 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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waynos, at the end of the day, if you don't believe in any of the forecasts then simply look out the window and you've got the correct forecast for the next few minutes - it was good enough for the Victorians after all.
I'm reminded of that mythical weather forecasting tool the Ogwen Weather Stone at Llyn Idwal in North Wales. This treasured lump of rock hangs outside the Ogwen Cottage Mountain Resuce Post in a popular but wild area of snowdonia and merely by observing it for a short while one can deduce much about current conditions with the aid of the expanatory notes. (i.e. 'Stone is wet - raining', 'Stone swinging back & forth - windy', 'Stone white - snowing', 'Stone bouncing up & down - earthquake'
the ever-so-subtle message from those 'nails' Welshmen is that the weather can change very quickly in the mountains - be prepared for everything...
Anyway - apologies for the interruption - back to discussions about whether 12 or 14 mm of snow will fall on morzine in time for so-and-so's holiday this weekend 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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red 27, Surely you mean cm not mm  All those wizzing off this weekend will start panicking big time!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Scooter, cm, mm, M, ", ft - who can say? As always, we sit and wait a crumb of info from the CarlBri table just as the hungry puppy dog waits for titbits from it's master.
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| Quote: |
| the experts keep telling us not to beleive the forecast as it's all a guessing game. |
waynos, that's not what they are telling us. It's not guessing. But neither does anyone "know" what the weather will be. It's a matter of probability, based on feeding a huge amount of data into a computer. Ideally it is then interpreted by a human forecaster with enormous knowledge and skill, but that's not what snow-forecast etc are doing. You can get your own private forecasting from the Met Office in the UK, for a price, and it's brilliant ("if you can get yourselves 20 miles further south before mid-day you'll avoid the worst of the gale") but not cheap.
It's a great pity, I think, that our forecasts in the UK are generally not accompanied by any statistics of probability. In the US it;s routine to be told "there's a 60% chance of rain". The Chamonix meteo reports have an indication of confidence (e.g "confidence 4/5 till Tuesday, then 2/5". ) 2/5 is not really worth paying much attention to....
I can understand why the people who spend time putting thoughtful weather stuff on here get fed up when people ask "is it going to snow in Uberuntermiddelberg in the middle of next month". If you read this kind of thread attentively over some months, you get the drift. You don't need a degree in meteorology, but you do need to be willing to invest a certain amount of effort. I have spent a lot of time studying sailing-related weather in the UK. I know what to expect the wind to do when a cold front passes overhead. I've little idea about Alpine weather and am very grateful for people who have acquired that knowledge, and are willing to share it.
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pam w, I'm with you. I'm not bad at doing Marseilles to Menton 1-3 days out ( even if I say so myself), and many others think so ; but I need to be 'there' as well as use the models - and even then I can't do the micro-climates at all. How these guys do the mountains to such an amazing level of detail is beyond me.
Doesn't Meteo France put probabilitiies on all its detailed forecasts ?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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rayscoops, Yes, I know...but how much?...........I'll get my coat 
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Using the 'looking out the window' method I can confirm that it has been snowing here in Les Gets for half an hour.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Snowing - just about - here too, but temperatures rather warmer than I expected. Barely freezing at 1500m, but freezing level will fall as the "pertubation" goes through. Where's the "fingers crossed" smilie....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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snowzebra, not doing anything except grey in Cham/Les Houches... 
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Just grey in Gstaad as well ....
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brian
brian
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pam w, David Murdoch, Agenterre, have a little patience, snow on the way this evening. 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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brian, as always, the patient faithful have been rewarded 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Snow has now stopped . Hopeful for more this evening.
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brian
brian
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brian, once a front like that hits a land mass the size of the alps, does it stall or does it generally just continue and drop it's precipitation and disappear? I'm guessing it'd need to pass over an area of water to build up again?
sorry for my lack of knowledge
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brian
brian
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shoogly, fronts form at temperature boundaries. So in a cold front (like the one approaching the alps just now) there is relatively warm air ahead of the front and colder air behind it. The cold air undercuts the warm air (because it's more dense) so the warm air is forced upwards where it cools and moisture in it condenses, hence clouds and if there's enough, rain. The mountains enhance the effects because the air also has to rise to get over them (orographic lifting).
