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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
18z has snow in Alps on 15 and 17 December. Before that possibly a few flakes on 09 December, but nothing of any substance.

Temperatures slowly falling to something closer to seasonal over the next seven days. But no sudden onset of wintry conditions in the next week.

@pam w, not sure the skiing in Austria is on purely artificial snow!?

As for conditions more generally they seem to be OK in the northern Alps at altitude given how exceptionally mild and dry November has been. Far far less good in the southern Alps.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@emwmarine, It's just places I haven't been before, so hard to really know what the experience will be like.

Not complaining - it'll be fine. At this 5 seconds, it looks like I'll end up in Tignes or Val D'Isere - snow conditions good enough and within budget.

Switzerland is just a bit too dear unless I self cater, and I can't be done with that this time.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just skied 40Cm of fresh untracked today at a ski resort in Washington state. Sounds like Whistler and Mt Baker are in line for a meter of snow this week. Tahoe also is going to do well with this current weather pattern. Of course I booked for the Alps Christmas week before the current weather pattern came into focus. So, I could very well be regretting my decision but won't know that for 2 more weeks. Would be painfully expensive to cancel now. At least I have been able to get 4 really nice days skiing so far. 3 of those being powder days, and it's what? Dec. 6th... Very Happy
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@Toadman, if you used miles, cancellation charges are nominal, no?

I'd be there if I could have convinced my husband...with the added advantage of spending Christmas with my parents and brothers which has happened in decades.

Hoping you make good on your promise to bring that weather pattern this way.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@HeidiAmsterdam I can't imagine that it will stay dry the whole month of December. I'll hop on that jet stream of moist air that has been flowing through the Pacific West Coast and ride it all the way to the Alps!
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@nozawaonsen, not suggesting snow in Austria entirely artificial but some recent reports of good skiing even where it is. Eg Saalbach.

A range of reports of good skiing on mix of artificial and natural snow in northern French Alps and Austria. EK has 70 runs open and with the glacier good skiing is guaranteed for mid December. Christmas? That's in the lap of the snow gods for many places.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Agree Christmas week is too far away to panic about.

I'll take that as it comes, just want to get the week of 13 December right.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Interesting side note LWD Tirol quotes TIWAG (Tirolean hydropower company) as saying there was a terrific spike in electricity consumption on 24 November. 23,63 GWh a historical high for Austria. They attribute this partly to the cold, but also because the mass switching on of snow cannons across resorts nationwide.
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Quote:

some recent reports of good skiing even where it is. Eg Saalbach.


Higher up it'll be natural.
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Toadman wrote:
Just skied 40Cm of fresh untracked today at a ski resort in Washington state. Sounds like Whistler and Mt Baker are in line for a meter of snow this week. Tahoe also is going to do well with this current weather pattern. Of course I booked for the Alps Christmas week before the current weather pattern came into focus. So, I could very well be regretting my decision but won't know that for 2 more weeks. Would be painfully expensive to cancel now. At least I have been able to get 4 really nice days skiing so far. 3 of those being powder days, and it's what? Dec. 6th... Very Happy


We occasionally cross the pond and xc ski at Mazama so I keep an eye on their conditions and I see that this year they opened the trails the earliest yet so I know it's great over there already
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Just had email from couple running chalet in Tignes: "Fabulous conditions in espace killy, from a happy chalet girl & boy!" snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Jonpim, Those flogging chalet / apartment beds often seem to have a very positive view on conditions within their local area.

It's a curious anomaly I've noticed over the years...
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
red 27 wrote:
@Jonpim, Those flogging chalet / apartment beds often seem to have a very positive view on conditions within their local area.

It's a curious anomaly I've noticed over the years...


i did think that but presumed he knows them personally!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Jonpim, The definition of fabulous is the key. Today, in Tignes we had sunshine all day and light winds which is fabulous for the time of year, meanwhile the snow is good above 2300m variable from there to 1850m. So overall - good? wink
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Tatman's Tours wrote:
Quote:

some recent reports of good skiing even where it is. Eg Saalbach.


