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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Even if there is not much precipitation temps look like dropping a lot over the next week which would mean snowmaking would resume I imagine.
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Minion1980 wrote:
Even if there is not much precipitation temps look like dropping a lot over the next week which would mean snowmaking would resume I imagine.


Do you mind me asking where you are getting that source from?
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@geoffers, you may have been teaching egg sucking, but I found that link fascinating, no wonder it's so hard to call.
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duncansarmy wrote:
Minion1980 wrote:
Even if there is not much precipitation temps look like dropping a lot over the next week which would mean snowmaking would resume I imagine.


Do you mind me asking where you are getting that source from?


I was just looking here at Les Arcs, I probably shouldn't have made such a sweeping generalisation for the whole alps!

http://www.meteoexploration.com/forecasts/Les-Arcs/
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Early season conditions are approaching these of the last season. Still better but just. Two more weeks of this sunshine and no snow and it will be December 2014 all over again. +15 degrees on my terrace in the shady corner.
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duncansarmy wrote:


That's interesting Pam. I wonder if cannons have been working in Morzine? I presumed it's been too warm but didn't think about them running through the night.


In short, no. There's no sign of them making any snow on Pleney at least. They may well have made some elsewhere but I've neither seen or heard any cannons.

There has been so little rain this autumn that I imagine the reservoirs are quite low.
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Oh no. It never rains but it p. . . . . . - no that can't be right!
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just feeling more desperate by the moment.

I'm going to ski starting December 13th, I just hope its going to be good.

Today is my last chance to book to the U.S.... but husband is against it. Twisted Evil He has to work, and the time zones will reek havoc on getting the work done he needs to do. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil
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So while on piste skiing was acceptable above 1500 meters things are not so great for lower slopes. Temperatures have hardly dipped below 0C for the last week at 2000 meters. Ideally you need -4C for snowmaking although it is possible to make snow at higher temperatures in dryer air (even at +20C with special snow makers but ski resorts don't use these).

This is the remains of the snow from 10 days ago at 1000 meters (altitude where I'm standing). Even in the 1500-1800 meter range new snow is needed soon, or colder weather for snow making.

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@davidof, where is that photo from?
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I skied around chatel's Plaine Dranse area today and it was fine, all the way down to 1200m. Pistes were hard but well covered. The snow cover isn't thick so who knows if it will last until temperatures drop, but for now, it's nice piste skiing with blue skies.
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@chrisb,
It looks like Sauze at a guess.
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If it drops to around freezing on xmas week I might be making my own snow in the garden in Essex.


http://youtube.com/v/Eo1sdeHR4Ug
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Demonstrates nicely the immense valley to valley variability
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@never summer, Conditions in Tignes are way better than last year - at this time we had Double M down from the Glacier and that was it. All of Tignes above 2100m is open just about (they never open the Brev sector this early so can't comment on conditions down there but the snow down into Val 'Isere via La Daille (1850m) is fine as they have put down a lot of artificial.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
^^will they still be better if the current weather lasts another 10-14 days though? I'm not saying it's not better this season that at the same time last season, but I see the difference shrinking.
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kind of nobbly blue cold front thing penetrating into Austria & Switzerland from the east midweek
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It is a battle of the glass half empty versus glass half full types. Let's collectively send good vibes to the snow Gods! Arguing that it might get worse than last year doesn't really make anything better. I am headed out on the 23rd, and while I hope for great conditions, at least I will be in the Alps!
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chrisb wrote:
@davidof, where is that photo from?


One of the Chartreuse resorts. I was surprised how little snow was there. A lot melted over the weekend despite indifferent weather, probably down to the warm southerly breeze that we didn't feel in the valleys. There is snow cover down to about 1250m on those N.E. facing slopes. As I said on Friday the 7 Laux still had reasonable natural snow at 1550 meters but things are finely balanced at the moment. Colder temperatures and more snow is urgently required above 1200 meters. You can lop 100 to 200 meters off these figures for the Haute-Savoie.
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boofit wrote:
Apples and oranges, I think. The first map is ECM. The second is GFS.


True but.....

Original



24 Hours later

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well, that's depressing news
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
ECM 12Z pushes it further south again
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=1&ech=162&size=0
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Tignes web site, which is usually correct, has snow for Wednesday morning Puzzled
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@stewart woodward, yes, there seems to be a small disturbance, very local, resulting in a less than 5cm. But better than a poke in the eye.
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@Gaza, Those maps are a week out, and are going to shift back and forth. It's splitting hairs, at this point.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
A shortage of precipitation in the Alps perhaps, no shortage here in the UK though.

Potentially another 100mm this week, worse scenario. You wouldn't bet against it though. El ninio winter ?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449705600&regionName=yh


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Sun 6-12-15 22:27; edited 1 time in total
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boofit wrote:
@Gaza, Those maps are a week out, and are going to shift back and forth. It's splitting hairs, at this point.


