 Poster: A snowHead
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@pam w, do not get me started on snow-forecast ... 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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This thread is quickly becoming part of my daily routine! Great info again @polo, thank you.
Sounds like all could be up and running again by the time I clip in on the 14th
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Pretty grim out there today. Quite a lot of rain overnight up to about 2000m. Couple of inches of very sticky, wet snow above that. Drizzle for most of the morning. Pistes holding up ok considering but heavy and slushy.
No way I’d have been out if my son hadn’t been super keen on ski school
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@under a new name - snow forecast seems to be the “recommended” app used by a lot of people on the Morzine FB group. Their switches from whooping optimism to the depths of depression in a 12 hour period are something to behold. Yet whenever anybody asks for a decent weather app it’s always “well I find Snow-Forecast as good as anything” - which presumably means “I have SF on my phone and have never been bothered to try anything else”.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| pam w wrote: |
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Thank you once again - wonderful news for our arrival on the 14th - you're a legend!
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A legend, he would still be, even if the outlook had been worse. Sometimes in this thread the people who have taken the trouble to explain to the rest of us what might be happening have been subject to a fair bit of abuse for being "pessimistic" when what they have been is analytical and objective. Having such a detailed look (not just cherry picking the best of the model ensembles) helps underline what an imprecise science it still is, despite the mega data. Quantities of precipitation are particularly difficult but people only remember (and moan) when the skies deliver less snow (or more rain) than their fave website (such as snow-forecast) appeared to promise.
We should also remember to thank our weather gurus when they tell us it's going to be grim, and it is. |
This is a very fair point but this thread is one of the friendliest and most welcoming on the forum. It’s the polar opposite of one focusing on a particular part of western Austria.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Agree @franga - I’ve never seen any abuse on this thread. Mainly useful advice and (for me) patience in answering my daft questions.
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We've been doing the US for the last 10 years or so and found Open Snow with the meteorologist Joel Gratz to be very good, for Colorado especially.
Its all reasonably new to me on this side as its been years (apart from Tignes in December 22 and VT in Jan 22).
This place here has been a wonderful find.
Thank you all for your information - and might even bump into a few of you on the 14th!
Polo certainly deserves a beer.
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@andy from embsay, as a general site I like meteoblue. @zzz recommends meteo alpes for Morzine & environs.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I have meteo-alpes, Bergfex and a pro subscription to wepowder.
And of course, I have you lot. 
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@polo thanks for all the really useful info. We are off to Les Gets on 21st Jan - appreciate still a while away but should we be confident of white stuff??
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@andy from embsay, I subscribe to nothing but my own delusions....send it to charity, all the data is out there for free, any questions on how to read it just ask.
@Russ1447, my brother arrives 20th from the snow covered states so I really hope so.....his first time in the area. Too far of course to give any predictions, let's see what next week delivers first. There is a loose signal for another change in pattern after the 15th, an MJO driven increase in amplification, which means we should expect to see high pressure reach further north and colder air to drop down, but who knows if the alps will be on the right or wrong side of that. Just something I'm looking out for. Either way am sure there will be plenty of snow in Avoriaz which is only a short drive / bus.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@polo, this is the latest in a whole string of similar threads over the years. There has certainly been some arsey comments on previous ones and several really good weather guys have just given up.
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| franga wrote: |
| It’s the polar opposite of one focusing on a particular part of western Austria. |
Agreed - I know which thread you're talking about and - coupled which that resort's stereotype - it slightly puts me off going there!
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You know it makes sense.