Higher up it'll be natural.


Very much doubt it.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@snowheads68, well you'd be wrong, I skied a mix of natural snow (lovely and squeaky) and artificial snow (rock hard but interesting) at both Wagrain/Alpendorf on Saturday 28th and Reiteralm on Sunday 29th November. We have had dustings of the real stuff since then as well. Neither location is particularly high either wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Samerberg Sue wrote:
@snowheads68, well you'd be wrong, I skied a mix of natural snow (lovely and squeaky) and artificial snow (rock hard but interesting) at both Wagrain/Alpendorf on Saturday 28th and Reiteralm on Sunday 29th November. We have had dustings of the real stuff since then as well. Neither location is particularly high either wink


Mix of natural and artificial isn't natural.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
At the top it was primarily natural, the proportions changed as we skied down the mountain, simples really! rolling eyes
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Samerberg Sue wrote:
At the top it was primarily natural


So it was a mix?

Lots happened since the 28th as well.
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@snowheads68, ??
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Chamonix, So here it is. It may get colder, it may snow, a bit.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Jonpim wrote:
Just had email from couple running chalet in Tignes: "Fabulous conditions in espace killy, from a happy chalet girl & boy!" snowHead


This pic from today would suggest they are correct! Certainly more fabulous than a dank grey Leeds!

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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
oh... that looks like something to look forward to!
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It was certainly a wonderful spring day today, 14C in the shade and the cafe terraces were rammed. FL still around 2200m but we're promised 1-2cm of snow from 1400 m. on Wednesday and maybe the same on Friday night. That said forecast through to Christmas is for warm weather.
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I still would rather be in the alps then in an UK/Jersey office....lol
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ECM takes it cold from 16 December as does GFS.



GFS op run then goes milder, but a good number of the ensembles keep it cold.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

some recent reports of good skiing even where it is. Eg Saalbach.


This video was recorded in Saalbach yesterday:
http://youtube.com/v/W2-i3QJLHUI
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nice vid, he seems to know what he's doing, apart from the choonage
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Tatman's Tours lovely!! Wish I could ski like that!

Normally I'd be getting my case packed, ready for my first hol this weekend, but I'll just be watching the webcams instead....
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
18z gets a big thumbs up!! Fingers crossed its the same or better in 6hours!!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@HoneyBunny, Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
AthersT wrote:
18z gets a big thumbs up!! Fingers crossed its the same or better in 6hours!!


seems much worse to me, continuing mild Sad
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?


WTF is the Ops Run doing at the end! Very Happy Shocked Laughing
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@Gaza, luckily it's a complete outrunner.

There's quite a split from mid month although that's to be expected. On the plus side you can read that as lack of confidence it will get milder on the less plus side it's also a lack of confidence it will get cooler.
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@nozawaonsen, it did make me laugh though as it was so much of an outlier. Very Happy Very Happy

On the 00Z for the EK area the slight ripple indicating some precipitation for tomorrow has all but vanished so it looks like no top-up for the World Cup this weekend.

Last nights Weather for the Week Ahead on the BBC forecast the Jetstream to stay well to the north of the UK next week.

I'm very glad I decided to booked Tignes for this weekend as the conditions there are looking reasonable.
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WRF has most of Wednesday's snowfall (not a huge amount either way) falling in Switzerland and Austria.

0600 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=36#model

0900 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=39#model

1200 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=42#model

1500 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=45#model

1800 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=48#model
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, The 18Z last night was predicting a large breakdown in weather beginning 15-17th onwards until the end of the run - at least for the Eastern Austrian Alps - its been toned down somewhat now but thats the FI's perogative so not getting too excited!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Follow this thread intently every year and enjoy all the debate, discussion.
Quick question though, what is FI Puzzled
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@Mick8417, Fantasy Island

It's a technical term.
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Mick8417 wrote:
Follow this thread intently every year and enjoy all the debate, discussion.
Quick question though, what is FI Puzzled



Fantasy Island
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