I know that but what they are showing is a lack of any strong indicator that things are cooling and precip increasing. The have been quite consistent for the last few weeks; showing above average temps, then a short sharp cold spell with snow and then warming again.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

what they are showing is a lack of any strong indicator that things are cooling and precip increasing

I'd say there are indicators that precipitation is increasing and temperatures are looking near average - which is a lot different from FL over 3000m for days at a time, as we've just had. Though with a considerable spread of possibiliies.

Once you are looking a week or more ahead it's not wise to get too cast down - or excited - about it! An emotional roller coaster, if you're not careful. wink
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Sadly, I am one week out - so this bad news is becoming real, I had hoped for better, and in fact, how could lightening strike twice?

I had a great deal on a place in Sestriere, but after having looked at the web cams, that will be cancelled here shortly. Giving it a last chance, as I can only cancel once... but - hum-ho, back to the drawing board.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Quote:

how could lightening strike twice?

it's not that unusual to have fairly dodgy snow cover before Christmas. And it's not that dodgy, either. Quite a few places are open early. And the rest is just forecasts - unreliable more than three days out.

and besides, a place which has been struck by lightning is as likely as any other to get struck again. wink
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The majority of ski resorts in France are not scheduled to open properly for nearly two weeks.
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pam w wrote:
Quote:

how could lightening strike twice?

it's not that unusual to have fairly dodgy snow cover before Christmas. And it's not that dodgy, either. Quite a few places are open early. And the rest is just forecasts - unreliable more than three days out.

and besides, a place which has been struck by lightning is as likely as any other to get struck again. wink


Following that logic, I should book at Tahoe or Whistler for Christmas 2016.

October snow was good, November left something to be desired, then the warm temps crushed last hopes... That said, I will book on Wednesday or Thursday next week, and until then monitoring very closely.

Gladly next year, the Christmas hols start a week later - and I think I will go to the US. Get myself an epic pass, buy an transatlantic ticket, then choose Summit County - Utah or Tahoe depending on conditions... which is of no help for now.
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Tahoe, Whistler, Summit County, SLC....none of these would be guaranteed great Christmas cover, either. December is December. Can't change the fact that it is early season.
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Quote:

Following that logic

what logic? October snow (in my neck of the northern French Alps, I was there) was fleeting, as usual, and melted (apart from a few very sheltered spots) in 36 hours. We had 50 cms at 2000m in November, which is excellent and 45cms of that is left. The slopes have been open this weekend, which is comparatively rare. A good many other places have been open for some early skiing too, some just for the weekend. Also reports of good skiing in Austria, even on entirely artificial snow. And it's only 6 December.

A last minute mid December week's skiing can be great, but it's the beginning of the season and great - or even good - conditions are a bonus. It's like booking for the last weeks of the season, in April - can be great, but you don't want to rely on it, in middling altitude sort of places.

There's still every reason to hope that many places will have decent cover on piste by Christmas. Only super-optimists expect good off piste skiing at Christmas, in the majority of resorts.
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HeidiAmsterdam wrote:


Following that logic, I should book at Tahoe or Whistler for Christmas 2016.

.


No guarantee of good snow in Dec anywhere in the world, that's the reason it's called early season!! Wasn't whistler bare last Xmas or the one before??
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@kitenski, yes. And lest we forget the conditions during the Olympics... what a drama!

It was a bit tongue and cheek... just frustrated this extra week of school hols is in December and not January Twisted Evil
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HeidiAmsterdam wrote:
pam w wrote:
Quote:

how could lightening strike twice?

it's not that unusual to have fairly dodgy snow cover before Christmas. And it's not that dodgy, either. Quite a few places are open early. And the rest is just forecasts - unreliable more than three days out.

and besides, a place which has been struck by lightning is as likely as any other to get struck again. wink


Following that logic, I should book at Tahoe or Whistler for Christmas 2016.

October snow was good, November left something to be desired, then the warm temps crushed last hopes... That said, I will book on Wednesday or Thursday next week, and until then monitoring very closely.

Gladly next year, the Christmas hols start a week later - and I think I will go to the US. Get myself an epic pass, buy an transatlantic ticket, then choose Summit County - Utah or Tahoe depending on conditions... which is of no help for now.



Last year snow in Utah was very low so you might have a long haul flight and still be complaining. On another thread people have suggested to you high altitude resorts like Tigne and Val Thorens which have snow, and there are others in Austria etc so I don't see what your problem is for next week.
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Flying over the Jura into GVA today it was remarkably white for the time of year. Chamonix is opening early for the first time since (I think) 2009.

What's the fecking problem?
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Well we're heading to Andorra an hour after the eldest breaks up... And the holiday weekend vids look great from this weekend... Can't wait... snowHead
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