 Poster: A snowHead
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brian, thanks.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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snowangel., I like your forecasts as we'll be in claviere on the 23rd 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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brian, carled, Thanks for all the info - masmith, I think you should pay up for the premium service and shoogly, I think you should be setting up the direct debit. (I'll be asking about Grand Massif from 7th Feb but I've learnt enough not to even inquire before next Monday - also I'm hoping for a discount the the usual rates) 
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carled, is the text you quoted earlier up to date? it refers to the thick red, blue and grey lines. not being funny but is the important one not the unmentioned green line?
my understanding of the lines is:
thick red - average from the last 30 or so years.
thick grey - average of all outputs
thick green - new high resolution forecast (the one considered most 'accurate')
thick blue - a control run (lower resolution forecast based on same input as thick green, but on older software - until recently would have been considered most 'accurate')
i waded through the entire GFS for beginners thread and it is a bit lengthy - a lot of discussion as well as fact - i wonder would it be worth condensing it down to a one post stickie?
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brian
brian
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rogg, yes, that's correct I think. Apart from the older software bit. Their latest and greatest set of equations will be used for all runs.
Plus to clarify, the red line is the average over the period 1971-2000.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Fruity, I don't think there's any need to work out how to interpret all those models and lines. I certainly haven't. Just read what the people who have the knowledge and patience to do so have to tell us. It's much easier! I look at snow-forecast but am not daft enough to believe exactly how many centimetres of snow they say are going to fall. You'd only have to watch one of those sites over several weeks/months to realise that - the forecast amounts have fluctuated wildly over the past few days. It's not rocket science to work out that a whole lot of very different forecasts, from the same site, can't ALL be right! If you keep watching them, and keep observing the actual weather as well, you do get a good feel for the "fit" without having to worry about the way the models actually work. There are some good (and some awful) amateur meteorologists on the french website skipass.com - it's worth reading their meteo threads, if you read French. I expect there are other fora too, for other countries. It's good entertainment watching the highs and lows of hysteria and despair.
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Thanks Pam.........
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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11 more sleeps as Morzine beckons. One question........how often have we observed forecasts run cooler or am I at a hightened point of paranoia? Was looking like a great cool spell for 9th Feb now looking a bit warm!  Will it wont it? Would just like to ski this year on crispy chilled snow? Yes plenty of snow I know but I want it all!
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If the GFS system has got ANY decency about it at all then it will currently be hiding in the corner looking embarrassed at its recent performance. What was looking like Siberia moving into the Scottish highlands and even England for a while has now turned into "whoops, someone spilled a couple of ice-cubes on the kitchen floor. Anyone else feeling a bit chilly - ooh, look, a goose-bump!"
OK, I may be slightly over-dramaticizing things here, but basically the good ol' sensible ECMWF model and the fax boys (humans, you see?) got it right and the GFS went out boozing again then came back in screaming about polar lows and huge low pressure systems and screaming winds and icy vortexes and, and... then the ECMWF got a wet haddock and slapped the GFS about its face, which then took another look today and went, "oh sod. sorry about that folks... Hey, look, it'll still be a bit chilly you know..." and now it's kind of sulking in the corner and doesn't know what to do with itself. Therefore the obvious response is to behave like a sullen teenager and deliberately show extra-warm temperatures for the next week or so just to show it can be all grown up and intelligent, like...
It'll be alright after it finishes listening to death metal music and has a chocolate milkshake.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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good,im flying out on sunday from birmingham and was getting worried as it looked like more than a cm was going to fall and cause havoc,fingers crossed it wont
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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carled, where did you learn to write like that? It's mad and brilliant, honestly.
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You know it makes sense.
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Hurtle, no idea. I'm one of those oddities that science can't pigeon hole. No, not a transsexual hermaphrodite, a techie person that has a creative bent too. I dunno really. I just write how my brain works. Then I go back and edit it so it makes at least a modicum of sense. Then I drink more wine and realise it made more sense the first time... and repeat until squiffy.
lisach, 'course you can disagree. I'm sure the early Christians in the Roman empire disagreed with being flung into the lion's pit too... You have, of course, selected the "minimum" 2m temps which always look a bit more sexy than the maximum ones! Yeah, there's going to be snow around. That's beyond question. Just not *that* much and not for *that* long and the GFS, I feel, is in need of a bit of a spanking as it seems to be progging in a bit of a rise in ambient temperatures a bit earlier than before. I have a vague memory of Brian posting something about the ECMWF being the form horse this winter and, on having a quick check, that does seem to be true. The next few days will show how right or wrong the GFS was, but mark my words, if it turns out to have been right then we'll never hear the end of it from the wee scamp...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Carled
Have you checked the Meto updates for tonight. Even the BBC are suggesting heavy snow for far more of the UK than earlier. Something is happening and the high winds are back on the 18Z, showing twice in two days can't be dismissed.
Finally the rise are still FI, in fact FI may start at T+48 so I think this could be far from decided.
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Wed 30-01-08 0:05; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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carled, 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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lisach, yeah - just had a 5 minute model check and the 18z does seem to be back "on track" again. Quite frankly though, this is just another shout of "wolf" for me and until something grey and hairy with big teeth actually arrives on the scene causing havoc (Agenterre doesn't count) then I'm afraid I'm going to stick my fingers in my ears and go, "la, la, la, la..."
