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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
18z starts to let the possibility of snowfall on 09 December slide... But keeps up options on 15/16 December...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
under a new name wrote:
Ha ha lovely, not gets much better than anempty Hillend with a little snow. awesome.


Really. I can think of one or two places😀
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
MeteoCiel GFS model at 6h predicts 1 week of snowing starting from Saturday 12.12.2015 for much of the Alpine area. Let's see how the prediction will play-out...
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@zzz, in the context of living in Edinburgh?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Some signs that Scotland may get a good puke this Sat and Tues. Very windy, though, which is not so good (blows it away from the slopes).
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Think Canada's hogging all the white stuff. My son is in Revelstoke for the season and they are knee deep in it there with what they are saying is one if not the best starts to the season. Had 6 inches overnight and 3.5 feet so far this season.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Another 7 inches of rain possible for Lakeland on top of almost a month of continuous rain and storm force winds, over the next 36 hours. Shocked
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449273600
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
puplett wrote:
Think Canada's hogging all the white stuff. My son is in Revelstoke for the season and they are knee deep in it there with what they are saying is one if not the best starts to the season. Had 6 inches overnight and 3.5 feet so far this season.


There's plenty to go around right now. But British Columbia does look to be coming out on top of the snow charts at the moment. The month of December for BC and PNW could be rather promising based on recent forecast models, and if the FL stay low, and don't yo-yo up and down too much there could be several meters of snow on the slopes come Christmas week.
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Signs on both GFS and ECM this evening that there could be colder weather arriving in the Alps next weekend...
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those signs disappeared this morning.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
ECM still looking to bring in cooler weather this weekend.



GFS pushes it back to Monday.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Nice to see, let's hope it can stick around.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
That thick blue line between the Blue and the Greeny-yellow: just gotta push south by the 16th and stay there
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, Hope I'm not teaching "granny to suck eggs"... but I just spotted that there's a "voir Panel multimodèles" option on that meteociel page to display all the different models on a single page, so you can view the comparative model runs together

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=1&ech=180&size=0

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Slightly off topic but jeez! Never seen so little snow on the Stelvio at this time of year in 10 years of looking at this webcam.

http://jpeg.popso.it/webcam/webcam_online/stelviolive_04.jpg
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
fuego wrote:
those signs disappeared this morning.


back again now. Colder from next Saturday (whoever Skiclub use.. I know they use snow-forecast - depends who they use...)
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
geoffers wrote:
@nozawaonsen, Hope I'm not teaching "granny to suck eggs"... but I just spotted that there's a "voir Panel multimodèles" option on that meteociel page to display all the different models on a single page, so you can view the comparative model runs together


Oh yes! Thank you Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Specific details obviously up for grabs but definitely looking promising for more interesting weather in the Alps from mid month. Latest GFS for Alpe d'Huez below.

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snowHead I think snow forecast uses GFS. Sometimes when you think several forecasts are looking promising it's actually only one. Still, that's looking better than for a while.
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Ambleside in Cumbria has apparently received 5.5 inches of rain today. That would be enough for 5 and a half feet of snow in 24 hours. There's still another 8 hours of heavy rain to come Sad
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@Peter S, not fallen as snow higher up?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
@Peter S, not fallen as snow higher up?


Way too mild for that. 11c here in south east Scotland.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Gaza, that's a shame. Would have set the whole season up.
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Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
@Gaza, that's a shame. Would have set the whole season up.


Season for what?
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Sorry just realised you were referring to bonnie Scotland rolling eyes
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
No just Scotland but Yad Moss and Raise.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Gaza wrote:
No just Scotland but Yad Moss and Raise.


Well I've learned something new tonight Very Happy
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Gaza wrote:
No just Scotland but Yad Moss and Raise.


This is what I was referring to.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
A quick update on how things are going in the French N.Alps. Temperatures have dropped a bit but the FL is still around 2000m. It snowed a bit overnight above this altitude leaving 2-5cm of new snow on north sector slopes. Yesterday I was touring around the 7 Laux slackcountry. Conditions are better than this time last year. There's been less snow overall but the season opening dump came at least a week later than last year so it's colder and not melting as fast.



Off piste yesterday was crusty below 2000m and same thing today. This slightly north-west facing couloir at 2100 meters provided some ok skiing but the snow quality is very heterogeneous.




The snow is quite dense. On piste the slopes were wind scralped above 1800m but pretty good snow below. About 25cm of dense snow at resort level at 1500 meters on slopes not covered by snow making. It won't take a lot of skiers but at least it is a base. There's been about 10-20cm of melt/settling over the last 7 days.

I've mentioned about the risks of hard, icy snow at the moment earlier on this thread and a ski tourer fell to his death today near the summit of the Grand Pic de la Lauzière although it may be a technical error that caused the incident rather than ice as originally reported in the French press.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looks like the UK 24hr rainfall record has just been broken. That's a big deal. Honister pass which is not that far from raise ski area has apparently received nearly 14 inches of rain in 24hrs exceeding the 2009 event. that is more than half Londons annual rainfall and would be sufficient for 14 feet of snow
Shocked
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
ECM still looking to bring in cooler weather this weekend.



GFS pushes it back to Monday.




It didn't last.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Not liking that at all.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
cad99uk wrote:
Not liking that at all.


My Christmas week in the Alps and new year in the Lake District isn't exactly going to plan right now.
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Apples and oranges, I think. The first map is ECM. The second is GFS.
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@Ricklovesthepowder, wouldn't have set Scotland up at all but would have caused road closures and chaos...

The winds have been horrible so anything falling on the hills would have immediately vacated onto the A9... Twisted Evil
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duncansarmy wrote:
cad99uk wrote:
Not liking that at all.


My Christmas week in the Alps and new year in the Lake District isn't exactly going to plan right now.


Why? There are plenty of resorts with good on piste snow at the moment.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
But that situation won't last forever. There's been a lot of melt on south facing areas and there wasn't much to start with. Huge inversions have meant snow cannons working at lower altitudes with sun and much warmer temperature at altitude. Eg in Praz sur Arly at 1100m snow cannons and tree shaded north facing pistes is looking better than some higher south facing parts of the domain. conditions could change a lot in the next two weeks of course. Hopefully for the better but no guarantees.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
emwmarine wrote:
duncansarmy wrote:
cad99uk wrote:
Not liking that at all.


My Christmas week in the Alps and new year in the Lake District isn't exactly going to plan right now.


Why? There are plenty of resorts with good on piste snow at the moment.


I don't doubt that there are.
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pam w wrote:
But that situation won't last forever. There's been a lot of melt on south facing areas and there wasn't much to start with. Huge inversions have meant snow cannons working at lower altitudes with sun and much warmer temperature at altitude. Eg in Praz sur Arly at 1100m snow cannons and tree shaded north facing pistes is looking better than some higher south facing parts of the domain. conditions could change a lot in the next two weeks of course. Hopefully for the better but no guarantees.


That's interesting Pam. I wonder if cannons have been working in Morzine? I presumed it's been too warm but didn't think about them running through the night.
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Its been pretty warm and sunny in Meribel today after a hard frost, there isn't any cannons running it feels like September/October. A lot of the snow at resort level has melted away over the last few days.

It can all change in a few days though so I really wouldn't worry to much about it, you can ski down to resort level its not the best but skiable.
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