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The "what snow shortage? We're all having a wonderful time here, what are you lot moaning about and it's all your own fault if you go to France" crowd are as irritating as those who insist on asking again and again what the snow conditions will be like in three weeks.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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My mate (who’s been in Morzine since 22/12) had the best day of the trip today. Quieter and found some nice snow up high.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Laughing about the comment about the particular western Austria thread… recently we have been to Morzine with friends and the Arlberg if it’s just our family. I agree this thread has been so friendly and helpful, but the other one normally is too unless the troll is about!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I'm only here for the snow. And the ECM 12z is the ideal run if anyone watching it.....NW lows x 3 in 10 days
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@polo, You're such a tease!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| My mate (who’s been in Morzine since 22/12) had the best day of the trip today. Quieter and found some nice snow up high. |
I guess it’s all relative! Conditions were some of the worst I’ve skied in 30 years. And I skied a lot in Scotland when I was younger! Today we skied from ardent over into Les Croset, mossette, cubore, abricotine, Brechaux etc. Generally stayed high until we had to come back to Lindarets to pick up junior.
weather was a lot brighter this afternoon but we’d sacked it off by then as it rained pretty much all morning. Yesterday was way better - both snow and weather.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Yeah, he’s also skied in a lot better, and would agree it’s really poor - but the point was the best day of this trip, when it’s been busy and borderline dangerous because of numbers and limited, poor snow.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Many years ago when I arrived in AVZ for my first season, the old hands told me you're lucky to be in the PdS. It's not the highest, the gnarliest, or the cliquiest, but there's great skiing and a friendly open community. That has remained true, and this perennial thread is a reflection of it  .
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Auto forecasts are not reliable, but 88cm would help
Avoriaz
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| pam w wrote: |
| The "what snow shortage? We're all having a wonderful time here, what are you lot moaning about and it's all your own fault if you go to France" crowd are as irritating as those who insist on asking again and again what the snow conditions will be like in three weeks. |
Very true, very irritating.
On a separate note, I myself arrive in Morzine 21 days from today, any idea what the snow will be like?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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GFS 18Z is good for lower parts of the Portes du Soleil - would bring a reasonable fall (20cm+) all the way down to Morzine etc. on Monday and Monday night. And maybe 50cm higher up.
The last four GFS runs have tended to increase precipitation for Sunday to Tuesday, but decrease it for later next week. Mind you, that's not necessarily a bad thing as the improvements are in the slightly more reliable timeframe, whereas later next week is still a long way off.
I wonder if it's too early to think about how much of the area will be able to reopen after this snowfall? I would hazard a guess that most runs above 1500m should be viable (except ones with rocky ground underneath), and many of them below that altitude provided temperatures are low enough for a few days of snowmaking. Subject to the forecast remaining as it currently is, of course...
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Absolutely brilliant info@polo, really enjoying learning more about forecasting.
Our first trip of the season ( ) is not for a few weeks yet, but it's always great to drop back in to this chat as it is so friendly and knowledgeable.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| denfinella wrote: |
| I wonder if it's too early to think about how much of the area will be able to reopen after this snowfall? I would hazard a guess that most runs above 1500m should be viable (except ones with rocky ground underneath), and many of them below that altitude provided temperatures are low enough for a few days of snowmaking. Subject to the forecast remaining as it currently is, of course... |
I think lower slopes that already have artificial artificial snow will be fine after the next snowfalls and some of the of the north facing pastures will also be made skiable with some snow management.
Arrived in Châtel yesterday for a long weekend and can say that looking out towards Linga is not as bad as expected from the comments on social media. There is no natural snow below 1600m or higher on south facing. However looks like there are ribbons of artificial snow below these levels to the valley on the Super Chatel and Linga slopes which have been closed to preserve them. I was here in early December and snow cannons were working all night and it seems not all has been wasted. We plan to go for a hike up Super Châtel today and will ski PLJ and Cubore sector tomorrow as should be quieter change-over day. Will report back.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| Yeah, he’s also skied in a lot better, and would agree it’s really poor - but the point was the best day of this trip, when it’s been busy and borderline dangerous because of numbers and limited, poor snow. |
So are all the reports of only two runs open grossly over exaggerated?
Or has he been heading up to Avoriaz?
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Long time lurker and occasional poster here, but this thread has been really useful! Thanks for the valuable forecasting input.