However, most of the front is above the level of most of the mountains, so I don't think they get slowed down that much.
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brian, even my super slow internet connection could see that front approaching; thanks. I shall tune in every now and then and see how it's going. Might even look out of the window, later!
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brian, as well as tonights decent top up its looking ok for Monday don't you think. These two 'dumps' could well freshen things up nicely with the dry but very cold spell coming if FI is believable.
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I put the car in the garage a few hours ago, was afraid I might have put the mockers on it.....but it's just started snowing here, very quietly. We are in what the French call the "préalpes".
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| pam w wrote: |
Any thoughts on this cloud, which appeared over Mont Blanc prior to the snowfall about a week ago. There were similar smaller clouds over other peaks. |
I knew i'd seen it somewhere before:
This was in Avoriaz, last Monday... the day before we had the snowfall on Tuesday. Must have been a sign?
p.s. sorry my photography skills aren't quite up to yours pamw
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Just started to snow in Les Arcs.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Just started snowing lightly in Schaldming, Austria. Local forecast has downgraded forecast snow to a few showers, but we're see.
Personally I think it will snow from Wed through to Sunday this week as that's when I'm back in the UK.
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snowing and blowing here, and been falling all night as far as I know. Too nasty to go out and find out how much might have fallen - and the extent of drifting would make it difficult to be accurate anyway. But it's significant.
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You know it makes sense.
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| pam w wrote: |
| snowing and blowing here, and been falling all night as far as I know. Too nasty to go out and find out how much might have fallen - and the extent of drifting would make it difficult to be accurate anyway. But it's significant. |
Thanks Pam, great to know!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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4-6 inches overnight here, still snowing now but streaks of blue sky appearing. Which may stay, or may not...
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Poster: A snowHead
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Can anyone shed any light on the fact that ski club are reporting high winds for Chamonix on Monday. How is it looking from Tuesday onwards with reguards winds and the chance of them being strong enough to effect lift opening etc
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Renry, snow-forecast has pretty high winds on Monday, and they're not likely to be too wrong about that; wind is easier to predict than precipitation amounts (which snow-forecast once again hugely under-predicted last night. They forecast 12, we had almost 30). I don't know what kind of winds would be needed to close lifts in Chamonix - maybe ask on the Chamonix thread? The locals will know. Later in the week wind speeds look low; shouldn't be any problem, and the snow should be great.
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brian
brian
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Renry,
"MONDAY FEBRUARY 04
Sunny spells with fœhn wind in the morning - disturbance crossing over in the afternoon
SKY CONDITIONS (cloud - sunshine) : morning cloud with sunny spells - mostly cloudy or overcast in the afternoon - period of sunshine close to 30%.
PRECIPITATION : starting up towards the middle of the day - light or locally moderate - rain-snow limit towards 1000 m.
WIND - aloft : SW strong to gale force - gusty fœhn wind in the morning.
TEMPERATURE : rising lows - dropping highs."
From cham meteo.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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brian, we never doubted you for a minute, just enjoyed those lovely warm and sunny days knowing the snow would follow. Lovely fresh snow today; especially when down the neck! A perfect day on the snow, crowned by watching Wales beat England at Twickenham
(Edited to add gloat).
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Radio silence on the weather thread???? Is everybody out playing in the powder???????????? DId it arrive????How much and where??????
Is there another thread that everybody else has gone to without telling me??????
I need help urgently - 3 days to go....
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kewhoward, certainly looks snowy on many webcams, I think everyone is making the most of it all hence the silence!!! 3 days to go? You'll be absolutely fine with the new snow, have a great time
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| kewhoward wrote: |
Is everybody out playing in the powder???????????? DId it arrive????How much and where??????
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I was out playing in the powder last week. It arrived in force (and more on the way). 62" (that's 157cm) in 5 days in the Canyons, Utah. Stopped snowing on Friday night so we could fly home on Saturday, and the next storm was due in on Saurday night.
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brian
brian
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FAQ
