knows how it ends on Christmas or New Year.
You all just read those charts - it's all Greek to me.
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@davidof, yes I think that is a good point. Ignoring off-piste, skiing on some (small) fresh snow on top of man-made on-piste is significantly better than just skiing on the man-made snow or very old real snow.
@noza, so what would be the tell tail signs of the jet stream starting to get the better of the high pressure as a precursor to this showing up as more agreement on the charts? Could snowier weather still fall at altitude in the Alps with the current setup even if the high remains where it is or does its' very existence then force the unsettled weather further north (as you seem to suggest)?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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12z GFS showing some positive signs and would bring snow in FI (particularly around 17-19 December), but still a bit mild.
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FAQ