We are a group of 10 venturing to Morzine for the first time this year. Not until third week of March so far too far out to call weather conditions, but we are all well aware that spring skiing is largely dictated by having a thick based built up in early/mid winter so I have my fingers crossed for all of you heading out in the next week or so that we see a large amount of snow and some sustained cold weather.
Previously have been to 3V or Espace Killy - what a season to book a lower resort!!
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You know it makes sense.
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| Roscoe wrote: |
| andy from embsay wrote: |
| Yeah, he’s also skied in a lot better, and would agree it’s really poor - but the point was the best day of this trip, when it’s been busy and borderline dangerous because of numbers and limited, poor snow. |
So are all the reports of only two runs open grossly over exaggerated?
Or has he been heading up to Avoriaz? |
Well it depends where the reports are based. Plenty open in PLJ sector of Châtel and Avoriaz. You just need transport to get to the bottom lifts where there will be a bottle neck as it’s currently holiday season.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Feeling a bit deflated this morning as the snow chase comes to an inevitable demise . Happy to have spotted the pattern a long way out and even happier that the area will return to normal winter coverage in a few days, albeit a shame for all those that were out over the holidays. Fairplay to those who got out and made the most of it, just unlucky timing.
I didn't think the ECM forecast could get any snowier overnight but it has upped the snowfall quantities to 94cm next week. At this stage I'd be happy with half of that. Certainly the latter part of the week is susceptible to change as ECM is out on its own with the track of the next deep low towards the alps. There is some support from other models but I expect high pressure will remain too close to the western end and we'll see more moderate forecasts appear. Still a chance of some rain mid week lower down but not expecting anything too damaging, equally it may even remain dry during the temperature spike on wednesday.
So no change to the immediate outlook, starts at 1700m ish sunday afternoon, quickly dropping to lowest resort levels overnight. Monday is the main event for snow with temps dropping to -4 at 1500m on tuesday morning, so expect the cannons to run....I imagine any power saving objectives have been easily met already by not having so many lifts open lower down.
Wife said insta page mentioned not a full opening until next weekend which I find hard to believe. Can't see why there won't be a lot of runs open by tuesday. Anyway I'll be on the ground mon-tues and skinning up if that's the only way.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Roscoe, yes, Avoriaz. There’s nowt open on the Pleney side other than a beginners’ stripe at the top.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| polo wrote: |
Auto forecasts are not reliable, but 88cm would help
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Err, that's mm of rain, not cm of snow, isn't it?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Chaletbeauroc, is it not just that that site isn't smart enough to multiply by 10 when it's snow not rain forecast?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@polo, a metre of snow?! Yes please
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Roscoe, interesting name, not a Midlake reference is it?
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| Timmycb5 wrote: |
| @Roscoe, interesting name, not a Midlake reference is it? |
Nope - real name is Ross but have been called Roscoe since I was small. So just a nickname thats stuck.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Chaletbeauroc, it's the way most sites display precipitation / snow equivalence....10mm rain = 10cm snow depending on altitude. That forecast was for avoriaz so all snow.
Latest raw data from GFS 06z below. Main info here is temp at 850hpa (1500m) 7th column across, then the 2 precip columns can be added together, and ISO (freeze level) to the far right (deduct about 200m for expected snowline)
Showing about 35cm below 1500m by monday evening. WFR (short range model) is less snowy, with maybe 20cm at 1000m.
The GFS precip number in mm will be similar in cm's on snowforecast and other apps in a few hours when they get updated.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Fri 6-01-23 11:54; edited 1 time in total
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| Roscoe wrote: |
| Timmycb5 wrote: |
| @Roscoe, interesting name, not a Midlake reference is it? |
Nope - real name is Ross but have been called Roscoe since I was small. So just a nickname thats stuck. |
Oh Ok. Well there’s a song named the same as your nickname by a band called Midlake. It’s probably their best song too.
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FAQ