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| carled wrote: |
| lisach, yeah - just had a 5 minute model check and the 18z does seem to be back "on track" again. Quite frankly though, this is just another shout of "wolf" for me and until something grey and hairy with big teeth actually arrives on the scene causing havoc (Agenterre doesn't count) then I'm afraid I'm going to stick my fingers in my ears and go, "la, la, la, la..." |
Normally I would tend to agree but there have so many swings this week that I am sure more credit needs to be given to the GFS on this one.
ECM has been the form model as its been mild, I think when it gets colder it struggles.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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None of you experts got any analysis of the storm that hit parts of austria Sunday. Was it forecast by any weather models? Where did it come from, was it a super strong fohn wind?
http://news.google.co.uk/news?hl=en&tab=wn&ned=&q=austria+storm
Also left at least 30cms of wind compacted snow above 1000m, heavy rain below that. Seen pics on news of whole hillside where trees were wiped out, reminiscent of the 1987 weather event in SE england. Extensive power cuts, roofs blown off, many ski resorts closed for the day.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Weather benn all over the place this week.... but snowing heavily now here in Gstaad (Switzerland ) at 1000m, no rain preceding it ...
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brian
brian
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lisach, GFS (at least anecdotally) has a good record with UK northerlies. It maybe handles pressure builds in the atlantic better than it does over Scandi, for example, where it's hopeless. 
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brian
brian
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brian, hee hee your not the only person who thinks i'm mad, they all do here! But as i said before i wouldn't bet my life on it but it is interesting seeing if it does fit!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| waynos wrote: |
None of you experts got any analysis of the storm that hit parts of austria Sunday. Was it forecast by any weather models? Where did it come from, was it a super strong fohn wind?
http://news.google.co.uk/news?hl=en&tab=wn&ned=&q=austria+storm
Also left at least 30cms of wind compacted snow above 1000m, heavy rain below that. Seen pics on news of whole hillside where trees were wiped out, reminiscent of the 1987 weather event in SE england. Extensive power cuts, roofs blown off, many ski resorts closed for the day. |
I think that's what's known in weather circles as a "localised anomaly". Otherwise known as "bloody hell, where did that come from?" It is also referred to as a "toldyouso" as you just know that somewhere around the mountain (probably sitting in the back of the local bar) is a little old man with an accordian, a green hat with a feather in it and an aged dog by his ankles mumbling, "I told you so, I told you my bunions were throbbing so there was a storm coming, but would you listen to crazy old Hans? Would you heck as like, murmur, mumble, rhubarb, etc..."
Until the weather forecast models include the "toldyouso" model I'm afraid that there is little that can be done.
If you're expecting an apology from the GFS, don't hold your breath. It's still grounded and sulking in its bedroom.
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brian
brian
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waynos, we all have our local biases and mine are firmly focused on the lower Valais in Switzerland and of course, here in Scotland. So while I might notice things afoot from northern France to western Austria, I'm afraid eastern Austria is beyond my personal radar so I'm not sure if it was forecast or not.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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it's mild, foggy and grotty here. Milder than forecast locally. The odd spot of drizzle, temp above freezing at 1550m. Still, at least I didn't waste a good skiing day, driving to Geneva at 0700 this morning!
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brian
brian
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| carled wrote: |
| It's still grounded and sulking in its bedroom. |
Free the GFS one, it's not bad, just misunderstood ! 
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brian
brian
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Agenterre, not much, only a very few flakes made it south of the Rhone.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Is it too far out for me to start enquiring about probable temps in les arcs from the 9th Feb???
(Prepares to be shot down in flames  )
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brian
brian
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
we all have our local biases and mine are firmly focused on the lower Valais in Switzerland
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Probably going to the Valais for the first week of April. What will the temperature be and how much snow will fall? Oh, and should I take a helmet?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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T Bar, I would put the helmet on NOW if I were you
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| smudger wrote: |
Is it too far out for me to start enquiring about probable temps in les arcs from the 9th Feb???
(Prepares to be shot down in flames ) |
Actually smudger, amazingly enough you're in luck, but only because you're going to Les Arcs. There's a local phenomenon called the "Crédules paysannes" effect that takes effect at this time of year and lasts until late Feb, but it's highly localised and only for the Les Arcs side of the Paradiski domain. Locals think it might be something to do with the increase in "vent chaud" experienced during the traditional British half term holidays as this is when the effect is most noticeable.
The lucky side effect is that the increased levels of "vent chaud" in the valley lead to a temperature inversion that traps dry, warm air against the ionosphere, thereby causing localised perturbations in the meseonic isobars and this, in turn, forms an almost impenetrable barrier (the "À peine fuit condom" as it is colloquially known) that virtually (near as dammit, anyway) guarantees there to be a considerably higher-than-average chance of the median values of the local region's 30-year average temperatures either being exceeded or not-quite-reached with the result that the rain falling on the south-facing slopes turns to snow below the limit of the stratospheric "barrier" which, fortunately, begins at about the level of Arc 1950. So as long as you're not staying at Arc 2000, you'll be peachy.
Brian can explain this better than I can though, so ask him for clarification if you're not quite sure what I'm on about!
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brian
brian
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T Bar, so am I. I can accurately forecast the beer will be cold if you want to stop by for one ?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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brian,
Probably in a different part of the Valais unfortunately, Zermatt is currently the plan though not finalised yet, flights only booked so far.
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brian, carled, thought as much!
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